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Post by wilcinema on Feb 4, 2021 17:16:38 GMT
I think this snub hurts Seyfried more than we think. It really, really does. I don't think she's done for the nomination, but the thing that benefited her all season long was the assumption that the critical favorites (Youn and Bakalova) would not transition to the industry prizes and she would have the added benefit of Colman having won so recently and Close's film being reviled. But Bakalova's hit both of the industry precursors this week (likely to win one of them, too) and Youn hit SAG (arguably the toughest get for someone like her) where her film overperformed. And then Zengel's taking off like a rocket. Seyfried could absolutely get Captain Phillips'd here. I'll just say it out loud: I think Bakalova has a strong chance at winning SAG.
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Post by stephen on Feb 4, 2021 17:20:09 GMT
So what, that was a while ago and she just got GG + SAG nominations. So? Close, Bakalova, Zengel also GG & SAG nods.
The British factor didn't help Colman with London Film Critics. BAFTA has been about predicting the Oscars. The thing with BAFTA is, you have to look at what's in contention and whether or not there's a hometown advantage. The Father is the big British player of the year (give or take what you'd consider Promising Young Woman to be). Colman missing London Critics doesn't really matter that much; BIFA is a bit more concerning and maybe there is some Colman burnout there (they did give her four wins in a decade, after all). BAFTA will play Oscar prognosticator if the tea leaves are laid out well in advance, but if not (as in the case where there is a likely split-race), you have to at least look at the pros and cons of each contender, and one thing that BAFTA tends to do is go with the local nominee. Is Colman a lock to win BAFTA? No. But if she's likeliest to win anywhere, it's there.
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Post by pacinoyes on Feb 4, 2021 17:20:30 GMT
I don't take any pleasure in Lindo yesterday or today - he was great in a (at best) pretty good film and I do think he (and Spike) can/will still get in at the big show but like I said yesterday - overrated film ......overperformed with critics groups and he DIES with time to go ......... some of this is " cosmic payback" - this is just part 2 of it.....if you don't like that term, then it's "the breaks" as Kurtis Blow would say but it's a bad break that does make sense. It's performance and missing some of these in the critics awards was far more baffling than these recent events tbh.....
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Feb 4, 2021 17:21:47 GMT
I really don't understand this line of thinking. I take it that you personally didn't find his performance impressive but it's fairly clear that the industry folks do. He's not just some coattail thing that randomly popped up - he's the lead of a surefire BP nominee. On top of that, filler nominees happen all the time.
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Post by stephen on Feb 4, 2021 17:22:24 GMT
It really, really does. I don't think she's done for the nomination, but the thing that benefited her all season long was the assumption that the critical favorites (Youn and Bakalova) would not transition to the industry prizes and she would have the added benefit of Colman having won so recently and Close's film being reviled. But Bakalova's hit both of the industry precursors this week (likely to win one of them, too) and Youn hit SAG (arguably the toughest get for someone like her) where her film overperformed. And then Zengel's taking off like a rocket. Seyfried could absolutely get Captain Phillips'd here. I'll just say it out loud: I think Bakalova has a strong chance at winning SAG. Bakalova's biggest hurdle has always been actually getting the nomination. If she can do that, with the Globe and SAG under her belt, I think BAFTA would default to her (going back to the earlier post about them playing prognosticator if there's actually a race to predict) and at that stage, why would she lose the Oscar?
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 4, 2021 17:22:39 GMT
I really don't understand this line of thinking. I take it that you personally didn't find his performance impressive but it's fairly clear that the industry folks do. He's not just some coattail thing that randomly popped up - he's the lead of a surefire BP nominee. I think he may mean that Oldman is safe for the nomination but not the win, and he's not really been singled out as a passion pick against the likes of Boseman, Lindo, or Ahmed. People assume Oldman's in because of exactly the reason you pointed out: he's the lead of a surefire BP nominee. Yes, I haven't seen anyone clamoring for Oldman to win, or big passion for his performance, or film. Contrast this with his two nominations and you get the idea.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 4, 2021 17:23:29 GMT
It also could be a case where they didn't really care for the Da 5 Bloods as a film itself, but just wanted to nominate everything Boseman was involved in for this year. Like someone else said it would've made more sense to just snub D5B across the board really. Yeah, I don't buy that they would have nominated the movie for ensemble because of that. The ensemble was very good, it could have been that simple. Ensemble > lead actor. Plus, not sure if it’s a factor but I came away feeling Lindo was supporting.
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Post by pacinoyes on Feb 4, 2021 17:24:51 GMT
Also, I still think Lindo makes Best Actor because we have seen time and again actors or directors getting in at the Oscars because they are passion picks over ones that are sort of filler nominations. Think Yalitza Aparicio and Marina Tavira making it for Roma, Pawlikowski for Cold War, Lesley Manville for Phantom Thread, etc. And Gary Oldman clearly is the filler this year. I really don't understand this line of thinking. I take it that you personally didn't find his performance impressive but it's fairly clear that the industry folks do. He's not just some coattail thing that randomly popped up - he's the lead of a surefire BP nominee. ^ Exactly this - and the performance was unarguably (as much as this stuff can be unarguable I mean) great - that's a technically dazzling performance and as usual with Oldman, he transforms to character.
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Post by wilcinema on Feb 4, 2021 17:25:11 GMT
I'll just say it out loud: I think Bakalova has a strong chance at winning SAG. Bakalova's biggest hurdle has always been actually getting the nomination. If she can do that, with the Globe and SAG under her belt, I think BAFTA would default to her (going back to the earlier post about them playing prognosticator if there's actually a race to predict) and at that stage, why would she lose the Oscar? Oscars are less about quality and more about narrative, so I think she would need one to counterbalance the shes-an-unknown label that many will try to slap on her. The Rudy Giuliani thing might be a good one.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 4, 2021 17:25:22 GMT
I really don't understand this line of thinking. I take it that you personally didn't find his performance impressive but it's fairly clear that the industry folks do. He's not just some coattail thing that randomly popped up - he's the lead of a surefire BP nominee. On top of that, filler nominees happen all the time. They are way less likely to happen when there's contenders with more passion behind them, specially when they are on movies that are likely to be BP nominees, like Minari and D5B.
Yeah, I don't buy that they would have nominated the movie for ensemble because of that. The ensemble was very good, it could have been that simple. Ensemble > lead actor. Plus, not sure if it’s a factor but I came away feeling Lindo was supporting. Yeah, some category confusion might have played a role in it.
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Post by wilcinema on Feb 4, 2021 17:27:16 GMT
I wouldn't call Oldman a filler nominee. Before GG, many thought he could miss, so the fact that he made both the Globes (and we know they don't love him) and SAG should tell us that people actually like his performance.
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sirchuck23
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Post by sirchuck23 on Feb 4, 2021 17:27:50 GMT
I don't take any pleasure in Lindo yesterday or today - he was great in a (at best) pretty good film and I do think he (and Spike) can/will still get in at the big show but like I said yesterday - overrated film ......overperformed with critics groups and he DIES with time to go ......... some of this is "cosmic payback" - this is just part 2 of it.....if you don't like that term, then it's "the breaks" as Kurtis Blow would say but it's a bad break that does make sense. It's performance and missing some of these in the critics awards was far more baffling than these recent events tbh..... Actually it would've been more cosmic if Da 5 Bloods got left out in Ensemble as well. All things withstanding concerning Lindo..D5B had a good rebound today.
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Post by stephen on Feb 4, 2021 17:28:46 GMT
Bakalova's biggest hurdle has always been actually getting the nomination. If she can do that, with the Globe and SAG under her belt, I think BAFTA would default to her (going back to the earlier post about them playing prognosticator if there's actually a race to predict) and at that stage, why would she lose the Oscar? Oscars are less about quality and more about narrative, so I think she would need one to counterbalance the shes-an-unknown label that many will try to slap on her. The Rudy Giuliani thing might be a good one. Yeah, they're absolutely going to push the Giuliani thing hard, and emphasize how Bakalova is completely different from Tutar, and the transformative aspect of the performance coupled with the political nature of the film and how it was instrumental in really making Giuliani's downfall more mainstream to the public sells itself as a hell of a narrative. And Bakalova is front and center with it, and if actors want to talk about taking risks, no one this year really can top what she did (give or take Boseman).
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Post by pupdurcs on Feb 4, 2021 17:32:54 GMT
I don't take any pleasure in Lindo yesterday or today - he was great in a (at best) pretty good film and I do think he (and Spike) can/will still get in at the big show but like I said yesterday - overrated film ......overperformed with critics groups and he DIES with time to go ......... some of this is "cosmic payback" - this is just part 2 of it.....if you don't like that term, then it's "the breaks" as Kurtis Blow would say but it's a bad break that does make sense. It's performance and missing some of these in the critics awards was far more baffling than these recent events tbh..... Actually it would've been more cosmic if Da 5 Bloods got left out in Ensemble as well. All things withstanding concerning Lindo..D5B had a good rebound today. The SAG ensemble line-up is actually far closer to what the top 5 Best Picture Oscar contenders should look like than the Golden Globe Drama Best Picture line-up.
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Post by iheartamyadams on Feb 4, 2021 17:34:32 GMT
Regarding Seyfried still winning, King pulled that off because she had a very Oscary role and swept critics. She also had much more industry clout and hype thanks to her consecutive Emmy wins. Seyfried has had a pretty underwhelming critic run for a frontrunner and the role just isn’t there. I don’t buy it. I think this snub just killed her chances. Yeah, but she wasn't widely seen and only got a couple of noms, while Seyfried fits the Oscar mold to a T- playing a real life person (an actress to boot, and one that famously got shafted in Citizen Kane) who's a very sympathetic character, is young and drop dead gorgeous, in a movie that will have many noms (though mostly technical), and in a movie that attracted a lot of attention (in it's release at least). She’s playing an actress, it’s SAG catnip as much, if not more than Oscar catnip and she still missed. She’s done imo.
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sirchuck23
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Post by sirchuck23 on Feb 4, 2021 17:39:23 GMT
Actually it would've been more cosmic if Da 5 Bloods got left out in Ensemble as well. All things withstanding concerning Lindo..D5B had a good rebound today. The SAG ensemble line-up is actually far closer to what the top 5 Best Picture Oscar contenders should look like than the Golden Globe Drama Best Picture line-up.Some strong sauce right there!
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Feb 4, 2021 17:42:22 GMT
Actually it would've been more cosmic if Da 5 Bloods got left out in Ensemble as well. All things withstanding concerning Lindo..D5B had a good rebound today. The SAG ensemble line-up is actually far closer to what the top 5 Best Picture Oscar contenders should look like than the Golden Globe Drama Best Picture line-up.Yes going in I was fretting Da 5 Bloods getting shut out entirely, but was pleasantly surprised and disappointed at the same time (Lindo snub!). If anything the movie's in better shape today, then it was yesterday.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Feb 4, 2021 17:42:26 GMT
I'll just say it out loud: I think Bakalova has a strong chance at winning SAG. why would she lose the Oscar? It's a comedy - where she's really Lead not supporting. She's a Hollywood unknown in a category that have favored older, more established actresses.
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Post by stephen on Feb 4, 2021 17:44:14 GMT
why would she lose the Oscar? It's a comedy - where she's really Lead not supporting. She's a Hollywood unknown in a category that have favored older, more established actresses.
This isn't exactly a knock against Bakalova. In the last decade, about half of the supporting winners at the Oscars were either category frauds or borderline.
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avnermoriarti
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Post by avnermoriarti on Feb 4, 2021 18:19:02 GMT
Leto is giving me Kidman/Paperboy vibes...
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Post by quetee on Feb 4, 2021 18:22:06 GMT
Hmm, well, Okay, so I guess it is Glenn vs Maria. Surprised Amy scored a nod I was hoping Elizabeth would get one here but it didn't happen. Oh well.
Seriously guys, nobody watched Mank.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 4, 2021 18:41:11 GMT
Hmm, well, Okay, so I guess it is Glenn vs Maria. Surprised Amy scored a nod I was hoping Elizabeth would get one here but it didn't happen. Oh well. Seriously guys, nobody watched Mank. Which explains how well Oldman is doing.
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Lubezki
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Post by Lubezki on Feb 4, 2021 19:00:01 GMT
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 4, 2021 19:57:51 GMT
Hmm, well, Okay, so I guess it is Glenn vs Maria. Surprised Amy scored a nod I was hoping Elizabeth would get one here but it didn't happen. Oh well. Seriously guys, nobody watched Mank. I think Close is more likely to not be nominated than to win, Oscars don't do compensation awards anymore- and before anyone says Leo, just look at the other nominees on the list, he'd have won even if he was a previous winner easily. Specially for a performance in a movie so poorly received.
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Post by quetee on Feb 4, 2021 20:32:09 GMT
Hmm, well, Okay, so I guess it is Glenn vs Maria. Surprised Amy scored a nod I was hoping Elizabeth would get one here but it didn't happen. Oh well. Seriously guys, nobody watched Mank. Which explains how well Oldman is doing. That's not helping her case. If people watched it and it was in the comfort of their own home and it came out three months ago and she still couldn't score a nod from her peers... then that is worst than saying nobody watched it. It says, they were not that impressed with her performance.
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