|
|
Post by wilcinema on Jan 14, 2019 15:06:39 GMT
So in a few days are the first industry awards. In the last few years there have been quite a few upsets or shocks at this award (The Big Short will always be one of their most unpredicted winners), so what to expect this time? What movie is going to get to the front of the race?
I think this is where A Star Is Born bounces back and takes the lead. BlacKkKlansman might be a thread. Two weeks ago, I would have said that Black Panther and Green Book were huge contenders but they have really cooled off after snubs and controversies. Roma is the biggest enigma: it's clearly beloved by the film community but would American producers really vote for a Netflix-backed foreign-language black-and-white Mexican arthouse film?
|
|
|
|
Post by pacinoyes on Jan 14, 2019 15:20:54 GMT
If I hear one more "Netflix-backed" innuendo that this is a drawback, I literally may bang my head against the wall. It's a non-issue now, Netflix has won the war - all those producers want to work with them now - they see the industry shift/writing on the wall.
But even beyond that the other part is in their favor too - Foreign, Black and White, Mexican, Arthouse is to be respected by them. All of those things are major but if they are merely "respected" though then.....it loses to Green Book I think, that's the battle, everywhere it seems to me. ASIB is 3rd as a threat to win awards, nothing else to me is in the running for anything left......Green Book is the complete Hollywood package, good message, good script, efficient direction, checks off all the boxes in what a movie should do, people love it, no one else has that love, not even Roma (and not a remake - why would the Producers Guild reward a 5th remake - that just screams lack of thought/ideas/creativity etc)
"Roma is the biggest enigma: it's clearly beloved by the film community but would American producers really vote for a Netflix-backed foreign-language black-and-white Mexican arthouse film?"
|
|
Javi
Badass
Posts: 1,535 
Likes: 1,626
|
Post by Javi on Jan 14, 2019 15:30:15 GMT
I honestly have no idea.
If Roma wins this, the race is over. I guess A Star is Born, Green Book or Blackkklansman are more likely, but that's also their problem... there are too many options, and none really stand out.
PGA may just give up and end up giving it to the Mexican movie that's winning everything.
|
|
|
|
Post by bruinjoe96 on Jan 14, 2019 17:24:34 GMT
Maybe this will be the first major award BlacKkKlansman wins.
|
|
Zeb31
Based
Bernardo is not believing que vous êtes come to bing bing avec nous
Posts: 2,557
Likes: 3,794
|
Post by Zeb31 on Jan 14, 2019 18:32:17 GMT
No idea, but I'd love to see a Black Panther or Quiet Place upset, just to fuck the season up even further.
|
|
The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
Posts: 1,155
Likes: 552
|
Post by The-Havok on Jan 14, 2019 18:43:08 GMT
No idea, but I'd love to see a Black Panther or Quiet Place upset, just to fuck the season up even further. IN for that Quiet Place upset |
|
|
|
Post by bruinjoe96 on Jan 14, 2019 18:47:52 GMT
No idea, but I'd love to see a Black Panther or Quiet Place upset, just to fuck the season up even further. IN for that Quiet Place upset Academy Award nominee Michael Bay? |
|
The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
Posts: 1,155
Likes: 552
|
Post by The-Havok on Jan 14, 2019 19:13:16 GMT
IN for that Quiet Place upset Academy Award nominee Michael Bay? I'll light the candles |
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Jan 16, 2019 1:25:11 GMT
I am going with ROMA.
The choices boils to down to either ROMA, VICE, GREEN BOOK, BLACKKKLANSMAN, and A STAR IS BORN. All DGA nominees.
BKK, ASIB, and VICE won nothing major non-acting at the Globes and Critics Choice.
That leaves GREEN BOOK or ROMA. The PGAs are probably going with ROMA. ROMA seems to be the better reviewed film.
|
|
|
|
Post by ingmarhepburn on Jan 16, 2019 12:01:38 GMT
I'm predicting A Star is Born to win PGA and Roma to win the Oscar.
|
|
flasuss
Badass
Posts: 1,830
Likes: 1,615
|
Post by flasuss on Jan 16, 2019 14:41:22 GMT
I'm predicting A Star is Born to win PGA and Roma to win the Oscar. That seems very possible.
But I agree that if Roma wins, it's all over.
|
|
|
|
Post by wilcinema on Jan 18, 2019 19:08:47 GMT
So this is tomorrow.
|
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Jan 18, 2019 23:11:43 GMT
So in a few days are the first industry awards. In the last few years there have been quite a few upsets or shocks at this award (The Big Short will always be one of their most unpredicted winners), so what to expect this time? What movie is going to get to the front of the race?
I think this is where A Star Is Born bounces back and takes the lead. BlacKkKlansman might be a thread. Two weeks ago, I would have said that Black Panther and Green Book were huge contenders but they have really cooled off after snubs and controversies. Roma is the biggest enigma: it's clearly beloved by the film community but would American producers really vote for a Netflix-backed foreign-language black-and-white Mexican arthouse film?
Why in the world are you predicting A Star is Born here? The film won ZERO directing, writing, or picture awards at the Critics Choice and Globe awards. You mentioned the The Big Short, but that film won a writing award at the Critics Choice awards. Lets look at the previous winners: 2017 - The Shape of Water (Critics Choice Best Picture and Director winner, Globe Best Director winner) 2016 - La La Land (Swept the Globes and Critics Choice awards) 2015 - The Big Short (Critics Choice Best Adapted Screenplay winner) 2014 - Birdman (Critics Choice Original Screenplay winner) 2013 - 12 Years A Slave (won the Globe and Critics Choice Best Picture. Won Adapted Screenplay at Critics Choice Awards) 2012 - Argo (Won Globes and Critics Choice for Picture and Director) 2011 - The Artist (Critics Choice winner for Picture and Director, Globe winner for Best Picture) 2010 - The King's Speech (Critics Choice Screenplay winner) I could go on, but find a PGA and you'll see a Critics Choice or Globe connection. |
|
|
|
Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 19, 2019 15:47:06 GMT
I’m still predicting A Star is Born but I could also see a scenario where Bohemian Rhapsody wins which would be hilarious.
|
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Jan 19, 2019 21:24:18 GMT
No clue. Going with Green Book.
|
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Jan 19, 2019 22:21:54 GMT
Gonna throw caution to the wind: BlacKkKlansman.
|
|
hilderic
Junior Member
Posts: 307
Likes: 132
|
Post by hilderic on Jan 20, 2019 1:27:53 GMT
I think it's between BlacKkKlansman and A Star is Born. Bohemian Rhapsody is of course a producer's dream (grossing 15 times its budget and counting), but...
|
|
The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
Posts: 1,155
Likes: 552
|
Post by The-Havok on Jan 20, 2019 2:22:43 GMT
Green Book will win
|
|
chris3
Badass
I just ordered a slice of pumpkin pie...
Posts: 1,051
Likes: 1,047
|
Post by chris3 on Jan 20, 2019 2:33:31 GMT
Crossing my fingers for Roma. I don't want to predict it and jinx myself, and honestly I think it's sort of anyone's game after Roma. Most people thought A Star is Born was seated comfortably in the #2 position but honestly after its recent under-performance I'm starting to think that it's more like #6 or #7.
Even though I'm not a huge fan of any of the following films, I do think it's awesome that this year seems to be uncommonly unpredictable, even with the guilds. I feel like it's anyone's game. BlacKkKlansman could definitely take PGA. Black Panther too. I wouldn't be surprised to see Green Book get it, since it seems to be a huge hit within the industry (not a huge hit box office-wise, but its target audience loved the film). I also think Vice has a sizable number of supporters in the industry, and after the inexplicable win for The Big Short the PGA proved that they do in fact enjoy McKay's horrendously awful directorial style, so I do think Vice could pull off a surprise victory. And honestly, I even think people are underestimating Bohemian Rhapsody's chances too. It's a worldwide smash hit, beloved by the masses in spite of significant critical and film community hatred. It's a huge success story for a film that has spent many years in development hell. I don't think Singer's name will tarnish the film for anyone in the Producer's Guild, just like it didn't for the mainstream public. Yeah, the movie's not "good", but neither was The Big Short or Argo. And it ends with a rousing set piece that is genuinely good enough to make most people forget about the preceding two hours of mediocrity. After the Globes I honestly think PGA is its best shot for awards glory (outside of possibly Malek for Actor). And then we're back to A Star is Born, which still has the possibility of making a big comeback in the race and reclaiming its place as an aggressive #2. All of the major contenders have a shot here, maybe for the last time in this awards cycle.
PGA is basically win/win for me. They're either going to seal the deal for Roma (my favorite film of the year) or go with any of the above nominees and throw another wrench in the race, allowing this weird, unpredictable awards season to stay weird and unpredictable.
|
|
dazed
Based
Posts: 2,640
Likes: 1,802
|
Post by dazed on Jan 20, 2019 2:36:34 GMT
So in a few days are the first industry awards. In the last few years there have been quite a few upsets or shocks at this award (The Big Short will always be one of their most unpredicted winners), so what to expect this time? What movie is going to get to the front of the race?
I think this is where A Star Is Born bounces back and takes the lead. BlacKkKlansman might be a thread. Two weeks ago, I would have said that Black Panther and Green Book were huge contenders but they have really cooled off after snubs and controversies. Roma is the biggest enigma: it's clearly beloved by the film community but would American producers really vote for a Netflix-backed foreign-language black-and-white Mexican arthouse film?
Why in the world are you predicting A Star is Born here? The film won ZERO directing, writing, or picture awards at the Critics Choice and Globe awards. You mentioned the The Big Short, but that film won a writing award at the Critics Choice awards. Lets look at the previous winners: 2017 - The Shape of Water (Critics Choice Best Picture and Director winner, Globe Best Director winner) 2016 - La La Land (Swept the Globes and Critics Choice awards) 2015 - The Big Short (Critics Choice Best Adapted Screenplay winner) 2014 - Birdman (Critics Choice Original Screenplay winner) 2013 - 12 Years A Slave (won the Globe and Critics Choice Best Picture. Won Adapted Screenplay at Critics Choice Awards) 2012 - Argo (Won Globes and Critics Choice for Picture and Director) 2011 - The Artist (Critics Choice winner for Picture and Director, Globe winner for Best Picture) 2010 - The King's Speech (Critics Choice Screenplay winner) I could go on, but find a PGA and you'll see a Critics Choice or Globe connection. Here will be some more statistics and patterns that will be deemed useless after tonight. |
|
morton
Based
Posts: 2,811
Likes: 2,954
|
Post by morton on Jan 20, 2019 4:04:29 GMT
I voted for Roma just because I can see it winning everything else now (BAFTA, DGA, WGA), but other than Crazy Rich Asians, The Favourite, A Quiet Place, and Vice, I could see any of the other films winning tonight.
Everything seems to have cons, so who knows?
Black Panther - Made a lot of money and would be a way to reward Marvel for what they've achieved. On the other hand, this film has underwhelmed so far with the guilds, and this prize isn't solely about what made the most money.
BlacKkKlansman - Done very well being nominated at the guilds and precursors, but it still hasn't won anything yet.
Bohemian Rhapsody - I can't rule this out even with the controversy because it's made so much money and has done very well awards and guilds wise so far. I still think this will end up losing in the end because of the controversy, but I won't really be surprised if it ends up winning either. Upset but not surprised.
Green Book - Everyone in the industry seems to love it, but could the controversy hurt it? Also while it did well at the box office, compared to other crowd pleasers along the same lines The Blind Side, The Help, and Hidden Figures, it's just not in the same league.
Roma - So far everything has pretty much gone its way, I guess we'll see tonight if the industry will follow the two televised precursors.
A Star Is Born - It's shown up everywhere, but so far has underperformed win wise. It could be a sign that people like it enough but don't love it enough to award it.
|
|
morton
Based
Posts: 2,811
Likes: 2,954
|
Post by morton on Jan 20, 2019 6:29:00 GMT
Meh Green Book won. Fuck it's probably winning Best Picture now.
Poor Spike. Driving Miss Daisy Part 2.
|
|
jakob
Full Member
Posts: 827
Likes: 698
|
Post by jakob on Jan 20, 2019 6:38:09 GMT
Good Christ.
Is most of Hollywood a secret cult of Green Book d_cksucking?
|
|
|
|
Post by mrimpossible on Jan 20, 2019 6:42:55 GMT
Green Book feels like Crash. Almost no one outside of Hollywood seems passionate for it. I mean look at the box office. The freaking Upside is going to out gross it in just 2 weeks. Yeah that might’ve had Kevin Hart but Green Book had awards buzz... IDK seems like a random winner to me.
|
|
|
|
Post by Billy_Costigan on Jan 20, 2019 6:42:59 GMT
Green Book winning PGA just means we don't know what's winning at this point. Roma winning would have ended the conversation. This feels more like The Big Short.
Green Book isn't winning DGA. It's not even nominated for SAG and I doubt it wins BAFTA without a directing nod. We could have different winners at each ceremony.
Blackkklansman can still win SAG and BP a la Spotlight.
|
|
