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Post by HELENA MARIA on Jan 8, 2020 21:39:05 GMT
Just like Glenn Close last year ? She was set to win (ok , she didn't win that Bafta but a lot of people were absolutely positive that she would still win : won the GG+ SAG+ CCA+Indie awards ) but they went for another contender in the end.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Jan 8, 2020 21:47:49 GMT
No. Actors are fanatical about his performance in this. And this probably extends to the industry as a whole. Nobody cared about The Wife.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 8, 2020 22:11:36 GMT
No. Actors are fanatical about his performance in this. And this probably extends to the industry as a whole. Nobody cared about The Wife. Yeah, technically the first choice "anything could happen", is true, but assuming he wins everything else, I'm not sure why he'd lose unless maybe something bad came out, but even then depending on what it was, he'd probably still win similar to when Affleck won a few years back, because there's so much love for him and his performance. Also agree that this is definitely different than Glenn Close's situation. She almost won just on her narrative alone, but The Wife was basically a no one cares movie outside of her performance. It couldn't get traction anywhere else even for Pryce at BAFTA. Even Leo and Kate won their overdue Oscars for films that were nominated for Best Picture and were stronger than their competitors similar to Phoenix's situation albeit he probably faces tougher competition than they both did, although he'll easily win in the end like they did. Even Julianne Moore and Christopher Plummer who were both lone nominees had critics support certainly more than Close got. I think she only won New Mexico and San Diego, and she wasn't a factor at all in the top tier critics awards like Moore and Plummer were. Plus, Moore and Plummer had very fortunate timing that their fellow nominees weren't that strong unlike Close who was up against a beloved Brit whose film tied for the most nominations, and who had won a bulk of the critics awards including the top two critics awards, and Best Actress was one of the easiest places to award The Favourite with an above the line Oscar.
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Post by quetee on Jan 8, 2020 23:06:27 GMT
Glenn Close was in a movie that nobody watched so. ..
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Post by Allenism on Jan 9, 2020 0:29:46 GMT
Glenn Close was in a movie that nobody watched so. .. People have won for shit films that nobody watched in the past, e.g., Lange in Blue Sky.
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Post by stephen on Jan 9, 2020 0:42:11 GMT
I think the only thing that can stop Joaquin at this rate is Joaquin himself.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 9, 2020 1:01:27 GMT
anything is possible but no, probably not
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Jan 9, 2020 1:45:01 GMT
Glenn Close was in a movie that nobody watched so. .. I believe Jessica Lange won her 2nd Oscar for a movie almost nobody saw. Marcia Gay Harden also won an Oscar for a small indie film. Glenn losing that Oscar was quite shocking because she also had that "long overdue" factor.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 9, 2020 1:51:10 GMT
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 9, 2020 6:36:12 GMT
Well, anything can happen. They have screwed too many people at the last minute.
But I believe he'll win this time.
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Post by jasonjoliepitt on Jan 9, 2020 6:53:50 GMT
People have won for shit films that nobody watched in the past, e.g., Lange in Blue Sky. Or Still, Alice Still Alice is far from a shit film. Moron.
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Post by quetee on Jan 9, 2020 22:07:15 GMT
Glenn Close was in a movie that nobody watched so. .. I believe Jessica Lange won her 2nd Oscar for a movie almost nobody saw. Marcia Gay Harden also won an Oscar for a small indie film. Glenn losing that Oscar was quite shocking because she also had that "long overdue" factor. okay. I guess better to say Jessica won it when she was still Jessica and with her peers.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 9, 2020 22:31:56 GMT
I believe Jessica Lange won her 2nd Oscar for a movie almost nobody saw. Marcia Gay Harden also won an Oscar for a small indie film. Glenn losing that Oscar was quite shocking because she also had that "long overdue" factor. okay. I guess better to say Jessica won it when she was still Jessica and with her peers. Yes, every year is different. There was a feeling that Lange only won Supporting Actress for Tootsie as a consolation prize because everyone knew Streep was going to win for Sophie's Choice, and it became even louder by 1994 since Lange had been nominated 3 times in leading after her win. Also I want to say again Lange and also Moore had very little competition. Foster had already won twice. Sarandon was a lone nominee. Ryder was the only above the line nomination for her film. Richardson was also nominated with her costar Rosemary Harris, but Tom & Viv barely got any awards traction outside of Richardson and Harris. I didn't follow who was more likely to win other than watching Siskel and Ebert's annual Oscar show although I forget if I watched in 1994, and reading Entertainment Weekly and Premiere, but I think the big story was how the best leading actress performance wasn't even nominated because The Last Seduction was disqualified for being shown on HBO before it was released in theaters. I also don't know what happened to Jennifer Jason Leigh either. She won NSFC, but for some reason AMPAS never warmed up to her until much later on in her career. I don't know if it's because she was too indie, or maybe something to do with her father's death in some way. I don't know, but she got a lot of attention for her two supporting turns in Miami Blues and Last Exit to Brooklyn but missed out in the end. Then, she got attention again in Altman's Short Cuts, but was passed over. Then came Mrs. Parker and the Vicious Circle, but she couldn't even get a nomination in a weak year despite critics attention and a Globe nomination. She does the more Oscar friendly Dolores Claiborne, but AMPAS doesn't bite at all. Then Georgia happens, but her costar gets nominated instead of her. Anyhow I think Ryder was probably seen as too young and someone that would win later on for a more popular film. Sarandon was becoming "overdue", but again I think similar to Ryder they wanted her to win for a better/more popular film which she arguably would a year later. So that left Lange who was also helped by the fact that Blue Sky wasn't released for like two years because Orion went bankrupt, and also because it was the last film that Tony Richardson directed, and of the feeling that she she should have a leading Oscar. She also won LAFCA and placed second at NSFC.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2020 2:33:32 GMT
Glenn Close was in a movie that nobody watched so. .. This is such an ignorant thing to say and you've said it repeatedly. Yes, people saw the film - it was an arthouse hit and stayed in theaters for months after its initial release.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2020 2:46:26 GMT
I believe Jessica Lange won her 2nd Oscar for a movie almost nobody saw. Marcia Gay Harden also won an Oscar for a small indie film. Glenn losing that Oscar was quite shocking because she also had that "long overdue" factor. okay. I guess better to say Jessica won it when she was still Jessica and with her peers. What does this mean, exactly? To be ageist is to be self-loathing - we all grow old.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 10, 2020 3:01:07 GMT
Glenn Close was in a movie that nobody watched so. .. This is such an ignorant thing to say and you've said it repeatedly. Yes, people saw the film - it was an arthouse hit and stayed in theaters for months after its initial release. Still, pretty much no one has seen it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2020 3:11:06 GMT
This is such an ignorant thing to say and you've said it repeatedly. Yes, people saw the film - it was an arthouse hit and stayed in theaters for months after its initial release. Still, pretty much no one has seen it. I guess no one has seen The Trip to Bountiful, Blue Sky, or Still Alice, either.
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rhodoraonline
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Post by rhodoraonline on Jan 10, 2020 3:40:20 GMT
I think the only thing that can stop Joaquin at this rate is Joaquin himself. Joaquin is not as deranged, creep, weirdo etc as sometimes the impression when I hear people discuss his case. His quirkiness is only gonna endear him even more when added to his enormous, revered talent, especially when his authenticity and his own reverence for his colleagues stands out as much as his quirkiness. So. No. Even Joaquin is not gonna stop Joaquin now. 🤗 It's kinda like the Christian Bale thing in 2011.
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erickeitel
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Post by erickeitel on Jan 10, 2020 4:16:31 GMT
I wouldn't say "anything can happen" but I would not rule out Edgerton just yet. He's Phoenix's only competition after all, the movie was a hit, and if Elton John's the frontrunner for Original Song, that might work for Edgerton's chances too. Even if Joker is the most-nominated movie at BAFTA, Edgerton is playing a national treasure of theirs, plus he's hit all the televisied precursors.
But I'm still predicting Phoenix, as I have since September.
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Post by quetee on Jan 10, 2020 4:23:34 GMT
okay. I guess better to say Jessica won it when she was still Jessica and with her peers. What does this mean, exactly? To be ageist is to be self-loathing - we all grow old. I wasn't talking about her age. I was talking about her relevancy and when she was a huge star. Viola Davis became Viola later in life. Glenn was a huge star in the 80's and 90's and that was the perfect time for her to win cause that was during her peers.
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erickeitel
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Post by erickeitel on Jan 10, 2020 5:06:45 GMT
Re: Glenn Close and Julianne Moore, I think you have to evaluate stuff like this on a case-by-case basis.
Julianne Moore had won Best Actress at Cannes for Maps to the Stars which gave her a triple crown of festival acting, the second woman and fourth actor overall to do so overall (and still the most recent to this day). She was double nodded at the Globes and was up against only one woman in a Best Picture nod (Felicity Jones, and The Theory of Everything was not popular enough to win both lead Oscars.) In the age of BP expansion, it's quite rare for any acting category to have only *one* acting nod that's also up for Best Picture.
Whereas Glenn Close was The Wife’s only nod, which did not come remotely close in any other category for a nomination. The Favourite had TEN Oscar nods which showed multiple branch support, plus crucial wins in Globes and BAFTA.
(I’m not sure what Close, Moore and Lange have to do with this year's Actor race, but I thought I'd offer my two cents regardless.)
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Post by MsMovieStar on Jan 10, 2020 5:13:37 GMT
Oh honey, I've been screwed by the Academy many a time... Err, what were we talking about?
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 10, 2020 14:21:58 GMT
Still, pretty much no one has seen it. I guess no one has seen The Trip to Bountiful, Blue Sky, or Still Alice, either. Well Still Alice made twice as much as The Wife at least. But yeah, occasionally someone wins an Oscar from a movie that pretty much no one has seen.
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erickeitel
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Post by erickeitel on Jan 10, 2020 14:41:22 GMT
Oh honey, I've been screwed by the Academy many a time... Err, what were we talking about? You should screw the Globes instead. Less people to blow, y’know?
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Post by MsMovieStar on Jan 10, 2020 15:42:58 GMT
Oh honey, I've been screwed by the Academy many a time... Err, what were we talking about? You should screw the Globes instead. Less people to blow, y’know? Oh honey, I have an assistant for that....
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