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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Apr 12, 2021 1:47:03 GMT
She was the front runner for the Globe and SAG, and she lost both of those - to a newcomer at GG and to someone who had previously won the SAG 5 times. Very different voting bodies. |
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Post by stabcaesar on Apr 12, 2021 1:54:09 GMT
She was the front runner for the Globe and SAG, and she lost both of those - to a newcomer at GG and to someone who had previously won the SAG 5 times. When there's a British contender in the lot, they almost always wins. It's just how BAFTA rolls. The only reason why Mulligan missed is because of that dumb jury system. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Apr 12, 2021 2:00:37 GMT
Being nominated and winning would've been a good indication of Mulligan's strength but her missing because of the jury nomination system this year isn't indicative of weakness. Now the headline is just that we don't know. Cue the speculation.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Apr 12, 2021 2:03:28 GMT
She was the front runner for the Globe and SAG, and she lost both of those - to a newcomer at GG and to someone who had previously won the SAG 5 times. When there's a British contender in the lot, they almost always wins. It's just how BAFTA rolls. The only reason why Mulligan missed is because of that dumb jury system. Vanessa Kirby didn't win - and she been predicted - because of the hometown advantage. |
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Apr 12, 2021 2:06:17 GMT
When there's a British contender in the lot, they almost always wins. It's just how BAFTA rolls. The only reason why Mulligan missed is because of that dumb jury system. Vanessa Kirby didn't win - and she been predicted - because of the hometown advantage. She was her movie's sole nominee running against the BP winner. |
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Apr 12, 2021 2:07:04 GMT
Being nominated and winning would've been a good indication of Mulligan's strength but her missing because of the jury nomination system this year isn't indicative of weakness. Now the headline is just that we don't know. Cue the speculation. She didn't win the Globe or SAG.
It's all moot regarding BAFTA. She wasn't nominated. And she's going into the Oscar race with the weakest of the industry precursors - BFCA.
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Post by stabcaesar on Apr 12, 2021 2:11:44 GMT
Vanessa Kirby didn't win - and she been predicted - because of the hometown advantage. She was not a contender like Weisz, Colman, Ejiofor, Rylance, Carter etc. were. Kirby film's too small. Mulligan's film is not. |
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Apr 12, 2021 2:14:52 GMT
Vanessa Kirby didn't win - and she been predicted - because of the hometown advantage. She was not a contender like Weisz, Colman, Ejiofor, Rylance, Carter etc. were. Kirby film's too small. Mulligan's film is not.
I don't think it's inconceivable that Frances McDormand would still have won. Nomadland did win Best Picture. And this is only her 2nd BAFTA.
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Post by cheesecake on Apr 12, 2021 3:10:55 GMT
So pleased for Hopkins.  |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Apr 12, 2021 5:50:09 GMT
Being nominated and winning would've been a good indication of Mulligan's strength but her missing because of the jury nomination system this year isn't indicative of weakness. Now the headline is just that we don't know. Cue the speculation. It's all moot regarding BAFTA. She wasn't nominated. And she's going into the Oscar race with the weakest of the industry precursors - BFCA.
well, not if you think she would've won.  McDormand's win is moot because of the nomination process and you can see the prognostication coming back with that pick because of course it was going to come down to the two Oscar nominees. In a normal year only having BFCA would be a huge sign of weakness for Mulligan but the fact that the race has been so diluted leaves a path open for her. Every single precursor has awarded a different performance. You can't say Mulligan is weak without saying Day and Davis are also weak. |
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Apr 12, 2021 14:25:42 GMT
It's all moot regarding BAFTA. She wasn't nominated. And she's going into the Oscar race with the weakest of the industry precursors - BFCA.
well, not if you think she would've won. McDormand's win is moot because of the nomination process and you can see the prognostication coming back with that pick because of course it was going to come down to the two Oscar nominees. In a normal year only having BFCA would be a huge sign of weakness for Mulligan but the fact that the race has been so diluted leaves a path open for her. Every single precursor has awarded a different performance. You can't say Mulligan is weak without saying Day and Davis are also weak. Even if she had been nominated for BAFTA, there's a good chance McDormand would still have won, considering Nomadland won Best Picture.
BFCA is the weakest of the 4 precursors. There are actual Oscar voters with SAG.
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Post by Miles Morales on Apr 12, 2021 14:39:33 GMT
Some people really don't want Carey Mulligan to win, I see.
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Post by stabcaesar on Apr 12, 2021 14:40:29 GMT
Even if she had been nominated for BAFTA, there's a good chance McDormand would still have won, considering Nomadland won Best Picture. Doubt that. Boseman is probably the lockest of locks and even he lost to Hopkins. The Father's profile is very similar to PYW. |
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Apr 12, 2021 15:06:51 GMT
Even if she had been nominated for BAFTA, there's a good chance McDormand would still have won, considering Nomadland won Best Picture. Doubt that. Boseman is probably the lockest of locks and even he lost to Hopkins. The Father's profile is very similar to PYW. It is well known that BAFTA seems to have a bias against Black American actors portraying Black American characters. Denzel Washington has never been been nominated. |
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Post by dadsburgers on Apr 12, 2021 15:24:49 GMT
Some people really don't want Carey Mulligan to win, I see. Seems more to me like people really want to be assured Mulligan will win. She's in the race for sure, but it couldn't be any closer of a race. Anyone denying that there is NO front-runner and anyone could conceivably win BA on Oscar night seems to be missing something. |
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Post by Miles Morales on Apr 12, 2021 15:42:56 GMT
Some people really don't want Carey Mulligan to win, I see. Seems more to me like people really want to be assured Mulligan will win. She's in the race for sure, but it couldn't be any closer of a race. Anyone denying that there is NO front-runner and anyone could conceivably win BA on Oscar night seems to be missing something. That is there, but some people are specifically targeting Mulligan in this thread and other threads and it's just weird to me. Yeah, there are no frontrunners and her lead is weak, but it seems like some are just actively rooting against her. |
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Apr 12, 2021 16:42:38 GMT
Seems more to me like people really want to be assured Mulligan will win. She's in the race for sure, but it couldn't be any closer of a race. Anyone denying that there is NO front-runner and anyone could conceivably win BA on Oscar night seems to be missing something. That is there, but some people are specifically targeting Mulligan in this thread and other threads and it's just weird to me. Yeah, there are no frontrunners and her lead is weak, but it seems like some are just actively rooting against her. The nature of her role triggers some people... |
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Post by dadsburgers on Apr 12, 2021 17:01:04 GMT
That is there, but some people are specifically targeting Mulligan in this thread and other threads and it's just weird to me. Yeah, there are no frontrunners and her lead is weak, but it seems like some are just actively rooting against her. The nature of her role triggers some people... Definitely fair points, she is quite divisive unfortunately. I kind of hate that I've found myself on the side rooting against her, because I do like her performance and REALLY appreciate the role, just not nearly as much compared to her competition this year. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Apr 12, 2021 17:06:21 GMT
That is there, but some people are specifically targeting Mulligan in this thread and other threads and it's just weird to me. Yeah, there are no frontrunners and her lead is weak, but it seems like some are just actively rooting against her. The nature of her role triggers some people... I think the nature of her role is why she's gonna win. PYW has that virality factor. It's aggressive and in your face and it touches on clickbaity themes of feminism and consent and features an actress playing against type at a time when badass antiheroines are all the rage. The insane popularity of Killing Eve attests to that and it's no coincidence that PYW draws resemblance to that show because Fennell was a showrunner on it. It's surprising that Mulligan hasn't done better so far but each of her precursor losses are fairly easy to explain away. GG had last-minute race pushback which hasn't expanded to other televised awards, SAG loves Viola Davis, and the BAFTA jury snubbed Mulligan because god knows why.  Pike ran so Mulligan could fly. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Apr 12, 2021 17:09:43 GMT
oh by the way, I guess we can agree that Bakalova is (unfortunately) done? Between this and SAG I'd say Youn has it in the bag.
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Post by stephen on Apr 12, 2021 17:12:42 GMT
oh by the way, I guess we can agree that Bakalova is (unfortunately) done? Between this and SAG I'd say Youn has it in the bag. SAG + BAFTA is a powerful combination, and Minari did better with nominations and it feels like they will want to give it a win somewhere, and Youn is charming the pants off people on the circuit. But Bakalova did insanely well to get as far as she has. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Apr 12, 2021 17:28:56 GMT
SAG + BAFTA is a powerful combination, and Minari did better with nominations and it feels like they will want to give it a win somewhere, and Youn is charming the pants off people on the circuit. But Bakalova did insanely well to get as far as she has.oh definitely. Getting an Oscar nomination for crashing a debutante ball with a cascade of fake period blood is definitely a first.  |
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McDormand's win is moot because of the nomination process and you can see the prognostication coming back with that pick because of course it was going to come down to the two Oscar nominees.
