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Post by JangoB on Dec 9, 2021 7:39:44 GMT
How the fuck did Don't Look Up get on this?  It's currently sitting on 59% on Rotten Tomatoes. With 66 reviews, which is a decent enough amount to suggest it might end up staying in the Rotten range. I wonder if the early overhype from pundits (many of whom have a vested interest in promoting certain Awards contenders) acting like it was the new Dr Strangelove (  ) influenced the people who put this list together. I suspect if they waited for the reviews to be out first, it wouldn't have gotten anywhere near this list. Awards season is a murky business. It got here the same way it'll get in BP - big names, relevance, etc. These aren't critics and their lists pretty much always reflect the biggest BP contenders of each year. Which is especially evident by their Special Award section which seems to be created solely to include a BP contender which couldn't get in the main list on some technicality  |
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 9, 2021 7:50:34 GMT
How the fuck did Don't Look Up get on this? It's currently sitting on 59% on Rotten Tomatoes. With 66 reviews, which is a decent enough amount to suggest it might end up staying in the Rotten range. I wonder if the early overhype from pundits (many of whom have a vested interest in promoting certain Awards contenders) acting like it was the new Dr Strangelove ( ) influenced the people who put this list together. I suspect if they waited for the reviews to be out first, it wouldn't have gotten anywhere near this list. Awards season is a murky business. It got here the same way it'll get in BP - big names, relevance, etc. These aren't critics and their lists pretty much always reflect the biggest BP contenders of each year. Which is especially evident by their Special Award section which seems to be created solely to include a BP contender which couldn't get in the main list on some technicality Honestly, if it stays on that Rotten score or below, I don't think BP will happen. As someone said on a different thread, people don't really pay much attention to Metacritic outside of people who really focus on awards races and critics. But Rotten Tomatoes is a juggernaut and it's influence goes beyond a niche crowd, unlike Metacritic. People notice if a film has a fresh or Rotten score. The resulting negative PR of the film having a Rotten score will likely sink it's BP chances, imho. I mean, stranger things have happened ( Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close being nominated for Best Picture despite being panned. But that was still conventional Oscarbaiting, not a comedy/satire). But I can't see why the Academy would go for a film like that if the acclaim isn't there. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 9, 2021 12:53:18 GMT
There's been anywhere between 7 to 10 nominees. Last year, they had 8 nominees and 6 of them were named Best Picture by AFI. The fact we're going to 10 straight up, means we'll probably see 2-3 misses at worse.
With contenders flopping and none of the foreign contenders being seemingly that strong, I agree with most people in this thread in that there will only be one difference. What are your BP predictions right now?
1. BELFAST 2. LICORICE PIZZA 3. KING RICHARD 4. DUNE 5. THE POWER OF THE DOG 6. THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH 7. WEST SIDE STORY 8. TICK TICK....BOOM! 9. NIGHTMARE ALLEY 10. CODA
Belfast #1 because it won Toronto. Licorice Pizza #2 because it won NBR. Both are pretty even in my book. King Richard #3 because of Will Smith. I see him winning best actor...finally. Best Actor winners have pretty much been attached to Best Picture nominees. I also saw that the Satellite awards nominated King Richard for director and screenplay, which is a great sign. Dune because it is an epic adventure and scored best picture honors at AFI, NBR, and Satellite awards. TPOTD and TTOM won directing/screenplay honors at the NBR awards and received AFI best picture honors.
The last four to me are in wildcard territory for me. I am putting them up their based on fingerprints. Spielberg for WWS. Miranda and Garfield for TTB!. Del Toro for NA. CODA (screenplay, acting attention, AFI honors) is now in my 10th spot due to the questionable reviews of Don't Look Up. SPENCER (Stewart, Satellite BP nominee), and THE LOST DAUGHTER (Colman, Gyllenhaal, Satellite BP nominee) are in the mix too. I can see those sneaking into the top 10.
C'MON C'MON, PARALLEL MOTHERS, A HERO, BEING THE RICARDOS, and the two Ridley Scott films are my dark horses.
How about you?
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 9, 2021 13:54:31 GMT
With contenders flopping and none of the foreign contenders being seemingly that strong, I agree with most people in this thread in that there will only be one difference. What are your BP predictions right now?
1. BELFAST 2. LICORICE PIZZA 3. KING RICHARD 4. DUNE 5. THE POWER OF THE DOG 6. THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH 7. WEST SIDE STORY 8. TICK TICK....BOOM! 9. DON'T LOOK UP 10. NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Belfast #1 because it won Toronto. Licorice Pizza #2 because it won NBR. Both are pretty even in my book. King Richard #3 because of Will Smith. I see him winning best actor...finally. Best Actor winners have pretty much been attached to Best Picture nominees. I also saw that the Satellite awards nominated King Richard for director and screenplay, which is a great sign. Dune because it is an epic adventure and scored best picture honors at AFI, NBR, and Satellite awards. TPOTD and TTOM won directing/screenplay honors at the NBR awards and received AFI best picture honors.
The last four to me are in wildcard territory for me. I am putting them up their based on fingerprints. Spielberg for WWS. Miranda and Garfield for TTB!. McKay for DLU. Del Toro for NA. CODA (screenplay, acting attention, AFI honors), SPENCER (Stewart, Satellite BP nominee), and THE LOST DAUGHTER (Colman, Gyllenhaal, Satellite BP nominee) are in the mix too. I can see those sneaking into the top 10.
C'MON C'MON, PARALLEL MOTHERS, A HERO, BEING THE RICARDOS, and the two Ridley Scott films are my dark horses.
How about you?
Same 10 as you, except CODA instead of Nightmare Alley. Which is funny because you were originally a lot higher on CODA's chances than I was. West Side Story at #7 is waayyyy too low. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 9, 2021 22:48:57 GMT
1. BELFAST 2. LICORICE PIZZA 3. KING RICHARD 4. DUNE 5. THE POWER OF THE DOG 6. THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH 7. WEST SIDE STORY 8. TICK TICK....BOOM! 9. DON'T LOOK UP 10. NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Belfast #1 because it won Toronto. Licorice Pizza #2 because it won NBR. Both are pretty even in my book. King Richard #3 because of Will Smith. I see him winning best actor...finally. Best Actor winners have pretty much been attached to Best Picture nominees. I also saw that the Satellite awards nominated King Richard for director and screenplay, which is a great sign. Dune because it is an epic adventure and scored best picture honors at AFI, NBR, and Satellite awards. TPOTD and TTOM won directing/screenplay honors at the NBR awards and received AFI best picture honors.
The last four to me are in wildcard territory for me. I am putting them up their based on fingerprints. Spielberg for WWS. Miranda and Garfield for TTB!. McKay for DLU. Del Toro for NA. CODA (screenplay, acting attention, AFI honors), SPENCER (Stewart, Satellite BP nominee), and THE LOST DAUGHTER (Colman, Gyllenhaal, Satellite BP nominee) are in the mix too. I can see those sneaking into the top 10.
C'MON C'MON, PARALLEL MOTHERS, A HERO, BEING THE RICARDOS, and the two Ridley Scott films are my dark horses.
How about you?
Same 10 as you, except CODA instead of Nightmare Alley. Which is funny because you were originally a lot higher on CODA's chances than I was. West Side Story at #7 is waayyyy too low. For the record, I just saw the reviews for DLU. I changed my mind, and went with CODA instead.
On the 13th, we're going to have the Golden Globes and Critics Choice nominations. My top 10 probably be different. I am looking forward to seeing West Side Story. Love Spielberg and musicals. so great combo for me.
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 10, 2021 0:08:14 GMT
I think an eye should still be kept open for Being The Ricardos as a Best Picture Spoiler. Kinda depends on how much audiences embrace it, but it's holding steady at around 70% on Rotten Tomatoes (with 80 + reviews). Which is respectable. Not amazing, but not terrible either.
I can see AMPAS members going for it, with Sorkin's snappy dialogue and it being about the industry. It could really appeal to a lot of older voters. Might not happen, but the reviews are overall still decent enough that it can't be totally counted out. Especially in a field of 10.
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 10, 2021 1:23:36 GMT
I think an eye should still be kept open for Being The Ricardos as a Best Picture Spoiler. Kinda depends on how much audiences embrace it, but it's holding steady at around 70% on Rotten Tomatoes (with 80 + reviews ). Which is respectable. Not amazing, but not terrible either. I can see AMPAS members going for it, with Sorkin's snappy dialogue and it being about the industry. It could really appeal to a lot of older voters. Might not happen, but the reviews are overall still decent enough that it can't be totally counted out. Especially in a field of 10. Lead performances tend to get attached to Best Picture nominees. If Kidman's performance continues to gain steam, then we might see BTR getting into Best Picture.
Last season, 6 out of the 8 Best Picture nominees had nominations for lead actor/actress. Judas and Chicago had supporting nominations.
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 10, 2021 3:25:48 GMT
1. BELFAST 2. LICORICE PIZZA 3. KING RICHARD 4. DUNE 5. THE POWER OF THE DOG 6. THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH 7. WEST SIDE STORY 8. TICK TICK....BOOM! 9. DON'T LOOK UP 10. NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Belfast #1 because it won Toronto. Licorice Pizza #2 because it won NBR. Both are pretty even in my book. King Richard #3 because of Will Smith. I see him winning best actor...finally. Best Actor winners have pretty much been attached to Best Picture nominees. I also saw that the Satellite awards nominated King Richard for director and screenplay, which is a great sign. Dune because it is an epic adventure and scored best picture honors at AFI, NBR, and Satellite awards. TPOTD and TTOM won directing/screenplay honors at the NBR awards and received AFI best picture honors.
The last four to me are in wildcard territory for me. I am putting them up their based on fingerprints. Spielberg for WWS. Miranda and Garfield for TTB!. McKay for DLU. Del Toro for NA. CODA (screenplay, acting attention, AFI honors), SPENCER (Stewart, Satellite BP nominee), and THE LOST DAUGHTER (Colman, Gyllenhaal, Satellite BP nominee) are in the mix too. I can see those sneaking into the top 10.
C'MON C'MON, PARALLEL MOTHERS, A HERO, BEING THE RICARDOS, and the two Ridley Scott films are my dark horses.
How about you?
Same 10 as you, except CODA instead of Nightmare Alley. Which is funny because you were originally a lot higher on CODA's chances than I was. West Side Story at #7 is waayyyy too low. One more thing: This year, I get to see if my best picture algorithm continues to be accurate.
Here's my formula: 1. Did the film win the PGA, DGA, or WGA award?
Since the creation of the PGA awards in 1989, no film has won Best Picture without winning the PGA, DGA, or WGA award.
2. Did the film win multiple major guild awards from the PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA, and ACE awards? Since the creation of the PGA awards in 1989, no film has won Best Picture without winning at least two major guild awards.
3. Did the film win the PGA, DGA, and SAG Ensemble award? Birdman, The King's Speech, Slumdog, No Country, Return of the King, Chicago, and American Beauty won all three, and took home Best Picture. Apollo 13 is the only exception.
4. Did the film get nominated for directing, writing, and editing? Green Book, Birdman, and Argo are the only films to win Best Picture without scoring all three nominations.
5. Did the film score any acting nominations? Parasite, Slumdog, and Return of the King are the only films to win Best Picture without scoring any acting nominations.
You get one point for each question correct. If you don't answer yes to the first two, you're eliminated.
Tiebreaker #1 - Did the film win the PGA, DGA, or SAG Ensemble award?
Tiebreaker #2 - Which film scored the most major Oscar nominations?
We're talking about picture, director, acting, writing, and editing categories.
Tiebreaker #3 - Which film won the most major critics circle awards? Critics Choice, NBR, NSFC, NY, and LA film critics awards.
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Post by quetee on Dec 10, 2021 3:32:01 GMT
Same 10 as you, except CODA instead of Nightmare Alley. Which is funny because you were originally a lot higher on CODA's chances than I was. West Side Story at #7 is waayyyy too low. One more thing: This year, I get to see if my best picture algorithm continues to be accurate.
Here's my formula: 1. Did the film win the PGA, DGA, or WGA award?
Since the creation of the PGA awards in 1989, no film has won Best Picture without winning the PGA, DGA, or WGA award.
2. Did the film win multiple major guild awards from the PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA, and ACE awards? Since the creation of the PGA awards in 1989, no film has won Best Picture without winning at least two major guild awards.
3. Did the film win the PGA, DGA, and SAG Ensemble award? Birdman, The King's Speech, Slumdog, No Country, Return of the King, Chicago, and American Beauty won all three, and took home Best Picture. Apollo 13 is the only exception.
4. Did the film get nominated for directing, writing, and editing? Green Book, Birdman, and Argo are the only films to win Best Picture without scoring all three nominations.
5. Did the film score any acting nominations? Parasite, Slumdog, and Return of the King are the only films to win Best Picture without scoring any acting nominations.
You get one point for each question correct. If you don't answer yes to the first two, you're eliminated.
Tiebreaker #1 - Did the film win the PGA, DGA, or SAG Ensemble award?
Tiebreaker #2 - Which film scored the most major Oscar nominations?
We're talking about picture, director, acting, writing, and editing categories.
Tiebreaker #3 - Which film won the most major critics circle awards? Critics Choice, NBR, NSFC, NY, and LA film critics awards.
how long has it been accurate? |
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Post by iheartamyadams on Dec 10, 2021 8:35:49 GMT
I think an eye should still be kept open for Being The Ricardos as a Best Picture Spoiler. Kinda depends on how much audiences embrace it, but it's holding steady at around 70% on Rotten Tomatoes (with 80 + reviews ). Which is respectable. Not amazing, but not terrible either. I can see AMPAS members going for it, with Sorkin's snappy dialogue and it being about the industry. It could really appeal to a lot of older voters. Might not happen, but the reviews are overall still decent enough that it can't be totally counted out. Especially in a field of 10. I could see why people would entertain the idea of a BP nom, but I have it pegged at the Trumbo of this race. SAG over performance and not much juice elsewhere. It’s already missed AFI + NBR.. it will need to get into PGA to have a legitimate shot at BP (both of Sorkin’s previous Directorial efforts made it here FWIW) Kidman alone would possibly be enough to drag it into BP if she were the acting frontrunner, but unlikely as filler or a fringe contender. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 10, 2021 10:13:14 GMT
I think an eye should still be kept open for Being The Ricardos as a Best Picture Spoiler. Kinda depends on how much audiences embrace it, but it's holding steady at around 70% on Rotten Tomatoes (with 80 + reviews ). Which is respectable. Not amazing, but not terrible either. I can see AMPAS members going for it, with Sorkin's snappy dialogue and it being about the industry. It could really appeal to a lot of older voters. Might not happen, but the reviews are overall still decent enough that it can't be totally counted out. Especially in a field of 10. I could see why people would entertain the idea of a BP nom, but I have it pegged at the Trumbo of this race. SAG over performance and not much juice elsewhere. It’s already missed AFI + NBR.. it will need to get into PGA to have a legitimate shot at BP (both of Sorkin’s previous Directorial efforts made it here FWIW) Kidman alone would possibly be enough to drag it into BP if she were the acting frontrunner, but unlikely as filler or a fringe contender. It's way too early to declare Kidman as a fringe or filler contender. I think she can still win (not saying she will, but I don't think it's off the table right now). Her reviews remind me somewhat of Renee Zellweger's in Judy. A lot of raves and majority praise, but some dissenters as well. Both playing Hollywood icons. Nobody seems to remember the pans or negative reviews Zellweger got when she won the Oscar though. If people were hyper-focused on Zellweger's negative notices like they are now trying to with Kidman , they could easily convince themselves Zellweger was a "fringe" or filler contender (as opposed to the eventual winner) because not everyone bought her performance as Garland. "Zellweger is unconvincing as Judy Gardland "
www.irishtimes.com/culture/film/judy-review-ren%C3%A9e-zellweger-is-unconvincing-as-judy-garland-1.4036289
"Zellweger's affected mannerisms become too distracting and overshadow everything around her"
www.rogerebert.com/reviews/judy-movie-review-2019
"Zellweger...a curious and dubious choice, she squints her eyes in terminal grimace, while pouting, posing and pursing her lips like someone who accidentally swallowed a spoonful of turpentine "
observer.com/2019/09/judy-movie-review-renee-zellweger-rex-reed/
"The actress seldom rises above a tribute act"
chicago.suntimes.com/2019/9/25/20882126/judy-review-renee-zellweger-garland-movie-film-biopic
"Zellweger's performance is all surface"
www.slantmagazine.com/film/review-judy-finds-a-paint-by-numbers-drag-revue-at-the-end-of-the-rainbow/
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 10, 2021 12:38:06 GMT
One more thing: This year, I get to see if my best picture algorithm continues to be accurate.
Here's my formula: 1. Did the film win the PGA, DGA, or WGA award?
Since the creation of the PGA awards in 1989, no film has won Best Picture without winning the PGA, DGA, or WGA award.
2. Did the film win multiple major guild awards from the PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA, and ACE awards? Since the creation of the PGA awards in 1989, no film has won Best Picture without winning at least two major guild awards.
3. Did the film win the PGA, DGA, and SAG Ensemble award? Birdman, The King's Speech, Slumdog, No Country, Return of the King, Chicago, and American Beauty won all three, and took home Best Picture. Apollo 13 is the only exception.
4. Did the film get nominated for directing, writing, and editing? Green Book, Birdman, and Argo are the only films to win Best Picture without scoring all three nominations.
5. Did the film score any acting nominations? Parasite, Slumdog, and Return of the King are the only films to win Best Picture without scoring any acting nominations.
You get one point for each question correct. If you don't answer yes to the first two, you're eliminated.
Tiebreaker #1 - Did the film win the PGA, DGA, or SAG Ensemble award?
Tiebreaker #2 - Which film scored the most major Oscar nominations?
We're talking about picture, director, acting, writing, and editing categories.
Tiebreaker #3 - Which film won the most major critics circle awards? Critics Choice, NBR, NSFC, NY, and LA film critics awards.
how long has it been accurate? Except for years 1995 and 1997. 100% accuracy under the preferential ballot system. Shapespeare In Love, Crash and Million Dollar Baby (the so-called surprise winners) did come up on top too.
Nomadland (2020), Green Book (2018), and The Shape of Water (2017) won it on the first two questions. Parasite and Jojo Rabbit went into tiebreaker mode, and tiebreaker #1 broke the tie. Moonlight (2016) went 5/5. La La Land went 4/5. Spotlight and The Big Short went into tiebreaker mode, and Spotlight won tiebreaker #2.
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Post by quetee on Dec 10, 2021 15:39:26 GMT
how long has it been accurate? Except for years 1995 and 1997. 100% accuracy under the preferential ballot system. Shapespeare In Love, Crash and Million Dollar Baby (the so-called surprise winners) did come up on top too.
Nomadland (2020), Green Book (2018), and The Shape of Water (2017) won it on the first two questions. Parasite and Jojo Rabbit went into tiebreaker mode, and tiebreaker #1 broke the tie. Moonlight (2016) went 5/5. La La Land went 4/5. Spotlight and The Big Short went into tiebreaker mode, and Spotlight won tiebreaker #2.
Just looking over your list, my guess right now is that West Side Story, The Power of the Dog and Licorice Pizza will check off those boxes. |
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Post by iheartamyadams on Dec 10, 2021 16:32:20 GMT
I personally think that Kidman has been more panned and that the pans are much more vicious than you’re letting on, but that’s neither here nor there. The biggest issue is the difference in perceptions of these films and performances. Performance reviews weren’t even a big part of the equation with Zellwegger. She was THE frontrunner out of festivals, film reviews at 82% RT/67 MC were deemed good enough, and no one else was even close according to pundits. Her win narrative was cemented when the film went onto be a box office hit. The trajectory with this is completely different. It was ridiculed and mocked for months, pundits suggested that it was actually good, and then reviews were significantly worse than early buzz let on.. there’s a collective “we were right!” sort of buzz going on here whether deserved or not.. the stench of failure is there. Kidman at her buzziest was a distant second to Stewart per pundits, and she’s surely going to drop now. Another issue is that Gaga now has more winning buzz, Chastain has a much more acclaimed performance and transformative role, ect. Kidman is now squarely in the mix with the other bait fails, with nothing really making her stand out from the pack. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 10, 2021 22:26:14 GMT
Just looking over your list, my guess right now is that West Side Story, The Power of the Dog and Licorice Pizza will check off those boxes. It is hard to tell at the moment, but I can definitely see those films and Belfast checking all those boxes.
I hope my formula makes sense. Feel free to test it out to see if I missed any seasons. My formula revolves around Guilds and major Oscar nominations.
The Shape of Water didn't get nominated at the SAG awards for best ensemble (hadn't happened since Braveheart), but its other contenders were Three Billboards (didn't win the PGA or DGA, missing a directing nomination), Get Out (no editing, only won the WGA), Call Me By Your name (no editing, directing, or DGA nod) were far worse off.
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) influenced the people who put this list together. I suspect if they waited for the reviews to be out first, it wouldn't have gotten anywhere near this list.
