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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 2, 2020 1:52:47 GMT
state poll averages now have Biden up by half a point in Georgia, up 1.5 points in Ohio (!), and only half a point behind in Iowa. So he has gotten a slight post-debate uptick which is more bad news for Trump because conventional wisdom two months ago was that Trump was the favorite to gain momentum from the debates. At this point any ground not gained (or re-gained) by Trump is ground conceded. If he can't win back over independents and moderates, he can't win fairly, period. The FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Biden an 80% chance of winning but Silver and the gang have repeatedly stated that there's about 10% wiggle room in that projection which assumes Trump can back and that if the election was held today, Biden's chances would increase to over 90%. All Biden has to do is not lose ground, and actually he's been gaining ground in red states like Ohio and Georgia (he's now ahead in both) and in Iowa where Trump maintains a flimsy lead. It'll be very interesting to watch the polls the next few days. How long does this uptick last? What happens after the next debate?
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Post by michael128 on Oct 2, 2020 2:44:50 GMT
state poll averages now have Biden up by half a point in Georgia, up 1.5 points in Ohio (!), and only half a point behind in Iowa. So he has gotten a slight post-debate uptick which is more bad news for Trump because conventional wisdom two months ago was that Trump was the favorite to gain momentum from the debates. At this point any ground not gained (or re-gained) by Trump is ground conceded. If he can't win back over independents and moderates, he can't win fairly, period. The FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Biden an 80% chance of winning but Silver and the gang have repeatedly stated that there's about 10% wiggle room in that projection which assumes Trump can back and that if the election was held today, Biden's chances would increase to over 90%. All Biden has to do is not lose ground, and actually he's been gaining ground in red states like Ohio and Georgia (he's now ahead in both) and in Iowa where Trump maintains a flimsy lead. It'll be very interesting to watch the polls the next few days. How long does this uptick last? What happens after the next debate? What makes you think polls matter? I’ve noticed you referencing them for a while now
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 2, 2020 3:02:44 GMT
What makes you think polls matter? I’ve noticed you referencing them for a while now Polls are the only way to approximate public opinion. What makes you think polls don't matter?
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Post by michael128 on Oct 2, 2020 3:15:37 GMT
What makes you think polls matter? I’ve noticed you referencing them for a while now Polls are the only way to approximate public opinion. What makes you think polls don't matter? Everything I’ve seen since I’ve started paying attention to politics. I’m looking forward to seeing if everything you’ve predicted will come true.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 2, 2020 4:50:41 GMT
Polls are the only way to approximate public opinion. What makes you think polls don't matter? Everything I’ve seen since I’ve started paying attention to politics. I’m looking forward to seeing if everything you’ve predicted will come true. They're not my predictions dude, I'm just the resident obsessive FiveThirtyEight whisperer. And their forecast isn't just based on polls btw, but I do happen to think the polls we're currently seeing reflect an approximation of what's going on in public opinion. First thing to remember is that Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and his "upset win" was a pretty average polling error where Clinton was only up nationally by I think 3ish points (a far cry from Biden's current lead). What helped Trump in 2016 was that he was a anti-establishment political unknown who attracted independents and working class whites from the midwest. There also weren't many quality state polls and they weren't weighting by education. He doesn't have that path in 2020.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Oct 2, 2020 12:19:14 GMT
I find it astonishing that after the covid mismanagement and his grade-school antics in the past 4 years, Biden is still merely maintaining a moderate lead in polls and Trump still has a non-insignificant chance to win. It's even more astonishing considering this is one of the oldest democracies in the world. It's truly very sad to watch. It makes sense simply because politics in the US is not about ideas or who the candidate is, but it's a team sport, and there's only two of them. The goal is beat the other side, even if your coach/star player is dirty or an asshole, just like sport fans won't stop supporting their team if they dislike who's currently playing for them. You could have a serial killer as candidate, in either party, and he'd still have 40% of the vote at least.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2020 13:05:12 GMT
As of right now, it looks like Biden has a better chance of winning like, Alaska and South Carolina, than Agent Orange has of winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Also, there is absolutely no point in having more Presidential debates. Let Pence and Harris have their night, and let's move on - the American people have all they need to make a decision at this point.
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 2, 2020 17:04:41 GMT
I can't be the only one who still gets a kick out of the title of this thread, right?
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Post by DeepArcher on Oct 2, 2020 17:07:47 GMT
I can't be the only one who still gets a kick out of the title of this thread, right? I really, really hope it never changes.
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LaraQ
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Post by LaraQ on Oct 2, 2020 20:02:36 GMT
I can't be the only one who still gets a kick out of the title of this thread, right? It's like Trump wrote it himself.
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Post by quetee on Oct 2, 2020 20:38:47 GMT
I can't be the only one who still gets a kick out of the title of this thread, right? The cute guys at 44 seconds. LMAO.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 3, 2020 23:19:43 GMT
predictably Trump getting COVID is driving up his approval. At 44.5% now and steadily approaching the 45+ highpoint he reached in April (which was the highest he ever averaged since Jan 2017). Congress finally passing a stimulus package might push him through that ceiling. on the other hand, post-debate Times/Sienna polls out of Florida and Pennsylvania are bad for Trump. Both hugely important states. Trump needs both to win, Biden only needs Pennsylvania (assuming he carries Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin). Times/Sienna has an A+ rating and is one of the best-performing pollsters in the FiveThirtyEight network.
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dazed
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Post by dazed on Oct 6, 2020 15:47:25 GMT
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Post by Joaquim on Oct 6, 2020 16:41:45 GMT
Is he at a 95% chance to win yet? Waiting to place my bet on trump winning until then, or maybe at 80-85%
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 6, 2020 17:16:51 GMT
Biden's post-debate/post-COVID polls from high-performing pollsters in the states have been positive (poor choice of words ) too. - up 4 points in NC (Public Policy Polling) - 5/6 points in FL (Sienna/Times Upshot, University of North Florida) - 8 points in AZ (Sienna/Times Upshot) - 7 to 12 points in PA (Sienna/Times Upshot, Monmouth University) - 8 points in NH (Emerson College) and his avg. national lead is currently at 8.8 points. I don't know if Trump has any legitimate path anymore. It's looking just as dire in October as it was back in June. We thought he'd make up ground but he hasn't like at all.
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dazed
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Post by dazed on Oct 6, 2020 17:46:41 GMT
Biden's post-debate/post-COVID polls from high-performing pollsters in the states have been positive (poor choice of words ) too. - up 4 points in NC (Public Policy Polling) - 5/6 points in FL (Sienna/Times Upshot, University of North Florida) - 8 points in AZ (Sienna/Times Upshot) - 7 to 12 points in PA (Sienna/Times Upshot, Monmouth University) - 8 points in NH (Emerson College) and his avg. national lead is currently at 8.8 points. I don't know if Trump has any legitimate path anymore. It's looking just as dire in October as it was back in June. We thought he'd make up ground but he hasn't like at all. As someone that said Biden wouldn’t beat Trump, I think it’s pretty much over for Trump. I don’t see any path either. This isn’t anything like 2016 in regards to the polls. This is an interesting read:
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Post by Allenism on Oct 6, 2020 21:46:59 GMT
You know what's chilling? If COVID never happened I think Trump could've handily won this next election. It took a global disaster to turn this nightmare train around.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2020 22:25:07 GMT
You know what's chilling? If COVID never happened I think Trump could've handily won this next election. It took a global disaster to turn this nightmare train around. I still find it really hard to believe that he would have won Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin again, even without COVID. Remember that it was only about 70,000 votes that put him in the White House to begin with.
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Post by Joaquim on Oct 7, 2020 17:31:46 GMT
Fully believe we’ve reached a point of no return in the US, we’ve crossed the rubicon. America may not be over, but America as we know it may be. We are fucked regardless of the outcome of this election and there’s nothing you can do about it except sit back and laugh as the chaos unfolds.
No, seriously, Trump’s “Mussolini moment” from a few nights ago gets 10x funnier when you realize the guy’s just high as balls and roid raging at everyone in the White House 24/7. This is a guy who claims to be clean as a whistle, no drugs or alcohol (except wine on special occasions). This means that this man’s drug tolerance levels should be at 0 and he’s out there living on the edge, having the time of his life
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Post by cheesecake on Oct 7, 2020 22:52:49 GMT
You know what's chilling? If COVID never happened I think Trump could've handily won this next election. It took a global disaster to turn this nightmare train around. It's astounding that he couldn't even do the bare minimum. He could have milked the whole situation with ease and it would have done wonders -- MAGA masks and all (because at least people would be wearing them), and yet...
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Post by cheesecake on Oct 7, 2020 22:53:18 GMT
I can't be the only one who still gets a kick out of the title of this thread, right? Wow. I didn't even notice.
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Film Socialism
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Post by Film Socialism on Oct 8, 2020 3:18:37 GMT
i correctly called trump in '16 but i think biden has it. however this year is insane and i believe this has to continue in some way. if nothing changes between now and a month from now there's no chance; i believe there is some unknown event that could turn the tides however.
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Post by Joaquim on Oct 8, 2020 4:01:02 GMT
Back in Joe Biden’s day, having the 25th amendment invoked on you just meant you were assassinated by the praetorian guard
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 8, 2020 15:23:27 GMT
Biden's current 9.8 avg. in the national polls is higher than it's been all year.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 8, 2020 22:14:08 GMT
You know what's chilling? If COVID never happened I think Trump could've handily won this next election. It took a global disaster to turn this nightmare train around. Or.... even demonstrate a shred of competency or the seriousness that literally any professional politician would've shown. Trump's highest approval in 2020 was back in April when for that hot minute he was actually projecting concern and copping to the gravity of the crises in the COVID talks, and the country was going into lockdown and we were having a little rally-around-the-flag moment. But that went away REAL quick when he started using the talks as a sounding board for his own idiotic ramblings, and when things like mask-wearing became politicized and his administration consistently came out on the side of spoiled brats. He's a tactical nightmare. Honestly I bet the GOP collectively lets out a sigh of relief when he goes.
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