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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 10, 2021 0:30:10 GMT
I think it is between Belfast and Licorice Pizza. Both won a major best picture prize and scored best picture nominations at NBR, AFI, and Satellite. At the moment, I am going with Belfast because of how well it played at Toronto. Next week we have Critics Choice and Golden Globes.
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Post by stephen on Dec 10, 2021 0:32:49 GMT
Critical darling. Possibility of having the most nominations. Campion could win and carry it to a BP win too. I can see it mostly because there aren't a lot of alternatives. I think West Side Story (even if there is a BD split) and Licorice Pizza make more sense. has the worst Rotten Tomatoes audience scores of any of the major contenders though. All the other films are like in the 80's or 90's, and Power Of The Dog is at 63%. I don't think the film plays well enough with non-critic audiences to be a serious threat to win BP. It can get many nominations and maybe wins in other categories (acting, adapted screenplay), but I don't think it will have the kind of consensus appeal needed to win BP. The more I think about it, the more I think The Power of the Dog is going to wind up as this year's Roma: a critically adored film which will likely score major wins, but get pipped to the post for the top prize. I feel like the preferential ballot might work against it in the end. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 10, 2021 0:48:01 GMT
People on this board are kidding themselves with Licorice Pizza - it's a very fine film but it is way too minor - usually I hedge my bets and say "maybe, you never know" but I'd say there's no way that wins....I may have said this in another thread ........the only people who predict Licorice Pizza atm are the people who haven't actually seen Licorice Pizza.......  |
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Post by quetee on Dec 10, 2021 15:40:19 GMT
People on this board are kidding themselves with Licorice Pizza - it's a very fine film but it is way too minor - usually I hedge my bets and say "maybe, you never know" but I'd say there's no way that wins....I may have said this in another thread ........the only people who predict Licorice Pizza atm are the people who haven't actually seen Licorice Pizza....... You have a point but I would have said the same thing about The Shape of Water. |
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Post by quetee on Dec 10, 2021 15:43:55 GMT
I think after this weekend, WSS will be considered the frontrunner.
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Post by countjohn on Dec 10, 2021 16:04:00 GMT
I'm thinking Power of the Dog, King Richard, or Nightmare Alley. Just really am not sold on WSS even with good reviews, it's a remake of another BP winner.
But you know what, screw it, Cry Macho.
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 10, 2021 16:47:58 GMT
People on this board are kidding themselves with Licorice Pizza - it's a very fine film but it is way too minor - usually I hedge my bets and say "maybe, you never know" but I'd say there's no way that wins....I may have said this in another thread ........the only people who predict Licorice Pizza atm are the people who haven't actually seen Licorice Pizza....... You have a point but I would have said the same thing about The Shape of Water. Yeah, I got burned on the one too tbh ........I think I said something like "the Academy is voting for history and TSoW is not in any way a historic film"....... ugh...... The thing with LP is not only is it slight - and again, I liked it a lot myself - but I think it's only maybe at best PTA's 5th or 6th best film imo - like why reward him for that (?) ............... I also think it's a movie that plays to each of the coasts better than the rest of America - I'm not sure middle America will recognize themselves in this movie at all......and I kind of expect to fizzle when wide released Will be curious to see how it does when it opens wide though ......and to make this even more fncked up this year..........I think Licorice Pizza will win LAFC  |
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Post by stephen on Dec 10, 2021 16:58:10 GMT
Yeah, I got burned on the one too tbh ........I think I said something like "the Academy is voting for history and TSoW is not in any way a historic film"....... ugh...... The thing with LP is not only is it slight - and again, I liked it a lot myself - but I think it's only maybe at best PTA's 5th or 6th best film imo - like why reward him for that (?) ............... I also think it's a movie that plays to each of the coasts better than the rest of America - I'm not sure middle America will recognize themselves in this movie at all......and I kind of expect to fizzle when wide released Will be curious to see how it does when it opens wide though ......and to make this even more fncked up this year..........I think Licorice Pizza will win LAFC Even if Licorice Pizza is "minor" and "slight" in comparison to PTA's other films, it's not competing against PTA's other films this year. You know as well as I do that hardly anyone wins an Oscar for their best work, especially if there's an overdue narrative. All it has to do is be better received than the other films in contention this year, a lot of which have definite pros and cons as much as Licorice Pizza does. PTA stands a very strong shot at an Original Screenplay win this year, but there is enough reverence for him in the industry that he could parlay that into Best Director as well, even over Campion (I definitely don't think Best Director is a done deal). What gives me pause is that an acting nomination is looking tough, but if Haim and/or Cooper break in, I think that shows enough passion for it that it could very well do it. I'm not predicting it at this stage, but I think it's a top five contender and may even be higher right now. The season just began and it remains to be seen how it'll do at the box office. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 10, 2021 17:21:26 GMT
Yeah, I got burned on the one too tbh ........I think I said something like "the Academy is voting for history and TSoW is not in any way a historic film"....... ugh...... The thing with LP is not only is it slight - and again, I liked it a lot myself - but I think it's only maybe at best PTA's 5th or 6th best film imo - like why reward him for that (?) ............... I also think it's a movie that plays to each of the coasts better than the rest of America - I'm not sure middle America will recognize themselves in this movie at all......and I kind of expect to fizzle when wide released Will be curious to see how it does when it opens wide though ......and to make this even more fncked up this year..........I think Licorice Pizza will win LAFC Even if Licorice Pizza is "minor" and "slight" in comparison to PTA's other films, it's not competing against PTA's other films this year. You know as well as I do that hardly anyone wins an Oscar for their best work, especially if there's an overdue narrative. All it has to do is be better received than the other films in contention this year, a lot of which have definite pros and cons as much as Licorice Pizza does. PTA stands a very strong shot at an Original Screenplay win this year, but there is enough reverence for him in the industry that he could parlay that into Best Director as well, even over Campion (I definitely don't think Best Director is a done deal). What gives me pause is that an acting nomination is looking tough, but if Haim and/or Cooper break in, I think that shows enough passion for it that it could very well do it. I'm not predicting it at this stage, but I think it's a top five contender and may even be higher right now. The season just began and it remains to be seen how it'll do at the box office. Yeah I don't think the part in bold tbh - I think its rivals have more pros and less cons .......as for the acting nods - Haim's "problem" is that she doesn't suggest she's acting ........she "seems" like herself so there's a possibility to take her for granted.....she's adorable in the movie though. To be more positive about its "winning" odds, it ends really well and like I've said in other threads ..........and endings do matter......I'd have it top 5 also but not a real threat atm |
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Post by countjohn on Dec 10, 2021 17:51:33 GMT
Haven't seen Licorice Pizza yet but the thing with that is is I can't imagine it doing squat at the BO. It looks too oddball to have the "big movie for adults" cache that you get with House of Gucci or Nightmare Alley. It's the kind of thing that would be some tiny straight to streaming indie movie but is going to multiplexes because it's a PTA movie with Cooper/Penn in supporting roles.
Also PTA is clearly not the Academy's favorite. The Master getting snubbed in what was a fairly weak year for big BP contenders convinced me he was never going to win. Of course he likely could have won for TWBB had NCFOM not been out the same year, but that was a one time ever thing, this is not going to be TWBB. Best case scenario if the reviews are great they'll "throw it a bone" like with Phantom Thread and give it a bunch of big nods but no wins.
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Post by quetee on Dec 10, 2021 18:01:24 GMT
Haven't seen Licorice Pizza yet but the thing with that is is I can't imagine it doing squat at the BO. It looks too oddball to have the "big movie for adults" cache that you get with House of Gucci or Nightmare Alley. It's the kind of thing that would be some tiny straight to streaming indie movie but is going to multiplexes because it's a PTA movie with Cooper/Penn in supporting roles. Also PTA is clearly not the Academy's favorite. The Master getting snubbed in what was a fairly weak year for big BP contenders convinced me he was never going to win. Of course he likely could have won for TWBB had NCFOM not been out the same year, but that was a one time ever thing, this is not going to be TWBB. Best case scenario if the reviews are great they'll "throw it a bone" like with Phantom Thread and give it a bunch of big nods but no wins. It has made almost a million dollars on 4 screens. Belfast has made 6mil and it went wide already. |
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Post by countjohn on Dec 10, 2021 18:19:15 GMT
Haven't seen Licorice Pizza yet but the thing with that is is I can't imagine it doing squat at the BO. It looks too oddball to have the "big movie for adults" cache that you get with House of Gucci or Nightmare Alley. It's the kind of thing that would be some tiny straight to streaming indie movie but is going to multiplexes because it's a PTA movie with Cooper/Penn in supporting roles. Also PTA is clearly not the Academy's favorite. The Master getting snubbed in what was a fairly weak year for big BP contenders convinced me he was never going to win. Of course he likely could have won for TWBB had NCFOM not been out the same year, but that was a one time ever thing, this is not going to be TWBB. Best case scenario if the reviews are great they'll "throw it a bone" like with Phantom Thread and give it a bunch of big nods but no wins. It has made almost a million dollars on 4 screens. Belfast has made 6mil and it went wide already. Well that's also part of the reason I'm not on the Belfast train either in terms of predicting BP. We'll just have to see on Licorice Pizza, but I have a feeling a lot of those numbers are big PTA fans seeing it early. Not sure that's going to translate to a wide release in a crowded Christmas market with several other big dramas for adults like West Side Story and Nightmare Alley. TWBB is really the only PTA film to make a dent at the BO and that had a DDL performance that was contemporaneously being called the best ever and it was relevant with all the talk about greed in the lead up to the recession. There's just no "angle" like either of those things here. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 10, 2021 18:41:45 GMT
It has made almost a million dollars on 4 screens. Belfast has made 6mil and it went wide already. Well that's also part of the reason I'm not on the Belfast train either in terms of predicting BP. We'll just have to see on Licorice Pizza, but I have a feeling a lot of those numbers are big PTA fans seeing it early. Not sure that's going to translate to a wide release in a crowded Christmas market with several other big dramas for adults like West Side Story and Nightmare Alley. TWBB is really the only PTA film to make a dent at the BO and that had a DDL performance that was contemporaneously being called the best ever and it was relevant with all the talk about greed in the lead up to the recession. There's just no "angle" like either of those things here. I agree, no way it will register with general audiences. Saw a preview with my dad and said I can’t wait to see it and his reaction was basically “I have no idea what this is or is about”. |
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Post by stephen on Dec 10, 2021 18:45:34 GMT
Haven't seen Licorice Pizza yet but the thing with that is is I can't imagine it doing squat at the BO. It looks too oddball to have the "big movie for adults" cache that you get with House of Gucci or Nightmare Alley. It's the kind of thing that would be some tiny straight to streaming indie movie but is going to multiplexes because it's a PTA movie with Cooper/Penn in supporting roles. Also PTA is clearly not the Academy's favorite. The Master getting snubbed in what was a fairly weak year for big BP contenders convinced me he was never going to win. Of course he likely could have won for TWBB had NCFOM not been out the same year, but that was a one time ever thing, this is not going to be TWBB. Best case scenario if the reviews are great they'll "throw it a bone" like with Phantom Thread and give it a bunch of big nods but no wins. PTA has eight individual Oscar nominations across nine films. The man classifies as an Academy favorite, even if he hasn't won yet. Also, 2012 was a pretty strong year and there were other factors in play for The Master missing at the end, namely involving Weinstein pretty much dumping the film after Phoenix/PTA wouldn't play ball on the circuit and re-prioritizing his focus on Django and Silver Linings Playbook. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 10, 2021 19:02:29 GMT
I feel like they are going to give PTA a “there, you happy now?” Screenplay win this year like they did with Spike and go with something else in Best Picture.
Wouldn’t be surprised if Nolan got one the same way eventually.
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havok2
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Post by havok2 on Dec 10, 2021 19:06:49 GMT
WSS is bombing. It's not gonna win Picture
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havok2
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Post by havok2 on Dec 10, 2021 19:14:48 GMT
I feel like they are going to give PTA a “there, you happy now?” Screenplay win this year like they did with Spike and go with something else in Best Picture. Wouldn’t be surprised if Nolan got one the same way eventually. Yeah and even then he may (hopefully) lose |
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Post by quetee on Dec 10, 2021 20:07:52 GMT
WSS is bombing. It's not gonna win Picture Why don't we wait...oh I don't know until the movie actually opens today. |
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hilderic
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Post by hilderic on Dec 11, 2021 1:12:24 GMT
If they care about you know the people they'll pick WSS.....if they care about the circle jerk of 8 people on message boards they won't and will contunue being as "relevant" as the Grammy's  They need to pick a populist winner and they need to pick something American - no Parasite, no Belfast, no Shakespeare (even done by Americans), no remake of something the gen pop never heard of from 1946 and no arty pretense in 2021 - that crapping in the bucket .........people are delusional I think about Licorice Pizza - I really liked it ........ but come on - it's just too minor. Obviously if voting on merit I'd personally pick Power of the Dog because it's (way) better than some think and maybe you should have watched it twice because God forbid a movie challenges its audience .......but it's not a meritocracy......but it is winning director and is one of the few movies - maybe the only one - that successfully realized its risky POV - it "could" win .........but......as much as I would love that.......I doubt it
WSSSide note: there's something left field lurking to spoil that top 10 that everybody has btw - Tick .......Tick........or French Dispatch........or Lost Daughter........or Cyrano.........or (gasp!) reward Ridley for The Last Duel or possibly HoG........something odd like that......... not the same 10 movies that people keep listing are off - it's not that AFI list except for Belfast people - come on........ - PGA will throw that list out this year with something odd.......one of those "Top 10 lock movies" is going to get booted for something left field If they did care about the people, shouldn't they pick Dune? West Side Story seems to be headed towards a $10-15M opening weekend (as predicted). Unless it has an outstanding, The Greatest Showman-esque run (which is unlikely), it's not catching up with Dune ($105M total). |
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 11, 2021 15:15:01 GMT
WSS is bombing. It's not gonna win Picture Why don't we wait...oh I don't know until the movie actually opens today. The validity of Havok2's argument doesn't seem to ring true.
- Rotten Tomatoes Approval Ratings: 93% (professional film critics), 95% (audience) - IMDB rating 8.2/10 - Made the top 10 list for both AFI and NBR.
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havok2
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Post by havok2 on Dec 11, 2021 16:24:14 GMT
Why don't we wait...oh I don't know until the movie actually opens today. The validity of Havok2's argument doesn't seem to ring true.
- Rotten Tomatoes Approval Ratings: 93% (professional film critics), 95% (audience) - IMDB rating 8.2/10 - Made the top 10 list for both AFI and NBR.
None of the mentioned are guarantee of a Best Picture win. LOL at including Rotten Tomatoes. Best Picture doesn't go to outright flops. 'Why don't we wait' is a huge cope at this point. It's not gonna have good legs since everyone will tune to watch Spiderman and then Matrix instead. Maybe it could do Mary Poppins/Showman business and get a pity BP nomination. |
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Post by quetee on Dec 11, 2021 17:50:30 GMT
I mean... how can you possibly nominate Don't Look UP and ignore HOG?? At this point, it would make no sense.
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Dec 11, 2021 20:05:40 GMT
The validity of Havok2's argument doesn't seem to ring true.
- Rotten Tomatoes Approval Ratings: 93% (professional film critics), 95% (audience) - IMDB rating 8.2/10 - Made the top 10 list for both AFI and NBR.
None of the mentioned are guarantee of a Best Picture win. LOL at including Rotten Tomatoes. Best Picture doesn't go to outright flops. 'Why don't we wait' is a huge cope at this point. It's not gonna have good legs since everyone will tune to watch Spiderman and then Matrix instead. Maybe it could do Mary Poppins/Showman business and get a pity BP nomination. Nobody said it guarantees a BP but it shows audiences love it. This helps. Box Office won't matter much this year with COVID and all the streaming options. WSS will still end as the 2nd highest grossing BP nominee (behind Dune). It makes more sense as a winner than anything else right now. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 11, 2021 20:09:07 GMT
The validity of Havok2's argument doesn't seem to ring true.
- Rotten Tomatoes Approval Ratings: 93% (professional film critics), 95% (audience) - IMDB rating 8.2/10 - Made the top 10 list for both AFI and NBR.
None of the mentioned are guarantee of a Best Picture win. LOL at including Rotten Tomatoes. Best Picture doesn't go to outright flops. 'Why don't we wait' is a huge cope at this point. It's not gonna have good legs since everyone will tune to watch Spiderman and then Matrix instead. Maybe it could do Mary Poppins/Showman business and get a pity BP nomination. What you wrote here is a bit confusing and a gigantic head scratcher to me. Nobody is arguing that WSS is a guarantee to win Best Picture. Nobody. The point is pretty irrelevant. Boxoffice numbers do not mean much anymore due to the pandemic and the gravitation toward streaming services. Academy members watch the award consideration films from the comfort of their own home. They don't care about boxoffice performance. They vote on films they like. The best indication of whose going to win best picture is to look at the Guilds and who is favored to win best director or the two screenplay categories.
More over, I have no idea why you're attacking WSS to begin with. The movie just came out yesterday. The Golden Globes, Critics Choice awards, BAFTA, and Guild nominations have yet to come out. Seems very naive to dismiss WSS's chances.
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 11, 2021 20:12:01 GMT
None of the mentioned are guarantee of a Best Picture win. LOL at including Rotten Tomatoes. Best Picture doesn't go to outright flops. 'Why don't we wait' is a huge cope at this point. It's not gonna have good legs since everyone will tune to watch Spiderman and then Matrix instead. Maybe it could do Mary Poppins/Showman business and get a pity BP nomination. Nobody said it guarantees a BP but it shows audiences love it. This helps. Box Office won't matter much this year with COVID and all the streaming options. WSS will still end as the 2nd highest grossing BP nominee (behind Dune). It makes more sense as a winner than anything else right now. Wow, we ended up posting the same reply. :-) And yes, the people who saw the film have come away with an extremely positive experience. Audiences are liking it better than professional film critics, and that's saying a lot. I do not see any virtue with attacking WSS this early in the game. |
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