Results - 9th Annual BP Preferential Ballot Simulation
Jan 28, 2020 3:59:07 GMT
mhynson27 and morton like this
Post by acmilan03c1 on Jan 28, 2020 3:59:07 GMT
First off, thanks again to everyone who voted!
Actual votes collected from these places (other threads were posted to but got no replies), over 3-4 days:
movie-awards-redux.freeforums.net/thread/15056/annual-picture-preferential-ballot-simulation - 26 votes
www.awardsdaily.com/2020/01/24/plot-twist-film-critics-suddenly-invested-in-the-oscars-they-used-to-say-meant-nothing/ - 16 votes
www.awardsdaily.com/2020/01/23/dga-preview-part-two-a-deeper-dive-into-the-stats/ - 12 votes
www.awardsdaily.com/2020/01/25/directors-cinematographers-sound-mixing-and-scripters-winners/ - 6 votes
www.awardsdaily.com/2020/01/23/david-fcking-fincher-awards-brad-pitt-his-modern-master-award-at-sbiff/ - 1 vote
www.awardsdaily.com/2020/01/24/predictions-friday-dga-asc-cas-scripter/ - 1 vote
60 votes in total this year. Fewer than in previous years (75 last year) - I maybe didn't have time to post the request as often or as many places as I did other years. Still, this should be enough to get a good idea. 25 votes collected from Movie Awards Redux, 35 from Awards Daily. I suspect two people (not naming names - unless asked to) may have voted both places, as both their usernames and ballot rankings were extremely similar (one or two neighboring entries, tops, switching places towards the bottom of the ballot, in each case, with the rest being identical), so I only counted one ballot for each, just to be safe. There were also two 100% identical ballots at Movie Awards Redux, but from different usernames, so I have to assume that's more likely than not just a coincidence - therefore, both were counted, in that case.
So, as usual, something interesting happened... As mentioned in the announcement, the stakes here were more about what would get second place, not because Parasite was obviously always going to win (it almost won on the first round, in fact, something that has never been even remotely close to happening before, as far as I can remember - it needed two more votes to do so, although it should be noted that it then took no fewer than four elimination rounds to get there, to over 50% of the votes, so maybe the preferential ballot isn't so much its thing, necessarily), but because the last six runners-up (or, in Three Billboards' case, the movie that tied for the runner-up position) in this simulation all lost the Best Picture vote at the Oscars as well and, more importantly, were in fact also the likely/stats runners-up in the Oscar race (Gravity, Boyhood, The Revenant, La La Land, Three Billboards and Roma) - twice, losing to the movie that also beat them in this simulation (Birdman, Moonlight), and the other four times to some other movie the internet wasn't as taken with...
For the record, again, the history, with this year's results added:
2011 The Social Network ----- details not saved (second place was Black Swan, I believe)
2012 - not held -
2013 Zero Dark Thirty --------- 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her -------------------------- 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on total first place votes
2015 Birdman -------------------- 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road --- 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight ------------------ 41-32 over La La Land
2018 Phantom Thread --------- 39-33 over Call Me By Your Name *
2019 The Favourite ------------- 45-30 over Roma
2020 Parasite ------------------- 46-14 over The Irishman **
* Three Billboards was tied for second place with Call Me By Your Name when it got eliminated in third (on tiebreaks/which of them collected a higher percentage of the other's votes).
As can be seen, Parasite had the biggest winning margin ever, by far - being ranked higher than second-placed The Irishman on more than three times as many ballots. This is not a big surprise - a bit of a surprise (to me, at least) is, perhaps, The Irishman finishing so high in the rankings... What this huge margin for Parasite means is difficult to say. I don't think there's any clear-cut conclusion to be drawn about whether it's a good sign for its Oscar chances or not. We'll find out soon enough.
** Now, the (other) interesting thing that happened was that, while 1917 was not tied for second place with The Irishman at the time Parasite managed to surpass the required 50% of the votes (with only these three remaining), it was ranked ahead of The Irishman on exactly as many ballots as not, overall, meaning 30/60 for both, therefore, with Parasite out of the picture (and assuming they would have also survived past the eliminations of the other movies in that scenario, as they did here), the two would have finished in a tie for first. But The Irishman did have (a lot) more first place votes in Round 1, so it should be considered the clear second place finisher. Nevertheless, perhaps it is worth noting that both I and my mother would have ranked 1917 ahead of The Irishman (for me it's very close, but I have an official ranking of what I've seen so far and 1917 is ahead in that - both are on the fringes of my top 10 -, plus I gave my ranking before, in the announcement), so, had we seen all of the movies required and thus been able to vote, as at least one of us (usually both) has every other year, 1917 would have had more of a claim to coming in second place. (Also, both of the ballots I ruled out due to being too similar in username and ranking order also had 1917 higher than The Irishman.)
So, long story short, we probably can't say 1917 was either second or tied for second in this, but it came about as close as it could have, and that might not be totally irrelevant. Again, we'll know in a bit... As usual, the round-by-round breakdown of the results:
Round 1:
Parasite 29
The Irishman 9
1917 5
Little Women 4
Marriage Story 4
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood 4
Jojo Rabbit 2
Joker 2
Ford vs. Ferrari 1 out!
Round 2:
Parasite 29
The Irishman 9
1917 5
Little Women 4
Marriage Story 4
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood 4
Joker 3
Jojo Rabbit 2 out!
Round 3:
Parasite 29
The Irishman 9
1917 6
Little Women 5
Marriage Story 4
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood 4
Joker 3 out!
Round 4:
Parasite 29
The Irishman 9
1917 8
Little Women 5
Marriage Story 5
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood 4 out!
Round 5:
Parasite 30
The Irishman 10
1917 8
Little Women 6 out!
Marriage Story 6 out!
Round 6:
Parasite 39 winner (>50%)
The Irishman 12
1917 9
After adding 1917's ballots:
Parasite 46
The Irishman 14
Actual votes collected from these places (other threads were posted to but got no replies), over 3-4 days:
movie-awards-redux.freeforums.net/thread/15056/annual-picture-preferential-ballot-simulation - 26 votes
www.awardsdaily.com/2020/01/24/plot-twist-film-critics-suddenly-invested-in-the-oscars-they-used-to-say-meant-nothing/ - 16 votes
www.awardsdaily.com/2020/01/23/dga-preview-part-two-a-deeper-dive-into-the-stats/ - 12 votes
www.awardsdaily.com/2020/01/25/directors-cinematographers-sound-mixing-and-scripters-winners/ - 6 votes
www.awardsdaily.com/2020/01/23/david-fcking-fincher-awards-brad-pitt-his-modern-master-award-at-sbiff/ - 1 vote
www.awardsdaily.com/2020/01/24/predictions-friday-dga-asc-cas-scripter/ - 1 vote
60 votes in total this year. Fewer than in previous years (75 last year) - I maybe didn't have time to post the request as often or as many places as I did other years. Still, this should be enough to get a good idea. 25 votes collected from Movie Awards Redux, 35 from Awards Daily. I suspect two people (not naming names - unless asked to) may have voted both places, as both their usernames and ballot rankings were extremely similar (one or two neighboring entries, tops, switching places towards the bottom of the ballot, in each case, with the rest being identical), so I only counted one ballot for each, just to be safe. There were also two 100% identical ballots at Movie Awards Redux, but from different usernames, so I have to assume that's more likely than not just a coincidence - therefore, both were counted, in that case.
So, as usual, something interesting happened... As mentioned in the announcement, the stakes here were more about what would get second place, not because Parasite was obviously always going to win (it almost won on the first round, in fact, something that has never been even remotely close to happening before, as far as I can remember - it needed two more votes to do so, although it should be noted that it then took no fewer than four elimination rounds to get there, to over 50% of the votes, so maybe the preferential ballot isn't so much its thing, necessarily), but because the last six runners-up (or, in Three Billboards' case, the movie that tied for the runner-up position) in this simulation all lost the Best Picture vote at the Oscars as well and, more importantly, were in fact also the likely/stats runners-up in the Oscar race (Gravity, Boyhood, The Revenant, La La Land, Three Billboards and Roma) - twice, losing to the movie that also beat them in this simulation (Birdman, Moonlight), and the other four times to some other movie the internet wasn't as taken with...
For the record, again, the history, with this year's results added:
2011 The Social Network ----- details not saved (second place was Black Swan, I believe)
2012 - not held -
2013 Zero Dark Thirty --------- 37-24 over Silver Linings Playbook
2014 Her -------------------------- 33-33 tied with Gravity, won 19-18 on total first place votes
2015 Birdman -------------------- 62-61 over Boyhood
2016 Mad Max: Fury Road --- 51-37 over The Revenant
2017 Moonlight ------------------ 41-32 over La La Land
2018 Phantom Thread --------- 39-33 over Call Me By Your Name *
2019 The Favourite ------------- 45-30 over Roma
2020 Parasite ------------------- 46-14 over The Irishman **
* Three Billboards was tied for second place with Call Me By Your Name when it got eliminated in third (on tiebreaks/which of them collected a higher percentage of the other's votes).
As can be seen, Parasite had the biggest winning margin ever, by far - being ranked higher than second-placed The Irishman on more than three times as many ballots. This is not a big surprise - a bit of a surprise (to me, at least) is, perhaps, The Irishman finishing so high in the rankings... What this huge margin for Parasite means is difficult to say. I don't think there's any clear-cut conclusion to be drawn about whether it's a good sign for its Oscar chances or not. We'll find out soon enough.
** Now, the (other) interesting thing that happened was that, while 1917 was not tied for second place with The Irishman at the time Parasite managed to surpass the required 50% of the votes (with only these three remaining), it was ranked ahead of The Irishman on exactly as many ballots as not, overall, meaning 30/60 for both, therefore, with Parasite out of the picture (and assuming they would have also survived past the eliminations of the other movies in that scenario, as they did here), the two would have finished in a tie for first. But The Irishman did have (a lot) more first place votes in Round 1, so it should be considered the clear second place finisher. Nevertheless, perhaps it is worth noting that both I and my mother would have ranked 1917 ahead of The Irishman (for me it's very close, but I have an official ranking of what I've seen so far and 1917 is ahead in that - both are on the fringes of my top 10 -, plus I gave my ranking before, in the announcement), so, had we seen all of the movies required and thus been able to vote, as at least one of us (usually both) has every other year, 1917 would have had more of a claim to coming in second place. (Also, both of the ballots I ruled out due to being too similar in username and ranking order also had 1917 higher than The Irishman.)
So, long story short, we probably can't say 1917 was either second or tied for second in this, but it came about as close as it could have, and that might not be totally irrelevant. Again, we'll know in a bit... As usual, the round-by-round breakdown of the results:
Round 1:
Parasite 29
The Irishman 9
1917 5
Little Women 4
Marriage Story 4
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood 4
Jojo Rabbit 2
Joker 2
Ford vs. Ferrari 1 out!
Round 2:
Parasite 29
The Irishman 9
1917 5
Little Women 4
Marriage Story 4
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood 4
Joker 3
Jojo Rabbit 2 out!
Round 3:
Parasite 29
The Irishman 9
1917 6
Little Women 5
Marriage Story 4
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood 4
Joker 3 out!
Round 4:
Parasite 29
The Irishman 9
1917 8
Little Women 5
Marriage Story 5
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood 4 out!
Round 5:
Parasite 30
The Irishman 10
1917 8
Little Women 6 out!
Marriage Story 6 out!
Round 6:
Parasite 39 winner (>50%)
The Irishman 12
1917 9
After adding 1917's ballots:
Parasite 46
The Irishman 14
Let's just say that this was the most hyped movie of the past few years around these parts.
Was not aware...
