SAG AWARDS : who's winning Best Supporting Actress ?

Hmmm... dunno. Weisz is Amy Adams' kryptonite.

Adams makes the most sense given Vice's awards success and her own personal narrative of being a perennial awards fixture that's yet to land a major win, but even without King in the lineup I'm not 100% confident that she has it in the bag. I may be misinterpreting things, but hers just doesn't seem like the type of performance that attracts undeniable passion, judging by how many critics groups have snubbed her despite giving Vice other nominations, as well as the fact that so many reviews/reactions barely even mention her at all. Wilcinema is right that Adams's buzz mostly boils down to "well, if King is out then I guess she makes sense, right?". Much like Vice itself, her performance has its fair share of detractors writing it off as okay at best and downright bad at worst, and I can see many voters lacking enthusiasm and choosing to pass on her this season. I voted for her for the purposes of this poll and I'll be predicting her until given reason to believe that someone else is stronger, but she's far from locked, and even if she wins here, I do think Weisz takes the BAFTA in King's absence, making the category a complete question mark going into the Oscars. If Adams doesn't pull this one off, she's as good as out.

The real question is, if not her then whom? Weisz seems to be the strongest alternative, but does The Favourite have that kind of support? Robbie hit BAFTA too, but Mary Queen of Scots is too weak overall. A Blunt upset would be a shocker, but she did land double nominations, A Quiet Place was a massive hit, and she and Krasinski are campaigning hard. I can totally see SAG-AFTRA throwing that type of curveball at us.

It will probably end up being Adams just because that seems to be the most boring result and usually that's what ends happening, imo, but I agree on those reasons now on why I don't think it will be her. The only thing that she has is her overdue narrative, but I don't really think that's been much of a factor at least so far. It's been overshadowed by Glenn Close's overdue narrative, and Close has the advantage of at least being singled out more by critics and more critics' awards. Not to mention the longevity that Close has had in the industry that's helping her overdue narrative. In contrast, Adams received her nominations pretty quickly, and unlike younger actors like Winslet and DiCaprio, there's no "it's their time" by social media part of which I think was fueled by Winslet and DiCaprio being in such a phenomenon as Titanic. Also interesting to note, when Winslet finally won, there was buzz about Winslet and DiCaprio winning together, and then when DiCaprio finally won, there was some buzz although it started later on about them both winning on the same night again. 



As I noted after I saw If Beale Street Could Talk out of all the supporting actress contenders that I've seen so far, thanks AMC A-List, (Adams, Debicki, Foy, Kidman, King, Robbie, Stone, Weisz), if I were ranking performances Adams would come in last. She was okay, but it just pales in comparison for me to the other contenders' performances. She of course has her big moment near the beginning of the film, but I actually found that to be a weak scene from her; although, obviously others will disagree. Then, she has other moments in the film where I think she does better, but they're very brief, and/or pale in comparison to Bale, imo, or get swallowed up by the gimmicks that the film uses. 

I agree though if not Adams who. I ended up voting for Blunt because of the double nominations, and just my hope that this category continues to stay a mess so that SAG and BAFTA go to different people, which means she'll probably lose now that she has my endorsement, lol. I really could see anyone winning though even Robbie now.

Adams seems most likely but again for the reasons that have been pointed out there's just not much passion.  Her overdue narrative has been overshadowed by Close's. Finally, I can't see Vice winning two SAG awards, so with Bale surging, I think that might hurt Adams. 

Then, there's The Favourite actresses. This category would have been so much simpler and of course much more boring if they had just pushed Stone leading, and Colman and Weisz supporting as originally thought. Weisz would finally get another nomination while Colman would easily sweep everything. Since they haven't, I don't know who to pick between Weisz and Stone here. At BAFTA, Weisz makes a lot of sense, but here, Stone is very popular with SAG (one individual award, two ensemble awards), and she was double nominated just as Adams was. Unfortunately neither actress has broke away from the other. Anecdotally of the three performances, I see Weisz getting a lot of MVP notices from different forums, but what Stone does is pretty impressive as well. It's so different than what she's done before, and at least to me I thought she nailed the accent. 

Blunt has the banner year even if Mary Poppins Returns underperformed at the box office and with the guilds. She's also well liked in the industry and has been campaigning nonstop. Since voters know that she has no chance to win Best Actress now, it's possible that they want to see her win something and award her supporting actress instead. On the other hand, A Quiet Place might have genre bias against it when it actually comes down to voting for the winners. 

Finally, there's Robbie. I ruled her out right after the nominations came out, but then she ended up making it in at BAFTA so there is support there. She's got the deglam factor, and Queen Elizabeth is such a baity role too. However, the film is so weak overall that I'm not sure that Robbie could actually pull off such a big win. It should certainly help her next time with something like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood where it seems she has the role, and a film that should be much stronger than Mary, Queen of Scots, at least on paper. It might be another The Hateful Eight situation or worse. 

Margot. Robbie.

Amy Adams for a really dull performance

I'm going with the NGNG pick for Emily Blunt. Considering the double-nomination it's clear that SAG likes her (and I mean, c'mon, everybody loves Emily Blunt), and she's certainly not gonna win in that lead category. Plus, as has been pointed-out, A Quiet Place was a massive hit, and both she and Krasinski have been everywhere campaigning for it. To me, Blunt makes the most sense at the moment, despite the fact that she's missed every other precursor (though I do think she's ultimately gonna sneak into the Oscar line-up). I really can't see Adams getting much notice for Vice, and if she does it'll be because her overdue narrative is *really* that powerful. I don't even think Adams' fans want to see her win for this role; she's barely gotten any individual notices for it, and though this hasn't been talked about much, to me it felt like she was barely in the movie at all? At least compared to how much I expected from her. She really only has that one scene early-on that felt like an "Oscar clip" moment, otherwise it's not exactly the bait-y role that it was anticipated to be. It's not a performance that's gonna inspire any passion, especially with Bale taking the spotlight, and with the SAG Ensemble snub it's clear that SAG didn't like Vice *all* that much (and it's a wonder that other Guilds did considering how divisive the film is in general). 

Still, it's anyone's game at the moment. I wouldn't be too shocked to see any of these five win, it just feels like Blunt has the least working against her. Weisz would probably be the next most likely, considering her past win is not nearly as recent as Stone's, and she seems to be getting far more individual notices for her work. Again with The Favourite though, the Ensemble snub would seem to suggest that SAG didn't love it, and you'd have to imagine the fans it does have will be giving a lot of support to Stone at Weisz's expense. So while Rachel has a shot, again, it seems like a long one. And then there's Robbie, who has emerged as a surprise contender late in the game, but, again, Mary Queen of Scots does not seem to be a particularly well-liked film and while I haven't exactly heard anything negative about Robbie's performance, it's telling that not that much has been said about it in general. However, you could argue that Blunt and Robbie perhaps have the two best chances here, considering there's clearly enough passion for them among SAG members to randomly nominate them though they didn't get any love from critics circles or other precursors beforehand. 

Regardless, this category is certainly a clusterfuck, and I ultimately think King emerges as the Oscar-winner due to the lack of a consensus pick against her. I'm sure that SAG and BAFTA will be split between two different women -- should be obvious given that my SAG prediction wasn't even nominated by BAFTA -- and ultimately it'll be King's performance that inspires the most passion and is a clear consensus pick to win. 

Is this the big scene you guys are talking about? Because this clip corresponds to pages 7-8 in the script, and Lynne Cheney's supposed to be 21 here.

If that's Adams's biggest scene, then... 

Tbh this scene isn't that bad after watching it a few times. I used to find it horrible.

Sorry I did make a post, but I was having trouble with the spoiler button because I didn't want to inadvertently reveal anything. Then I just deleted it and am hoping this works.



(I was trying to just spoil small parts of it instead of the whole thing, but it throws off the whole formatting.)

She didn't win two years ago, she's the BAFTA frontrunner, she's not perceived as a category fraud.

In a category of only previous winners though.


I do wish Weisz or Stone would be the frontrunners in this category this year, highly deserved. I'm hoping Weisz will surprise.