Film Socialism
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Post by Film Socialism on Oct 8, 2020 23:36:07 GMT
You know what's chilling? If COVID never happened I think Trump could've handily won this next election. It took a global disaster to turn this nightmare train around. Or.... even demonstrate a shred of competency or the seriousness that literally any professional politician would've shown. Trump's highest approval in 2020 was back in April when for that hot minute he was actually projecting concern and copping to the gravity of the crises in the COVID talks, and the country was going into lockdown and we were having a little rally-around-the-flag moment. But that went away REAL quick when he started using the talks as a sounding board for his own idiotic ramblings, and when things like mask-wearing became politicized and his administration consistently came out on the side of spoiled brats. He's a tactical nightmare. Honestly I bet the GOP collectively lets out a sigh of relief when he goes. the GOP support for trump has routinely been through the roof, i legitimately do not know of a time in modern history where someone was more beloved by their party lol. mitt romney voting against him like once made national headlines
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 9, 2020 14:40:52 GMT
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Oct 10, 2020 19:41:30 GMT
Trump is very obviously winning this election and it’s possible he wins by a much greater margin than in 2016. I predict 362 electoral votes for Trump and 176 for Biden. Trolling or did someone fail to hide mommy's crack pipe when you were brewing in her womb?? #honestquestion
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LaraQ
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Post by LaraQ on Oct 10, 2020 20:06:23 GMT
I don't know how much truth there is to this.
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Lubezki
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the social distancing
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Post by Lubezki on Oct 10, 2020 22:19:02 GMT
I don't know how much truth there is to this. Can’t see the tweet hun....what does it say?
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LaraQ
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Post by LaraQ on Oct 10, 2020 22:57:05 GMT
I don't know how much truth there is to this. Can’t see the tweet hun....what does it say? Looks like its been deleted.It basically said that Trump held a meeting with his advisers,children etc about whether he should resign.This would only happen if Mike Pence agreed to pardon him to prevent him being prosecuted/jailed when he leaves office.
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Lubezki
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the social distancing
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Post by Lubezki on Oct 11, 2020 0:17:38 GMT
Can’t see the tweet hun....what does it say? Looks like its been deleted.It basically said that Trump held a meeting with his advisers,children etc about whether he should resign.This would only happen if Mike Pence agreed to pardon him to prevent him being prosecuted/jailed when he leaves office. Oh lord lol.....as much as I and many other people would love for that to be true, this man’s ego and narcissism makes me think that there is absolutely no way this would ever enter his thoughts. I mean he is gleefully trekking across the country holding mass rallies despite still being a highly COVID infected buffoon. Not only that, but he’s clearly in the process of rigging the election. It’s just an absolute utter disgrace on every level imaginable.
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Oct 11, 2020 16:26:06 GMT
Trolling or did someone fail to hide mommy's crack pipe when you were brewing in her womb?? #honestquestion I recall people making similar comments to me 4 years ago when I correctly predicted the result. I could be wrong about the electoral votes but he’s definitely winning. Okay, so it's that mommy smoked crack then. Question answered. And this is definitely not 2016, IMBECILE. Swing voters weren't dying from a pandemic that #OrangeTwat ignored and then made much worse. Your cult leader is going down in flames!! Ignore the polls (which, again, telling very different story than 2016), ignore REALITY. Shit, even GOP insiders are saying it's looking bleak. Also, a RWNJ living in Spain?? Should be interesting. 😒
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 12, 2020 1:00:51 GMT
I recall people making similar comments to me 4 years ago when I correctly predicted the result. I could be wrong about the electoral votes but he’s definitely winning. He isn't winning if he doesn't get enough electoral votes, and for him to get enough electoral votes he needs to win the midwest which he barely won in 2016. All Biden has to do is flip Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. That's literally all he has to do. Never mind the fact that Ohio, Georgia, and Iowa are currently toss-ups and that Biden is ahead in North Carolina, Arizona, and Florida. To believe Trump is going to win you have to believe that he takes every single one of those states plus Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. It's not gonna happen.
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Film Socialism
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Post by Film Socialism on Oct 12, 2020 2:10:05 GMT
lol people are going to use the "it's gonna be 2016 all over again!" bit right up until election night. i mean the media is pretty responsible for both the 16 and the 20 narratives but people who actually followed the 16 election knew that a trump win wasn't that out of the ordinary. a trump win now would be a colossal upset. this was reported in an opposite way - if you asked a regular person in '16 who just read the news sometimes they would have probably said that hillary was very favored, and if you asked them now they would probably say they didn't know or that it's close or something.
tl;dr learn the difference between a 70/30 lead and a 85/15 lead
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Post by urbanpatrician on Oct 12, 2020 2:14:50 GMT
lol people are going to use the "it's gonna be 2016 all over again!" bit right up until election night. i mean the media is pretty responsible for both the 16 and the 20 narratives but people who actually followed the 16 election knew that a trump win wasn't that out of the ordinary. a trump win now would be a colossal upset. this was reported in an opposite way - if you asked a regular person in '16 who just read the news sometimes they would have probably said that hillary was very favored, and if you asked them now they would probably say they didn't know or that it's close or something. tl;dr learn the difference between a 70/30 lead and a 85/15 lead I don't know. A lot of polls suggest Clinton was up by a bigger margin than Biden in 2016 at this time. I remember 8+ in all Rust Belt states. Biden is leading for sure, but he's polling slightly less well than Clinton. Depends on what sites you use. But that's just my point... we don't know for sure which poll is accurate or not if they say different things.
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Film Socialism
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Post by Film Socialism on Oct 12, 2020 2:18:52 GMT
lol people are going to use the "it's gonna be 2016 all over again!" bit right up until election night. i mean the media is pretty responsible for both the 16 and the 20 narratives but people who actually followed the 16 election knew that a trump win wasn't that out of the ordinary. a trump win now would be a colossal upset. this was reported in an opposite way - if you asked a regular person in '16 who just read the news sometimes they would have probably said that hillary was very favored, and if you asked them now they would probably say they didn't know or that it's close or something. tl;dr learn the difference between a 70/30 lead and a 85/15 lead I don't know. A lot of polls suggest Clinton was up by a bigger margin than Biden in 2016 at this time. I remember 8+ in all Rust Belt states. Biden is leading for sure, but he's polling slightly less well than Clinton. Depends on what sites you use. But that's just my point... we don't know for sure which poll is accurate or not if they say different things. the meta-analysis that i've seen paints a pretty clear wider lead this time around - and predictive models are putting him higher specifically with the knowledge of '16 (which under-estimated trump, so the newer models will course correct this in some way). i wouldn't fault someone for predicting hillary in '16, i would fault them for betting at 1 to 10 odds on her. i can't really say that this go around
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Post by urbanpatrician on Oct 12, 2020 2:32:19 GMT
I don't know. A lot of polls suggest Clinton was up by a bigger margin than Biden in 2016 at this time. I remember 8+ in all Rust Belt states. Biden is leading for sure, but he's polling slightly less well than Clinton. Depends on what sites you use. But that's just my point... we don't know for sure which poll is accurate or not if they say different things. the meta-analysis that i've seen paints a pretty clear wider lead this time around - and predictive models are putting him higher specifically with the knowledge of '16 (which under-estimated trump, so the newer models will course correct this in some way). i wouldn't fault someone for predicting hillary in '16, i would fault them for betting at 1 to 10 odds on her. i can't really say that this go around Ok, to each his own. I'm sure we're all using different sources. And 2016 failed to account for a huge sect of the population I think was the bigger problem rather than any polling or technical error. Polls are always gonna leave people out. I'm not trying to convince you of anything, but this poll was released just 2 days ago...... and I don't know if anyone can say for sure if Biden is leading more than Clinton did.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 12, 2020 3:44:07 GMT
Pollsters have ways of weighting their data. It's just as likely (probably more likely) that some of them are overcompensating for Trump esp. in red states and that polling errors may actually favor Biden. Polls weren't weighted for education in 2016, that was a big issue. And there were significantly more undecided voters that swung to Trump last minute, some reasons being the Comey letter, Hilary being controversial generally even among liberals, Trump being a political unknown, etc.). Here's a nifty guide that FiveThirtyEight published back in June about how to approach polls in 2020. Note that sticking to all those criteria in pouring over polls (as I've been doing, like a crazy person) would still point you to a substantial Biden win. I'm also pretty sure Clinton's election day polling avg. was 4 points in 2016. Biden's is 10.5 with only three weeks left to go.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 12, 2020 4:15:41 GMT
btw I'm not sure how much this factors into that particular RealClearPolitics graphic but unless I'm mistaken RCP doesn't weight different pollsters based on bias or accuracy but just lump them all in together, which doesn't let them compensate for mediocre polling from Rasmussen or Trafalgar Group (or god forbid, SurveyMonkey) the way FiveThirtyEight can. If a poll is better-performing generally, it should be more trusted generally. The only polls I reference in this thread are the ones rated B or higher on FiveThirtyEight, and when a series of Monmouth University polls (A+ rated) show Biden up 8-12 points in PA, I pay attention to that.
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Post by stabcaesar on Oct 12, 2020 6:37:06 GMT
tl;dr learn the difference between a 70/30 lead and a 85/15 lead I do think Biden is winning but mid-October 2016 Hillary's lead was also 85/15, it then went back down to 70/10 before election. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/As you can see, according to 2016 forecasts Trump was never once ahead of Hillary (except on July 30, I don't remember what happened then), though he did come very close twice. He however never came close to Biden's chance of winning according to forecast, but the gap was never as wide as between Hillary and him at its widest until like last week. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/Ok, to each his own. I'm sure we're all using different sources. And 2016 failed to account for a huge sect of the population I think was the bigger problem rather than any polling or technical error. Polls are always gonna leave people out. I'm not trying to convince you of anything, but this poll was released just 2 days ago...... and I don't know if anyone can say for sure if Biden is leading more than Clinton did. I think the caveat here is that in 2016 there were more undecided voters, so Clinton's lead was more vulnerable than Biden's lead now. That said, I agree that the Dems are far too optimistic about the election result. Anything can happen between now and November.
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cherry68
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Post by cherry68 on Oct 12, 2020 6:56:49 GMT
My question is, do American people like Biden? Or, considering he's pretty ancient, do they find Harris an endearing candidate?
I have the suspect that people who don't vote for Trump and don't like Biden either won't vote period. I doubt many people will make an effort to vote for the candidate they dislike less.
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Post by stabcaesar on Oct 12, 2020 7:10:21 GMT
My question is, do American people like Biden? Or, considering he's pretty ancient, do they find Harris an endearing candidate? I have the suspect that people who don't vote for Trump and don't like Biden either won't vote period. I doubt many people will make an effort to vote for the candidate they dislike less. 'Not liking' the other candidate can be a viable enough campaign strategy for elections in other countries, but for America I'm not so sure.
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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 12, 2020 9:51:02 GMT
My question is, do American people like Biden? Or, considering he's pretty ancient, do they find Harris an endearing candidate? I have the suspect that people who don't vote for Trump and don't like Biden either won't vote period. I doubt many people will make an effort to vote for the candidate they dislike less.Exactly right.......this is a singular and sad moment in US history in this way...... I personally will not vote this year as I've said many times......I will vote in my local races but leave the top of the ticket blank........ But I do believe Biden wins and the polls are more "mostly" accurate this year.....though some states do not make sense to me on a surface level - was Texas ever really "in play" ...............or was that on some level a kind of polling BS? I think there's some of that in play too not in the polls as much as how they are spun - the accuracy of the polls vs. the way the polls are then referenced and presented to the US public.
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cherry68
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Post by cherry68 on Oct 12, 2020 11:07:41 GMT
^ besides, I don't think online polls can really be representative of voters population. Lots of voters don't use the Internet to answer polls. Phone calls are more accurate imo.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2020 12:57:57 GMT
cherry68 - Yes, people like Joe Biden. And all of these polls that we've been referencing have been conducted over the phone.
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Post by michael128 on Oct 12, 2020 15:30:58 GMT
Pollsters have ways of weighting their data. It's just as likely (probably more likely) that some of them are overcompensating for Trump esp. in red states and that polling errors may actually favor Biden. Polls weren't weighted for education in 2016, that was a big issue. And there were significantly more undecided voters that swung to Trump last minute, some reasons being the Comey letter, Hilary being controversial generally even among liberals, Trump being a political unknown, etc.). Here's a nifty guide that FiveThirtyEight published back in June about how to approach polls in 2020. Note that sticking to all those criteria in pouring over polls (as I've been doing, like a crazy person) would still point you to a substantial Biden win. I'm also pretty sure Clinton's election day polling avg. was 4 points in 2016. Biden's is 10.5 with only three weeks left to go. So what makes you so sure it’s going to be different this time?
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Oct 12, 2020 16:08:40 GMT
My question is, do American people like Biden? Or, considering he's pretty ancient, do they find Harris an endearing candidate? I have the suspect that people who don't vote for Trump and don't like Biden either won't vote period. I doubt many people will make an effort to vote for the candidate they dislike less. You couldn't be more DEAD WRONG if you tried. There are literally THOUSANDS of Bernie-style progressives who can't stand Biden and are still 100% in on voting for him cuz they (CORRECTLY) perceive Trump as a monster and an existential nightmare. "Lesser of two evils" votes are a HUGE number in EVERY American election. Honestly, since you're an anti-choice fanatic, I think this disingenuous theory is just wishful thinking on your part.
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cherry68
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Post by cherry68 on Oct 12, 2020 17:09:29 GMT
My question is, do American people like Biden? Or, considering he's pretty ancient, do they find Harris an endearing candidate? I have the suspect that people who don't vote for Trump and don't like Biden either won't vote period. I doubt many people will make an effort to vote for the candidate they dislike less. You couldn't be more DEAD WRONG if you tried. There are literally THOUSANDS of Bernie-style progressives who can't stand Biden and are still 100% in on voting for him cuz they (CORRECTLY) perceive Trump as a monster and an existential nightmare. "Lesser of two evils" votes are a HUGE number in EVERY American election. Honestly, since you're an anti-choice fanatic, I think this disingenuous theory is just wishful thinking on your part.I don't get the point you're making. Biden has always been pro life, as he's a Catholic. He declared otherwise only recently, clearly for electoral reasons. See here www.axios.com/joe-biden-abortion-hyde-amendment-497be3ef-bc98-482b-9ed2-28cf10a4f94b.htmlSecondly, I'm not an American, so I'm not telling them whom to vote for. I'm always suspicious of foreigners inviting people to vote for a president or a party in another nation, it's usually for their own countries ' advantage.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 12, 2020 17:51:12 GMT
So what makes you so sure it’s going to be different this time? It would have to be a lot different. A Trump win in 2020 would be a significantly larger upset than his win in 2016. But there's a few reasons off the top of my head: - Biden is more popular with independents than Clinton was - Biden is less unlikeable and less controversial than Hillary - Biden hasn't encountered a single controversy since the assault allegation months ago... Clinton was hounded by them all throughout 2016 and 2015 - Biden's lead is much greater than Clinton's (she never polled above 50% nationally for starters) - Trump was a political unknown so there wasn't as strong a contingent motivated to vote against him (Trump won in 2016 because people hated Clinton, Biden will win in 2020 because people hate Trump) - There are much fewer undecideds - Trump barely won PA, WI, and MI in 2016. Biden only needs those states, bottom line. If you think Trump is going to win, you have to preface that prediction on the idea that he retakes states he barely won in 2016 which seems dubious - We were not in the middle of an international health crisis in 2016 that was bungled by GOP leadership - Liberals were comfortable/complacent after eight years of Obama and not fired up to vote for a controversial insider like Clinton - Bernie supporters were more likely to go rogue in 2016 than they are now - There's no third party candidate to steal liberal/moderate votes - The stakes are much higher for liberals in 2020 with RBG's death and there will be higher liberal turnout (like there was in 2018) I mean, I could probably go on but you get the picture.
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