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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2019 11:43:17 GMT
She received rave reviews for her performance, and she's currently blitzing the campaign trail, hard. She has the genre bias against her, but massive box office and a weak field could potentially sidestep this problem, right?
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Post by TerryMontana on Nov 26, 2019 11:47:56 GMT
Not very likely imo.
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Post by doddgerhardt on Nov 26, 2019 11:50:33 GMT
She’s definitely still in the conversation. It’s possible, but she would most likely be in the fifth spot.
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Post by thomasjerome on Nov 26, 2019 11:52:38 GMT
Currently I don't predict her (Awkwafina, ScarJo, Renee, Charlize, Ronan) but I don't think it's out of question. The field is still kind of weak and if she wins a major critics award and get the right kind of push, she may sneak in.
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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 26, 2019 11:58:04 GMT
I think she has a real shot - she's not on my list atm but on the bubble - and I'm thinking it actually may be at Awkwafina's expense (the irony!) if she gets that nod - that movie wasn't good but her performance was imo and I would say as ferociously OTT and actor-y as any I've seen this year .......I mean you could almost laugh at how hard she's trying in that role (or why she is bothering even actually - it's ripe for parody).
Never doubt a former winner who campaigns - especially in a very white skinned seeming category this year ........although tbh I still do not understand why Octavia Spencer who is in a very similar position to her and it seems is shut out of the discussion for an even weaker category this year for Luce ......that seems a bit baffling to me.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2019 12:13:03 GMT
Never doubt a former winner who campaigns - especially in a very white skinned seeming category this year ........although tbh I still do not understand why Octavia Spencer who is in a very similar position to her and it seems is shut out of the discussion for an even weaker category this year for Luce ......that seems a bit baffling to me. Really? Awkwafina, Cynthia Erivo, Lupita Nyong'o, and Alfre Woodard all seem like distinct possibilities, and then there's Jodie Turner Smith and Constance Wu on the outside looking in... Hong Chau just received an Independent Spirit nomination - there seem to be more women of color in conversation for Best Actress than I can ever remember.
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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 26, 2019 12:33:18 GMT
Never doubt a former winner who campaigns - especially in a very white skinned seeming category this year ........although tbh I still do not understand why Octavia Spencer who is in a very similar position to her and it seems is shut out of the discussion for an even weaker category this year for Luce ......that seems a bit baffling to me. Really? Awkwafina, Cynthia Erivo, Lupita Nyong'o, and Alfre Woodard all seem like distinct possibilities, and then there's Jodie Turner Smith and Constance Wu on the outside looking in... Hong Chau just received an Independent Spirit nomination - there seem to be more women of color in conversation for Best Actress than I can ever remember. Not to me in BA - the 4 leading contenders are all quite white ScarJo, Zellwegger, Ronan, Theron......not saying they are in, but likely to me and dominating the conversation too. There is not room imo for any combination of Nyong'o, Woodard, Erivo and Awkwafina who I have 5th......particularly because all 3 of those will be their films only nominees. To me it's Awkwafina who is vulnerable.......
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2019 13:52:25 GMT
Really? Awkwafina, Cynthia Erivo, Lupita Nyong'o, and Alfre Woodard all seem like distinct possibilities, and then there's Jodie Turner Smith and Constance Wu on the outside looking in... Hong Chau just received an Independent Spirit nomination - there seem to be more women of color in conversation for Best Actress than I can ever remember. Not to me in BA - the 4 leading contenders are all quite white ScarJo, Zellwegger, Ronan, Theron......not saying they are in, but likely to me and dominating the conversation too. There is not room imo for any combination of Nyong'o, Woodard, Erivo and Awkwafina who I have 5th......particularly because all 3 of those will be their films only nominees. To me it's Awkwafina who is vulnerable....... I guess it comes down to how you personally perceive the race. I don't see Ronan as being ahead of Awkwafina, Erivo, or Nyong'o.
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Post by JangoB on Nov 26, 2019 14:36:29 GMT
Not to me in BA - the 4 leading contenders are all quite white ScarJo, Zellwegger, Ronan, Theron......not saying they are in, but likely to me and dominating the conversation too. There is not room imo for any combination of Nyong'o, Woodard, Erivo and Awkwafina who I have 5th......particularly because all 3 of those will be their films only nominees. To me it's Awkwafina who is vulnerable....... I guess it comes down to how you personally perceive the race. I don't see Ronan as being ahead of Awkwafina, Erivo, or Nyong'o. Why though? She's playing an iconic character in the most female-centered BP contender of the year which is getting absolute raves left and right and comes right after another super successful Gerwig/Ronan collaboration. It's like a perfect storm for a Ronan nomination - and we all know that the Academy does like her quite a bit. I think she's comfortably ahead of the three you mentioned. To be fair, I've had her as a lock for a nomination as soon as the movie was announced though
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2019 14:49:48 GMT
I guess it comes down to how you personally perceive the race. I don't see Ronan as being ahead of Awkwafina, Erivo, or Nyong'o. Why though? She's playing an iconic character in the most female-centered BP contender of the year which is getting absolute raves left and right and comes right after another super successful Gerwig/Ronan collaboration. It's like a perfect storm for a Ronan nomination - and we all know that the Academy does like her quite a bit. I think she's comfortably ahead of the three you mentioned. To be fair, I've had her as a lock for a nomination as soon as the movie was announced though She'd be the youngest person ever to 4 nominations (even younger than Lawrence) and the character is a classic, yes, but also really well-worn - this role has already been played to perfection by both Katharine Hepburn and Winona Ryder. I'm worried about the "been there, done that" factor that wasn't really present when Knightley was nominated for Pride & Prejudice, just for example. Also, it's my understanding (having not seen the film) that the focus has been more heavily shifted toward the character of Amy and Florence Pugh, who takes it and runs with it.
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Post by JangoB on Nov 26, 2019 15:10:17 GMT
Why though? She's playing an iconic character in the most female-centered BP contender of the year which is getting absolute raves left and right and comes right after another super successful Gerwig/Ronan collaboration. It's like a perfect storm for a Ronan nomination - and we all know that the Academy does like her quite a bit. I think she's comfortably ahead of the three you mentioned. To be fair, I've had her as a lock for a nomination as soon as the movie was announced though She'd be the youngest person ever to 4 nominations (even younger than Lawrence) and the character is a classic, yes, but also really well-worn - this role has already been played to perfection by both Katharine Hepburn and Winona Ryder. I'm worried about the "been there, done that" factor that wasn't really present when Knightley was nominated for Pride & Prejudice, just for example. Also, it's my understanding (having not seen the film) that the focus has been more heavily shifted toward the character of Amy and Florence Pugh, who takes it and runs with it. Ronan is getting plenty of raves as well. And the well-worn argument doesn't seem to cut it when we've just had A Star is Born be such a success. Now this new version of Little Women is getting total raves too, and in this feminist day and age a new adaptation of this particular book won't suffer any of these 'it's been done before' troubles at all imo!
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Post by quetee on Nov 26, 2019 15:20:31 GMT
She'd be the youngest person ever to 4 nominations (even younger than Lawrence) and the character is a classic, yes, but also really well-worn - this role has already been played to perfection by both Katharine Hepburn and Winona Ryder. I'm worried about the "been there, done that" factor that wasn't really present when Knightley was nominated for Pride & Prejudice, just for example. Also, it's my understanding (having not seen the film) that the focus has been more heavily shifted toward the character of Amy and Florence Pugh, who takes it and runs with it. Ronan is getting plenty of raves as well. And the well-worn argument doesn't seem to cut it when we've just had A Star is Born be such a success. Now this new version of Little Women is getting total raves too, and in this feminist day and age a new adaptation of this particular book won't suffer any of these 'it's been done before' troubles at all imo! I don't think you can use A Star Is Born as proof that Ronan is a safe bet for Little Women. Lady Gaga showcased more than her acting ability in that role.
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Post by quetee on Nov 26, 2019 15:22:08 GMT
She received rave reviews for her performance, and she's currently blitzing the campaign trail, hard. She has the genre bias against her, but massive box office and a weak field could potentially sidestep this problem, right? Well, Toni couldn't score a nod in a much weaker field. The only thing Lupita has going for her is that she was in a movie that people actually saw. I was walking to work the other day and I saw an FYC ad on a bus for her so Universal is pushing her for a nod.
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Post by stephen on Nov 26, 2019 15:23:37 GMT
Doubtful. Her film doesn't have nearly the amount of staying power or momentum of Get Out and she's already contending with genre bias on top of it. She would need a critical sweep to challenge industry-friendly contenders.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Nov 26, 2019 15:31:28 GMT
I certainly hope so. I haven’t seen any of the front runners yet but I’d be shocked if I came across 5 better lead actress performances than hers.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2019 16:03:22 GMT
She received rave reviews for her performance, and she's currently blitzing the campaign trail, hard. She has the genre bias against her, but massive box office and a weak field could potentially sidestep this problem, right? Well, Toni couldn't score a nod in a much weaker field. The only thing Lupita has going for her is that she was in a movie that people actually saw. I was walking to work the other day and I saw an FYC ad on a bus for her so Universal is pushing her for a nod. Collette didn't really campaign, though, and she doesn't have the benefit of being a former winner. And yes, Us was a huge hit, which historically horror films have to be in order to receive Acting nominations.
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Nov 26, 2019 16:16:01 GMT
Malheureusement non, mon cher ami.
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Nov 26, 2019 16:18:02 GMT
Unfortunately I'm going to say no.
I double dog dare (and beg) the academy to prove me wrong.
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Nov 26, 2019 16:18:53 GMT
Well, Toni couldn't score a nod in a much weaker field. The only thing Lupita has going for her is that she was in a movie that people actually saw. I was walking to work the other day and I saw an FYC ad on a bus for her so Universal is pushing her for a nod. Collette didn't really campaign, though, and she doesn't have the benefit of being a former winner. And yes, Us was a huge hit, which historically horror films have to be in order to receive Acting nominations. Correct me if I am wrong but HEREDITARY was a huge hit too and the highest grossing movie financed by A24.
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Post by JangoB on Nov 26, 2019 16:29:01 GMT
Ronan is getting plenty of raves as well. And the well-worn argument doesn't seem to cut it when we've just had A Star is Born be such a success. Now this new version of Little Women is getting total raves too, and in this feminist day and age a new adaptation of this particular book won't suffer any of these 'it's been done before' troubles at all imo! I don't think you can use A Star Is Born as proof that Ronan is a safe bet for Little Women. Lady Gaga showcased more than her acting ability in that role. I'm using it as proof that the 'been-there-done-that' argument doesn't particularly convince me. If ASIB can be such an awards success despite its well worn-out nature then I don't think that Little Women (a story as timely as ever right now) will face any similar scrutiny. And as a result I don't see voters going 'oh, but this character has been portrayed before so I won't vote for her' while considering Ronan, an actress who they love so much.
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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 26, 2019 16:31:22 GMT
People are still making that easy mistake to compare this year to previous years but again, the key to me is if she takes Awkwafina's spot (I do think Ronan is in and most people think so too - there's a pretty big drop off in Oscar betting odds between the 4th person - Ronan and the 5th Awkwafina). Awkwafina doesn't have to deal with a genre bias like Nyong'o but has a bigger racial bias (I think there's 1 Asian nominated in BA ever and that may have been mixed race - Merle Oberon I think? Plus Awkwafina is giving a gentle, measured performance, Nyong'o was practically convulsing and having a hysterical seizure at times. - Although again a sole nomination is a problem for Nyong'o. Difficult, not impossible.......
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2019 18:06:05 GMT
Collette didn't really campaign, though, and she doesn't have the benefit of being a former winner. And yes, Us was a huge hit, which historically horror films have to be in order to receive Acting nominations. Correct me if I am wrong but HEREDITARY was a huge hit too and the highest grossing movie financed by A24. Yes, but I think comparing the box office success of Hereditary to that of Us is like comparing going 5 miles over the speed limit to 30 miles over.
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morton
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Post by morton on Nov 26, 2019 18:22:44 GMT
Really? Awkwafina, Cynthia Erivo, Lupita Nyong'o, and Alfre Woodard all seem like distinct possibilities, and then there's Jodie Turner Smith and Constance Wu on the outside looking in... Hong Chau just received an Independent Spirit nomination - there seem to be more women of color in conversation for Best Actress than I can ever remember. Not to me in BA - the 4 leading contenders are all quite white ScarJo, Zellwegger, Ronan, Theron......not saying they are in, but likely to me and dominating the conversation too. There is not room imo for any combination of Nyong'o, Woodard, Erivo and Awkwafina who I have 5th......particularly because all 3 of those will be their films only nominees. To me it's Awkwafina who is vulnerable....... Those are my top 4 too. I know the optics of it are bad. It's not that there's no worthy POCs actors in contention this year, it's just that either they're in very small films, or even if they're in higher profile well received films like the cast of The Farewell and Parasite, they have the Academy's bias against Asian actors working against them, or higher profile films like Harriet and I guess Just Mercy, it seems like the direction and/or writing let the actors down. Locked:Zellweger - Playing a beloved film icon. Some don't think she was that great or the movie was which I get, but critics really rallied behind her early on for some reason. Comeback narrative. Cons: I think a lock for the nomination, the win is still up in the air until the televised awards clear things up. Likely: Johansson - Has two strong movies movies in contention where she's been singled out for her performances and was in the biggest money maker of the year. Never been nominated before. Cons: Has a tendency to put her foot in her mouth like she just did for Vanity Fair. It probably won't matter with voters, but with critics groups that could have helped her be a strong alternative to Zellweger if she would have swept or at least won one or two big ones, it could. Ronan - Feels very much like the Winslet of her generation in that she'll keep racking up nominations until like her fifth one when they finally award her. I was worried early on about how well another Little Women adaptation would really be received, but early reviews are fantastic so far. Cons: Admittedly I think Pugh has been singled out more, but it's not like Ronan hasn't been singled out in many either. Theron - I thought who she was playing might work against her if Bombshell wasn't that well received, but it seems like it should do okay not good enough to be securely nominated for BP, but possible as a low level BP nominee, albeit it is a stronger field than last year, so I'm guessing it misses. So far Theron has been consistently praised, and she has the transformation factor working for her. Cons: On the other hand, Bombshell screeners are still not out yet at SAG, so if she misses there, she can still win the Oscar like King did last year, but this doesn't seem like a fractured race so far. I think whoever wins the Globe is probably just sweeping in this category this year. Seemed like something SAG would love after their merger with television and radio personalities, but screeners haven't even been sent out yet. Maybe: Erivo - I think with the A+ CinemaScore and box office success of Harriet she should show up at all the televised precursors now, but with Oscar depending on #1 votes, I could see Nyong'o or Woodard having more passion. Awkwafina - Has the strongest film in contention out of the maybes, but unfortunately AMPAS has a very bad track record with Asian WOC. Of course it's not the same makeup of voters as it was tens years ago or so, but Zhang Ziyi made all the precursors for Memoirs of a Geisha, except BFCA, and still couldn't make it in. Nyong'o - Could win at least one big critics award and could get in at SAG especially since Us was an early screener, but I think genre bias will keep her from being nominated for the Oscar. Us made a lot of money, but there wasn't as much passion/buzz for it once it opened like there was for Get Out which managed to maintain buzz for almost a whole year. Woodard - I think the critics could rally behind her, but her movie is so small especially since Parasite is obviously Neon's main awards focus and only got good but not fantastic reviews. However, she has been in the industry a long time and is very well respected. No Chance:Wu - Hustlers was a huge hit, but all the praise for the acting was for Lopez's performance. Turner-Smith - If Universal had released Queen & Slim earlier, I think she would have had a much better chance, but unfortunately I think the other late breaking films overshadowed the release of it, and a for a newcomer like Turner-Smith she really needed it to be a mega hit, or to have built up enough momentum to carry her to a nomination. Jones: She probably would have missed even if Amazon had given it a wide theatrical release like they originally planned just because I think the year turned out to have more contenders than I thought, and The Aeronauts seems liked not particularly loved, but she and Redmayne probably would have picked up some kind of nominations along the way and some of the technical work would probably have been nominated by AMPAS this year which would have made more people aware of it. As it is now, I can't see many Amazon Prime subscribers caring enough to seek this out unless they're fans of the actors and know about it that way. Still don't know what Amazon was thinking with the way they handled this and The Report.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Nov 26, 2019 19:00:56 GMT
I hope so. Nomination would be both inspired and well-deserved. But I think she needs a major critics prize and/or a SAG nom to be in contention.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 26, 2019 21:05:03 GMT
I really hope not.
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