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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 15, 2021 16:18:06 GMT
Not buying Da 5 Bloods as a threat to win BP with its low audience scores - they're not "low" in general but they are for a BP ......check RT and IMDB and wherever you like....... and yeah I don't care much for Spike Lee and his career but Da 5 Bloods was one of his (somewhat) better ones (better than Blackkklansman too) before it goes haywire/messy at the end and he could win Best Director, yes. But it just hasn't pushed the general audience button........you can say that's racism - and knowing this board I'm sure you all will .......but Nomadland will have a degree of passion you don't see on message boards I reckon - to think there isn't passion for it is wrong.......and how is Da 5 Bloods a "contender" for Best Actor when no one in their right mind would vote against Boseman (and I'd put Lindo 4th on merit behind Hopkins, Ahmed, Boseman too).......it's a multiple nominee with a director in the #2 spot, that's all it is that I can see. Chicago 7 isn't the "Green Book" here - people loved Green Book.........it's more like the Spotlight of this year....that's the 1-2 race..... Not saying Lindo is really competitive to win, but he's the closest thing to "competitive" there is, considering the critics awards he's won. Oh I know, but I just think when this gets to the televised awards he's likely to be this year's Joe Pesci to Boseman's Brad Pitt obviously........and Da 5 Bloods is going to hit another wall with those televised awards. On the other hand if Lee could win at the DGA, that constructs not just a BD win for him but also a possible BP upset ......I could see that if I was playing devils advocate for it......
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sirchuck23
Based
Bad news dawg...you don't mind if I have some of your 300 dollar a glass shit there would ya?
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Post by sirchuck23 on Jan 15, 2021 16:27:42 GMT
I'll just say its hard to gauge this race at this time All the BP contenders have their pros and cons..too indie, too stagey, too divisive, too late in the game, too bland, etc. its hard to know who exactly the televised awards will go for this year, since more than likely the ceremonies are all going to be virtual this year and "smaller" in scope since it won't be in-person. Maybe they can afford to go with a more indie or divisive film. Nomadland has been the frontrunner since November, can it carry all the way through to the finish line at the end of April, perhaps..but there's still time for a backlash to it with the concerns some have expressed. Just going on recent Oscar history with the terrible Green Book win, Trial of The Chicago 7 would be a good bet..an inoffensive, by the book film that has an ending that makes the audience feel inspired/good and written/directed by industry fave Aaron Sorkin. Could just be what the "steak eaters" of the Academy gravitate to.
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Jan 15, 2021 17:02:08 GMT
I really don't see why we need to write off Da 5 Bloods right now. Sure it isn't an assumed frontrunner or anything (that's Normadland of course), but it's held on rather strong in all of these various smaller awards show, and barring an awards colaspe, Lindo almost feel assured for a nomination right now. It's all a crapshoot right now anyway, since the Oscars in general are such an up in the air kinda deal.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 15, 2021 18:01:57 GMT
I really don't see why we need to write off Da 5 Bloods right now. Sure it isn't an assumed frontrunner or anything (that's Normadland of course), but it's held on rather strong in all of these various smaller awards show, and barring an awards colaspe, Lindo almost feel assured for a nomination right now. It's all a crapshoot right now anyway, since the Oscars in general are such an up in the air kinda deal. Of course it shouldn’t be written off but there’s no reason to think it has any more of a shot at winning BP that basically anything else in the conversation. Would it even be the biggest shocker if it isn’t even nominated for BP?
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 15, 2021 18:15:54 GMT
I really don't see why we need to write off Da 5 Bloods right now. Sure it isn't an assumed frontrunner or anything (that's Normadland of course), but it's held on rather strong in all of these various smaller awards show, and barring an awards colaspe, Lindo almost feel assured for a nomination right now. It's all a crapshoot right now anyway, since the Oscars in general are such an up in the air kinda deal. Of course it shouldn’t be written off but there’s no reason to think it has any more of a shot at winning BP that basically anything else in the conversation. Would it even be the biggest shocker if it isn’t even nominated for BP? I don't think it'd be the biggest shock if any one of those films on this poll, bar Nomadland (due to it's defacto frontrunner status) , missed out on a BP nod. It's one of those years.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 15, 2021 18:28:11 GMT
I dunno why we can't write off Da 5 Bloods actually.......or at least I can......the whole point of the thread is to write off every movie and to just pick 1 movie anyway not to be calm, sensible and nice and say "Well, Da 5 Bloods still has a shot!" if we're not feeling it.....that's what makes the poll fun anyway......that it forces you to be ruthless
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 15, 2021 18:45:41 GMT
Of course it shouldn’t be written off but there’s no reason to think it has any more of a shot at winning BP that basically anything else in the conversation. Would it even be the biggest shocker if it isn’t even nominated for BP? I don't think it'd be the biggest shock if any one of those films on this poll, bar Nomadland (due to it's defacto frontrunner status) , missed out on a BP nod. It's one of those years. Agree 100%
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 16, 2021 1:46:42 GMT
Of course it shouldn’t be written off but there’s no reason to think it has any more of a shot at winning BP that basically anything else in the conversation. Would it even be the biggest shocker if it isn’t even nominated for BP? I don't think it'd be the biggest shock if any one of those films on this poll, bar Nomadland (due to it's defacto frontrunner status) , missed out on a BP nod. It's one of those years. This is true. Believe or not, I wouldn't be shocked if Black is King or The Prom missed out on BP noms.
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Post by dadsburgers on Jan 16, 2021 4:08:52 GMT
I think at this point, especially with the delayed ceremony, it's just too early to tell even who the biggest challengers are. The only thing I'm confident in is that my predictions will change over time, but for tonight my gut tells me:
1) Nomadland 2) Da 5 Bloods 3) The Trial of the Chicago 7 4) Minari 5) Judas and the Messiah 6) One Night in Miami
It's really a toss-up still though, and I think it either will be until the end, or Nomadland will have a bigger BP sweep than anything since 12 Years a Slave.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 16, 2021 16:39:12 GMT
Sticking with Chicago seven because I think it has a strong chance to win SAG ensemble and Original Screenplay. Lately it’s been almost a requirement to win a screenplay Oscar in order to win BP. 8 of the last 10 winners have won a screenplay Oscars and one of the ones that didn’t was literally a silent film.
I’ve seen that Nomadland is a front runner for Adapted but I’m not sure because it has very sparse dialog and isn’t winning screenplay awards from critics even though it is often winning Best Picture.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 16, 2021 18:02:48 GMT
I’ve seen that Nomadland is a front runner for Adapted but I’m not sure because it has very sparse dialog and isn’t winning screenplay awards from critics even though it is often winning Best Picture. I've noticed that too. I was surprised watching it knowing that it was a screenplay frontrunner because it does have very little dialogue, and there are gonna be three play adaptations in the running that are dialogue-heavy. So much waiting though. This is going to be such a long season.
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Post by quetee on Jan 17, 2021 20:24:26 GMT
The problem with D 5 Bloods is that the audience didn't really like it. I still think that is a major factor.
The Trial of the Chicago 7 just seems like an afterthought. Nobody is talking about the movie.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 17, 2021 21:08:04 GMT
I’m starting to feel that not only is Nomadland not likely to win but that it’s in 4th or 5th place at best. I could easily see TOTC7, One Night in Miami, Judas and the Black Messiah being ahead of it, if not more.
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Post by quetee on Jan 17, 2021 21:42:33 GMT
I’m starting to feel that not only is Nomadland not likely to win but that it’s in 4th or 5th place at best. I could easily see TOTC7, One Night in Miami, Judas and the Black Messiah being ahead of it, if not more. But nobody is talking about Trial of Chicago 7, that's the problem with that one. The jury is still out on Judas. It looks good though.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 17, 2021 21:55:46 GMT
I’m starting to feel that not only is Nomadland not likely to win but that it’s in 4th or 5th place at best. I could easily see TOTC7, One Night in Miami, Judas and the Black Messiah being ahead of it, if not more. But nobody is talking about Trial of Chicago 7, that's the problem with that one. The jury is still out on Judas. It looks good though. It doesn’t matter what people are talking about now. Just what they are talking about after nominations and industry awards. We are in limbo right now.
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Post by quetee on Jan 17, 2021 22:05:10 GMT
But nobody is talking about Trial of Chicago 7, that's the problem with that one. The jury is still out on Judas. It looks good though. It doesn’t matter what people are talking about now. Just what they are talking about after nominations and industry awards. We are in limbo right now. Nah, it has to be at least on the public's radar. This one failed just like Mank. Nomadland hasn't been released yet so it hasn't had the opportunity to fail.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 17, 2021 22:13:24 GMT
It doesn’t matter what people are talking about now. Just what they are talking about after nominations and industry awards. We are in limbo right now. Nah, it has to be at least on the public's radar. This one failed just like Mank. Nomadland hasn't been released yet so it hasn't had the opportunity to fail. Some best picture winners are literally never on the public’s radar. (Moonlight, Hurt Locker) The public isn’t voting. They don’t matter. If it wins SAG what does it matter if nobody was talking about it almost 3 months before the Oscars?
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 17, 2021 22:21:43 GMT
Just saw this. Thought it was ironic.
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Post by quetee on Jan 17, 2021 22:23:53 GMT
Nah, it has to be at least on the public's radar. This one failed just like Mank. Nomadland hasn't been released yet so it hasn't had the opportunity to fail. Some best picture winners are literally never on the public’s radar. (Moonlight, Hurt Locker) The public isn’t voting. They don’t matter. If it wins SAG what does it matter if nobody was talking about it almost 3 months before the Oscars? People knew about Moonlight. The Hurt locker, you are right, it was an early release and it came out of nowhere but towards the end people were talking about it. I guess my point is that Trial was in the comfortable of our homes and people are not talking about it. It made no social impact whatsoever.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 17, 2021 22:28:01 GMT
Some best picture winners are literally never on the public’s radar. (Moonlight, Hurt Locker) The public isn’t voting. They don’t matter. If it wins SAG what does it matter if nobody was talking about it almost 3 months before the Oscars? People knew about Moonlight. The Hurt locker, you are right, it was an early release and it came out of nowhere but towards the end people were talking about it. I guess my point is that Trial was in the comfortable of our homes and people are not talking about it. It made no social impact whatsoever. People knew about Moonlight because of awards success. Same with most Oscar winners to be honest. Awards season hasn’t really started yet. Most Oscar films gain viewership because of awards success not the other way around.
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Post by quetee on Jan 17, 2021 22:38:24 GMT
People knew about Moonlight. The Hurt locker, you are right, it was an early release and it came out of nowhere but towards the end people were talking about it. I guess my point is that Trial was in the comfortable of our homes and people are not talking about it. It made no social impact whatsoever. People knew about Moonlight because of awards success. Same with most Oscar winners to be honest. Awards season hasn’t really started yet. Most Oscar films gain viewership because of awards success not the other way around. I understand what you are saying but during regular Oscar season it is also about access to movies. Right now, the majority of people have access to the Netflix movies and they should be on the radar and if they are not then that doesn't look good for awards prospects. Look at Queen's Gambit, people are still talking about that show. Nobody is checking for Trials for Chicago 7.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 17, 2021 22:59:50 GMT
People knew about Moonlight because of awards success. Same with most Oscar winners to be honest. Awards season hasn’t really started yet. Most Oscar films gain viewership because of awards success not the other way around. I understand what you are saying but during regular Oscar season it is also about access to movies. Right now, the majority of people have access to the Netflix movies and they should be on the radar and if they are not then that doesn't look good for awards prospects. Look at Queen's Gambit, people are still talking about that show. Nobody is checking for Trials for Chicago 7. I just don’t think that matters this far from the Oscars. I guess agree to disagree
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 18, 2021 0:42:10 GMT
It doesn’t matter what people are talking about now. Just what they are talking about after nominations and industry awards. We are in limbo right now. Nah, it has to be at least on the public's radar. This one failed just like Mank. Nomadland hasn't been released yet so it hasn't had the opportunity to fail. TOTC7 certainly did not fail like Mank when it comes to general audiences. It’s very well liked and I think that will cross over with the industry.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 18, 2021 1:54:25 GMT
The Trial of the Chicago 7 is cruising along very nicely. It has great audience scores, it's doing well overall with regionals and pundits are still high on it. I'm not sure where this 'no one is talking about it' argument is coming from. Something like that really does' matter, as others have said, there are plenty of frontrunners that the public don't really acre about. Plus we're months away from the Oscars, and what exactly is your sample audience anyway? Just because the film isn't being talked about in the circles you travel, doesn't mean it isn't being talked about. If remaining in the public conscience was an absolute key factor, then congratulations Tenet I guess.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 18, 2021 1:56:32 GMT
I’m starting to feel that not only is Nomadland not likely to win but that it’s in 4th or 5th place at best. I could easily see TOTC7, One Night in Miami, Judas and the Black Messiah being ahead of it, if not more. I love you buddy, but where to even begin. Why suddenly so low on Nomadland?, and why so high on One Night in Miami? Trial and Judas both make sense as being top contenders, but ONIM still feels like a lower-tier BP nominee.
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