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Post by stephen on Jan 10, 2021 16:48:33 GMT
A fair bit of it is the role. Billie Holiday, on paper, is someone that is just the perfect person to stage a biopic around. A fraught life full of juicy drama that would make Judy Garland blush -- the Academy loves films about tormented artists. Diana Ross was nominated for an Oscar for playing her in 1972, so the material is definitely awards-friendly and has a proven track record. On a side-note, Tony legend Audra McDonald played Holiday to masterful effect in an adaptation of Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill. Then there's that star-in-the-making narrative, the very same that made Jennifer Hudson an overnight sensation, that could work in Andra Day's favor. But then there's the Lee Daniels of it all. True, I guess it's silly to count her out based on this considering Renee just won for Judy even given its middling reviews (although I adored Judy). Zellweger had the comeback narrative that was so intrinsically tied to her performance, though. That film was absolutely a case where people looked at the subject matter and directly tied it to the actress and that gave her all the momentum she needed.
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Post by quetee on Jan 10, 2021 17:12:17 GMT
Did you not ask me to explain why I voted? And what 'Top 7' are you referring to? On this poll, it's in 2nd place. I did, and I appreciate the response, I'm just saying I wholeheartedly disagree. I'm saying One Night in Miami isn't even in the Top 7 most likely films to win, it's a lower-tier BP nom kind of film. Have no idea why it is 2nd in this poll, considering besides you, none has even attempted to explain their reasoning. But this poll isn't something I would take too seriously anyway, considering Black is King and The Prom are still on it. excuse you, if it not to be taken seriously then that is a reflection on you and anyone else who make bonehead picks.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 11, 2021 1:43:48 GMT
I did, and I appreciate the response, I'm just saying I wholeheartedly disagree. I'm saying One Night in Miami isn't even in the Top 7 most likely films to win, it's a lower-tier BP nom kind of film. Have no idea why it is 2nd in this poll, considering besides you, none has even attempted to explain their reasoning. But this poll isn't something I would take too seriously anyway, considering Black is King and The Prom are still on it. excuse you, if it not to be taken seriously then that is a reflection on you and anyone else who make bonehead picks. Oh it wasn't an attack on you at all, I love that you run these polls!
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Post by dadsburgers on Jan 11, 2021 6:25:55 GMT
Can we add Minari next month? I feel like it should at least be in the conversation.
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Post by franklin on Jan 11, 2021 20:16:35 GMT
Nomadland vs Da 5 Bloods
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dazed
Based
Posts: 2,811
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Post by dazed on Jan 14, 2021 23:21:26 GMT
Sticking with Judas and the Black Messiah.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 15, 2021 2:24:03 GMT
How does every film on this poll have at least one vote??? Even fucking Black is King AND The Prom!?!?! Well played Michael, well played.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 15, 2021 7:47:52 GMT
so after finally seeing Nomadland... maybe this is just my disappointment talking, but it doesn't feel like a BP winner. It would certainly be an unusual one. Very little story. Meandering pace. Filled to the brim with mundane details, and McDormand's character and perf is largely kept at an arm's length. Even despite the gorgeous landscapes and piano music it left me wanting more.
I'm starting to wonder if the voters don't default to something more generic or accessible. Trial of the Chicago 7 has Green Book written all over it, only with better reviews and no controversy. It's safe and bland and "timely," and the kind of film that's likely to perform better with the industry than the critics.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 15, 2021 8:04:07 GMT
I still have a feeling The Father will get a BP nod. No chances of winning but it will be there.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 15, 2021 8:41:35 GMT
so after finally seeing Nomadland... maybe this is just my disappointment talking, but it doesn't feel like a BP winner. It would certainly be an unusual one. Very little story. Meandering pace. Filled to the brim with mundane details, and McDormand's character and perf is largely kept at an arm's length. Even despite the gorgeous landscapes and piano music it left me wanting more. I'm starting to wonder if the voters don't default to something more generic or accessible. Trial of the Chicago 7 has Green Book written all over it, only with better reviews and no controversy. It's safe and bland and "timely," and the kind of film that's likely to perform better with the industry than the critics. I think it's definitely between Nomadland and TTOTC7.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 15, 2021 8:41:52 GMT
I still have a feeling The Father will get a BP nod. No chances of winning but it will be there. I would be shocked if it didn't.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 15, 2021 9:54:15 GMT
Why the fuck is The Prom an option?
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 15, 2021 10:51:57 GMT
Why the fuck is The Prom an option? The same reason Black is King is still there, Michael and his merry band of trolls.
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Post by dadsburgers on Jan 15, 2021 14:20:10 GMT
so after finally seeing Nomadland... maybe this is just my disappointment talking, but it doesn't feel like a BP winner. It would certainly be an unusual one. Very little story. Meandering pace. Filled to the brim with mundane details, and McDormand's character and perf is largely kept at an arm's length. Even despite the gorgeous landscapes and piano music it left me wanting more. I'm starting to wonder if the voters don't default to something more generic or accessible. Trial of the Chicago 7 has Green Book written all over it, only with better reviews and no controversy. It's safe and bland and "timely," and the kind of film that's likely to perform better with the industry than the critics. My vote's (unfortunately) with Trial right now. That wasn't my reaction at all when I first saw it, but it's so broadly accessible and has very little going against it. Even my Trump-supporting father was rooting for the hippies. It would fit the bill of something like Argo or Green Book.
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Post by dadsburgers on Jan 15, 2021 14:21:36 GMT
Why the fuck is The Prom an option? The same reason Black is King is still there, Michael and his merry band of trolls. At this rate maybe the new rule should be at least two votes to stay alive
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 15, 2021 14:36:17 GMT
so after finally seeing Nomadland... maybe this is just my disappointment talking, but it doesn't feel like a BP winner. It would certainly be an unusual one. Very little story. Meandering pace. Filled to the brim with mundane details, and McDormand's character and perf is largely kept at an arm's length. Even despite the gorgeous landscapes and piano music it left me wanting more. I'm starting to wonder if the voters don't default to something more generic or accessible. Trial of the Chicago 7 has Green Book written all over it, only with better reviews and no controversy. It's safe and bland and "timely," and the kind of film that's likely to perform better with the industry than the critics. This is where I’ve been at. I think TOTC7 is way more in play to win than some people are giving it credit for. I haven’t seen News of the World yet but wonder if even that will make a late surge with the industry awards (although I expect something more socially relevant to win).
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Post by stephen on Jan 15, 2021 15:13:55 GMT
so after finally seeing Nomadland... maybe this is just my disappointment talking, but it doesn't feel like a BP winner. It would certainly be an unusual one. Very little story. Meandering pace. Filled to the brim with mundane details, and McDormand's character and perf is largely kept at an arm's length. Even despite the gorgeous landscapes and piano music it left me wanting more. I'm starting to wonder if the voters don't default to something more generic or accessible. Trial of the Chicago 7 has Green Book written all over it, only with better reviews and no controversy. It's safe and bland and "timely," and the kind of film that's likely to perform better with the industry than the critics. This is where I’ve been at. I think TOTC7 is way more in play to win than some people are giving it credit for. I haven’t seen News of the World yet but wonder if even that will make a late surge with the industry awards (although I expect something more socially relevant to win). I think if there's anything that can topple Nomadland's dominance, it might be Judas and the Black Messiah. I feel that even though late-breakers have been fading as major momentum derailers the last several years, that film has a timeliness and deals with the exact same subject matter as Trial (even some of the same characters!) while also skirting any of the backlash that might mount against Trial. Kaluuya is a stronger candidate on paper for the win that Sacha Baron Cohen. If Judas can get into Director and become a contender for Original Screenplay, I think it becomes Nomadland's biggest competition.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 15, 2021 15:26:17 GMT
This is where I’ve been at. I think TOTC7 is way more in play to win than some people are giving it credit for. I haven’t seen News of the World yet but wonder if even that will make a late surge with the industry awards (although I expect something more socially relevant to win). I think if there's anything that can topple Nomadland's dominance, it might be Judas and the Black Messiah. I feel that even though late-breakers have been fading as major momentum derailers the last several years, that film has a timeliness and deals with the exact same subject matter as Trial (even some of the same characters!) while also skirting any of the backlash that might mount against Trial. Kaluuya is a stronger candidate on paper for the win that Sacha Baron Cohen. If Judas can get into Director and become a contender for Original Screenplay, I think it becomes Nomadland's biggest competition. I think the only 3 that really have a shot at winning at this point are indeed Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Judas and the Black Messiah.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 15, 2021 15:29:44 GMT
I think what fails Chicago 7 is that it is probably perceived as an ensemble/screenplay movie, If it hadnt been directed by Sorkin, then yes, I would have believed it for Best Picture, but at the moment I feel the race is between Nomadland and Da 5 Bloods, a movie that is very competitive for Best Actor and Best Director. The others can be contenders, but at the moment, until we have a more comprehensive reaction to Judas and the Black Messiah, I think the race is between those two.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 15, 2021 15:31:49 GMT
I kinda think we've reached a point where people need to stop sleeping on this as a legit possibility:
It's come on very strong again after the "it was released to early" dismissals didn't take, it has suitable cinematic scale and ambition, and is thematically relevant to current events. On paper, it's a sound BP winner. So many other contenders have bigger drawbacks (too indie spirit, too Stagey, lack of passion etc).
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 15, 2021 15:59:58 GMT
Not buying Da 5 Bloods as a threat to win BP with its low audience scores - they're not "low" in general but they are for a BP ......check RT and IMDB and wherever you like....... and yeah I don't care much for Spike Lee and his career but Da 5 Bloods was one of his (somewhat) better ones (better than Blackkklansman too) before it goes haywire/messy at the end and he could win Best Director, yes. But it just hasn't pushed the general audience button........you can say that's racism - and knowing this board I'm sure you all will .......but Nomadland will have a degree of passion you don't see on message boards I reckon - to think there isn't passion for it is wrong.......and how is Da 5 Bloods a "contender" for Best Actor when no one in their right mind would vote against Boseman (and I'd put Lindo 4th on merit behind Hopkins, Ahmed, Boseman too).......it's a multiple nominee with a director in the #2 spot, that's all it is that I can see. Chicago 7 isn't the "Green Book" here - people loved Green Book.........it's more like the Spotlight of this year....that's the 1-2 race.....
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 15, 2021 16:01:53 GMT
As for Judas And The Black Messiah, I think it has close to zero chance of winning BP, even if it is a terrific film. A late breaking film from a director few have heard of before with no previous pedigree, isn't going to come out of nowhere and win Best Picture when it's out two months before the Oscar ceremony. The industry does not work that way.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 15, 2021 16:06:48 GMT
Not buying Da 5 Bloods as a threat to win BP with its low audience scores - they're not "low" in general but they are for a BP ......check RT and IMDB and wherever you like....... and yeah I don't care much for Spike Lee and his career but Da 5 Bloods was one of his (somewhat) better ones (better than Blackkklansman too) before it goes haywire/messy at the end and he could win Best Director, yes. But it just hasn't pushed the general audience button........you can say that's racism - and knowing this board I'm sure you all will .......but Nomadland will have a degree of passion you don't see on message boards I reckon - to think there isn't passion for it is wrong.......and how is Da 5 Bloods a "contender" for Best Actor when no one in their right mind would vote against Boseman (and I'd put Lindo 4th on merit behind Hopkins, Ahmed, Boseman too).......it's a multiple nominee with a director in the #2 spot, that's all it is that I can see. Chicago 7 isn't the "Green Book" here - people loved Green Book.........it's more like the Spotlight of this year....that's the 1-2 race..... Those low audience scores sure stopped Watchmen from winning all those Emmys, including Best Limited Series. Industry voters don't give a shit about that. And yes, online audience scores are often generally irrelevant (for good or ill) and unreliable when it comes to projects with mostly black casts or that tackle race or racism in a way that might make some uncomfortable.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 15, 2021 16:12:00 GMT
Not buying Da 5 Bloods as a threat to win BP with its low audience scores - they're not "low" in general but they are for a BP ......check RT and IMDB and wherever you like....... and yeah I don't care much for Spike Lee and his career but Da 5 Bloods was one of his (somewhat) better ones (better than Blackkklansman too) before it goes haywire/messy at the end and he could win Best Director, yes. But it just hasn't pushed the general audience button........you can say that's racism - and knowing this board I'm sure you all will .......but Nomadland will have a degree of passion you don't see on message boards I reckon - to think there isn't passion for it is wrong.......and how is Da 5 Bloods a "contender" for Best Actor when no one in their right mind would vote against Boseman (and I'd put Lindo 4th on merit behind Hopkins, Ahmed, Boseman too).......it's a multiple nominee with a director in the #2 spot, that's all it is that I can see. Chicago 7 isn't the "Green Book" here - people loved Green Book.........it's more like the Spotlight of this year....that's the 1-2 race..... Those low audience scores sure stopped Watchmen from winning all those EmmysEmmys/Oscars ......Apples/Oranges........
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 15, 2021 16:12:47 GMT
Not buying Da 5 Bloods as a threat to win BP with its low audience scores - they're not "low" in general but they are for a BP ......check RT and IMDB and wherever you like....... and yeah I don't care much for Spike Lee and his career but Da 5 Bloods was one of his (somewhat) better ones (better than Blackkklansman too) before it goes haywire/messy at the end and he could win Best Director, yes. But it just hasn't pushed the general audience button........you can say that's racism - and knowing this board I'm sure you all will .......but Nomadland will have a degree of passion you don't see on message boards I reckon - to think there isn't passion for it is wrong.......and how is Da 5 Bloods a "contender" for Best Actor when no one in their right mind would vote against Boseman (and I'd put Lindo 4th on merit behind Hopkins, Ahmed, Boseman too).......it's a multiple nominee with a director in the #2 spot, that's all it is that I can see. Chicago 7 isn't the "Green Book" here - people loved Green Book.........it's more like the Spotlight of this year....that's the 1-2 race..... Not saying Lindo is really competitive to win, but he's the closest thing to "competitive" there is, considering the critics awards he's won.
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