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Post by iheartamyadams on Dec 8, 2021 19:03:15 GMT
CODA
DON'T LOOK UP
DUNE
KING RICHARD
LICORICE PIZZA
NIGHTMARE ALLEY
THE POWER OF THE DOG
tick, tick... BOOM!
THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
WEST SIDE STORY
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sirchuck23
Based
Bad news dawg...you don't mind if I have some of your 300 dollar a glass shit there would ya?
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Post by sirchuck23 on Dec 8, 2021 19:16:20 GMT
CODA DON'T LOOK UP DUNE KING RICHARD LICORICE PIZZA NIGHTMARE ALLEY THE POWER OF THE DOG tick, tick... BOOM! THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH WEST SIDE STORY Take out Don’t Look Up for Belfast and that’s probably the BP lineup right there. |
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Post by iheartamyadams on Dec 8, 2021 19:18:09 GMT
CODA DON'T LOOK UP DUNE KING RICHARD LICORICE PIZZA NIGHTMARE ALLEY THE POWER OF THE DOG tick, tick... BOOM! THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH WEST SIDE STORY Take out Don’t Look Up for Belfast and that’s probably the BP lineup right there. I think Nightmare Alley could end up being weaker. I’ve seen both and I’m not convinced that a film like that is going to make it into BP. DLU on the other hand, fits the critically panned/industry adored mold to a tee. It’s off to a much better start than Vice FWIW. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 8, 2021 19:30:00 GMT
Take out Don’t Look Up for Belfast and that’s probably the BP lineup right there. I think Nightmare Alley could end up being weaker. I’ve seen both and I’m not convinced that a film like that is going to make it into BP. DLU on the other hand, fits the critically panned/industry adored mold to a tee. It’s off to a much better start than Vice FWIW. I agree if he can get in the top five (likely) for Vice he can probably get in the top 10 for this. While NA is better reviewed I’m getting the idea is is VERY genre. |
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Post by quetee on Dec 8, 2021 19:30:23 GMT
Belfast won special award.
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 8, 2021 19:42:27 GMT
DLU isn't missing - that's AFI, NBR, guaranteed hit, worlds biggest movie star etc....... the appearance of Nightmare Alley is an eyebrow raising sign to one of these possibly to get the squeeze that we don't expect - that's NBR and AFI by an Oscar winning director and still over 80% RT (where it will stay?) and a potential box office hit in theaters.........also an ominous sign is Tick ......Tick......which really needed something besides Garfield who has 2 BA already iirc.........that's a bit of bad news for the Dink in BA .....
Surprised Being The Ricardos missing .....you would think that would be a vanilla toss in.........
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Post by iheartamyadams on Dec 8, 2021 19:47:57 GMT
DLU isn't missing - that's AFI, NBR, guaranteed hit, worlds biggest movie star etc....... the appearance of Nightmare Alley is an eyebrow raising sign to one of these possibly to get the squeeze that we don't expect - that's NBR and AFI by an Oscar winning director and still over 80% RT (where it will stay?) and a potential box office hit in theaters.........also an ominous sign is Tick ......Tick......which really needed something besides Garfield who has 2 BA already iirc.........that's a bit of bad news for the Dink in BA ..... Surprised Being The Ricardos missing .....you would think that would be a vanilla toss in......... Curious as to why you think NA will be a box office hit? It moved at such a slow pace.. I cannot imagine audiences being in love with the film. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 8, 2021 19:56:51 GMT
DLU isn't missing - that's AFI, NBR, guaranteed hit, worlds biggest movie star etc....... the appearance of Nightmare Alley is an eyebrow raising sign to one of these possibly to get the squeeze that we don't expect - that's NBR and AFI by an Oscar winning director and still over 80% RT (where it will stay?) and a potential box office hit in theaters.........also an ominous sign is Tick ......Tick......which really needed something besides Garfield who has 2 BA already iirc.........that's a bit of bad news for the Dink in BA ..... Surprised Being The Ricardos missing .....you would think that would be a vanilla toss in......... It moved at such a slow pace.. I cannot imagine audiences being in love with the film. Oh I don't think that's a given - but it has the potential to be. I haven't seen it (I love the book, like the original film) but so much has been made of how this ending works so well - I think it could open big and hang on to a decent run - endings matter, audiences remember and recommend films that end well. I don't think audiences wil love the film - I mean the book is one of the best books I have ever read but that's an unbelievable downer of a book........it's just I just think audiences may turn out for it .......and if the Academy avoids HoG (likely, not definite) - Nightmare Alley plays that role of starry adult genre piece that sneaks in ...... I wouldn't call it a lock to be a hit or be in the top 10 ........but there's signs for it if you look close I think ....... |
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Dec 8, 2021 20:07:38 GMT
There's a pretty strong correlation between this and the Best Picture lineup. 1-2 usually miss. Track record would probably be even better if there were 10 BP nominees this whole time.
Interesting that Don't Look Up made this list and NBR's list. Maybe McKay is critic proof.
Don't Look Up and Nightmare Alley look the weakest among this group. Maybe Coda too. I think Cyrano can sneak in late.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Dec 8, 2021 21:55:43 GMT
Nightmare Alley can be swept to a Best Picture nod via the actors branch and tech branches.
The weaker links are CODA and tick, tick... BOOM!
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Post by mrimpossible on Dec 8, 2021 22:03:08 GMT
CODA DON'T LOOK UP DUNE KING RICHARD LICORICE PIZZA NIGHTMARE ALLEY THE POWER OF THE DOG tick, tick... BOOM! THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH WEST SIDE STORY Take out Don’t Look Up for Belfast and that’s probably the BP lineup right there. I'd say Don't Look Up is above Coda and tick, tick... BOOM! |
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Post by mrimpossible on Dec 8, 2021 22:04:38 GMT
DLU isn't missing - that's AFI, NBR, guaranteed hit, worlds biggest movie star etc....... the appearance of Nightmare Alley is an eyebrow raising sign to one of these possibly to get the squeeze that we don't expect - that's NBR and AFI by an Oscar winning director and still over 80% RT (where it will stay?) and a potential box office hit in theaters.........also an ominous sign is Tick ......Tick......which really needed something besides Garfield who has 2 BA already iirc.........that's a bit of bad news for the Dink in BA ..... Surprised Being The Ricardos missing .....you would think that would be a vanilla toss in......... Curious as to why you think NA will be a box office hit? It moved at such a slow pace.. I cannot imagine audiences being in love with the film. It doesn't need to be a box-office hit. It just needs eyeballs on the television and with that cast especially Dicaprio it will. |
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Post by Miles Morales on Dec 8, 2021 22:12:41 GMT
Curious as to why you think NA will be a box office hit? It moved at such a slow pace.. I cannot imagine audiences being in love with the film. It doesn't need to be a box-office hit. It just needs eyeballs on the television and with that cast especially Dicaprio it will. He's not talking about Don't Look Up, he's talking about Nightmare Alley. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 8, 2021 23:09:26 GMT
CODA DON'T LOOK UP DUNE KING RICHARD LICORICE PIZZA NIGHTMARE ALLEY THE POWER OF THE DOG tick, tick... BOOM! THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH WEST SIDE STORY Take out Don’t Look Up for Belfast and that’s probably the BP lineup right there. Take out Nightmare Alley for Belfast and that’s probably the BP lineup right there. |
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Post by JangoB on Dec 8, 2021 23:16:45 GMT
Take out tick, tick... BOOM! for Belfast and that’s totally the BP lineup right there.
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 9, 2021 0:14:40 GMT
Here's the AFI record predicting Best Picture:
2020 - 6/10 Chicago 7, Sound of Metal, Mank, Nomadland, Minari, Judas
2019 - 7/10, 1917, Jojo, Joker, Little Woman, Marriage Story, Once, Irishman, Parasite won special prize
2018 - 5/10, A Star is Born, BlacKKKlansman, Black Panther, Green Book, The Favourite, Roma won special prize
2017 - 7/10, Call Me, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Post, Shape of Water, Three Billboards
2016 - 7/10, Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw, Hell or High Water, La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester
2015 - 6/10, Bridge of Spies, Mad Max, Room, Spotlight, The Big Short, The Martian
2014 - 6/10, American Sniper, Birdman, Boyhood, Selma, Imitation Game, Whiplash
2013 - 7/10, 12 Years, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Gravity, Her, Nebraska, Wolf
2012 - 8/10, Argo, Beasts, Django, Les Mis, Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings, Zero Dark Thirty
2011 - 7/10, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Descendants, The Help, Tree of Life, War Horse, The Artist won special prize
2010 - 8/10, 127 Hours, Black Swan, Inception, The Fighter, Kids, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone, King's Speech for Special Award
2009 - 5/10, A Serious Man, Precious, The Hurt Locker, Up, Up in the Air
They have actually been pretty much. Last year, they never honored Promising and The Father. The year before that, no Ford vs. Ferrari.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 9, 2021 0:41:06 GMT
Here's the AFI record predicting Best Picture: 2020 - 6/10 Chicago 7, Sound of Metal, Mank, Nomadland, Minari, Judas 2019 - 7/10, 1917, Jojo, Joker, Little Woman, Marriage Story, Once, Irishman, Parasite won special prize 2018 - 5/10, A Star is Born, BlacKKKlansman, Black Panther, Green Book, The Favourite, Roma won special prize 2017 - 7/10, Call Me, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Post, Shape of Water, Three Billboards 2016 - 7/10, Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw, Hell or High Water, La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester 2015 - 6/10, Bridge of Spies, Mad Max, Room, Spotlight, The Big Short, The Martian 2014 - 6/10, American Sniper, Birdman, Boyhood, Selma, Imitation Game, Whiplash 2013 - 7/10, 12 Years, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Gravity, Her, Nebraska, Wolf 2012 - 8/10, Argo, Beasts, Django, Les Mis, Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings, Zero Dark Thirty 2011 - 7/10, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Descendants, The Help, Tree of Life, War Horse, The Artist won special prize 2010 - 8/10, 127 Hours, Black Swan, Inception, The Fighter, Kids, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone, King's Speech for Special Award 2009 - 5/10, A Serious Man, Precious, The Hurt Locker, Up, Up in the Air They have actually been pretty much. Last year, they never honored Promising and The Father. The year before that, no Ford vs. Ferrari. Were either of them even eligible though?? |
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Post by quetee on Dec 9, 2021 1:21:05 GMT
Here's the AFI record predicting Best Picture: 2020 - 6/10 Chicago 7, Sound of Metal, Mank, Nomadland, Minari, Judas 2019 - 7/10, 1917, Jojo, Joker, Little Woman, Marriage Story, Once, Irishman, Parasite won special prize 2018 - 5/10, A Star is Born, BlacKKKlansman, Black Panther, Green Book, The Favourite, Roma won special prize 2017 - 7/10, Call Me, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Post, Shape of Water, Three Billboards 2016 - 7/10, Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw, Hell or High Water, La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester 2015 - 6/10, Bridge of Spies, Mad Max, Room, Spotlight, The Big Short, The Martian 2014 - 6/10, American Sniper, Birdman, Boyhood, Selma, Imitation Game, Whiplash 2013 - 7/10, 12 Years, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Gravity, Her, Nebraska, Wolf 2012 - 8/10, Argo, Beasts, Django, Les Mis, Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings, Zero Dark Thirty 2011 - 7/10, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Descendants, The Help, Tree of Life, War Horse, The Artist won special prize 2010 - 8/10, 127 Hours, Black Swan, Inception, The Fighter, Kids, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone, King's Speech for Special Award 2009 - 5/10, A Serious Man, Precious, The Hurt Locker, Up, Up in the Air They have actually been pretty much. Last year, they never honored Promising and The Father. The year before that, no Ford vs. Ferrari. So we're looking at either 3 or 4 wrong. |
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Dec 9, 2021 1:33:35 GMT
Here's the AFI record predicting Best Picture: 2020 - 6/10 Chicago 7, Sound of Metal, Mank, Nomadland, Minari, Judas 2019 - 7/10, 1917, Jojo, Joker, Little Woman, Marriage Story, Once, Irishman, Parasite won special prize 2018 - 5/10, A Star is Born, BlacKKKlansman, Black Panther, Green Book, The Favourite, Roma won special prize 2017 - 7/10, Call Me, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Post, Shape of Water, Three Billboards 2016 - 7/10, Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw, Hell or High Water, La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester 2015 - 6/10, Bridge of Spies, Mad Max, Room, Spotlight, The Big Short, The Martian 2014 - 6/10, American Sniper, Birdman, Boyhood, Selma, Imitation Game, Whiplash 2013 - 7/10, 12 Years, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Gravity, Her, Nebraska, Wolf 2012 - 8/10, Argo, Beasts, Django, Les Mis, Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings, Zero Dark Thirty 2011 - 7/10, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Descendants, The Help, Tree of Life, War Horse, The Artist won special prize 2010 - 8/10, 127 Hours, Black Swan, Inception, The Fighter, Kids, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone, King's Speech for Special Award 2009 - 5/10, A Serious Man, Precious, The Hurt Locker, Up, Up in the Air They have actually been pretty much. Last year, they never honored Promising and The Father. The year before that, no Ford vs. Ferrari. So we're looking at either 3 or 4 wrong. Not necessarily. There are 10 nominees for Oscar BP this year. The last time that happened was back in 2010. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 9, 2021 1:37:46 GMT
Yeah exactly, that stat doesn't hold much weight considering the amount of BP nominees fluctuated all decade.
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 9, 2021 2:46:35 GMT
Here's the AFI record predicting Best Picture: 2020 - 6/10 Chicago 7, Sound of Metal, Mank, Nomadland, Minari, Judas 2019 - 7/10, 1917, Jojo, Joker, Little Woman, Marriage Story, Once, Irishman, Parasite won special prize 2018 - 5/10, A Star is Born, BlacKKKlansman, Black Panther, Green Book, The Favourite, Roma won special prize 2017 - 7/10, Call Me, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Post, Shape of Water, Three Billboards 2016 - 7/10, Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw, Hell or High Water, La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester 2015 - 6/10, Bridge of Spies, Mad Max, Room, Spotlight, The Big Short, The Martian 2014 - 6/10, American Sniper, Birdman, Boyhood, Selma, Imitation Game, Whiplash 2013 - 7/10, 12 Years, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Gravity, Her, Nebraska, Wolf 2012 - 8/10, Argo, Beasts, Django, Les Mis, Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings, Zero Dark Thirty 2011 - 7/10, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Descendants, The Help, Tree of Life, War Horse, The Artist won special prize 2010 - 8/10, 127 Hours, Black Swan, Inception, The Fighter, Kids, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone, King's Speech for Special Award 2009 - 5/10, A Serious Man, Precious, The Hurt Locker, Up, Up in the Air They have actually been pretty much. Last year, they never honored Promising and The Father. The year before that, no Ford vs. Ferrari. Were either of them even eligible though?? I think so. Even if they are considered "not-American", they could have received an honorable mention. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 9, 2021 2:52:22 GMT
Yeah exactly, that stat doesn't hold much weight considering the amount of BP nominees fluctuated all decade. There's been anywhere between 7 to 10 nominees. Last year, they had 8 nominees and 6 of them were named Best Picture by AFI. The fact we're going to 10 straight up, means we'll probably see 2-3 misses at worse.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 9, 2021 3:01:44 GMT
Yeah exactly, that stat doesn't hold much weight considering the amount of BP nominees fluctuated all decade. There's been anywhere between 7 to 10 nominees. Last year, they had 8 nominees and 6 of them were named Best Picture by AFI. The fact we're going to 10 straight up, means we'll probably see 2-3 misses at worse.
With contenders flopping and none of the foreign contenders being seemingly that strong, I agree with most people in this thread in that there will only be one difference. What are your BP predictions right now? |
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sirchuck23
Based
Bad news dawg...you don't mind if I have some of your 300 dollar a glass shit there would ya?
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Post by sirchuck23 on Dec 9, 2021 4:55:40 GMT
Most important thing is that if you take out one of the movies in AFI’s top 10 and replace it with Belfast, that’s probably your BP lineup right there.
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 9, 2021 6:10:18 GMT
How the fuck did Don't Look Up get on this?  It's currently sitting on 59% on Rotten Tomatoes. With 66 reviews, which is a decent enough amount to suggest it might end up staying in the Rotten range. I wonder if the early overhype from pundits (many of whom have a vested interest in promoting certain Awards contenders) acting like it was the new Dr Strangelove (  ) influenced the people who put this list together. I suspect if they waited for the reviews to be out first, it wouldn't have gotten anywhere near this list. Awards season is a murky business. |
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) influenced the people who put this list together. I suspect if they waited for the reviews to be out first, it wouldn't have gotten anywhere near this list.