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Post by DeepArcher on Jan 26, 2020 21:25:38 GMT
Wish I had the gall to be picking Parasite and that's what I'm rooting for of the viable options, but trying to be a realist here I think it'll definitely be 1917. The love for Parasite will come through in its other wins, in Original Screenplay and perhaps in Editing, but I think its victories will be limited to those other categories.
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Post by mrimpossible on Jan 26, 2020 21:28:34 GMT
I think Parasite will win. Picture, Original Screenplay and Foreign Language Film. So 3 Oscars which is what's been typical for the past 10 or so years. I wouldn't count it out for Editing, either. I'm predicting Ford v Ferrari to win that. But wouldn't be surprised if Parasite takes it. I could see also Irishman or Joker upsetting. It's a competitive category.
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Post by stephen on Jan 26, 2020 21:35:44 GMT
I wouldn't count it out for Editing, either. I'm predicting Ford v Ferrari to win that. But wouldn't be surprised if Parasite takes. I could see also Irishman or Joker upsetting. It's a competitive category. Ford v. Ferrari losing ACE really threw a kink into everything. It should've been a slam dunk, the sort of movie it is . . . and yet Jojo won out over it. It still can win, but I'm really thinking Parasite (which is flashy in and of itself; that montage has thinkpieces about it out there!) has the muscle to take it. The Roma comparisons really don't resonate; they're two entirely different movies in tone, style, and the only thing they really share is the foreign language barrier. Parasite is far more accessible, and I think it can do the one thing Roma couldn't: have broad appeal. SAG Ensemble showed that it could.
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Post by mrimpossible on Jan 26, 2020 21:41:35 GMT
I'm predicting Ford v Ferrari to win that. But wouldn't be surprised if Parasite takes. I could see also Irishman or Joker upsetting. It's a competitive category. Ford v. Ferrari losing ACE really threw a kink into everything. It should've been a slam dunk, the sort of movie it is . . . and yet Jojo won out over it. It still can win, but I'm really thinking Parasite (which is flashy in and of itself; that montage has thinkpieces about it out there!) has the muscle to take it. The Roma comparisons really don't resonate; they're two entirely different movies in tone, style, and the only thing they really share is the foreign language barrier. Parasite is far more accessible, and I think it can do the one thing Roma couldn't: have broad appeal. SAG Ensemble showed that it could. I didn't know about ACE, still think Ford v Ferrari takes it. I'm not making any comparisons to Roma. I'm actually predicting Parasite to do win Best Picture. (I'm predicting 3 Oscars for it - Best Picture, Original Screenplay and Foreign Language)
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Post by stephen on Jan 26, 2020 21:46:07 GMT
Ford v. Ferrari losing ACE really threw a kink into everything. It should've been a slam dunk, the sort of movie it is . . . and yet Jojo won out over it. It still can win, but I'm really thinking Parasite (which is flashy in and of itself; that montage has thinkpieces about it out there!) has the muscle to take it. The Roma comparisons really don't resonate; they're two entirely different movies in tone, style, and the only thing they really share is the foreign language barrier. Parasite is far more accessible, and I think it can do the one thing Roma couldn't: have broad appeal. SAG Ensemble showed that it could. I didn't know about ACE, still think Ford v Ferrari takes it. I'm not making any comparisons to Roma. I'm actually predicting Parasite to do win Best Picture. (I'm predicting 3 Oscars for it - Best Picture, Original Screenplay and Foreign Language) The Roma comparison wasn't directed at you specifically; it's just that I've heard people complain about how Parasite wouldn't be able to do it if Roma couldn't, despite the latter film having drawbacks the former doesn't.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 26, 2020 22:12:37 GMT
Wish I had the gall to be picking Parasite and that's what I'm rooting for of the viable options, but trying to be a realist here I think it'll definitely be 1917. The love for Parasite will come through in its other wins, in Original Screenplay and perhaps in Editing, but I think its victories will be limited to those other categories. Same. I want Parasite to win, but Globe + PGA + DGA (probably BAFTA as well) is one hell of a combo to be up against.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 26, 2020 22:28:57 GMT
Bringing last year up. I switched to King in my Gold Derby and Awards Daily picks, because she won the Globe and Critics Choice. You want to respond to how Parasite has "passion" other than internet favoritism. Winning the SAG and ACE is hardly a sign of "passion". It's a sign of guild support, in a way that favors a movie that comes with the baggage of being a foreign language winner. Yes, it didn't have to contend with 1917 in those categories . . . but it shows remarkable support for being able to beat out major movies from industry favorites like Scorsese and Tarantino. And the word of mouth around it from audiences is insane, and in that respect it beats the likes of Roma (which had critical prestige but didn't have the audience love factor that this film does). Stats-wise, 1917's in the lead . . . but it's not a done deal. Upsets happen all the time.Agree. When I think of locks, I think of Argo, Slumdog, No Country, Return of the King, Chicago, American Beauty, and Dances With Wolves. This year, I see three potential winners with 1917, Once and Parasite.
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