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Post by iheartamyadams on Dec 11, 2019 15:34:52 GMT
Replace Egerton with Banderas, Foxx with Song, Kidman with Pugh and those might be my Oscar predictions. Yeah, hopefully people will stop only targeting Hanks as a potential snub in that category and realize that Hopkins is vulnerable too. Two Popes has had a miserable critic and Guild run. AFI, NBR, SAG and ACTCA shutouts, virtually no critic presence. It would be in the exact same position as LW if not for the Globes
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Post by mattfincher on Dec 11, 2019 15:35:01 GMT
My theory was Irishman and Hollywood couldn’t win without getting their lead actor in. DiCaprio is looking a lot more likely than De Niro now, so Hollywood has the upper hand. But watch out for fucking Parasite. Song is 100% gonna happen at the Oscars over Hopkins or Hanks. Foxx is obviously a SAG only thing.
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 11, 2019 15:36:58 GMT
Lupita Nyong’o, “Us” Yup, I knew it! I predicted that she would take Ronan's spot! 😁 That is going to be a really interesting category to track because both Nyong’o and Erivo will be lone noms. Farewell and LW should be stronger than both of their films, but will it matter if they’re not Picture nominees? Ronan will likely get into BAFTA, but I think this is probably the end of the road for Awkwafina. I wanted Awkwafina to get a nomination, but I had a feeling that she and The Farewell were being overestimated even more than I was overestimating MS and 1917 by some people. The Farewell never caught on with the top critics groups at all, and Nyong'o got the push that Awkwafina really needed instead. It did get into ACE, but underperformed at the Globes. Now it completely misses at SAG despite Parasite getting in. Plus again I bring up how unfortunate it is that Asian actors, especially actresses, just haven't fared well with AMPAS. Nyong'o could miss, but she made SAG, and is a former nominee, and Us could conceivably sneak into Best Original Screenplay still. Erivo has the role and will likely hit everywhere. So I think Awkwafina could be out. I think she might not even be seventh if Ronan hits BAFTA because I think LW will show up on nomination morning in some categories although probably not BP anymore.
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Post by iheartamyadams on Dec 11, 2019 15:37:19 GMT
Damn... Bombshell might actually pull a The Favorite with it's three actress. SAG loves Kidman, but she wasn't being predicted here. Jamie Foxx just threw another wrench into the supoorting actor race. It's still Pesci vs Pitt, with Pacino in the third spot. Hanks should be in fourth, but can still get Captain Phillipsed. 5th spot wide open. DeNiro on life support. Surprising Dolemite shut-out as it seemed to all like SAG bait, but at least Murphy had a Globe nod to keep his hopes alive. But Egerton has to be taken seriously now for the Oscar nod ( BAFTA should throw their weight behind him to have home representation). N'yongo may just get the Oscar nod. Erivo as well. I remember saying Kidman was better than Robbie and could sneak in a random nom somewhere but caved since everyone thought I was crazy for even suggesting it. I think Bombshell would need to be a BP nominee for her to make it to the Oscars, though. Let’s see if it gets a PGA nom.
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Post by mattfincher on Dec 11, 2019 15:38:24 GMT
De Niro had everything working in his favor here and still missed. He’s not happening.
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Post by iheartamyadams on Dec 11, 2019 15:39:22 GMT
That is going to be a really interesting category to track because both Nyong’o and Erivo will be lone noms. Farewell and LW should be stronger than both of their films, but will it matter if they’re not Picture nominees? Ronan will likely get into BAFTA, but I think this is probably the end of the road for Awkwafina. I wanted Awkwafina to get a nomination, but I had a feeling that she and The Farewell were being overestimated even more than I was overestimating MS and 1917 by some people. The Farewell never caught on with the top critics groups at all, and Nyong'o got the push that Awkwafina really needed instead. It did get into ACE, but underperformed at the Globes. Now it completely misses at SAG despite Parasite getting in. Plus again I bring up how unfortunate it is that Asian actors, especially actresses, just haven't fared well with AMPAS. Nyong'o could miss, but she made SAG, and is a former nominee, and Us could conceivably sneak into Best Original Screenplay still. Erivo has the role and will likely hit everywhere. So I think Awkwafina could be out. I think she might not even be seventh if Ronan hits BAFTA because I think LW will show up on nomination morning in some categories although probably not BP anymore. It was such a middle of the road, nothing performance to me. Outrageous that she was ever even in the conversation for a nom. Schuzhen snub’s are tough though. She’s deserving and will probably never get another shot.
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 11, 2019 15:45:50 GMT
I wanted Awkwafina to get a nomination, but I had a feeling that she and The Farewell were being overestimated even more than I was overestimating MS and 1917 by some people. The Farewell never caught on with the top critics groups at all, and Nyong'o got the push that Awkwafina really needed instead. It did get into ACE, but underperformed at the Globes. Now it completely misses at SAG despite Parasite getting in. Plus again I bring up how unfortunate it is that Asian actors, especially actresses, just haven't fared well with AMPAS. Nyong'o could miss, but she made SAG, and is a former nominee, and Us could conceivably sneak into Best Original Screenplay still. Erivo has the role and will likely hit everywhere. So I think Awkwafina could be out. I think she might not even be seventh if Ronan hits BAFTA because I think LW will show up on nomination morning in some categories although probably not BP anymore. It was such a middle of the road, nothing performance to me. Outrageous that she was ever even in the conversation for a nom. Schuzhen snub’s are tough though. She’s deserving and will probably never get another shot. Agree on both accounts. I thought Awkwafina was fine, but she really didn't do anything that another actress couldn't do, and when she finally "acts" during her big moment, she's even worse, imo. Do you think Awkwafina still wins the Globe? I think I'm going to predict that Ana de Armas wins there. Knives Out and The Farewell performed at about the same level with the Globes, and while Awkwafina is a bigger star than de Armas, it's not like Awkwafina is on the level of a Nicole Kidman or Julia Roberts yet.
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 11, 2019 15:47:04 GMT
De Niro had everything working in his favor here and still missed. He’s not happening. I mean, I don't think he gives an oscar calibre performance, and is clearly the weakest of the principle actors. So it's not exactly a tragedy if he misses. But you can't count him completely out with such a competitive BP film (and industry legend status). He could randomly show up at BAFTA and get some momentum again. You are probably right though. It's a fascinating race. I'm half convinced even Adam Sandler could rise from the dead come Oscar morning
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Savager
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Post by Savager on Dec 11, 2019 15:48:08 GMT
Lots to unpack on the film side, but I must say that 'Succession' not getting an ensemble nom for TV is criminal.
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Savager
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Post by Savager on Dec 11, 2019 15:55:36 GMT
Sandler's not getting an Oscar nom without industry support.
The Two Popes will probably rebound with BAFTA, but I don't think any of the 2 actors are getting in with the Academy. Song/Hanks/Pesci/Pacino/Pitt will be the final 5 at the Oscars for Supporting Actor. Lead Actor is much more difficult to predict, but I'm certain that Banderas is happening over Egerton.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 11, 2019 15:56:37 GMT
Sandler's not getting an Oscar nom without industry support. The Two Popes will probably rebound with BAFTA, but I don't think any of the 2 actors are getting in with the Academy. Song/Hanks/Pesci/Pacino/Pitt will be the final 5 at the Oscars for Supporting Actor. Lead Actor is much more difficult to predict, but I'm certain that Banderas is happening over Egerton. Thoughts on Johansson beating Zellweger for the Oscar?
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Savager
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Post by Savager on Dec 11, 2019 16:00:37 GMT
Sandler's not getting an Oscar nom without industry support. The Two Popes will probably rebound with BAFTA, but I don't think any of the 2 actors are getting in with the Academy. Song/Hanks/Pesci/Pacino/Pitt will be the final 5 at the Oscars for Supporting Actor. Lead Actor is much more difficult to predict, but I'm certain that Banderas is happening over Egerton. Thoughts on Johansson beating Zellweger for the Oscar? It can definitely happen. Reminds me a bit of the 2016 race with Portman vs. Stone. MS doesn't seem as strong as La La Land though.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2019 16:01:44 GMT
Called the marriage story ensemble snub (happy but not really)
Parasite is a cool nod
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Post by stephen on Dec 11, 2019 16:03:35 GMT
I fucking knew Parasite had the goods to get into SAG. I was just worried about eligibility.
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Post by JangoB on Dec 11, 2019 16:03:45 GMT
My theory was Irishman and Hollywood couldn’t win without getting their lead actor in. DiCaprio is looking a lot more likely than De Niro now, so Hollywood has the upper hand. But watch out for fucking Parasite. Song is 100% gonna happen at the Oscars over Hopkins or Hanks. Foxx is obviously a SAG only thing. Why such strong confidence in Song happening, especially over Hanks of all people?
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 11, 2019 16:04:08 GMT
Oh, and Al Pacino got 3 SAG nominations today. 1 for Supporting Actor, and 2 for Ensemble. So did Scarlett Johansson and Margot Robbie.
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Post by iheartamyadams on Dec 11, 2019 16:04:24 GMT
It was such a middle of the road, nothing performance to me. Outrageous that she was ever even in the conversation for a nom. Schuzhen snub’s are tough though. She’s deserving and will probably never get another shot. Agree on both accounts. I thought Awkwafina was fine, but she really didn't do anything that another actress couldn't do, and when she finally "acts" during her big moment, she's even worse, imo. Do you think Awkwafina still wins the Globe? I think I'm going to predict that Ana de Armas wins there. Knives Out and The Farewell performed at about the same level with the Globes, and while Awkwafina is a bigger star than de Armas, it's not like Awkwafina is on the level of a Nicole Kidman or Julia Roberts yet. She’s not really a star yet and that’s not a Globe friendly performance, but she’s the only nominee that has any sort of Oscar buzz, so I do think she will still probably win.
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Post by JangoB on Dec 11, 2019 16:04:50 GMT
No better stuntwork this year!
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2019 16:07:31 GMT
Oh, and Al Pacino got 3 SAG nominations today. 1 for Supporting Actor, and 2 for Ensemble. To think that ScarJo and Pacino are in the same boat here lol
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Dec 11, 2019 16:12:43 GMT
No better stuntwork this year! I guess we were all wrong and that's actually a great scene. After all, which of us is more qualified than working actors and stuntmen to judge stunt work?
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 11, 2019 16:13:09 GMT
Thoughts on Johansson beating Zellweger for the Oscar? It can definitely happen. Reminds me a bit of the 2016 race with Portman vs. Stone. MS doesn't seem as strong as La La Land though. Morton sinks with MS. One thing in Johansson's favor though to make up for the fact that MS is no La La Land is that she could be double nominated. She missed the Globe, but Bening is out and maybe Bates too. Shuzhen and Pugh missed both the Globes and SAG. So I think she's looking pretty good for the fourth or fifth spot behind the three locked in people (Dern, Lopez, Robbie). It's probably Zellweger because Judy is very baity and a very sympathetic character. Plus Zellweger gets all the focus in her film, but a small part of me hopes that Johansson could surprise because Zellweger just seems like the oddest two time acting winner. Winning leading first and then supporting wouldn't seem that odd, imo, even with not doing much of note for the last 10-15 years, but winning a second in leading and on top of that maybe being your film's only nomination just seems mind boggling as far as trends go. Of course, stats are broken every year, so this just might be one of those years.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Dec 11, 2019 16:13:16 GMT
My theory was Irishman and Hollywood couldn’t win without getting their lead actor in. DiCaprio is looking a lot more likely than De Niro now, so Hollywood has the upper hand. But watch out for fucking Parasite. Song is 100% gonna happen at the Oscars over Hopkins or Hanks. Foxx is obviously a SAG only thing. Why such strong confidence in Song happening, especially over Hanks of all people? Maybe not over Hanks (though it's possible) but certainly Hopkins and Foxx imo.
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Post by JangoB on Dec 11, 2019 16:17:01 GMT
Why such strong confidence in Song happening, especially over Hanks of all people? Maybe not even over Hanks (though it's possible) but certainly Hopkins and Foxx imo. I think a Song nomination is possible, don't get me wrong, but I just don't know how anyone can be this confident about this stuff at the moment. It's a weird season so a lot of things can happen. I certainly think that The Two Popes will be a little bit bigger with the Academy than with the guilds so I'm not counting Hopkins out as of yet. Foxx definitely sounds like a SAG-only thing though.
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Post by DeepArcher on Dec 11, 2019 16:18:15 GMT
BuT PaRaSiTE WON't GeT NomInATEd FoR BEsT PictURe DeepArcher This is genuinely unbelievable. My first thought was that dazed just put in the OP to fuck with people ... I'm so confused! And considering SAG is easily the most populist of the precursors generally (i.e., the least likely to give two shits about Parasite), this practically confirms it as a BP nominee. And it got in over Knives Out and fucking Marriage Story????!!! I'm so, so confused. Also ... this puts Bombshell in a comfortable position and nearly solidifies Egerton as a lock (most people will still deny it, we'll see when he wins the Globe and gets in at BAFTA too), both of which I've been predicting that most people haven't, and it also puts Irishman ahead of Marriage Story (good for personal sanity) ... so I'll take that trade-off.
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Post by DeepArcher on Dec 11, 2019 16:19:55 GMT
Imagine not nomination Succession for any acting awards. What fucking fools
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