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Post by iheartamyadams on Feb 3, 2021 14:26:19 GMT
For Best Actress, I guess we can no longer deny that Carey Mulligan is officially the frontrunner. What a weird win that will be lol
Supporting Actress is a true mess. Close is locked for SAG, so I think that makes two overall locks (Seyfried & Colman) with Close being likely. As for the rest, Youn and Burstyn both snubbed. Zengel made it.. Is she a legitimate threat now? Globes are notoriously pretty tough on child performers, so that’s a pretty big get for her. Looks like it’s Youn, Bakolova, Zengel and Burstyn for two spots. Will be interesting to see which way SAG goes here.
Lindo was snubbed, but I can’t imagine that he’d miss the Oscar nom. I’m still a little skeptical of Oldman at SAG, but we most likely have a solid five here in Lindo, Oldman, Ahmed, Boseman and Hopkins. The Father did fairly well while Ma Rainey got the minimum so i guess there’s a chance that Hopkins could upset
Supporting Actor saw Raci and Boseman miss with Kaluuya being the only nom for the film. It’s hard to imagine Kaluuya losing after seeing the film but it’s also hard to deny that SBC looks well positioned with the way things played out here. Screaming @ the Jared Leto nom but that’s the epitome of a Globes and/or SAG thing only.
Glad Pike made it for I Care A lot. The Globes really like her. The Streep snub is absolutely shocking. Two raved C/M performances and nothing. I’m genuinely floored.
Other noms that really surprised me were Fennell in Director, Kate Hudson in that movie by Sia and also just the complete lack of Da 5 Bloods anywhere.
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Post by mhynson27 on Feb 3, 2021 14:28:29 GMT
I really hope Regina King wins Best Director Because she's your fave in the category or just to piss off Franklin??
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Post by stephen on Feb 3, 2021 14:30:57 GMT
For Best Actress, I guess we can no longer deny that Carey Mulligan is officially the frontrunner. What a weird win that will be lol Supporting Actress is a true mess. Close is locked for SAG, so I think that makes two overall locks (Seyfried & Colman) with Close being likely. As for the rest, Youn and Burstyn both snubbed. Zengel made it.. Is she a legitimate threat now? Globes are notoriously pretty tough on child performers, so that’s a pretty big get for her. Looks like it’s Youn, Bakolova, Zengel and Burstyn for two spots. Will be interesting to see which way SAG goes here. Lindo was snubbed, but I can’t imagine that he’d miss the Oscar nom. I’m still a little skeptical of Oldman at SAG, but we most likely have a solid five here in Lindo, Oldman, Ahmed, Boseman and Hopkins. The Father did fairly well while Ma Rainey got the minimum so i guess there’s a chance that Hopkins could upset Supporting Actor saw Raci and Boseman miss with Kaluuya being the only nom for the film. It’s hard to imagine Kaluuya losing after seeing the film but it’s also hard to deny that SBC looks well positioned with the way things played out here. Glad Pike made it for I Care A lot. The Globes really like her. The Streep snub is absolutely shocking. Two raved C/M performances and nothing. I’m genuinely floored. Other noms that really surprised me were Fennell in Director, Kate Hudson in that movie by Sia and also just the complete lack of Da 5 Bloods anywhere. Mulligan's film has passion behind it. If it can sustain it, Mulligan's got nothing standing in her way. HFPA should've by rights been the toughest crowd to please when it came to Promising Young Woman and they went hard for it. Look out for Zengel tomorrow at SAG. If she hits it, I'd say she catapults into the Top 5. That's the power of Tom Hanks.
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Post by stephen on Feb 3, 2021 14:31:08 GMT
I really hope Regina King wins Best Director Because she's your fave in the category or just to piss off Franklin?? Why not both?
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Post by mhynson27 on Feb 3, 2021 14:32:04 GMT
Because she's your fave in the category or just to piss off Franklin?? Why not both? Two birds with one stone, I like the way you think.
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Post by wilcinema on Feb 3, 2021 14:32:05 GMT
I really hope Regina King wins Best Director Because she's your fave in the category or just to piss off Franklin?? I haven't even seen the movie yet so do your math.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Feb 3, 2021 14:33:01 GMT
the Ma Rainey snubs hurt. After seeing it do so well at the ISAs and so poorly here I'm wondering if it's not going to be an industry player... for whatever reason, which I don't understand. It's a great film, very accessible relative to other play-based films, has a great rhythm and pop to its dialogue, and has a phenomenal ensemble cast anchored by two frontrunner leads so it's weird that it didn't do better today.
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Post by stephen on Feb 3, 2021 14:38:37 GMT
the Ma Rainey snubs hurt. After seeing it do so well at the ISAs and so poorly here I'm wondering if it's not going to be an industry player... for whatever reason, which I don't understand. It's a great film, very accessible relative to other play-based films, has a great rhythm and pop to its dialogue, and has a phenomenal ensemble cast anchored by two frontrunner leads so it's weird that it didn't do better today. I think it'll be fine with the industry, but I do think the narrative around it is almost entirely coalesced around Boseman. I think it'll do well with nominations (Picture, Actor, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, maybe Costumes and Production Design), but I think Boseman's eaten up all of the oxygen in the room when it comes to the film.
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Post by Pavan on Feb 3, 2021 14:42:24 GMT
Jared Leto for The Little Things? Wtf. The HFPA always gotta throw a wrench into this damn category The only time liked Leto tbh
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Post by wilcinema on Feb 3, 2021 14:43:03 GMT
Ma Rainey can be nominated for SAG Ensemble, and Viola can easily win SAG. I wouldn't take these GG nominations too seriously.
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Post by mhynson27 on Feb 3, 2021 14:44:54 GMT
Ma Rainey can be nominated for SAG Ensemble, and Viola can easily win SAG. I wouldn't take these GG nominations too seriously. Mulligan can win the Globe and BAFTA though, I think she's ahead at this point.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Feb 3, 2021 14:45:31 GMT
regarding the Lindo snub, it's surprising but not unwarranted. This happens every year where the critics prop up performances which eventually get excluded from industry awards and we get this manufactured "snubbed" narrative because people take critics too seriously. We'll have to wait for SAG tomorrow but if Lindo misses there I'd say he's done.
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Post by stabcaesar on Feb 3, 2021 14:48:16 GMT
Slightly disappointed that A Sun didn't make it. I haven't seen it but I just want to see us getting nominated again lol. The foreign language film category is always pretty random but Denmark, Guatemala and France seem like locks, so there are only two slots left.
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Post by stephen on Feb 3, 2021 14:49:36 GMT
Ma Rainey can be nominated for SAG Ensemble, and Viola can easily win SAG. I wouldn't take these GG nominations too seriously. Mulligan can win the Globe and BAFTA though, I think she's ahead at this point. This cannot be understated. Lately, BAFTA has been a stronger bellwether for wins in a split race over SAG, especially if there's a Globe nomination to back it up. And let's not forget that Viola Davis has won SAG and lost to a Globe/BAFTA winner in the past. They love her, they obviously love her (five wins across several different categories), but they love McDormand just as much (four wins across several different categories), and I really do think the industry will respond very favorably to Mulligan's film.
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Post by wilcinema on Feb 3, 2021 14:50:10 GMT
Ma Rainey can be nominated for SAG Ensemble, and Viola can easily win SAG. I wouldn't take these GG nominations too seriously. Mulligan can win the Globe and BAFTA though, I think she's ahead at this point. Viola can still win even if she only wins SAG. But she has to win that.
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Post by Viced on Feb 3, 2021 14:51:17 GMT
That piece of shit Da 5 Bloods was shut out entirely?!
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Post by iheartamyadams on Feb 3, 2021 14:51:27 GMT
I forgot to mention that Andra Day making it here over Sophia Loren is a pretty big deal. They’ve never been big on Lee Daniels, so I have to think she’s now in best positioning for the fifth spot. Zendaya has felt like a massive case of trying it ever since reviews hit (I won’t predict that even if she makes SAG) and I just don’t see Loren making it at the Oscars with no precursors.
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Post by wilcinema on Feb 3, 2021 14:52:57 GMT
Mulligan can win the Globe and BAFTA though, I think she's ahead at this point. This cannot be understated. Lately, BAFTA has been a stronger bellwether for wins in a split race over SAG, especially if there's a Globe nomination to back it up. And let's not forget that Viola Davis has won SAG and lost to a Globe/BAFTA winner in the past. They love her, they obviously love her (five wins across several different categories), but they love McDormand just as much (four wins across several different categories), and I really do think the industry will respond very favorably to Mulligan's film. Ok but she lost the Oscar to Meryl Streep playing Maggie Thatcher. I don't Mulligan as a steamroller, she will probably lose one of the precursors (SAG being the most likely).
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Post by stephen on Feb 3, 2021 14:54:10 GMT
I forgot to mention that Andra Day making it here over Sophia Loren is a pretty big deal. They’ve never been big on Lee Daniels, so I have to think she’s now in best positioning for the fifth spot. Zendaya has felt like a massive case of trying it ever since reviews hit (I won’t predict that even if she makes SAG) and I just don’t see Loren making it at the Oscars with no precursors. I'm still kicking myself for forgetting to put Andra Day in my predictions because I thought that even if the film sucks, they can't resist recognizing her for putting in the work.
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Post by stephen on Feb 3, 2021 14:58:00 GMT
This cannot be understated. Lately, BAFTA has been a stronger bellwether for wins in a split race over SAG, especially if there's a Globe nomination to back it up. And let's not forget that Viola Davis has won SAG and lost to a Globe/BAFTA winner in the past. They love her, they obviously love her (five wins across several different categories), but they love McDormand just as much (four wins across several different categories), and I really do think the industry will respond very favorably to Mulligan's film. Ok but she lost the Oscar to Meryl Streep playing Maggie Thatcher. I don't Mulligan as a steamroller, she will probably lose one of the precursors (SAG being the most likely). She still lost, though. That's the point I'm making. If you want to go with another comparison, Colman beat Close with the Globe+BAFTA combine. SAG used to be the most reliable precursor but in the last several years or so, BAFTA has gained a remarkable amount of steam and voice when it comes to dictating the flow of the race. Yes, they still have their hometown biases, but if you've got a split race with no clear frontrunner, look to what BAFTA does and judge accordingly. Yes, Mulligan could miss SAG and she could even miss the Globe (though with the amount of love they showed her movie, it'd be a surprise). But I think this is going to be one of those years where the industry rallies around someone who has been around for a while and has put in the time, and Mulligan fits that bill.
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Post by stabcaesar on Feb 3, 2021 15:00:29 GMT
If PYW (and Mulligan) performs as well as at the Globes I can see Bo Burnham getting a nomination like Laura Dern and Maggie Gyllenhaal did for Wild and for Crazy Heart.
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Post by wilcinema on Feb 3, 2021 15:00:43 GMT
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Post by Allenism on Feb 3, 2021 15:06:27 GMT
Why is Minari a foreign film? Because it has mostly Korean dialogue? That's not how it works. I May Destroy You getting zilch is farcical. But by all means nominate Ratched and Emily in Paris
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Post by franklin on Feb 3, 2021 15:09:38 GMT
Lindo will still get an Oscar nomination. The Globes this year have been even more trolls thsn usual.
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Post by JangoB on Feb 3, 2021 15:16:18 GMT
Why is Minari a foreign film? Because it has mostly Korean dialogue? That's not how it works. I May Destroy You getting zilch is farcical. But by all means nominate Ratched and Emily in Paris With the Globes it does. As I understand it, their specific rule of qualification is the amount of non-English dialogue.
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