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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 6, 2020 4:21:08 GMT
remember back when Netflix had two legitimate BP frontrunners? Those were the days... If even Marty can't do it, who the hell can?
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Post by quetee on Jan 6, 2020 4:22:29 GMT
I am glad that my picking 1917 in the What Will Win BP poll looks (a bit) less crazy now. I picked it for two months and only switched to Once last month. So there were a few of us who don't look too crazy now.
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Post by Sharbs on Jan 6, 2020 4:23:14 GMT
3 times in the last decade the Oscar BP winner wasn't either Globe winner Specifically three of the last five BP winners. As per usual, people are drastically overreacting to the Globes' results. Absolutely nothing is set in stone in terms of the BP race, and I don't at all see 1917 being a real threat to win BP, even if it does win BAFTA which I'm sure it will (which also hasn't aligned with the Oscar BP for five straight years). thanks, mate. I overlooked 2014 it's actually been 4 this decade that haven't aligned
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Post by DeepArcher on Jan 6, 2020 4:23:21 GMT
Also, I'm kinda getting Glenn Close vibes from Zellweger. I have no doubt she'll enter Oscar night as the frontrunner, but I think she'll ultimately lose out to someone who was in a film that people actually saw.
Other three acting categories are a done deal, though.
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Post by quetee on Jan 6, 2020 4:23:34 GMT
remember back when Netflix had two legitimate BP frontrunners? Those were the days... If even Marty can't do it, who the hell can? What have I been saying... lmao!!!!
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 6, 2020 4:24:13 GMT
I guess Spielberg ways really did work on his anti Netflix campaign. Well, in its early stages DreamWorks peaked higher than Netflix with the Academy.
Going back to basics with the same director would make a lot of sense
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 6, 2020 4:24:34 GMT
The Irishman is (unfortunately) done in terms of being a legit BP winner, I think. It's a shame, but I could even see Little Women peaking at the right time and beating it in Adapted Screenplay. All acting races are over, I'm confident in that. Phoenix, Zellwegger, Dern and Pitt will sweep. Yes, I think Netflix only wins Best Supporting Actress, and The Irishman and Marriage Story lose everything else. I thought maybe the Globes could throw some surprises into acting, but no it looks like another 2017 where we get the same 4 winners everywhere. Nope, Gerwig is NOT beating Zaillian. And Thelma could always win in editing. Also, Zellweger is NOT locked. She could still potentiALLY lose SAG and/or BAFTA.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 6, 2020 4:25:33 GMT
remember back when Netflix had two legitimate BP frontrunners? Those were the days... If even Marty can't do it, who the hell can? It will happen one day, and I get the overspending on campaigning, but I think that maybe they should cool it a little next year because by the time the Oscars finally arrive, there’s already a lot of resentment at how much Netflix has spent going by this year and last year.
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Post by quetee on Jan 6, 2020 4:26:36 GMT
remember back when Netflix had two legitimate BP frontrunners? Those were the days... If even Marty can't do it, who the hell can? People don't like how they are playing the game. They released their viewer numbers and changed the methodology to look like The Irishman was one of the most watched movies.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 6, 2020 4:29:24 GMT
Don't think the Actress race is done yet, but yeah, the other 3 races seem fairly clear now. I think The Irishman is maybe 4th in the Best Picture race now. I can't get a read on how strong Parasite will be based on tonight, but it's still top 3.
Today was the best for: 1. 1917 2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Every other Best Picture contender took a pretty big hit.
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 6, 2020 4:29:28 GMT
Also, I'm kinda getting Glenn Close vibes from Zellweger. I have no doubt she'll enter Oscar night as the frontrunner, but I think she'll ultimately lose out to someone who was in a film that people actually saw. Other three acting categories are a done deal, though. I agree 100%!! Only thing that would make me doubt myself is if she wins SAG AND BAFTA. But if she loses either one, I think whoever beat her for either of them is winning Oscar too. I still think it'll end up being ScarJo.
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 6, 2020 4:31:43 GMT
Don't think the Actress race is done yet, but yeah, the other 3 races seem fairly clear now. I think The Irishman is maybe 4th in the Best Picture race now. I can't get a read on how strong Parasite will be based on tonight, but it's still top 3. Thoughts on Joker having crazy cheers at the show? I think the movie is at 5th
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 6, 2020 4:33:26 GMT
Thoughts on Joker having crazy cheers at the show? I think the movie is at 5th I didn't really notice any additional cheers, but I wasn't paying attention either. Either way, cheers haven't really been a good indicator of anything in the past. Stallone, for instance, got insane cheers and still lost.
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 6, 2020 4:33:26 GMT
Don't think the Actress race is done yet, but yeah, the other 3 races seem fairly clear now. I think The Irishman is maybe 4th in the Best Picture race now. I can't get a read on how strong Parasite will be based on tonight, but it's still top 3. Nope, IRISHMAN is still #3, but it's (devastatingly) a distant 3rd. I think Parasite/OUATIH are firmly in front. 1917 is #4 AT BEST, slightly ahead of "Marriage Story".
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 6, 2020 4:34:22 GMT
Nope, IRISHMAN is still #3, but it's (devastatingly) a distant 3rd. I think Parasite/OUATIH are firmly in front. 1917 is #4 AT BEST, slightly ahead of "Marriage Story". Why do you think giving your opinion is going to change anybody's minds? It'd be a lot more useful if you actually gave an argument instead.
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Post by wallsofjericho on Jan 6, 2020 4:36:42 GMT
Really interested to see how the best actor line up turns out.
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 6, 2020 4:37:20 GMT
remember back when Netflix had two legitimate BP frontrunners? Those were the days... If even Marty can't do it, who the hell can? People don't like how they are playing the game. They released their viewer numbers and changed the methodology to look like The Irishman was one of the most watched movies. Nobody gives a shit about that. 😆 THE IRISHMAN is one of the 10 greatest films of this century, and the HFPA or any other lemmings who snub it of the sweep it deserves for an inferior film (i.e. ANY film) should be deeply ashamed for the rest of their lives. A pox on their colon!! #shame
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 6, 2020 4:39:11 GMT
Nope, IRISHMAN is still #3, but it's (devastatingly) a distant 3rd. I think Parasite/OUATIH are firmly in front. 1917 is #4 AT BEST, slightly ahead of "Marriage Story". Why do you think giving your opinion is going to change anybody's minds? It'd be a lot more useful if you actually gave an argument instead. Wtf cares about changing anyone's minds? Why do you assume that even was or should be my goal? I was DISAGREEING with your take. Simple as that.
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Jan 6, 2020 4:43:42 GMT
Looks like it's between 1917 and Hollywood for best picture. lack of acting recognition making 1917 weak, I think it's between OUATIH and Marriage Story That is one thing in Hollywood favors, which is why it'll probably win best picture. Honestly I think Marriage Story is done, unless it gets a boost from SAG or something.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 6, 2020 4:45:02 GMT
Wtf cares about changing anyone's minds? Why do you assume that even was or should be my goal? I was DISAGREEING with your take. Simple as that. Cool, and you're free to continue disagreeing with my takes, but I'll be considerate enough to let you know that I couldn't care less about takes without an argument to back them up.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 6, 2020 4:47:54 GMT
Did people notice that J-Lo barely got applause when the nominees were read. It's over for her if she can't even win the Globe. Laura Dern has this.
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 6, 2020 4:49:39 GMT
Did people notice that J-Lo barely got applause when the nominees were read. It's over for her if she can't even win the Globe. Laura Dern has this. She will be snubbed. AMPAS won't allow the lower class to be nominated
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 6, 2020 4:51:54 GMT
The Supporting category is weak. Lopez is in.
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Lubezki
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Post by Lubezki on Jan 6, 2020 4:51:59 GMT
Did people notice that J-Lo barely got applause when the nominees were read. It's over for her if she can't even win the Globe. Laura Dern has this. J-Lo was always on the cusp; she needed to win the GG tonight to prolong the race somewhat. And even if she did, I still think Dern would win the Oscar anyway. It’s obviously a foregone conclusion now.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 6, 2020 4:53:58 GMT
Did people notice that J-Lo barely got applause when the nominees were read. It's over for her if she can't even win the Globe. Laura Dern has this. I never go by applause because I don’t think there’s any proof that it means anything. Like Good God brought up Stallone, a few years ago, and he got a standing ovation here but lost, or even last year Close got the biggest response but still lost. I do agree that Dern definitely has this now. Most pundits weren’t even picking Dern at the Globes because they generally go with the big star, and Dern has already won 4 times, but if she can win here that means she’s sweeping.
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