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Post by quetee on Dec 9, 2021 0:25:43 GMT
Last month:
Added:
The Tragedy Of Macbeth
Dropped:
House of Gucci
Dune
Winner: Belfast
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flasuss
Badass
Posts: 1,844 
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Post by flasuss on Dec 9, 2021 0:34:35 GMT
Still this Cry Macho/In The Heights non-sense?
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 9, 2021 0:42:22 GMT
I think there's only really 4 that could take the cake; Belfast, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza and West Side Story.
Sticking with Belfast for now.
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Post by Mattsby on Dec 9, 2021 0:55:07 GMT
I've been voting for Gucci all year and recently DLU - some starry showstopper after the small, depressing Nomadland. But I mean....... something less divisive, splashier in a way, and might scoop the most noms across categories - West Side Story. I'm sorry but Belfast is a very uneven flutter of a movie with an overrated ensemble, I don't see it taking over.
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Post by Miles Morales on Dec 9, 2021 1:30:04 GMT
Switching to West Side Story now. Nothing else feels right, especially after Don't Look Up got such a divisive response. WSS has excellent reviews, just the right momentum at the right time, a legendary director at helm and it's something the industry and general audiences would eat up.
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Post by quetee on Dec 9, 2021 1:47:04 GMT
Switching to West Side Story now. Nothing else feels right, especially after Don't Look Up got such a divisive response. WSS has excellent reviews, just the right momentum at the right time, a legendary director at helm and it's something the industry and general audiences would eat up. It's starting to feel like that right now because I have no clue what else to pick at this point. Nothing feels right. |
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Post by Miles Morales on Dec 9, 2021 2:25:56 GMT
Switching to West Side Story now. Nothing else feels right, especially after Don't Look Up got such a divisive response. WSS has excellent reviews, just the right momentum at the right time, a legendary director at helm and it's something the industry and general audiences would eat up. It's starting to feel like that right now because I have no clue what else to pick at this point. Nothing feels right. I can't help but think that if it wasn't rolled into the 2020 line-up, Judas and the Black Messiah would've been the defacto frontrunner for Best Picture right now. It had everything to make it an undeniable contender and would've easily destroyed Don't Look Up, Being the Ricardos and House of Gucci with little effort. |
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Post by Martin Stett on Dec 9, 2021 2:31:02 GMT
*sigh* I still have nothing. WSS, I guess.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 9, 2021 2:41:07 GMT
Well I’m finally off of Don’t Look Up. Honestly this feels so up in the air right now. West Side Story feels like it can surge with audiences with perfect timing. I’m still not ready to write off King Richard though. Also think Power of the Dog will remain in the convo and while Belfast certainly has a shot, I’m really not buying it as a BP winner. I think Licorice Pizza is 5th at best after those 4.
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morton
Based
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Post by morton on Dec 9, 2021 2:49:46 GMT
I've been voting for Gucci all year and recently DLU - some starry showstopper after the small, depressing Nomadland. But I mean....... something less divisive, splashier in a way, and might scoop the most noms across categories - West Side Story. I'm sorry but Belfast is a very uneven flutter of a movie with an overrated ensemble, I don't see it taking over. I agree. Usually the fall frontrunner survives the late releases, but I don’t think so this year. Maybe it was just me, but it felt like Belfast just came and went, at least here where it’s already mostly at one of the discount theaters, and critics won’t be there like they were for Nomadland or Moonlight. I could also see Moreno or DeBose winning now instead of Balfe. |
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Post by JangoB on Dec 9, 2021 7:28:49 GMT
Fuck if I know. It seems like pretty much every big contender has some sort of a disadvantage. Fuck it - The Power of the Dog.
And you really should've removed Macho and Heights from these polls long ago despite the troll votes.
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Post by DanQuixote on Dec 9, 2021 13:58:49 GMT
The Power of the Dog is actually doing really well on Netflix! I thought that was what was going to hurt it the most.
I’m sticking with Belfast, but West Side Story and Licorice Pizza are mighty tempting.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Dec 9, 2021 14:11:54 GMT
After voting for Don't Look Up now every single poll (I voted for Belfast in October but then changed my vote to Don't Look Up before it ended), I'm not predicting it anymore. It will probably get nominated but I don't see it winning or even being a top 5 contender. It's probably personal bias but I don't see Belfast winning either. I still they'll go for something starry or about Hollywood, so right now I'm feeling Licorice Pizza right now. It's not as starry as most of the other films but it does have Bradley Cooper and *sigh* Sean Penn, seems to be the least divisive film of Oscar season and they love PTA so maybe this will be his time?
I think West Side Story is probably #2 right now, but I don't see them awarding a remake of a previous BP winner made with relevantly few changes. And one must wonder if the Ansel Elgort backlash will actually catch fire and if so it will probably be at the height of award season.
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 9, 2021 14:22:01 GMT
If they care about you know the people they'll pick WSS.....if they care about the circle jerk of 8 people on message boards they won't and will contunue being as "relevant" as the Grammy's  They need to pick a populist winner and they need to pick something American - no Parasite, no Belfast, no Shakespeare (even done by Americans), no remake of something the gen pop never heard of from 1946 and no arty pretense in 2021 - that crapping in the bucket .........people are delusional I think about Licorice Pizza - I really liked it ........ but come on - it's just too minor. Obviously if voting on merit I'd personally pick Power of the Dog because it's (way) better than some think and maybe you should have watched it twice because God forbid a movie challenges its audience .......but it's not a meritocracy......but it is winning director and is one of the few movies - maybe the only one - that successfully realized its risky POV - it "could" win .........but......as much as I would love that.......I doubt it
WSSSide note: there's something left field lurking to spoil that top 10 that everybody has btw - Tick .......Tick........or French Dispatch........or Lost Daughter........or Cyrano.........or (gasp!) reward Ridley for The Last Duel or possibly HoG........something odd like that......... not the same 10 movies that people keep listing are off - it's not that AFI list except for Belfast people - come on........  - PGA will throw that list out this year with something odd.......one of those "Top 10 lock movies" is going to get booted for something left field |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 9, 2021 15:31:50 GMT
don't know anymore. Power of the Dog doesn't feel right anymore--but neither did Nomadland, like at all. Belfast seems to be slipping because so many people are calling it "slight", and I think that leaves Licorice Pizza and West Side Story. WSS looks to be the "event movie" of the season and hell, the '61 movie won BP so it'd be a nice full circle moment for the remake to win too and it has audience/critic support. On the other hand, Licorice Pizza is a the hot ticket item where critics are concerned and PTA is super respected and it seems to be a screenplay frontrunner. I don't know though... the thing about PoTD is that Campion is well-positioned to win there and it's the likely screenplay winner too, so this is a battle between the screenplay frontrunners with the event movie in tow a la La La Land  so yeah, sticking with Power of the DogIn the Heights |
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hilderic
Junior Member
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Post by hilderic on Dec 9, 2021 19:05:18 GMT
After all the twists and turns since Venice, I still think it'll be either Belfast or The Power of the Dog, and that Belfast has the edge.
I just don't see West Side Story winning again.
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Dec 9, 2021 20:03:05 GMT
This is a strange year. A lot of divisive films and no real front runner yet.
Right now, I only see West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, and The Power of the Dog as potential winners.
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Post by quetee on Dec 9, 2021 20:13:38 GMT
I don't understand this The Power of the Dog winning narrative.
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Dec 9, 2021 20:25:26 GMT
I don't understand this The Power of the Dog winning narrative. Critical darling. Possibility of having the most nominations. Campion could win and carry it to a BP win too. I can see it mostly because there aren't a lot of alternatives. I think West Side Story (even if there is a BD split) and Licorice Pizza make more sense. |
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Post by stephen on Dec 9, 2021 20:28:09 GMT
Jared Leto.
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Post by quetee on Dec 9, 2021 20:40:15 GMT
I don't understand this The Power of the Dog winning narrative. Critical darling. Possibility of having the most nominations. Campion could win and carry it to a BP win too. I can see it mostly because there aren't a lot of alternatives. I think West Side Story (even if there is a BD split) and Licorice Pizza make more sense. We are talking about a Netflix movie with mixed GP reception and we have no clue about the audience viewing numbers. It will drop out of the top ten soon but at least it did better than both Passing and Tick Tick Boom. pacinoyes is right, they need to go with a more populous pick this year if not then they might as well go back to announcing the winners via press release. |
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sirchuck23
Based
Bad news dawg...you don't mind if I have some of your 300 dollar a glass shit there would ya?
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Post by sirchuck23 on Dec 9, 2021 21:16:23 GMT
Critical darling. Possibility of having the most nominations. Campion could win and carry it to a BP win too. I can see it mostly because there aren't a lot of alternatives. I think West Side Story (even if there is a BD split) and Licorice Pizza make more sense. We are talking about a Netflix movie with mixed GP reception and we have no clue about the audience viewing numbers. It will drop out of the top ten soon but at least it did better than both Passing and Tick Tick Boom. pacinoyes is right, they need to go with a more populous pick this year if not then they might as well go back to announcing the winners via press release. With Taye Diggs being the announcer..on PBS  |
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sirchuck23
Based
Bad news dawg...you don't mind if I have some of your 300 dollar a glass shit there would ya?
Posts: 2,967
Likes: 5,174
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Post by sirchuck23 on Dec 9, 2021 21:17:53 GMT
I would like to second Stephen's selection of Jared Leto. It's Jared Leto's acting world and we're just fucking living in it.  |
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Post by quetee on Dec 9, 2021 21:31:49 GMT
I would like to second Stephen's selection of Jared Leto. It's Jared Leto's acting world and we're just fucking living in it.  |
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 10, 2021 0:18:37 GMT
I don't understand this The Power of the Dog winning narrative. Critical darling. Possibility of having the most nominations. Campion could win and carry it to a BP win too. I can see it mostly because there aren't a lot of alternatives. I think West Side Story (even if there is a BD split) and Licorice Pizza make more sense. has the worst Rotten Tomatoes audience scores of any of the major contenders though. All the other films are like in the 80's or 90's, and Power Of The Dog is at 63%. I don't think the film plays well enough with non-critic audiences to be a serious threat to win BP. It can get many nominations and maybe wins in other categories (acting, adapted screenplay), but I don't think it will have the kind of consensus appeal needed to win BP. |
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