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Post by HELENA MARIA on Jan 14, 2019 17:46:56 GMT
Since they told Regina King to fuck off , who do you think is winning now ?
I'd love Weisz to win but I think Adams has it in the bag : VICE being more popular than THE FAVOURITE , Adams being overdue of a SAG win , etc.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 14, 2019 17:53:05 GMT
Amy Adams is winning that is left for her to win.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Jan 14, 2019 17:58:14 GMT
Hmmm... dunno. Weisz is Amy Adams' kryptonite.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 14, 2019 18:16:00 GMT
I know I'm betting on the wrong horse but I'm predicting Rachel Weisz at the moment. Christian Bale is the front and center of Vice and even now that Regina King is not contending for the next win, I hear nothing about Amy Adams. Her performance isn't being singled out, the film is messy and divisive, and most everyone feels she would win because the former frontrunner was, for some reason, not nominated.
Rachel Weisz is a previous winner, and she's in a faltering film overall, but she's in a very powerful ensemble that's been garnering notices everywhere.
It's a total clusterfuck. I think there's also a very slim outside chance that Emily Blunt takes this, which would be amazing for prediction purposes.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 14, 2019 18:27:55 GMT
Adams makes the most sense given Vice's awards success and her own personal narrative of being a perennial awards fixture that's yet to land a major win, but even without King in the lineup I'm not 100% confident that she has it in the bag. I may be misinterpreting things, but hers just doesn't seem like the type of performance that attracts undeniable passion, judging by how many critics groups have snubbed her despite giving Vice other nominations, as well as the fact that so many reviews/reactions barely even mention her at all. Wilcinema is right that Adams's buzz mostly boils down to "well, if King is out then I guess she makes sense, right?". Much like Vice itself, her performance has its fair share of detractors writing it off as okay at best and downright bad at worst, and I can see many voters lacking enthusiasm and choosing to pass on her this season. I voted for her for the purposes of this poll and I'll be predicting her until given reason to believe that someone else is stronger, but she's far from locked, and even if she wins here, I do think Weisz takes the BAFTA in King's absence, making the category a complete question mark going into the Oscars. If Adams doesn't pull this one off, she's as good as out.
The real question is, if not her then whom? Weisz seems to be the strongest alternative, but does The Favourite have that kind of support? Robbie hit BAFTA too, but Mary Queen of Scots is too weak overall. A Blunt upset would be a shocker, but she did land double nominations, A Quiet Place was a massive hit, and she and Krasinski are campaigning hard. I can totally see SAG-AFTRA throwing that type of curveball at us.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 14, 2019 19:51:52 GMT
I know the question might seem outrageous... but does anyone really care to see Adams win? And I'm not talking about "I'd love to see her win" type of sentiment, but rather the "It's a scandal that she hasn't won yet" kind of narrative that usually drives overdue thespians. Glenn Close seems to have that, Julianne Moore had that, Gary Oldman had that. She will be at her 6th nomination this year in just 13 years of top level cinema, but she always seems to be the second choice to someone else. She hasn't really left a mark in her generation as a super influential actress.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 14, 2019 19:52:08 GMT
I know I'm betting on the wrong horse but I'm predicting Rachel Weisz at the moment. Christian Bale is the front and center of Vice and even now that Regina King is not contending for the next win, I hear nothing about Amy Adams. Her performance isn't being singled out, the film is messy and divisive, and most everyone feels she would win because the former frontrunner was, for some reason, not nominated. Rachel Weisz is a previous winner, and she's in a faltering film overall, but she's in a very powerful ensemble that's been garnering notices everywhere. It's a total clusterfuck. I think there's also a very slim outside chance that Emily Blunt takes this, which would be amazing for prediction purposes. It will probably end up being Adams just because that seems to be the most boring result and usually that's what ends happening, imo, but I agree on those reasons now on why I don't think it will be her. The only thing that she has is her overdue narrative, but I don't really think that's been much of a factor at least so far. It's been overshadowed by Glenn Close's overdue narrative, and Close has the advantage of at least being singled out more by critics and more critics' awards. Not to mention the longevity that Close has had in the industry that's helping her overdue narrative. In contrast, Adams received her nominations pretty quickly, and unlike younger actors like Winslet and DiCaprio, there's no "it's their time" by social media part of which I think was fueled by Winslet and DiCaprio being in such a phenomenon as Titanic. Also interesting to note, when Winslet finally won, there was buzz about Winslet and DiCaprio winning together, and then when DiCaprio finally won, there was some buzz although it started later on about them both winning on the same night again. Adams makes the most sense given Vice's awards success and her own personal narrative of being a perennial awards fixture that's yet to land a major win, but even without King in the lineup I'm not 100% confident that she has it in the bag. I may be misinterpreting things, but hers just doesn't seem like the type of performance that attracts undeniable passion, judging by how many critics groups have snubbed her despite giving Vice other nominations, as well as the fact that so many reviews/reactions barely even mention her at all. Wilcinema is right that Adams's buzz mostly boils down to "well, if King is out then I guess she makes sense, right?". Much like Vice itself, her performance has its fair share of detractors writing it off as okay at best and downright bad at worst, and I can see many voters lacking enthusiasm and choosing to pass on her this season. I voted for her for the purposes of this poll and I'll be predicting her until given reason to believe that someone else is stronger, but she's far from locked, and even if she wins here, I do think Weisz takes the BAFTA in King's absence, making the category a complete question mark going into the Oscars. If Adams doesn't pull this one off, she's as good as out. The real question is, if not her then whom? Weisz seems to be the strongest alternative, but does The Favourite have that kind of support? Robbie hit BAFTA too, but Mary Queen of Scots is too weak overall. A Blunt upset would be a shocker, but she did land double nominations, A Quiet Place was a massive hit, and she and Krasinski are campaigning hard. I can totally see SAG-AFTRA throwing that type of curveball at us. As I noted after I saw If Beale Street Could Talk out of all the supporting actress contenders that I've seen so far, thanks AMC A-List, (Adams, Debicki, Foy, Kidman, King, Robbie, Stone, Weisz), if I were ranking performances Adams would come in last. She was okay, but it just pales in comparison for me to the other contenders' performances. She of course has her big moment near the beginning of the film, but I actually found that to be a weak scene from her; although, obviously others will disagree. Then, she has other moments in the film where I think she does better, but they're very brief, and/or pale in comparison to Bale, imo, or get swallowed up by the gimmicks that the film uses. I agree though if not Adams who. I ended up voting for Blunt because of the double nominations, and just my hope that this category continues to stay a mess so that SAG and BAFTA go to different people, which means she'll probably lose now that she has my endorsement, lol. I really could see anyone winning though even Robbie now. Adams seems most likely but again for the reasons that have been pointed out there's just not much passion. Her overdue narrative has been overshadowed by Close's. Finally, I can't see Vice winning two SAG awards, so with Bale surging, I think that might hurt Adams. Then, there's The Favourite actresses. This category would have been so much simpler and of course much more boring if they had just pushed Stone leading, and Colman and Weisz supporting as originally thought. Weisz would finally get another nomination while Colman would easily sweep everything. Since they haven't, I don't know who to pick between Weisz and Stone here. At BAFTA, Weisz makes a lot of sense, but here, Stone is very popular with SAG (one individual award, two ensemble awards), and she was double nominated just as Adams was. Unfortunately neither actress has broke away from the other. Anecdotally of the three performances, I see Weisz getting a lot of MVP notices from different forums, but what Stone does is pretty impressive as well. It's so different than what she's done before, and at least to me I thought she nailed the accent. Blunt has the banner year even if Mary Poppins Returns underperformed at the box office and with the guilds. She's also well liked in the industry and has been campaigning nonstop. Since voters know that she has no chance to win Best Actress now, it's possible that they want to see her win something and award her supporting actress instead. On the other hand, A Quiet Place might have genre bias against it when it actually comes down to voting for the winners. Finally, there's Robbie. I ruled her out right after the nominations came out, but then she ended up making it in at BAFTA so there is support there. She's got the deglam factor, and Queen Elizabeth is such a baity role too. However, the film is so weak overall that I'm not sure that Robbie could actually pull off such a big win. It should certainly help her next time with something like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood where it seems she has the role, and a film that should be much stronger than Mary, Queen of Scots, at least on paper. It might be another The Hateful Eight situation or worse.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 14, 2019 20:07:47 GMT
I know the question might seem outrageous... but does anyone really care to see Adams win? And I'm not talking about "I'd love to see her win" type of sentiment, but rather the "It's a scandal that she hasn't won yet" kind of narrative that usually drives overdue thespians. Glenn Close seems to have that, Julianne Moore had that, Gary Oldman had that. She will be at her 6th nomination this year in just 13 years of top level cinema, but she always seems to be the second choice to someone else. She hasn't really left a mark in her generation as a super influential actress. I guess Enchanted would be her best known film, but I can't answer if it's an iconic role for Adams. I loved her in it, and I still watch it from time to time. I think people still remember it, but I don't think any of the songs reached iconic status like say "Let It Go" has. I also don't think that Giselle reached iconic status as a Disney princess. I think that could be due to the fact that Disney didn't want to use Adams's image because they would have to pay her too much, and so Giselle hasn't been promoted as much as the other princesses. Other than that role though, you're right I don't think that she's left a mark like the other overdue thespians have with the general public, and that can help drive that overdue narrative as I mentioned in my previous post about Winslet and DiCaprio, because then pundits know that stories about _____ being overdue and possibly winning this year can get fans to click on their articles. Close has Fatal Attraction and Dangerous Liaisons, and even with 101 Dalmatians, she got to portray an iconic villain for the younger generation. Oldman has Bram Stoker's Dracula plus he was a memorable villain in The Fifth Element and Air Force One, and then later on he was a memorable part of big movies like Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban and The Dark Knight. Moore was in Boogie Nights and Magnolia, and right before her Oscar win, she swept all the television awards for portraying Sarah Palin. 2014 was also not a very competitive year for Best Actress. Of course, I mentioned Winslet and DiCaprio have Titanic.
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Post by theycallmemrfish on Jan 14, 2019 20:19:21 GMT
Margot. Robbie.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 14, 2019 20:23:28 GMT
I guess Enchanted would be her best known film, but I can't answer if it's an iconic role for Adams. I loved her in it, and I still watch it from time to time. I think people still remember it, but I don't think any of the songs reached iconic status like say "Let It Go" has. I also don't think that Giselle reached iconic status as a Disney princess. I think that could be due to the fact that Disney didn't want to use Adams's image because they would have to pay her too much, and so Giselle hasn't been promoted as much as the other princesses. Other than that role though, you're right I don't think that she's left a mark like the other overdue thespians have with the general public, and that can help drive that overdue narrative as I mentioned in my previous post about Winslet and DiCaprio, because then pundits know that stories about _____ being overdue and possibly winning this year can get fans to click on their articles. Close has Fatal Attraction and Dangerous Liaisons, and even with 101 Dalmatians, she got to portray an iconic villain for the younger generation. Oldman has Bram Stoker's Dracula plus he was a memorable villain in The Fifth Element and Air Force One, and then later on he was a memorable part of big movies like Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban and The Dark Knight. Moore was in Boogie Nights and Magnolia, and right before her Oscar win, she swept all the television awards for portraying Sarah Palin. 2014 was also not a very competitive year for Best Actress. Of course, I mentioned Winslet and DiCaprio have Titanic. Amy Adams has Arrival, which is like reddit's favourite movie.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 14, 2019 20:29:23 GMT
Amy Adams for a really dull performance
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 14, 2019 20:34:56 GMT
I guess Enchanted would be her best known film, but I can't answer if it's an iconic role for Adams. I loved her in it, and I still watch it from time to time. I think people still remember it, but I don't think any of the songs reached iconic status like say "Let It Go" has. I also don't think that Giselle reached iconic status as a Disney princess. I think that could be due to the fact that Disney didn't want to use Adams's image because they would have to pay her too much, and so Giselle hasn't been promoted as much as the other princesses. Other than that role though, you're right I don't think that she's left a mark like the other overdue thespians have with the general public, and that can help drive that overdue narrative as I mentioned in my previous post about Winslet and DiCaprio, because then pundits know that stories about _____ being overdue and possibly winning this year can get fans to click on their articles. Close has Fatal Attraction and Dangerous Liaisons, and even with 101 Dalmatians, she got to portray an iconic villain for the younger generation. Oldman has Bram Stoker's Dracula plus he was a memorable villain in The Fifth Element and Air Force One, and then later on he was a memorable part of big movies like Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban and The Dark Knight. Moore was in Boogie Nights and Magnolia, and right before her Oscar win, she swept all the television awards for portraying Sarah Palin. 2014 was also not a very competitive year for Best Actress. Of course, I mentioned Winslet and DiCaprio have Titanic. Amy Adams has Arrival, which is like reddit's favourite movie. I can't believe I forgot about Arrival. I guess it would also help if she has a few snubs like that and/or outrages over her losing the Oscar to someone else. For instance, I think Cate Blanchett was fortunate that a short time later, Gwyneth Paltrow's win for Shakespeare in Love was thought of as a bad win, and that public opinion thought that Blanchett was robbed. I think Oldman had a lot of that "OMG! I can't believe he's never been nominated before" until he finally was for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. And of course DiCaprio had that a lot in his career. "I can't believe they snubbed him for Titanic." "I can't believe he wasn't nominated for The Departed." "I can't believe he wasn't nominated for Django Unchained." Arrival has been Adams only snub, and there's not really been an outcry from the general public that she should have won for one of her performances over someone else.
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Post by DeepArcher on Jan 14, 2019 21:13:54 GMT
I'm going with the NGNG pick for Emily Blunt. Considering the double-nomination it's clear that SAG likes her (and I mean, c'mon, everybody loves Emily Blunt), and she's certainly not gonna win in that lead category. Plus, as has been pointed-out, A Quiet Place was a massive hit, and both she and Krasinski have been everywhere campaigning for it. To me, Blunt makes the most sense at the moment, despite the fact that she's missed every other precursor (though I do think she's ultimately gonna sneak into the Oscar line-up). I really can't see Adams getting much notice for Vice, and if she does it'll be because her overdue narrative is *really* that powerful. I don't even think Adams' fans want to see her win for this role; she's barely gotten any individual notices for it, and though this hasn't been talked about much, to me it felt like she was barely in the movie at all? At least compared to how much I expected from her. She really only has that one scene early-on that felt like an "Oscar clip" moment, otherwise it's not exactly the bait-y role that it was anticipated to be. It's not a performance that's gonna inspire any passion, especially with Bale taking the spotlight, and with the SAG Ensemble snub it's clear that SAG didn't like Vice *all* that much (and it's a wonder that other Guilds did considering how divisive the film is in general).
Still, it's anyone's game at the moment. I wouldn't be too shocked to see any of these five win, it just feels like Blunt has the least working against her. Weisz would probably be the next most likely, considering her past win is not nearly as recent as Stone's, and she seems to be getting far more individual notices for her work. Again with The Favourite though, the Ensemble snub would seem to suggest that SAG didn't love it, and you'd have to imagine the fans it does have will be giving a lot of support to Stone at Weisz's expense. So while Rachel has a shot, again, it seems like a long one. And then there's Robbie, who has emerged as a surprise contender late in the game, but, again, Mary Queen of Scots does not seem to be a particularly well-liked film and while I haven't exactly heard anything negative about Robbie's performance, it's telling that not that much has been said about it in general. However, you could argue that Blunt and Robbie perhaps have the two best chances here, considering there's clearly enough passion for them among SAG members to randomly nominate them though they didn't get any love from critics circles or other precursors beforehand.
Regardless, this category is certainly a clusterfuck, and I ultimately think King emerges as the Oscar-winner due to the lack of a consensus pick against her. I'm sure that SAG and BAFTA will be split between two different women -- should be obvious given that my SAG prediction wasn't even nominated by BAFTA -- and ultimately it'll be King's performance that inspires the most passion and is a clear consensus pick to win.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jan 14, 2019 21:39:53 GMT
Everyone's musings is really interesting. I hope I'm wrong but unfortunately, I think it will be Amy Adams, for her inconsistent turn in Vice. Other users are right that her performance seems to have very little passion on its own (and personally think it's an absolutely unworthy performance and it would be a joke to let her win for this rather than some of her previous work) and the movie itself is so divisive it's hard to see it win for both Bale and Adams, but yes, she is the most boring choice and thus likeliest to win.
Would love for either of The Favourite ladies to win, either Weisz to pave way for a possible upset at the Oscars or Stone, because I think she's the best of the line-up and gives one of the best performances of the year. Sadly, I don't see Stone happening.
I however also think Emily Blunt seems to have a lot more passion behind her than Adams this year, even if it's split between two movies -- she's obviously not happening in lead (for a movie that has disappointed slightly) and genre bias might work against A Quiet Place (I don't think she's worthy but she's a 5 times better than Adams in Vice), so she shouldn't be counted out yet either.
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 14, 2019 23:27:15 GMT
She really only has that one scene early-on that felt like an "Oscar clip" moment, otherwise it's not exactly the bait-y role that it was anticipated to be. She of course has her big moment near the beginning of the film, but I actually found that to be a weak scene from her; although, obviously others will disagree. Is this the big scene you guys are talking about? Because this clip corresponds to pages 7-8 in the script, and Lynne Cheney's supposed to be 21 here. If that's Adams's biggest scene, then...
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Post by DeepArcher on Jan 14, 2019 23:34:20 GMT
Is this the big scene you guys are talking about? Because this clip corresponds to pages 7-8 in the script, and Lynne Cheney's supposed to be 21 here. If that's Adams's biggest scene, then... Yes, that's the one. I could be dead wrong saying this, but that's honestly the only scene I remember in which she has more than a few lines. Lynne is practically a fly-on-the-wall most of the film, oddly enough.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 14, 2019 23:49:20 GMT
Is this the big scene you guys are talking about? Because this clip corresponds to pages 7-8 in the script, and Lynne Cheney's supposed to be 21 here. If that's Adams's biggest scene, then... Tbh this scene isn't that bad after watching it a few times. I used to find it horrible.
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Jan 15, 2019 0:10:28 GMT
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 15, 2019 0:30:18 GMT
She really only has that one scene early-on that felt like an "Oscar clip" moment, otherwise it's not exactly the bait-y role that it was anticipated to be. She of course has her big moment near the beginning of the film, but I actually found that to be a weak scene from her; although, obviously others will disagree. Is this the big scene you guys are talking about? Because this clip corresponds to pages 7-8 in the script, and Lynne Cheney's supposed to be 21 here. If that's Adams's biggest scene, then... Sorry I did make a post, but I was having trouble with the spoiler button because I didn't want to inadvertently reveal anything. Then I just deleted it and am hoping this works. Yes, that was also the scene that I was talking about. She has a few other scenes that I remember right now where she gives a speech because Dick is in the hospital, her telling Dick about her mother's death and the big reveal there, and the Shakespeare scene. Unfortunately, I think the trope of the conservative giving a speech about how the libtards are all special snowflakes who are all the Antichrist or basically something along those lines has been done to death now, so while I chuckled, it wasn't exactly original comedy and Adams was fine but not especially deserving of praise, imo.
With the scene where she tells Dick that her mom died that was a pretty big moment for Adams' Cheney that did create some sympathy for her and Adams was good in that scene. However, in the very next scene I think the power might be undone because Bale then gets an even bigger moment when he tells Cheney's father never to come around his children.
Then with the Shakespeare scene, I was already over all the superfluous things that McKay added that the whole scene annoyed me, so other people may have been impressed by Bale and Adams's acting there, but I wanted it to be over.
(I was trying to just spoil small parts of it instead of the whole thing, but it throws off the whole formatting.)
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Post by IceTruckDexter on Jan 15, 2019 0:45:11 GMT
I know I'm betting on the wrong horse but I'm predicting Rachel Weisz at the moment. Christian Bale is the front and center of Vice and even now that Regina King is not contending for the next win, I hear nothing about Amy Adams. Her performance isn't being singled out, the film is messy and divisive, and most everyone feels she would win because the former frontrunner was, for some reason, not nominated. Rachel Weisz is a previous winner, and she's in a faltering film overall, but she's in a very powerful ensemble that's been garnering notices everywhere. It's a total clusterfuck. I think there's also a very slim outside chance that Emily Blunt takes this, which would be amazing for prediction purposes. Why would Weisz be ahead of Stone?
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 15, 2019 7:58:11 GMT
I know I'm betting on the wrong horse but I'm predicting Rachel Weisz at the moment. Christian Bale is the front and center of Vice and even now that Regina King is not contending for the next win, I hear nothing about Amy Adams. Her performance isn't being singled out, the film is messy and divisive, and most everyone feels she would win because the former frontrunner was, for some reason, not nominated. Rachel Weisz is a previous winner, and she's in a faltering film overall, but she's in a very powerful ensemble that's been garnering notices everywhere. It's a total clusterfuck. I think there's also a very slim outside chance that Emily Blunt takes this, which would be amazing for prediction purposes. Why would Weisz be ahead of Stone? She didn't win two years ago, she's the BAFTA frontrunner, she's not perceived as a category fraud.
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Post by IceTruckDexter on Jan 15, 2019 14:03:43 GMT
Why would Weisz be ahead of Stone? She didn't win two years ago, she's the BAFTA frontrunner, she's not perceived as a category fraud. So what? Christoph Waltz won 2 in short period of time and few others and clearly she's very well liked. I can understand seeing Weisz being thp front at Bafta but the fact she only has 1 nomination her whole career doesn't make it clear she'd be ahead of Stone.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jan 15, 2019 14:11:27 GMT
She didn't win two years ago, she's the BAFTA frontrunner, she's not perceived as a category fraud. S o what? Christoph Waltz won 2 in short period of timeIn a category of only previous winners though. I do wish Weisz or Stone would be the frontrunners in this category this year, highly deserved. I'm hoping Weisz will surprise.
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Post by IceTruckDexter on Jan 15, 2019 14:26:14 GMT
S o what? Christoph Waltz won 2 in short period of timeIn a category of only previous winners though. I do wish Weisz or Stone would be the frontrunners in this category this year, highly deserved. I'm hoping Weisz will surprise. So? Stone are Weisz are previous winners. Neither of them are winning because they're gonna split The Favourite vote.
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Jan 17, 2019 23:10:47 GMT
In a category of only previous winners though. I do wish Weisz or Stone would be the frontrunners in this category this year, highly deserved. I'm hoping Weisz will surprise. So? Stone are Weisz are previous winners. Neither of them are winning because they're gonna split The Favourite vote.Oh you mean like that time when Catherine Zeta-Jones defeated (with SAG + BAFTA + OSCAR wins) Queen Latifah for CHICAGO ? I doubt it's happening this year but never say never .
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