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Post by alexanderblanchett on Mar 8, 2021 12:19:56 GMT
BEST PICTURE
The Father Least Likely
Da 5 Bloods
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Nomadland. Most likely
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST DIRECTOR:
Lee Isaac Chung: Minari
David Fincher: Mank
Regina King: One Night in Miami Least Likely
Aaron Sorkin: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao: Nomadland. Most likely
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Riz Ahmed: Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman: Ma' Rainey's Black Bottom. Most Likely
Anthony Hopkins: The Father
Delroy Lindo: Da 5 Bloods Least Likely
Gary Oldman: Mank
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Viola Davis: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day: The United States vs. Billie Holliday
Vanessa Kirby: Pieces of a Woman Least Likely
Frances McDormand: Nomadland
Carey Mulligan: Promising Young Woman Most Likely
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Sacha Baron Cohen: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya: Judas and the Black Messiah. Most likely
Jared Leto: The Little Things
Leslie Odom Jr. : One Night in Miami
Paul Raci: Sound of Metal. Least Likely
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Maria Bakalova: Borat Subsequent Movie. Least Likely
Glenn Close: Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman: The Father. Most likely
Jodie Foster: The Mauritanian
Yuh-Jung Youn: Minari
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Post by mhynson27 on Mar 8, 2021 12:24:38 GMT
So Da 5 Bloods hits picture, and Lindo gets in, but Boseman misses for the film?? I can't see that happening.
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Post by mhynson27 on Mar 8, 2021 12:30:35 GMT
Picture
The Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Director
Aaron Sorkin- The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloé Zhao- Nomadland
David Fincher- Mank
Emerald Fennell- Promising Young Woman
Lee Isaac Chung- Minari
Lead Actor
Anthony Hopkins- The Father
Chadwick Boseman- Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Gary Oldman- Mank
Riz Ahmed- Sound of Metal
Steven Yeun- Minari
Lead Actress
Andra Day- The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Carey Mulligan- Promising Young Woman
Frances McDormand- Nomadland
Vanessa Kirby- Pieces of a Woman
Viola Davis- Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Supporting Actor
Alan S. Kim- Minari
Daniel Kaluuya- Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr.- One Night in Miami
Paul Raci- Sound of Metal
Sacha Baron Cohen- The Trial of the Chicago 7
Supporting Actress
Glenn Close- Hillbilly Elegy
Jodie Foster- The Mauritanian
Maria Bakalova- Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Olivia Colman- The Father
Yuh-Jung Youn- Minari
Original Screenplay
Mank
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Adapted Screenplay
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
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Post by Miles Morales on Mar 8, 2021 13:01:27 GMT
You might want to correct that  |
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Mar 8, 2021 14:05:59 GMT
So Da 5 Bloods hits picture, and Lindo gets in, but Boseman misses for the film?? I can't see that happening. And I don’t see that double nom happening . l |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Mar 8, 2021 14:07:32 GMT
I’m still excepting a super out of left field nom in one of the acting categories and maybe even Director. No reasonable guesses but there is too much (reasonable) consensus on most of the picks.
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speeders
Based
Posts: 4,137 
Likes: 2,242
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Post by speeders on Mar 8, 2021 14:32:46 GMT
Picture
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank
Minari
Promising Young Woman
The Father
One Night in Miami
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Judas and the Black Messiah
News of the World
Director
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
David Fincher, Mank
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Alt. Regina King, One Night in Miami & Florian Zeller, The Father (Dark horse: Judas and the Black Messiah but that's looking unlikely)
Lead Actor
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Steven Yeun, Minari
Alt. Ben-Adir Kingsley, One Night in Miami & Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (Dark horse: Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round)
Lead Actress
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
I think this is locked but for dark horse: Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead.
Supporting Actor
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
David Straithairn, Nomadland
Alt. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (Dark horse: Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Supporting Actress
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Olivia Colman, The Father
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Helena Zengel, News of the World
Alt. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm & Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (Dark horse: Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman & Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah)
Original Screenplay
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Promising Young Woman
Mank
Minari
Judas & the Black Messiah
Alt. Soul & Da 5 Bloods
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nomadland
The Father
One Night in Miami
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Alt. News of the World
I'm probably overestimating Judas and the Black Messiah and maybe underpredicting Da 5 Bloods, this is just for fun.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Mar 8, 2021 17:30:02 GMT
Why not wait until the day after tomorrow (Post DGA, PGA and Bafta) to do your final predictions?
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Post by mhynson27 on Mar 8, 2021 22:31:02 GMT
Why not wait until the day after tomorrow (Post DGA, PGA and Bafta) to do your final predictions? I mean we can still edit them at any time. |
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Mar 11, 2021 9:32:39 GMT
Why not wait until the day after tomorrow (Post DGA, PGA and Bafta) to do your final predictions? As expected - they did not change |
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Post by mhynson27 on Mar 11, 2021 10:42:54 GMT
So Da 5 Bloods hits picture, and Lindo gets in, but Boseman misses for the film?? I can't see that happening. I know I said this just a couple of days ago, but I'm actually starting to think that Da 5 Bloods just gets blanked altogether, including Boseman. |
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Post by notacrook on Mar 11, 2021 11:27:45 GMT
So Da 5 Bloods hits picture, and Lindo gets in, but Boseman misses for the film?? I can't see that happening. I know I said this just a couple of days ago, but I'm actually starting to think that Da 5 Bloods just gets blanked altogether, including Boseman. A Lindo snub, now feeling like a near-certainty, will be one of the worst in recent memory. Performance of the year  . |
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Post by JangoB on Mar 11, 2021 11:52:47 GMT
BEST PICTURE
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Mank
The Father
One Night in Miami
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Sound of Metal
(alt: Judas and the Black Messiah)
BEST DIRECTOR
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
David Fincher, Mank
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Darius Marder, Sound of Metal
(alt: Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7)
BEST ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari
(alt: Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian)
BEST ACTRESS
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Olivia Colman, The Father
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
(alt: Maria Bakalova, Borat 2)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Promising Young Woman
Minari
Mank
Sound of Metal
(alt: Judas and the Black Messiah)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nomadland
The Father
One Night in Miami
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
The Mauritanian
(alt: Borat 2)
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Onward
The Croods: A New Age
Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
(alt: Over the Moon)
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Another Round
Dear Comrades!
Quo Vadis, Aida?
Two of Us
I'm No Longer Here
(alt: Collective)
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Post by mhynson27 on Mar 11, 2021 12:36:00 GMT
For the people not predicting Bakalova, I'd love to know why. She's the only contender to hit all 4 of GG/CC/BAFTA/SAG (already won one of them), she won 2/3 of the 'trifecta' and Borat 2 hit both PGA and WGA. Plus her competition is weak af, where's the doubt coming from?
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Drish
Badass
Posts: 2,033 
Likes: 1,765
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Post by Drish on Mar 11, 2021 14:38:24 GMT
For the people not predicting Bakalova, I'd love to know why. She's the only contender to hit all 4 of GG/CC/BAFTA/SAG (already won one of them), she won 2/3 of the 'trifecta' and Borat 2 hit both PGA and WGA. Plus her competition is weak af, where's the doubt coming from? Exactly. I'd be very sad if she doesn't even get a nod for that genius of a performance. I hope she bloody wins the whole thing. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Mar 11, 2021 14:53:00 GMT
Why not wait until the day after tomorrow (Post DGA, PGA and Bafta) to do your final predictions? As expected - they did not change Really? You’re still predicting D5B for picture, King for director, and Lindo for actor? |
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Post by JangoB on Mar 11, 2021 15:09:45 GMT
For the people not predicting Bakalova, I'd love to know why. She's the only contender to hit all 4 of GG/CC/BAFTA/SAG (already won one of them), she won 2/3 of the 'trifecta' and Borat 2 hit both PGA and WGA. Plus her competition is weak af, where's the doubt coming from? I'm really on the fence about this. As you can see, I'm predicting a more traditionally Oscary lineup and I guess that's why I'm still on the fence about Bakalova (as I've been all season despite all her nominations and wins). It's just hard for me to see AMPAS become adventurous and go for a newcomer in a Borat movie, even though the PR team has been working overtime to make it happen. I just see them as traditionalists when it comes to the acting categories but I must stress that this is not a confident prediction at all. I can easily see Seyfried miss in favor of Bakalova, or Foster. Can the Bakalova miss be called an NGNG prediction? If so, let's say I decided to go NGNG. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Mar 11, 2021 22:13:21 GMT
BEST PICTURE
01. Nomadland (I'm not pretending this isn't #1 anymore)
02. The Trial of the Chicago 7
03. Minari
04. Judas and the Black Messiah
05. Mank
06. Promising Young Woman
07. One Night in Miami
08. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
09. Sound of Metal
10. The Father
alt. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Chloe Zhao
2. David Fincher
3. Lee Isaac Chung
4. Emerald Fennell
5. Regina King
alt. Sorkin
BEST ACTRESS
1. Carey Mulligan
2. Andra Day
3. Viola Davis
4. Frances McDormand
5. Vanessa Kirby
alt. Adams
BEST ACTOR
1. Chadwick Boseman
2. Anthony Hopkins
3. Riz Ahmed
4. Gary Oldman
5. Steven Yeun
alt. Rahim
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Maria Bakalova
2. Olivia Colman
3. Glenn Close
4. Yuh-Jung Youn
5. Jodie Foster
alt. Fishback (I don't fuckin know)
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Daniel Kaluuya
2. Leslie Odom Jr.
3. Sacha Baron Cohen
4. Paul Raci
5. Alan Kim
alt. Rylance
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Nomadland
2. One Night in Miami
3. The Father
4. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
alt. News of the World
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Promising Young Woman
3. Minari
4. Judas and the Black Messiah
5. Mank
alt. Sound of Metal
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Onward
4. Over the Moon
5. The Croods: A New Age
alt. The Wiloughbys
DOCUMENTARY
1. Time
2. Collective
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead
4. Welcome to Chechnya
5. Boys State
alt. The Truffle Hunters
INTERNATIONAL FILM
1. Another Round
2. Quo Vadis, Aida?
3. Collective
4. La Llorona
5. Dear Comrades!
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Post by stephen on Mar 11, 2021 22:27:14 GMT
For the people not predicting Bakalova, I'd love to know why. She's the only contender to hit all 4 of GG/CC/BAFTA/SAG (already won one of them), she won 2/3 of the 'trifecta' and Borat 2 hit both PGA and WGA. Plus her competition is weak af, where's the doubt coming from? As someone who thinks Bakalova could actually win (I'm debating between her and Youn right now; I think one or the other will win SAG and that's your ballgame), I think some of the doubt is just how untraditional the performance is, and Borat is absolutely not everyone's cup of tea. But Bakalova has overperformed beyond expectations, and her missing the Oscar nomination after having hit everywhere else would be staggering (but again, probably not surprising given the randomness of the year). Ultimately, Bakalova winning would be indicative of how bizarre this year is, but also, her missing out after having hit everywhere else would also be indicative of how bizarre this year is. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Mar 11, 2021 22:36:51 GMT
As someone who thinks Bakalova could actually win (I'm debating between her and Youn right now; I think one or the other will win SAG and that's your ballgame), I think some of the doubt is just how untraditional the performance is, and Borat is absolutely not everyone's cup of tea. Borat getting PGA & WGA nods in addition to those two GG wins really trounced this argument. At this point I wouldn't even be shocked to see it snag a BP nod, it keeps overperforming and everything that happened on 1/6 gives it political relevance and prescience that people are connecting with. Bakalova is coming for that trophy.  |
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Post by stephen on Mar 11, 2021 22:41:42 GMT
As someone who thinks Bakalova could actually win (I'm debating between her and Youn right now; I think one or the other will win SAG and that's your ballgame), I think some of the doubt is just how untraditional the performance is, and Borat is absolutely not everyone's cup of tea. Borat getting PGA & WGA nods in addition to those two GG wins really trounced this argument. At this point I wouldn't even be shocked to see it snag a BP nod, it keeps overperforming and everything that happened on 1/6 gives it political relevance and prescience that people are connecting with. Bakalova is coming for that trophy. Oh, it's definitely got guild support and that PGA nod shows insane muscle. Wish it had managed to nab a spot on the Makeup shortlist, though. Bakalova winning SAG is still somewhat of a tall order, especially as they loved Minari, so I'm currently predicting a scenario where Youn wins SAG and Bakalova wins BAFTA, and the race becomes a dead heat between the two in time for Oscar. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Mar 11, 2021 22:48:11 GMT
Let me ask the inverse of my Maria question, why are people still predicting Regina?? It makes no sense.
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Post by stephen on Mar 11, 2021 22:54:08 GMT
Let me ask the inverse of my Maria question, why are people still predicting Regina?? It makes no sense. I feel like King is hovering around that 6-8 spot, and I could see One Night in Miami overperforming (especially as it's likely to win one, maybe even two Oscars), and the industry really does like King an awful lot. I don't think predicting her is that outside the realm of possibility, especially as we haven't had a black woman get into that category yet. I'm not counting her out. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Mar 11, 2021 22:57:51 GMT
Let me ask the inverse of my Maria question, why are people still predicting Regina?? It makes no sense. I feel like King is hovering around that 6-8 spot, and I could see One Night in Miami overperforming (especially as it's likely to win one, maybe even two Oscars), and the industry really does like King an awful lot. I don't think predicting her is that outside the realm of possibility, especially as we haven't had a black woman get into that category yet. I'm not counting her out. I get where you're coming from, but I just don't see it. I honestly think she's 9th or 10th at this point. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Mar 11, 2021 23:17:47 GMT
Let me ask the inverse of my Maria question, why are people still predicting Regina?? It makes no sense. I feel like King is hovering around that 6-8 spot, and I could see One Night in Miami overperforming ( especially as it's likely to win one, maybe even two Oscars), and the industry really does like King an awful lot. I don't think predicting her is that outside the realm of possibility, especially as we haven't had a black woman get into that category yet. I'm not counting her out. What would be its second win??? Because there's no way Odom is beating Kaluuya. |
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