Who wins Best Picture? (Post PGA, SAG and DGA)

We don't know who got in 2nd place or the final vote tallies for any of these awards. But I am very hesitant to put Parasite as the favorite to win. Very hesitate. For starters, it's an "international film". Those never win. I can see Oscar voters saying "I can't follow subtitles" and "It's going to win Best International Film, therefore, I am going to move it down on my BP ballot". What Parasite does have in its favor, is the simple fact that it was nominated for director, writing and editing. I can easily see, much like with Crash, Moonlight and Green Book, a late break toward it. As in, it's still going to be the underdog, but Vegas odds showing it's neck-and-neck with the favorite. But it starts with winning the WGA and the BAFTA for Best Original Screenplay over Tarantino's script.

Oh yeah, it definitely needs to start picking up the pace in Original Screenplay, but I think the Bong love is definitely real and I don't feel there's that much of an urgency to give Tarantino a third writing Oscar. The Globes were always going to favor him because they love their stars and Critics' Choice is a useless precursor. Parasite taking the prize at WGA would give it necessary momentum, and I think BAFTA will follow suit.

What Parasite has is the passion vote and it's the biggest threat to 1917.  You can't just always quote stats - they are broken all the time.  I think the race for Picture and Director will be close.  And if 1917 prevails, I can still see Parasite getting Original Screenplay so it will have an above the line win, in addition to International Film.  Tarantino has already won it twice, and OUATIH will be getting Supporting Actor.

Stats aren't gospel.

There have obviously been exceptions in the past but I don't see how a movie with a DGA/PGA and Globe Drama win can't be considered the overwhelming favorite. A movie with that awards resume is going to win BP 70-80 percent of the time. 

True, but generally speaking, the real corollary to Best Picture of late hasn't been Best Director (there have been more splits than not lately) but Screenplay. Every BP this decade save for The Artist and The Shape of Water have won a writing prize (and in the decade before that, 7/10 BP winners won in writing as well). The former also won an acting prize, and the latter had three acting nominations. 1917 doesn't really have a corollary in recent Academy history save for possibly Braveheart, which is a shaky corollary at best.

Parasite might be the first foreign language film to make a bid for the top prize, but we've never really had a phenomenon quite like it in that respect, and it has done exceedingly well. It didn't get an acting nod, but it won SAG Ensemble and got rapturous response from it (showing a great deal of passion for it), and it beat out heavy-hitting A-list ensembles in the bargain starring the biggest names in Hollywood. And unlike 1917, it has a very strong shot of winning a writing prize. Plus it could also win Editing as well.

Grand Hotel, but your point is taken. Either way, one or more major trend's getting bucked.

It's a sign of guild support, in a way that favors a movie that comes with the baggage of being a foreign language winner. Yes, it didn't have to contend with 1917 in those categories . . . but it shows remarkable support for being able to beat out major movies from industry favorites like Scorsese and Tarantino. And the word of mouth around it from audiences is insane, and in that respect it beats the likes of Roma (which had critical prestige but didn't have the audience love factor that this film does).

Stats-wise, 1917's in the lead . . . but it's not a done deal. Upsets happen all the time.

On paper, Roma's chances last year were much much better than Parasite's this year. Yeah upsets can happen but its window of opportunity seems to be getting smaller and smaller. I think Parasite gets FLF and either screenplay or director, but I could also see it walk away with FLF and nothing else.

As much as I'd love seeing Bong break that foreign language ceiling... I'm not seeing it this year. And if Roma and Parasite can't do it, who the hell can? Foreign language films have never won BP before and only 12 have been nominated (compared to a whopping 31 directing nominations for foreign films, not to mention all the screenplay nods). These statistics feel insurmountable. And yeah, someday that might change and every year is different but that's like saying someday there will have been 100 acting nominations for Asian women. Yeah, sure... Someday.

The stats are literally depressing for foreign language films. They rarely get traction in BP and yet have collectively over a 100 nods for directing and screenplay which are the two most significant above-the-line categories behind BP, and that's not even to mention acting. That's no coincidence.