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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 26, 2020 14:44:15 GMT
Lets review the scorecard for this week:
1917 - Golden Globe (Drama), PGA, DGA
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - Golden Globe (Comedy/Musical), Critics Choice
Parasite - SAG Ensemble (The Actor's Best Picture award)
Other Relevant Stats:
- 79% or 72/91 Best Picture winners were nominated for directing, writing and editing. That puts The Irishman and Joker in the finalist list.
- Since 1989, when the PGA was introduced, no Best Picture winner failed to win the PGA, DGA and WGA.
- Out of Africa, Chariots of Fire, In the Heat of the Night, Oliver! and Greatest Show on Earth did not win the DGA or the WGA.
- 21/30 or 70% of all PGA winners have gone on to win Best Picture. 8/10 since the preferential ballot was introduced. - 55/72 DGA winners have gone on to win Best Picture or 76%.
- 1941's Rebecca was the last time a film won Best Picture without any acting, writing, or directing wins.
- When the PGA and DGA have matched, there's been a 68% (17/22) chance of winning Best Picture. The exceptions were Apollo 13, Saving Private Ryan, Brokeback Mountain, Gravity and La La Land.
Who wins Best Picture? Last week, it was an even split between 1917 and Parasite.
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Post by stephen on Jan 26, 2020 15:29:05 GMT
I still think Parasite wins it. Losing PGA was a blow, but SAG Ensemble was a major get and speaks to the passion it has in the biggest branch of the Academy: the actors. 1917 was favored by the preferential ballot at PGA but we have no idea how close Parasite was (likely #2), and it cannot be overstated how much passion that little film has gotten throughout the year.
Either way, I'm happy with either film winning the top prize.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 26, 2020 15:47:47 GMT
I still think Parasite wins it. Losing PGA was a blow, but SAG Ensemble was a major get and speaks to the passion it has in the biggest branch of the Academy: the actors. 1917 was favored by the preferential ballot at PGA but we have no idea how close Parasite was (likely #2), and it cannot be overstated how much passion that little film has gotten throughout the year. Either way, I'm happy with either film winning the top prize. We don't know who got in 2nd place or the final vote tallies for any of these awards. But I am very hesitant to put Parasite as the favorite to win. Very hesitate. For starters, it's an "international film". Those never win. I can see Oscar voters saying "I can't follow subtitles" and "It's going to win Best International Film, therefore, I am going to move it down on my BP ballot". What Parasite does have in its favor, is the simple fact that it was nominated for director, writing and editing. I can easily see, much like with Crash, Moonlight and Green Book, a late break toward it. As in, it's still going to be the underdog, but Vegas odds showing it's neck-and-neck with the favorite. But it starts with winning the WGA and the BAFTA for Best Original Screenplay over Tarantino's script.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 26, 2020 16:23:14 GMT
I think 1917 is a lock now. No Parasite, no OUATIH.
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Post by stephen on Jan 26, 2020 17:40:00 GMT
I still think Parasite wins it. Losing PGA was a blow, but SAG Ensemble was a major get and speaks to the passion it has in the biggest branch of the Academy: the actors. 1917 was favored by the preferential ballot at PGA but we have no idea how close Parasite was (likely #2), and it cannot be overstated how much passion that little film has gotten throughout the year. Either way, I'm happy with either film winning the top prize. We don't know who got in 2nd place or the final vote tallies for any of these awards. But I am very hesitant to put Parasite as the favorite to win. Very hesitate. For starters, it's an "international film". Those never win. I can see Oscar voters saying "I can't follow subtitles" and "It's going to win Best International Film, therefore, I am going to move it down on my BP ballot". What Parasite does have in its favor, is the simple fact that it was nominated for director, writing and editing. I can easily see, much like with Crash, Moonlight and Green Book, a late break toward it. As in, it's still going to be the underdog, but Vegas odds showing it's neck-and-neck with the favorite. But it starts with winning the WGA and the BAFTA for Best Original Screenplay over Tarantino's script. Oh yeah, it definitely needs to start picking up the pace in Original Screenplay, but I think the Bong love is definitely real and I don't feel there's that much of an urgency to give Tarantino a third writing Oscar. The Globes were always going to favor him because they love their stars and Critics' Choice is a useless precursor. Parasite taking the prize at WGA would give it necessary momentum, and I think BAFTA will follow suit.
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Post by Pavan on Jan 26, 2020 17:59:41 GMT
I still think Parasite will win Picture, Screenplay, Editing and International feature while Mendes takes director.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 26, 2020 18:01:30 GMT
I still think Parasite wins it. Losing PGA was a blow, but SAG Ensemble was a major get and speaks to the passion it has in the biggest branch of the Academy: the actors. 1917 was favored by the preferential ballot at PGA but we have no idea how close Parasite was (likely #2), and it cannot be overstated how much passion that little film has gotten throughout the year. Either way, I'm happy with either film winning the top prize. We don't know who got in 2nd place or the final vote tallies for any of these awards. But I am very hesitant to put Parasite as the favorite to win. Very hesitate. For starters, it's an "international film". Those never win. I can see Oscar voters saying "I can't follow subtitles" and "It's going to win Best International Film, therefore, I am going to move it down on my BP ballot". What Parasite does have in its favor, is the simple fact that it was nominated for director, writing and editing. I can easily see, much like with Crash, Moonlight and Green Book, a late break toward it. As in, it's still going to be the underdog, but Vegas odds showing it's neck-and-neck with the favorite. But it starts with winning the WGA and the BAFTA for Best Original Screenplay over Tarantino's script. What Parasite has is the passion vote and it's the biggest threat to 1917. You can't just always quote stats - they are broken all the time. I think the race for Picture and Director will be close. And if 1917 prevails, I can still see Parasite getting Original Screenplay so it will have an above the line win, in addition to International Film. Tarantino has already won it twice, and OUATIH will be getting Supporting Actor.
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Post by countjohn on Jan 26, 2020 18:23:03 GMT
These Parasite votes are wishful thinking. 1917 is the clear favorite, just look at the stats in the OP. SAG ensemble isn't even an overly strong BP predictor (the ensemble winner doesn't win BP a majority of the time in fact) and that's the only major win it has right now in terms of Oscar precursors.
Another thing to remember is that Parasite doesn't have a single acting nomination. So I'm not sure how well that ensemble win is going to translate considering Academy voters obviously weren't as enthused about the acting as SAG voters.
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Post by stephen on Jan 26, 2020 18:25:18 GMT
These Parasite votes are wishful thinking. 1917 is the clear favorite, just look at the stats in the OP. SAG ensemble isn't even an overly strong BP predictor (the ensemble winner doesn't win BP a majority of the time in fact) and that's the only major win it has right now in terms of Oscar precursors. Stats aren't gospel.
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dazed
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Post by dazed on Jan 26, 2020 18:26:49 GMT
I keep going back and forth between 1917 and Parasite, but I’m going with 1917. It takes home both director and picture.
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Post by countjohn on Jan 26, 2020 18:28:05 GMT
These Parasite votes are wishful thinking. 1917 is the clear favorite, just look at the stats in the OP. SAG ensemble isn't even an overly strong BP predictor (the ensemble winner doesn't win BP a majority of the time in fact) and that's the only major win it has right now in terms of Oscar precursors. Stats aren't gospel. There have obviously been exceptions in the past but I don't see how a movie with a DGA/PGA and Globe Drama win can't be considered the overwhelming favorite. A movie with that awards resume is going to win BP 70-80 percent of the time.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 26, 2020 18:44:49 GMT
We don't know who got in 2nd place or the final vote tallies for any of these awards. But I am very hesitant to put Parasite as the favorite to win. Very hesitate. For starters, it's an "international film". Those never win. I can see Oscar voters saying "I can't follow subtitles" and "It's going to win Best International Film, therefore, I am going to move it down on my BP ballot". What Parasite does have in its favor, is the simple fact that it was nominated for director, writing and editing. I can easily see, much like with Crash, Moonlight and Green Book, a late break toward it. As in, it's still going to be the underdog, but Vegas odds showing it's neck-and-neck with the favorite. But it starts with winning the WGA and the BAFTA for Best Original Screenplay over Tarantino's script. What Parasite has is the passion vote and it's the biggest threat to 1917. You can't just always quote stats - they are broken all the time. I think the race for Picture and Director will be close. And if 1917 prevails, I can still see Parasite getting Original Screenplay so it will have an above the line win, in addition to International Film. Tarantino has already won it twice, and OUATIH will be getting Supporting Actor. I would place it 1917, Once and then Parasite. I am not sure if I understand the "passion vote" comment. 1917 won the PGA and DGA, and won the most Guild awards this Oscar season. It won the Globe for Drama and Director. You would think that would be the "passion vote".
I see no reason why the best director race will be "close". Mendes won the DGA, along with the globe and critics choice.
Tarantino has won twice, but so what? That didn't stop Walter Brennan, John Ford, Frank Capra, Daniel Day-Lewis, Woody Allen or Clint Eastwood.
And as I have said before, Parasite wins the WGA and the BAFTA, there's a good shot, it'll be one of those late breakers. My sense is the biggest threat to 1917 is Once Upon a Time, due to it being favored to win Best Supporting Actor and Best Original Screenplay, and a tribute to Hollywood itself.
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Post by stephen on Jan 26, 2020 18:47:51 GMT
There have obviously been exceptions in the past but I don't see how a movie with a DGA/PGA and Globe Drama win can't be considered the overwhelming favorite. A movie with that awards resume is going to win BP 70-80 percent of the time. True, but generally speaking, the real corollary to Best Picture of late hasn't been Best Director (there have been more splits than not lately) but Screenplay. Every BP this decade save for The Artist and The Shape of Water have won a writing prize (and in the decade before that, 7/10 BP winners won in writing as well). The former also won an acting prize, and the latter had three acting nominations. 1917 doesn't really have a corollary in recent Academy history save for possibly Braveheart, which is a shaky corollary at best. Parasite might be the first foreign language film to make a bid for the top prize, but we've never really had a phenomenon quite like it in that respect, and it has done exceedingly well. It didn't get an acting nod, but it won SAG Ensemble and got rapturous response from it (showing a great deal of passion for it), and it beat out heavy-hitting A-list ensembles in the bargain starring the biggest names in Hollywood. And unlike 1917, it has a very strong shot of winning a writing prize. Plus it could also win Editing as well.
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Post by finniussnrub on Jan 26, 2020 18:48:58 GMT
These Parasite votes are wishful thinking. 1917 is the clear favorite, just look at the stats in the OP. SAG ensemble isn't even an overly strong BP predictor (the ensemble winner doesn't win BP a majority of the time in fact) and that's the only major win it has right now in terms of Oscar precursors. Another thing to remember is that Parasite doesn't have a single acting nomination. So I'm not sure how well that ensemble win is going to translate considering Academy voters obviously weren't as enthused about the acting as SAG voters. Well I do think 1917 is going to win at the moment, but one can Stat right back at 1917. No film has ever won without at least one acting or editing nomination. Stats are meant to be broken.
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Post by stephen on Jan 26, 2020 18:52:31 GMT
These Parasite votes are wishful thinking. 1917 is the clear favorite, just look at the stats in the OP. SAG ensemble isn't even an overly strong BP predictor (the ensemble winner doesn't win BP a majority of the time in fact) and that's the only major win it has right now in terms of Oscar precursors. Another thing to remember is that Parasite doesn't have a single acting nomination. So I'm not sure how well that ensemble win is going to translate considering Academy voters obviously weren't as enthused about the acting as SAG voters. Well I do think 1917 is going to win at the moment, but one can Stat right back at 1917. N o film has ever won without at least one acting or editing nomination. Stats are meant to be broken. Grand Hotel, but your point is taken. Either way, one or more major trend's getting bucked.
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Post by finniussnrub on Jan 26, 2020 18:56:29 GMT
Well I do think 1917 is going to win at the moment, but one can Stat right back at 1917. N o film has ever won without at least one acting or editing nomination. Stats are meant to be broken. Grand Hotel, but your point is taken. Either way, one or more major trend's getting bucked. Yeah, but there literally wasn't an editing category, so I wouldn't say that quite counts either.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 26, 2020 18:57:31 GMT
There have obviously been exceptions in the past but I don't see how a movie with a DGA/PGA and Globe Drama win can't be considered the overwhelming favorite. A movie with that awards resume is going to win BP 70-80 percent of the time. Exactly. I put in terms of "probability". When I did my Oscar nomination predictions, I only got 3 wrong in the picture, director, acting and screenplay categories. I went with probability/favorite instead of assuming there was going to be a surprise.
To me, the DGA and PGA pretty much made me switch from Once to 1917.
One thing that hasn't been mentioned is the inclusion of 1917 into the screenplay conversation. Neither the Critics Choice, Globes or BAFTAS included it in their writing list. But it made it into the Oscar line-up. That's to me is pretty important. It'll go into Oscar night with only one major non-acting nomination missing, and that was due to the lacking a variety of camera selections.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 26, 2020 19:05:25 GMT
These Parasite votes are wishful thinking. 1917 is the clear favorite, just look at the stats in the OP. SAG ensemble isn't even an overly strong BP predictor (the ensemble winner doesn't win BP a majority of the time in fact) and that's the only major win it has right now in terms of Oscar precursors. Another thing to remember is that Parasite doesn't have a single acting nomination. So I'm not sure how well that ensemble win is going to translate considering Academy voters obviously weren't as enthused about the acting as SAG voters. Well I do think 1917 is going to win at the moment, but one can Stat right back at 1917. No film has ever won without at least one acting or editing nomination. Stats are meant to be broken. You're correct here. You should never go purely by stat history. I mean, when you go stat crazy, you start to make the oddest connections.
No foreign language film has ever won Best Picture. That's a 91 year history. In the past, we said the same thing about horror movies or fantasy movies. You could even talk about Midnight Cowboy being a rated X movie and how that was historic.
The most important stats are did it win the PGA, DGA or WGA and will it win any above the line awards.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 26, 2020 20:03:40 GMT
What Parasite has is the passion vote and it's the biggest threat to 1917. You can't just always quote stats - they are broken all the time. I think the race for Picture and Director will be close. And if 1917 prevails, I can still see Parasite getting Original Screenplay so it will have an above the line win, in addition to International Film. Tarantino has already won it twice, and OUATIH will be getting Supporting Actor. I would place it 1917, Once and then Parasite. I am not sure if I understand the "passion vote" comment. 1917 won the PGA and DGA, and won the most Guild awards this Oscar season. It won the Globe for Drama and director. You would think that would be the "passion vote".
I see no reason why the best director race will be "close". Mendes won the DGA, along with the globe and critics choice.
Tarantino has won twice, but so what? They didn't stop Walter Brennan, John Ford, Frank Capra, Daniel Day-Lewis, Woody Allen or Clint Eastwood.
And as I have said before, Parasite wins the WGA and the BAFTA, there's a good shot, it'll be one of those late breakers. My sense is the biggest threat to 1917 is Once Upon a Time, due to it being favored to win Best Supporting Actor and Best Original Screenplay, and a tribute to Hollywood itself.
Last year, you also insisted that Regina King wasn't going to win and that she will suffer the same fate as Sylvester Stallone. You said Rachel Wesiz had the BAFTA stat (even though she barely won anything else - and would have split votes with Emma Stone).
And I said that King is way more respected in the industry than Stallone and that the oddsmakers continue to have her as the front runner despite no SAG or BAFTA. They said sometimes you have to look beyond the stats - that King was beloved in the industry - in a way Glenn Close wasn't.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 26, 2020 20:16:49 GMT
I would place it 1917, Once and then Parasite. I am not sure if I understand the "passion vote" comment. 1917 won the PGA and DGA, and won the most Guild awards this Oscar season. It won the Globe for Drama and director. You would think that would be the "passion vote".
I see no reason why the best director race will be "close". Mendes won the DGA, along with the globe and critics choice.
Tarantino has won twice, but so what? They didn't stop Walter Brennan, John Ford, Frank Capra, Daniel Day-Lewis, Woody Allen or Clint Eastwood.
And as I have said before, Parasite wins the WGA and the BAFTA, there's a good shot, it'll be one of those late breakers. My sense is the biggest threat to 1917 is Once Upon a Time, due to it being favored to win Best Supporting Actor and Best Original Screenplay, and a tribute to Hollywood itself.
Last year, you also insisted that Regina King wasn't going to win and that she will suffer the same fate as Sylvester Stallone. You said Rachel Wesiz had the BAFTA stat (even though she barely won anything else - and would have split votes with Emma Stone).
And I said that King is way more respected in the industry than Stallone and that the oddsmakers continue to have her as the front runner despite no SAG or BAFTA. They said sometimes you have to look beyond the stats - that King was beloved in the industry - in a way Glenn Close wasn't.
Bringing last year up. I switched to King in my Gold Derby and Awards Daily picks, because she won the Globe and Critics Choice. You want to respond to how Parasite has "passion" other than internet favoritism. Winning the SAG and ACE is hardly a sign of "passion".
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Post by stephen on Jan 26, 2020 20:27:20 GMT
Last year, you also insisted that Regina King wasn't going to win and that she will suffer the same fate as Sylvester Stallone. You said Rachel Wesiz had the BAFTA stat (even though she barely won anything else - and would have split votes with Emma Stone).
And I said that King is way more respected in the industry than Stallone and that the oddsmakers continue to have her as the front runner despite no SAG or BAFTA. They said sometimes you have to look beyond the stats - that King was beloved in the industry - in a way Glenn Close wasn't.
Bringing last year up. I switched to King in my Gold Derby and Awards Daily picks, because she won the Globe and Critics Choice. You want to respond to how Parasite has "passion" other than internet favoritism. Winning the SAG and ACE is hardly a sign of "passion". It's a sign of guild support, in a way that favors a movie that comes with the baggage of being a foreign language winner. Yes, it didn't have to contend with 1917 in those categories . . . but it shows remarkable support for being able to beat out major movies from industry favorites like Scorsese and Tarantino. And the word of mouth around it from audiences is insane, and in that respect it beats the likes of Roma (which had critical prestige but didn't have the audience love factor that this film does). Stats-wise, 1917's in the lead . . . but it's not a done deal. Upsets happen all the time.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Jan 26, 2020 21:03:10 GMT
The best thing Parasite has going for it is that it's probably winning the Screenplay oscar. That's usually the key to winning Best Picture this decade. Only 2 exceptions: The Artist (a silent film that was never going to win Screenplay) and The Shape of Water.
And both The Artist and The Shape of Water had something 1917 does not: visible acting support. The Artist won 1 acting Oscar and was nominated for another. Shape of Water had 3 acting noms. 1917 was completely absent at SAG and got no acting support anywhere.
Race feels pretty damn tight to me.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 26, 2020 21:07:02 GMT
On paper, Roma's chances last year were much much better than Parasite's this year. Yeah upsets can happen but its window of opportunity seems to be getting smaller and smaller. I think Parasite gets FLF and either screenplay or director, but I could also see it walk away with FLF and nothing else.
As much as I'd love seeing Bong break that foreign language ceiling... I'm not seeing it this year. And if Roma and Parasite can't do it, who the hell can? Foreign language films have never won BP before and only 12 have been nominated (compared to a whopping 31 directing nominations for foreign films, not to mention all the screenplay nods). These statistics feel insurmountable. And yeah, someday that might change and every year is different but that's like saying someday there will have been 100 acting nominations for Asian women. Yeah, sure... Someday.
The stats are literally depressing for foreign language films. They rarely get traction in BP and yet have collectively over a 100 nods for directing and screenplay which are the two most significant above-the-line categories behind BP, and that's not even to mention acting. That's no coincidence.
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Post by mrimpossible on Jan 26, 2020 21:22:44 GMT
I think Parasite will win. Picture, Original Screenplay and Foreign Language Film. So 3 Oscars which is what's been typical for the past 10 or so years.
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Post by stephen on Jan 26, 2020 21:24:40 GMT
I think Parasite will win. Picture, Original Screenplay and Foreign Language Film. So 3 Oscars which is what's been typical for the past 10 or so years. I wouldn't count it out for Editing, either.
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