filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Dec 11, 2019 18:45:30 GMT
You can cling to exceptions all you like, doesn't change the nature of the race. But you are jumping way ahead. Phoenix hasn't even won the Globe. And it's not like he's is undeniable at this point - like i.e., DDL was - who started dominating with the critics awards, straight through to the televised pre-cursors.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 11, 2019 18:48:12 GMT
But you are jumping way ahead. Phoenix hasn't even won the Globe. And it's not like he's is undeniable at this point - like i.e., DDL was - who started dominating with the critics awards, straight through to the televised pre-cursors. You're strawmanning now. 1. I did not say Phoenix is undeniable. 2. I did not say Phoenix will win the Globe. What I did say was that Baumbach being snubbed in favor of Phillips favors Phoenix over Driver at the Globes, and that winning the Globe would be a huge leg-up at the Oscars. Argue against that.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Dec 11, 2019 18:56:27 GMT
Then there's Regina King. People here were convinced she would not win the Oscar without either a SAG or BAFTA. She has passion to pull off something extremely rare thanks to being a critic sweeper. She won all but maybe 3-4 critic awards. I’m not sure what that has to do with this Best Actor race, though? Driver can win, but it’s not looking likely with the way things have played out. He didn’t turn out to be the critic force he was expected to be and the film took pretty significant hits at SAG, GG and AACTA. I feel like Phoenix is officially something of a frontrunner at this point, but I wouldn’t be stunned if it went another way You're using SAG as the end all be all. And my point - there have been very good examples in recent years where a SAG snub have translated into big Oscar wins. It's too early at this point.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Dec 11, 2019 18:59:45 GMT
But you are jumping way ahead. Phoenix hasn't even won the Globe. And it's not like he's is undeniable at this point - like i.e., DDL was - who started dominating with the critics awards, straight through to the televised pre-cursors. You're strawmanning now. 1. I did not say Phoenix is undeniable. 2. I did not say Phoenix will win the Globe. What I did say was that Baumbach being snubbed in favor of Phillips favors Phoenix over Driver at the Globes, and that winning the Globe would be a huge leg-up at the Oscars. Argue against that. Very easy to argue against - Phoenix hasn't won the Globe.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 11, 2019 19:18:50 GMT
god these are so weird.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 11, 2019 19:22:59 GMT
Very easy to argue against - Phoenix hasn't won the Globe. Saying Phoenix hasn't won the Globe isn't an argument against Phillips getting in over Baumbach being favorable to Phoenix. Try again.
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Post by ibbi on Dec 11, 2019 19:35:01 GMT
No Marriage Story ensemble, no Little Women anywhere. SAG loves JJL This should be the stage backdrop on awards night:
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Post by evilbliss on Dec 11, 2019 19:43:33 GMT
Call me crazy but I still think De Niro will get nominated at the Oscars I think so too
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2019 21:27:56 GMT
-Still not convinced that Nyong'o is getting in. -Johansson is finally a SAG nominee but I doubt she will repeat at the Oscars in both categories. -Was expecting The Farewell to get nominated for ensemble.
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Post by PromNightCarrie on Dec 11, 2019 21:30:23 GMT
Glad to see Lupita Nyong'o getting some recognition. I thought she was brilliant in Us.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 11, 2019 22:46:52 GMT
Brad Pitt now has 6 SAG Film Ensemble nominations, tying Russell Crowe. To my knowledge, no actor has more than 6.
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Post by stephen on Dec 11, 2019 22:52:55 GMT
Brad Pitt now has 6 SAG Film Ensemble nominations, tying Russell Crowe. To my knowledge, no actor has more than 6. Blanchett has six as well. That is, indeed, the max.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 12, 2019 0:14:40 GMT
BuT PaRaSiTE WON't GeT NomInATEd FoR BEsT PictURe DeepArcher This is genuinely unbelievable. My first thought was that dazed just put in the OP to fuck with people ... I'm so confused! And considering SAG is easily the most populist of the precursors generally (i.e., the least likely to give two shits about Parasite), this practically confirms it as a BP nominee. And it got in over Knives Out and fucking Marriage Story????!!! I'm so, so confused. Also ... this puts Bombshell in a comfortable position and nearly solidifies Egerton as a lock (most people will still deny it, we'll see when he wins the Globe and gets in at BAFTA too), both of which I've been predicting that most people haven't, and it also puts Irishman ahead of Marriage Story (good for personal sanity) ... so I'll take that trade-off. Wouldn't be so confused, if you had just listened to me from the start . Everyone and their dog likes Parasite.
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Post by DeepArcher on Dec 12, 2019 1:10:13 GMT
This is genuinely unbelievable. My first thought was that dazed just put in the OP to fuck with people ... I'm so confused! And considering SAG is easily the most populist of the precursors generally (i.e., the least likely to give two shits about Parasite), this practically confirms it as a BP nominee. And it got in over Knives Out and fucking Marriage Story????!!! I'm so, so confused. Also ... this puts Bombshell in a comfortable position and nearly solidifies Egerton as a lock (most people will still deny it, we'll see when he wins the Globe and gets in at BAFTA too), both of which I've been predicting that most people haven't, and it also puts Irishman ahead of Marriage Story (good for personal sanity) ... so I'll take that trade-off. Wouldn't be so confused, if you had just listened to me from the start . Everyone and their dog likes Parasite. There is no way in hell that a single Boomer likes Parasite. I can only stretch my imagination so far!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2019 1:12:26 GMT
Egerton should easily nab a BAFTA nomination and will probably win the Globe, too - are y'all thinking he's in with Oscar?
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Post by DeepArcher on Dec 12, 2019 1:15:57 GMT
Egerton should easily nab a BAFTA nomination and will probably win the Globe, too - are y'all thinking he's in with Oscar? Yes. That's exactly what I've been saying all season.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2019 1:19:21 GMT
Egerton should easily nab a BAFTA nomination and will probably win the Globe, too - are y'all thinking he's in with Oscar? Yes. That's exactly what I've been saying all season. He's peaking at the perfect time. And he's such a worthy choice - he's excellent as Elton John.
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Lubezki
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Post by Lubezki on Dec 12, 2019 1:25:00 GMT
Egerton should easily nab a BAFTA nomination and will probably win the Globe, too - are y'all thinking he's in with Oscar? I think he definitely stands a chance; he’s gained traction just at the right time when folks may have started to write him off.
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AKenjiB
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Post by AKenjiB on Dec 12, 2019 2:03:30 GMT
Damn, no Sandler or De Niro. I’m assuming Uncut Gems was eligible.
The Succession snubs hurt too.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 12, 2019 2:55:30 GMT
Wouldn't be so confused, if you had just listened to me from the start . Everyone and their dog likes Parasite. There is no way in hell that a single Boomer likes Parasite. I can only stretch my imagination so far! I mean my parents really like it but go off I guess.
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Post by DeepArcher on Dec 12, 2019 7:08:20 GMT
There is no way in hell that a single Boomer likes Parasite. I can only stretch my imagination so far! I mean my parents really like it but go off I guess. I'm sorry! The narrative around this film is just so confusing to me!
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 12, 2019 10:31:46 GMT
I mean my parents really like it but go off I guess. I'm sorry! The narrative around this film is just so confusing to me! It's ok! You like it, I like it, everyone seemingly likes it, lets just bask in its success and move on
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