Lupita Nyong'o: Oscar nom or not

She’s definitely still in the conversation. It’s possible, but she would most likely be in the fifth spot.

I think she has a real shot - she's not on my list atm but on the bubble - and I'm thinking it actually may be at Awkwafina's expense (the irony!) if she gets that nod - that movie wasn't good but her performance was imo and I would say as ferociously OTT and actor-y as any I've seen this year .......I mean you could almost laugh at how hard she's trying in that role (or why she is bothering even actually - it's ripe for parody).

Never doubt a former winner who campaigns - especially in a very white skinned seeming category this year ........although tbh I still do not understand why Octavia Spencer who is in a very similar position to her and it seems is shut out of the discussion for an even weaker category this year for Luce ......that seems a bit baffling to me.

Not to me in BA - the 4 leading contenders are all quite white ScarJo, Zellwegger, Ronan, Theron......not saying they are in, but likely to me and dominating the conversation too. There is not room imo for any combination of Nyong'o, Woodard, Erivo and Awkwafina who I have 5th......particularly because all 3 of those will be their films only nominees.

To me it's Awkwafina who is vulnerable.......

Why though? She's playing an iconic character in the most female-centered BP contender of the year which is getting absolute raves left and right and comes right after another super successful Gerwig/Ronan collaboration. It's like a perfect storm for a Ronan nomination - and we all know that the Academy does like her quite a bit. I think she's comfortably ahead of the three you mentioned. To be fair, I've had her as a lock for a nomination as soon as the movie was announced though

Ronan is getting plenty of raves as well. And the well-worn argument doesn't seem to cut it when we've just had A Star is Born be such a success. Now this new version of Little Women is getting total raves too, and in this feminist day and age a new adaptation of this particular book won't suffer any of these 'it's been done before' troubles at all imo!

Well, Toni couldn't score a nod in a much weaker field. The only thing Lupita has going for her is that she was in a movie that people actually saw. 

I was walking to work the other day and I saw an FYC ad on a bus for her so Universal is pushing her for a nod. 

I certainly hope so. I haven’t seen any of the front runners yet but I’d be shocked if I came across 5 better lead actress performances than hers.

Malheureusement non, mon cher ami.

Correct me if I am wrong but HEREDITARY was a huge hit too and the highest grossing movie financed by A24.

People are still making that easy mistake to compare this year to previous years but again, the key to me is if she takes Awkwafina's spot (I do think Ronan is in and most people think so too - there's a pretty big drop off in Oscar betting odds between the 4th person - Ronan and the 5th Awkwafina).

Awkwafina doesn't have to deal with a genre bias like Nyong'o but has a bigger racial bias (I think there's 1 Asian nominated in BA ever and that may have been mixed race - Merle Oberon I think? Plus Awkwafina is giving a gentle, measured performance, Nyong'o was practically convulsing and having a hysterical seizure at times. - Although again a sole nomination is a problem for Nyong'o.

Difficult, not impossible.......

Those are my top 4 too. I know the optics of it are bad. It's not that there's no worthy POCs actors in contention this year, it's just that either they're in very small films, or even if they're in higher profile well received films like the cast of The Farewell and Parasite, they have the Academy's bias against Asian actors working against them, or higher profile films like Harriet and I guess Just Mercy, it seems like the direction and/or writing let the actors down. 

Locked:
Zellweger - Playing a beloved film icon. Some don't think she was that great or the movie was which I get, but critics really rallied behind her early on for some reason. Comeback narrative. Cons: I think a lock for the nomination, the win is still up in the air until the televised awards clear things up. 

Likely: 
Johansson - Has two strong movies movies in contention where she's been singled out for her performances and was in the biggest money maker of the year. Never been nominated before. Cons: Has a tendency to put her foot in her mouth like she just did for Vanity Fair. It probably won't matter with voters, but with critics groups that could have helped her be a strong alternative to Zellweger if she would have swept or at least won one or two big ones, it could.  

Ronan - Feels very much like the Winslet of her generation in that she'll keep racking up nominations until like her fifth one when they finally award her. I was worried early on about how well another Little Women adaptation would really be received, but early reviews are fantastic so far. Cons: Admittedly I think Pugh has been singled out more, but it's not like Ronan hasn't been singled out in many either. 

Theron - I thought who she was playing might work against her if Bombshell wasn't that well received, but it seems like it should do okay not good enough to be securely nominated for BP, but possible as a low level BP nominee, albeit it is a stronger field than last year, so I'm guessing it misses. So far Theron has been consistently praised, and she has the transformation factor working for her. Cons: On the other hand, Bombshell screeners are still not out yet at SAG, so if she misses there, she can still win the Oscar like King did last year, but this doesn't seem like a fractured race so far. I think whoever wins the Globe is probably just sweeping in this category this year. 

Seemed like something SAG would love after their merger with television and radio personalities, but screeners haven't even been sent out yet. 

Maybe: 
Erivo - I think with the A+ CinemaScore and box office success of Harriet she should show up at all the televised precursors now, but with Oscar depending on #1 votes, I could see Nyong'o or Woodard having more passion. 

Awkwafina - Has the strongest film in contention out of the maybes, but unfortunately AMPAS has a very bad track record with Asian WOC. Of course it's not the same makeup of voters as it was tens years ago or so, but Zhang Ziyi made all the precursors for Memoirs of a Geisha, except BFCA, and still couldn't make it in. 

Nyong'o - Could win at least one big critics award and could get in at SAG especially since Us was an early screener, but I think genre bias will keep her from being nominated for the Oscar. Us made a lot of money, but there wasn't as much passion/buzz for it once it opened like there was for Get Out which managed to maintain buzz for almost a whole year. 

Woodard - I think the critics could rally behind her, but her movie is so small especially since Parasite is obviously Neon's main awards focus and only got good but not fantastic reviews. However, she has been in the industry a long time and is very well respected. 

No Chance:
Wu - Hustlers was a huge hit, but all the praise for the acting was for Lopez's performance. 

Turner-Smith - If Universal had released Queen & Slim earlier, I think she would have had a much better chance, but unfortunately I think the other late breaking films overshadowed the release of it, and a for a newcomer like Turner-Smith she really needed it to be a mega hit, or to have built up enough momentum to carry her to a nomination. 

Jones: She probably would have missed even if Amazon had given it a wide theatrical release like they originally planned just because I think the year turned out to have more contenders than I thought, and The Aeronauts seems liked not particularly loved, but she and Redmayne probably would have picked up some kind of nominations along the way and some of the technical work would probably have been nominated by AMPAS this year which would have made more people aware of it. As it is now, I can't see many Amazon Prime subscribers caring enough to seek this out unless they're fans of the actors and know about it that way. Still don't know what Amazon was thinking with the way they handled this and The Report.