filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Feb 4, 2021 16:46:54 GMT
Could Glenn Close actually win the Oscar for this Hillbilly thing? Seyfried is being kneecapped right now! She totally can. Her role still remains the baitiest one imaginable. Plus the sympathy factor. Glenn Close just won her Oscar. Over due, playing against type.
Seyfried - SAG snub. I doubt she will pull a Regina
Bakalov - unknown Bulgarian actress in Comedy. Category fraud - should be lead.
Youn - Very difficult to win without a GG nod
Coman - too recent of a winner
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 4, 2021 16:52:26 GMT
I don’t really understand what’s happening with Lindo. Very sad, he’s easily the highlight of that film. That's why my idea that most voters are not actually watching these movies and shows makes a lot of sense. People vote on Spike Lee's film for name recognition, and on Boseman because he died, but not on Lindo because they would have to actually watch it.
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Post by iheartamyadams on Feb 4, 2021 16:53:13 GMT
Some scattered thoughts
Not sure what to think about Best Actor:
I think it would’ve been a better look if Da 5 Bloods missed altogether, but for the film to manage three noms and still snub him is bizarre and concerning. Especially since Yeun could realistically get nominated now with the Minari surge. Oldman, Hopkins, Boseman and Ahmed feel secure with Lindo and Yeun battling for 5th. That will be a really tough call, I’m not sure which way it will go
Actress seems set with Kirby, Davis, Mulligan, and McDormand. Day still feels like the most realistic option for 5th, but things could get interesting if Adams also gets BAFTA. PYW missed ensemble while Ma Rainey made it, so I still think Davis could win the Oscar.
Supporting is a true mess. Zengel, Close and Colman all hit GG and SAG and I do believe they’ll get in. Seyfried is obviously still safe for the nom. Bakalova and Youn seem to be battling for 5th, especially now that Burstyn has missed both GG and SAG. something tells me that Borat is just too out there for the acting branch. That and the possibility that Minari is a BP nominee makes me favor Youn atm. Youn’s GG snub means she’s probably not winning SAG. I think the race will come down to Colman and Close again and I favor the latter.
Raci has now missed GG and SAG but I still don’t buy Leto happening for The Little Things. I think he’s the most likely name for GG/SAG snub, so I guess there’s a possibility that Raci happens with no precursors or maybe something like Straitharn for Nomadland surprises with no precursors.
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Post by stephen on Feb 4, 2021 16:55:00 GMT
3. Seyfried can still win. All she needs to do is win the Globe, and she will have the buzz to win Globe + BAFTA into the Oscar. What concerns me about this is that one of the de facto contenders is going to be coming into that night with a very likely Globe win under her belt in Comedy/Musical and a SAG nomination. Yes, it'll be for a completely unorthodox film and performance, but it's a completely unorthodox race and year, and out of all of the nominees, Bakalova's the one whose film has sort of transcended into mainstream discussion because of the Giuliani factor (and that is going to be part of the campaign around her, as well as the things she did to get the audition and get into character). Seyfried could definitely back and I think could possibly win the Globe (they did favor Mank more than any other movie), but I don't know if I see BAFTA going as hard for Mank as they did, especially when there's a major British film in the mix. I genuinely could see a race where each of the main prizes is won by an entirely different actress, making it a massive question mark at the end.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Feb 4, 2021 16:55:46 GMT
I don’t really understand what’s happening with Lindo. Very sad, he’s easily the highlight of that film. As I said before the critics awards, Lindo has certain things working against him for a Lead Actor contender: I am sticking to my Best Actor predictions from 1.5 months ago, I still think it's Boseman > Hopkins > Oldman > Ahmed > Lindo > Yeun.
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Post by wilcinema on Feb 4, 2021 16:56:20 GMT
3. Seyfried can still win. All she needs to do is win the Globe, and she will have the buzz to win Globe + BAFTA into the Oscar. Olivia is winning BAFTA.
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Post by pupdurcs on Feb 4, 2021 16:59:34 GMT
Raci has now missed GG and SAG but I still don’t buy Leto happening for The Little Things. I think he’s the most likely name for GG/SAG snub, so I guess there’s a possibility that Raci happens with no precursors or maybe something like Straitharn for Nomadland surprises with no precursors. There are a lot of options in supporting this year. I could easily see one of the supporting actors from Ma Rainey's Black Bottom or One Night In Miami or The Trial Of The Chicago 7 showing up on Oscar morning with little precursor support.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Feb 4, 2021 17:00:25 GMT
3. Seyfried can still win. All she needs to do is win the Globe, and she will have the buzz to win Globe + BAFTA into the Oscar. Olivia is winning BAFTA. She was snubbed for London Film Critics.
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Post by wilcinema on Feb 4, 2021 17:01:25 GMT
She was snubbed for London Film Critics. So what, that was a while ago and she just got GG + SAG nominations.
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sirchuck23
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Bad news dawg...you don't mind if I have some of your 300 dollar a glass shit there would ya?
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Post by sirchuck23 on Feb 4, 2021 17:01:48 GMT
I don’t really understand what’s happening with Lindo. Very sad, he’s easily the highlight of that film. That's why my idea that most voters are not actually watching these movies and shows makes a lot of sense. People vote on Spike Lee's film for name recognition, and on Boseman because he died, but not on Lindo because they would have to actually watch it. It also could be a case where they didn't really care for the Da 5 Bloods as a film itself, but just wanted to nominate everything Boseman was involved in for this year. Like someone else said it would've made more sense to just snub D5B across the board really.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 4, 2021 17:04:42 GMT
That's why my idea that most voters are not actually watching these movies and shows makes a lot of sense. People vote on Spike Lee's film for name recognition, and on Boseman because he died, but not on Lindo because they would have to actually watch it. It also could be a case where they didn't really care for the Da 5 Bloods as a film itself, but just wanted to nominate everything Boseman was involved in for this year. Like someone else said it would've made more sense to just snub D5B across the board really. Yeah, I don't buy that they would have nominated the movie for ensemble because of that.
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Post by iheartamyadams on Feb 4, 2021 17:05:27 GMT
She was snubbed for London Film Critics. And BIFA. Pretty significant considering her status in the UK. It sort of suggests to me that they won’t just default to her this time. I think she’ll need to win something leading to BAFTA in order to win again.
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Post by wallsofjericho on Feb 4, 2021 17:07:27 GMT
So sad to see Lindo snubbed. I hope he can still make it.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Feb 4, 2021 17:07:29 GMT
What concerns me about this is that one of the de facto contenders is going to be coming into that night with a very likely Globe win under her belt in Comedy/Musical and a SAG nomination. Yes, it'll be for a completely unorthodox film and performance, but it's a completely unorthodox race and year, and out of all of the nominees, Bakalova's the one whose film has sort of transcended into mainstream discussion because of the Giuliani factor (and that is going to be part of the campaign around her, as well as the things she did to get the audition and get into character). I think the unconventional Bakalova will be a welcome distraction for Seyfried. Now that she has missed SAG, a fractured race with multiple performances contending might just be what she needs to pull ahead rather than having to overtake one strong alternative that has made all 3 precursors. Even that side, this is an unorthodox race and year like you said, so we're in for some surprises. I think Seyfried's best path is to be 1 of 3 or 4 contenders for the win and pipping them at the post, now that she's missed SAG. But she absolutely has to win the Globe for that to happen.
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Post by iheartamyadams on Feb 4, 2021 17:07:58 GMT
Regarding Seyfried still winning, King pulled that off because she had a very Oscary role and swept critics. She also had much more industry clout and hype thanks to her consecutive Emmy wins. Seyfried has had a pretty underwhelming critic run for a frontrunner and the role just isn’t there. I don’t buy it. I think this snub just killed her chances.
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Post by wilcinema on Feb 4, 2021 17:10:10 GMT
I think this snub hurts Seyfried more than we think.
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Post by stephen on Feb 4, 2021 17:10:41 GMT
What concerns me about this is that one of the de facto contenders is going to be coming into that night with a very likely Globe win under her belt in Comedy/Musical and a SAG nomination. Yes, it'll be for a completely unorthodox film and performance, but it's a completely unorthodox race and year, and out of all of the nominees, Bakalova's the one whose film has sort of transcended into mainstream discussion because of the Giuliani factor (and that is going to be part of the campaign around her, as well as the things she did to get the audition and get into character). I think the unconventional Bakalova will be a welcome distraction for Seyfried. Now that she has missed SAG, a fractured race with multiple performances contending might just be what she needs to pull ahead rather having to overtake one strong alternative that has made all 3 precursors. Even that side, this is an unorthodox race and year like you said, so we're in for some surprises. I think Seyfried's best path is to be 1 of 3 or 4 contenders for the win and pipping them at the post, now that she's missed SAG. But she absolutely has to win the Globe for that to happen. The one thing that throws me off is that the five nominees at SAG really do have everything they need to score at BAFTA as well, and correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't BAFTA doing six nominees per category starting this year? So unless one of these five misses there, if we assume it's Bakalova/Close/Colman/Seyfried/Youn/Zengel there, it's not going to clear anything up.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 4, 2021 17:11:09 GMT
Also, I still think Lindo makes Best Actor because we have seen time and again actors or directors getting in at the Oscars because they are passion picks over ones that are sort of filler nominations. Think Yalitza Aparicio and Marina Tavira making it for Roma, Pawlikowski for Cold War, Lesley Manville for Phantom Thread, etc. And Gary Oldman clearly is the filler this year.
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Post by wilcinema on Feb 4, 2021 17:13:34 GMT
Also, I still think Lindo makes Best Actor because we have seen time and again actors or directors getting in at the Oscars because they are passion picks over ones that are sort of filler nominations. Think Yalitza Aparicio and Marina Tavira making it for Roma, Pawlikowski for Cold War, Lesley Manville for Phantom Thread, etc. And Gary Oldman clearly is the filler this year. Mank is hard to figure out. It had a strong showing at GG, underperformed at SAG, so we should wait until BAFTA announces. Honestly, I thought Oldman wouldn't make the SAG lineup.
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Post by JangoB on Feb 4, 2021 17:14:35 GMT
Also, I still think Lindo makes Best Actor because we have seen time and again actors or directors getting in at the Oscars because they are passion picks over ones that are sort of filler nominations. Think Yalitza Aparicio and Marina Tavira making it for Roma, Pawlikowski for Cold War, Lesley Manville for Phantom Thread, etc. And Gary Oldman clearly is the filler this year. I really don't understand this line of thinking. I take it that you personally didn't find his performance impressive but it's fairly clear that the industry folks do. He's not just some coattail thing that randomly popped up - he's the lead of a surefire BP nominee.
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Post by stephen on Feb 4, 2021 17:14:38 GMT
I think this snub hurts Seyfried more than we think. It really, really does. I don't think she's done for the nomination, but the thing that benefited her all season long was the assumption that the critical favorites (Youn and Bakalova) would not transition to the industry prizes and she would have the added benefit of Colman having won so recently and Close's film being reviled. But Bakalova's hit both of the industry precursors this week (likely to win one of them, too) and Youn hit SAG (arguably the toughest get for someone like her) where her film overperformed. And then Zengel's taking off like a rocket. Seyfried could absolutely get Captain Phillips'd here.
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Post by stabcaesar on Feb 4, 2021 17:15:05 GMT
I think the unconventional Bakalova will be a welcome distraction for Seyfried. Now that she has missed SAG, a fractured race with multiple performances contending might just be what she needs to pull ahead rather having to overtake one strong alternative that has made all 3 precursors. Even that side, this is an unorthodox race and year like you said, so we're in for some surprises. I think Seyfried's best path is to be 1 of 3 or 4 contenders for the win and pipping them at the post, now that she's missed SAG. But she absolutely has to win the Globe for that to happen. The one thing that throws me off is that the five nominees at SAG really do have everything they need to score at BAFTA as well, and correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't BAFTA doing six nominees per category starting this year? So unless one of these five misses there, if we assume it's Bakalova/Close/Colman/Seyfried/Youn/Zengel there, it's not going to clear anything up. Yes BAFTA is doing six nominees per category this year, which is totally nonsensical and makes it even less relevant than it already was.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Feb 4, 2021 17:15:38 GMT
She was snubbed for London Film Critics. So what, that was a while ago and she just got GG + SAG nominations. So? Close, Bakalova, Zengel also GG & SAG nods.
The British factor didn't help Colman with London Film Critics. BAFTA has been more about predicting the Oscars.
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Post by stephen on Feb 4, 2021 17:15:56 GMT
Also, I still think Lindo makes Best Actor because we have seen time and again actors or directors getting in at the Oscars because they are passion picks over ones that are sort of filler nominations. Think Yalitza Aparicio and Marina Tavira making it for Roma, Pawlikowski for Cold War, Lesley Manville for Phantom Thread, etc. And Gary Oldman clearly is the filler this year. I really don't understand this line of thinking. I take it that you personally didn't find his performance impressive but it's fairly clear that the industry folks do. He's not just some coattail thing that randomly popped up - he's the lead of a surefire BP nominee. I think he may mean that Oldman is safe for the nomination but not the win, and he's not really been singled out as a passion pick against the likes of Boseman, Lindo, or Ahmed. People assume Oldman's in because of exactly the reason you pointed out: he's the lead of a surefire BP nominee.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Feb 4, 2021 17:16:24 GMT
Regarding Seyfried still winning, King pulled that off because she had a very Oscary role and swept critics. She also had much more industry clout and hype thanks to her consecutive Emmy wins. Seyfried has had a pretty underwhelming critic run for a frontrunner and the role just isn’t there. I don’t buy it. I think this snub just killed her chances. Yeah, but she wasn't widely seen and only got a couple of noms, while Seyfried fits the Oscar mold to a T- playing a real life person (an actress to boot, and one that famously got shafted in Citizen Kane) who's a very sympathetic character, is young and drop dead gorgeous, in a movie that will have many noms (though mostly technical), and in a movie that attracted a lot of attention (in it's release at least).
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