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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 16, 2021 13:43:33 GMT
Thinking I’ll be pivoting to King Richard after the Don’t Look Up reactions come out. I’m thinking it’s easily ahead of Power of the Dog and probably leapfrogs Belfast.  |
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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 16, 2021 13:51:21 GMT
Thinking I’ll be pivoting to King Richard after the Don’t Look Up reactions come out. I’m thinking it’s easily ahead of Power of the Dog and probably leapfrogs Belfast. You really think a middlebrow sports biopic will win BP? Nobody asked me - but is that what King Richard is though ............or is it a moving and crowd pleasing family drama? Like people are putting Licorice Pizza for example way too high - top 5 even - too high imo for a pic which may not do much above the line - just off of screenplay raves (I don't know how Haim is a top 5 Oscar contender as of right now - not with that contending BA crew - maybe she will grow into that kind of threat). I mean nobody dismisses that as a "teen flick" - when even people who like it even say it's messy and divisive and odd........but King Richard is apparently in no way divisive at all - it has the most audience awards (but importantly not Toronto I know) and Smith is dragging everything up : (maybe) Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress - (win?) maybe director along on his victory lap / coronantion (if he can just STFU)........he's already dragged this alone in Best Pic contention when we used to say on here "his pic may not get nominated" just weeks ago  Like maybe you're right but there's nothing about the reaction that sugggests it's middle-brow - it sounds more like it's rather damn likable with a big star in the year that needs to declare that commercial movies are back baby...... On the other hand it's hard to know how much Smith can drag people and if this movie doesn't get dinged in some negative campaigning which is possible.....maybe even likely .......to win the KR campaign has to be really shrewd ....... |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 16, 2021 13:54:58 GMT
pacinoyes - You know how people are... A film underperforms at the box office: "Oh, she's done." A film gets a standing ovation at a random screening: "Oh, she's winning." It goes on and on until the precursors solidify the top contenders.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 16, 2021 13:58:54 GMT
pacinoyes - You know how people are... A film underperforms at the box office: "Oh, she's done." A film gets a standing ovation at a random screening: "Oh, she's winning." It goes on an on until the precursors solidify the top contenders. You could just tag me  |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 16, 2021 14:04:23 GMT
pacinoyes - You know how people are... A film underperforms at the box office: "Oh, she's done." A film gets a standing ovation at a random screening: "Oh, she's winning." It goes on an on until the precursors solidify the top contenders. You could just tag me You're not the only one! |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Nov 16, 2021 14:06:42 GMT
Thinking I’ll be pivoting to King Richard after the Don’t Look Up reactions come out. I’m thinking it’s easily ahead of Power of the Dog and probably leapfrogs Belfast. You really think a middlebrow sports biopic will win BP? Not really how I’d describe it. I also think it will be one of the most crowd pleasing movies of the year and will rank high on everyone’s ballots giving it an advantage with the preferential system. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Nov 16, 2021 14:07:53 GMT
Thinking I’ll be pivoting to King Richard after the Don’t Look Up reactions come out. I’m thinking it’s easily ahead of Power of the Dog and probably leapfrogs Belfast. Basically think it’s just going to be almost universally well liked in be in the top 3 on most ballots. |
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Post by JangoB on Nov 16, 2021 14:08:02 GMT
You really think a middlebrow sports biopic will win BP? Nobody asked me - but is that what King Richard is though ............or is it a moving and crowd pleasing family drama? Like people are putting Licorice Pizza for example way too high - top 5 even - too high imo for a pic which may not do much above the line - just off of screenplay raves (I don't know how Haim is a top 5 Oscar contender as of right now - not with that contending BA crew - maybe she will grow into that kind of threat). I mean nobody dismisses that as a "teen flick" - when even people who like it even say it's messy and divisive and odd........but King Richard is apparently in no way divisive at all - it has the most audience awards (but importantly not Toronto I know) and Smith is dragging everything up : (maybe) Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress - (win?) maybe director along on his victory lap / coronantion (if he can just STFU)........he's already dragged this alone in Best Pic contention when we used to say on here "his pic may not get nominated" just weeks ago Like maybe you're right but there's nothing about the reaction the sugggests it's middle-brow - it sounds more like it's rather damn likable with a big star in the year that needs to declare that commercial movies are back baby...... On the other hand it's hard to know how much Smith can drag people and if this movie doesn't get dinged in some negative campaigning which is possible.....maybe even likely .......to win the KR campaign has to really shrewd ....... Yes, it is a crowd-pleasing family drama but it's still a sports biopic too and I kinda think that this genre is a bit too specific for the whole Academy to rally behind a representative of one. When's the last time a sports biopic won BP? I just don't see it. Licorice Pizza isn't dismissed as a teen flick because of its (supposed) strong directorial stamp and exactly because of its oddities - all of that makes it stand out from the crowd of your typical teen flicks. King Richard is described as a lovable and rousing crowd picture but I don't really see any reactions that'd indicate that it somehow stands out from its genre, be it some sort of a strong artistic POV or perhaps some notable aesthetic choices. That's why I said middlebrow - I'm not dismissing it in that way, I'm just saying that it's (again, according to what I've read about it) an easily accessible (or, as you said, likeable) and not particularly artistically interesting mainstream sports film. Looking at the Academy's choices as of late, it's really hard for me to picture it as a BP winner at all. A nominee though? Sure. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Nov 16, 2021 14:09:57 GMT
Nobody asked me - but is that what King Richard is though ............or is it a moving and crowd pleasing family drama? Like people are putting Licorice Pizza for example way too high - top 5 even - too high imo for a pic which may not do much above the line - just off of screenplay raves (I don't know how Haim is a top 5 Oscar contender as of right now - not with that contending BA crew - maybe she will grow into that kind of threat). I mean nobody dismisses that as a "teen flick" - when even people who like it even say it's messy and divisive and odd........but King Richard is apparently in no way divisive at all - it has the most audience awards (but importantly not Toronto I know) and Smith is dragging everything up : (maybe) Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress - (win?) maybe director along on his victory lap / coronantion (if he can just STFU)........he's already dragged this alone in Best Pic contention when we used to say on here "his pic may not get nominated" just weeks ago Like maybe you're right but there's nothing about the reaction the sugggests it's middle-brow - it sounds more like it's rather damn likable with a big star in the year that needs to declare that commercial movies are back baby...... On the other hand it's hard to know how much Smith can drag people and if this movie doesn't get dinged in some negative campaigning which is possible.....maybe even likely .......to win the KR campaign has to really shrewd ....... Yes, it is a crowd-pleasing family drama but it's still a sports biopic too and I kinda think that this genre is a bit too specific for the whole Academy to rally behind a representative of one. When's the last time a sports biopic won BP? I just don't see it. Licorice Pizza isn't dismissed as a teen flick because of its (supposed) strong directorial stamp and exactly because of its oddities - all of that makes it stand out from the crowd of your typical teen flicks. King Richard is described as a lovable and rousing crowd picture but I don't really see any reactions that'd indicate that it somehow stands out from its genre, be it some sort of a strong artistic POV or perhaps some notable aesthetic choices. That's why I said middlebrow - I'm not dismissing it in that way, I'm just saying that it's (again, according to what I've read about it) an easily accessible (or, as you said, likeable) and not particularly artistically interesting mainstream sports film. Looking at the Academy's choices as of late, it's really hard for me to picture it as a BP winner at all. A nominee though? Sure. I’m guessing you had similar feeling about Green Book not being able to win BP? |
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Post by JangoB on Nov 16, 2021 14:19:51 GMT
Yes, it is a crowd-pleasing family drama but it's still a sports biopic too and I kinda think that this genre is a bit too specific for the whole Academy to rally behind a representative of one. When's the last time a sports biopic won BP? I just don't see it. Licorice Pizza isn't dismissed as a teen flick because of its (supposed) strong directorial stamp and exactly because of its oddities - all of that makes it stand out from the crowd of your typical teen flicks. King Richard is described as a lovable and rousing crowd picture but I don't really see any reactions that'd indicate that it somehow stands out from its genre, be it some sort of a strong artistic POV or perhaps some notable aesthetic choices. That's why I said middlebrow - I'm not dismissing it in that way, I'm just saying that it's (again, according to what I've read about it) an easily accessible (or, as you said, likeable) and not particularly artistically interesting mainstream sports film. Looking at the Academy's choices as of late, it's really hard for me to picture it as a BP winner at all. A nominee though? Sure. I’m guessing you had similar feeling about Green Book not being able to win BP? Absolutely not because it's not a sports biopic. That seemed like a broader film with a more universal reach. Which is why it did so incredibly well on the international box office stage. I'm just having a hard time imagining that King Richard will appeal to that big a crowd of voters (especially international ones) to actually take the biggie. |
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Post by flasuss on Nov 16, 2021 14:31:57 GMT
Thinking I’ll be pivoting to King Richard after the Don’t Look Up reactions come out. I’m thinking it’s easily ahead of Power of the Dog and probably leapfrogs Belfast. You really think a middlebrow sports biopic will win BP? He's really just looking for excuses not to support Belfast, like he was against Nomadland last season. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Nov 16, 2021 14:41:51 GMT
You really think a middlebrow sports biopic will win BP? He's really just looking for excuses not to support Belfast, like he was against Nomadland last season. I certainly underestimated Nomadland for most of last season but I wasn’t against it by any means. It’s my #5 movie from last year so I liked it plenty. My thoughts are that there will be a shift to a more popular commercial winner this year. I certainly might be wrong and may very well change my opinion several more times as the season progresses. But I’m not looking for any sort of excuse not to support Belfast, I’m just not sold on it as my predicted winner yet. I certainly may be by Dec/Jan. Also, feel free to just reply to me directly. |
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Post by franklin on Nov 16, 2021 15:02:58 GMT
I can see Being the Ricardos getting a Picture nomination at the expense of some supposed late breakers like West Side Story or Nightmare Alley.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 16, 2021 22:35:53 GMT
You could just tag me You're not the only one! True, true. But to be fair... Chastain and Dowd are done!  |
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 16, 2021 22:38:22 GMT
I can see Being the Ricardos getting a Picture nomination at the expense of some supposed late breakers like West Side Story or Nightmare Alley. I think there's enough room for all 3: Being the Ricardos Belfast Don't Look Up Dune King Richard Licorice Pizza Nightmare Alley The Power of the Dog The Tragedy of Macbeth West Side Story |
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 16, 2021 22:39:46 GMT
I’m guessing you had similar feeling about Green Book not being able to win BP? Absolutely not because it's not a sports biopic. That seemed like a broader film with a more universal reach. Which is why it did so incredibly well on the international box office stage. I'm just having a hard time imagining that King Richard will appeal to that big a crowd of voters (especially international ones) to actually take the biggie. Yeah, I don't think the two are that comparable. |
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Post by JangoB on Nov 16, 2021 22:40:48 GMT
I can see Being the Ricardos getting a Picture nomination at the expense of some supposed late breakers like West Side Story or Nightmare Alley. I think there's enough room for all 3: Being the Ricardos Belfast Don't Look Up Dune King Richard Licorice Pizza Nightmare Alley The Power of the Dog The Tragedy of Macbeth West Side Story Correctomundo. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Nov 16, 2021 22:51:44 GMT
Absolutely not because it's not a sports biopic. That seemed like a broader film with a more universal reach. Which is why it did so incredibly well on the international box office stage. I'm just having a hard time imagining that King Richard will appeal to that big a crowd of voters (especially international ones) to actually take the biggie. Yeah, I don't think the two are that comparable. I only meant so in a very broad way of how they both feel similar in their commercial audience appeal and being dismissed over more “artful” projects. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 17, 2021 0:08:20 GMT
Yeah, I don't think the two are that comparable. I only meant so in a very broad way of how they both feel similar in their commercial audience appeal and being dismissed over more “artful” projects. I guess it depends on whether you think Parasite and Nomadland winning were just anomalies or actual signs of the changing Academy. Also, apparently King Richard is only tracking for a $5m opening weekend. Doesn't scream commercial audience favourite (yes I know there's the HBOMax factor). I'm not vehemently against the idea of it winning BP, but right now I have it at 4th at best. |
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Post by quetee on Nov 19, 2021 15:35:53 GMT
So we still need to hear from two more. Looks like TPOTD better enjoy fake frontrunner status while it can.
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Post by countjohn on Nov 19, 2021 18:11:21 GMT
This is definitely a weird year where a lot of the big names don't seem quite right-
Don't Look Up- Despite the big cast really don't see this as an "Oscar movie" with that trailer
Nightmare Alley- Was one of my early favorites but it seems like some people are saying it's more of a thriller now and won't get nods besides Cooper and techs
West Side Story- This has always had bomb written all over it to me
Dune- too genre
Licorice Pizza- Simultaneously too lightweight and too out there, as with a lot of PTA
Belfast- I've seen this. It's very, very lightweight, doesn't deal with The Troubles anywhere near as much as I was expecting, it's more about the little boy screwing around doing little boy things. I could see it slipping into the back of the BP lineup and getting screenplay and cinematography (which is very good) nods but I don't think it's a threat to win.
So that leaves House of Gucci, Power of the Dog, and King Richard (not even going to address Cry Macho and In the Heights still being there). Couldn't find anything about early reactions for House of Gucci from a quick google search, but it fits the bill as a glamorous biopic with a stacked cast. Plus Scott has still somehow not won BD which they are likely looking for an excuse to remedy. Don't know much about Power of the Dog, but the early reactions are extremely good and the Academy does seem to really go for those gritty modern-ish westerns these days so we'll see. Then there's King Richard. The big factor there is people love Will Smith and it looks like one of those big aspirational crowd pleasers that the Academy loves. If Green Book could win just a few years ago people shouldn't laugh this off, especially with Smith as the big early favorite in Best Actor.
My gut says King Richard but I'm unsure between those three.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 19, 2021 22:38:38 GMT
So we still need to hear from two more. Looks like TPOTD better enjoy fake frontrunner status while it can. West Side Story and?? |
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 19, 2021 22:48:32 GMT
King Richard won't get a Director nom, and is in danger of missing Screenplay too. It isn't doing anywhere near as well at the box office this weekend as it should, and I struggle to see it eliciting any real strong passion. Couldn't even place Top 3 at Telluride, and it has 0 100's on MC, at least Green Book had 3 (Belfast already has 5).
Also, Smith being the frontrunner doesn't really have any barring, BP and Actor haven't matched up since 2011.
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Post by michael128 on Nov 20, 2021 0:18:17 GMT
King Richard won't get a Director nom, and is in danger of missing Screenplay too. It isn't doing anywhere near as well at the box office this weekend as it should, and I struggle to see it eliciting any real strong passion. Couldn't even place Top 3 at Telluride, and it has 0 100's on MC, at least Green Book had 3 ( Belfast already has 5). Also, Smith being the frontrunner doesn't really have any barring, BP and Actor haven't matched up since 2011. It also has Song |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Nov 20, 2021 0:55:41 GMT
King Richard won't get a Director nom, and is in danger of missing Screenplay too. It isn't doing anywhere near as well at the box office this weekend as it should, and I struggle to see it eliciting any real strong passion. Couldn't even place Top 3 at Telluride, and it has 0 100's on MC, at least Green Book had 3 ( Belfast already has 5). Also, Smith being the frontrunner doesn't really have any barring, BP and Actor haven't matched up since 2011. None of these are certainties. I still think this will clean up when it comes to the industry awards and will greatly benefit from the preferential ballot. Think it’s a 3-way race with King Richard, Belfast, and Don’t Look Up. Not seeing Power of the Dog as a top BP contender. |
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