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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 13, 2019 19:29:12 GMT
Do you guys think it is possible for hanks to get snubbed? He's not playing against type. It's possible, I personally think Pitt, Pesci and Pacino are locks - and Pesci will win a whole lot of critics awards too - that means 2 spots are left - and there's way more than 2 guys fighting for them. Dafoe, Hanks, Foxx, etc. are all guys fighting to get in without a BP nod........it's a major drawback this year.
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Post by quetee on Nov 13, 2019 19:42:10 GMT
Do you guys think it is possible for hanks to get snubbed? He's not playing against type. It's possible, I personally think Pitt, Pesci and Pacino are locks - and Pesci will win a whole lot of critics awards too - that means 2 spots are left - and there's way more than 2 guys fighting for them. Dafoe, Hanks, Foxx, etc. are all guys fighting to get in without a BP nod........it's a major drawback this year. he's been mia for 20 years so there's something about his performances they dont seem to like. It has to be he's playing it too safe.
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morton
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Post by morton on Nov 13, 2019 19:44:16 GMT
Do you guys think it is possible for hanks to get snubbed? He's not playing against type. I think it is. I felt that way earlier in the year when there was a lot of buzz about ABDITN because of early screenings because Mr. Rogers just felt like the most Tom Hanks role ever, but once people were allowed to actually write about it after it premiered at TIFF, people were talking about how he was the favorite to win. I had doubts that he could actually win a third Oscar for playing Mr. Rogers, but I figured he was safe. Then ABDITN didn't place at TIFF, and worse yet for Hanks, The Irishman turned out to be excellent and both Pacino and Pesci emerged as nominees, and even worse for Hanks, imo, Pacino, became the challenger to Pitt instead of Hanks. I really think he can miss. I think it helps that the film should do extremely well over the holidays and be a great crowd pleaser, but I feel like it's now Sony's third priority because it doesn't have as high of a ceiling as OUATIH or Little Women which hurts Hanks. Plus, I feel like Jojo Rabbit is also going for the crowd pleaser slot and did win TIFF, and there's also Ford v Ferrari, The Two Popes, and Dolemite Is My Name which I've also read being described as crowd pleasers in some way. Then there's the campaigning by most everyone else right now. I don't feel like Hanks is doing a lot at this time, but even when he has campaigned, I think it was for either Sully or The Post, he was still passed over, so maybe he's over it now. Pitt has been out there. Pacino is out there, and I think that any boost for The Irishman is also a boost for Pesci who isn't going to campaign but seems like he'll be a passion pick. Plus he has the comeback factor. LaBeouf also has the comeback factor albeit he's made more enemies along the way than Pesci probably has, but both of LaBeouf's films seem like they'll do well commercially. Dafoe and Foxx are definitely out there everywhere. Chalamet and Lithgow have been out there; although right now it's more about promoting their films, but still they have visibility right before voting starts. Alda and Liotta probably don't have a chance, but either one or both usually shows up at the many promotional events that Marriage Story has had in the past few months. Plus Alda is lovable like Hanks. Finally, Sam Rockwell has both Jojo Rabbit and Richard Jewell, and just came off the success of Fosse/Verdon.
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Post by mattfincher on Nov 13, 2019 19:58:26 GMT
Do you guys think it is possible for hanks to get snubbed? He's not playing against type. It's possible, I personally think Pitt, Pesci and Pacino are locks - and Pesci will win a whole lot of critics awards too - that means 2 spots are left - and there's way more than 2 guys fighting for them. Dafoe, Hanks, Foxx, etc. are all guys fighting to get in without a BP nod........it's a major drawback this year. I have strong belief in Pesci and agree he will factor well into critics awards, but you simply can’t call two actors from the same film locks in this category given how sparingly it’s happened and how competitive it is this year. There’s also The Departed as precedent for Scorsese not pulling such a feat off.
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Post by quetee on Nov 13, 2019 20:17:56 GMT
Do you guys think it is possible for hanks to get snubbed? He's not playing against type. I think it is. I felt that way earlier in the year when there was a lot of buzz about ABDITN because of early screenings because Mr. Rogers just felt like the most Tom Hanks role ever, but once people were allowed to actually write about it after it premiered at TIFF, people were talking about how he was the favorite to win. I had doubts that he could actually win a third Oscar for playing Mr. Rogers, but I figured he was safe. Then ABDITN didn't place at TIFF, and worse yet for Hanks, The Irishman turned out to be excellent and both Pacino and Pesci emerged as nominees, and even worse for Hanks, imo, Pacino, became the challenger to Pitt instead of Hanks. I really think he can miss. I think it helps that the film should do extremely well over the holidays and be a great crowd pleaser, but I feel like it's now Sony's third priority because it doesn't have as high of a ceiling as OUATIH or Little Women which hurts Hanks. Plus, I feel like Jojo Rabbit is also going for the crowd pleaser slot and did win TIFF, and there's also Ford v Ferrari, The Two Popes, and Dolemite Is My Name which I've also read being described as crowd pleasers in some way. Then there's the campaigning by most everyone else right now. I don't feel like Hanks is doing a lot at this time, but even when he has campaigned, I think it was for either Sully or The Post, he was still passed over, so maybe he's over it now. Pitt has been out there. Pacino is out there, and I think that any boost for The Irishman is also a boost for Pesci who isn't going to campaign but seems like he'll be a passion pick. Plus he has the comeback factor. LaBeouf also has the comeback factor albeit he's made more enemies along the way than Pesci probably has, but both of LaBeouf's films seem like they'll do well commercially. Dafoe and Foxx are definitely out there everywhere. Chalamet and Lithgow have been out there; although right now it's more about promoting their films, but still they have visibility right before voting starts. Alda and Liotta probably don't have a chance, but either one or both usually shows up at the many promotional events that Marriage Story has had in the past few months. Plus Alda is lovable like Hanks. Finally, Sam Rockwell has both Jojo Rabbit and Richard Jewell, and just came off the success of Fosse/Verdon. a beautiful day not placing top 3 at tiff was beyond shocking.
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Post by mattfincher on Nov 13, 2019 20:32:28 GMT
I think it is. I felt that way earlier in the year when there was a lot of buzz about ABDITN because of early screenings because Mr. Rogers just felt like the most Tom Hanks role ever, but once people were allowed to actually write about it after it premiered at TIFF, people were talking about how he was the favorite to win. I had doubts that he could actually win a third Oscar for playing Mr. Rogers, but I figured he was safe. Then ABDITN didn't place at TIFF, and worse yet for Hanks, The Irishman turned out to be excellent and both Pacino and Pesci emerged as nominees, and even worse for Hanks, imo, Pacino, became the challenger to Pitt instead of Hanks. I really think he can miss. I think it helps that the film should do extremely well over the holidays and be a great crowd pleaser, but I feel like it's now Sony's third priority because it doesn't have as high of a ceiling as OUATIH or Little Women which hurts Hanks. Plus, I feel like Jojo Rabbit is also going for the crowd pleaser slot and did win TIFF, and there's also Ford v Ferrari, The Two Popes, and Dolemite Is My Name which I've also read being described as crowd pleasers in some way. Then there's the campaigning by most everyone else right now. I don't feel like Hanks is doing a lot at this time, but even when he has campaigned, I think it was for either Sully or The Post, he was still passed over, so maybe he's over it now. Pitt has been out there. Pacino is out there, and I think that any boost for The Irishman is also a boost for Pesci who isn't going to campaign but seems like he'll be a passion pick. Plus he has the comeback factor. LaBeouf also has the comeback factor albeit he's made more enemies along the way than Pesci probably has, but both of LaBeouf's films seem like they'll do well commercially. Dafoe and Foxx are definitely out there everywhere. Chalamet and Lithgow have been out there; although right now it's more about promoting their films, but still they have visibility right before voting starts. Alda and Liotta probably don't have a chance, but either one or both usually shows up at the many promotional events that Marriage Story has had in the past few months. Plus Alda is lovable like Hanks. Finally, Sam Rockwell has both Jojo Rabbit and Richard Jewell, and just came off the success of Fosse/Verdon. a beautiful day not placing top 3 at tiff was beyond shocking. It's not if you've seen the movie. It's more peculiar than most think it is and it's being marketed as. I still think Hanks is in, but if his film isn't a Best Picture nom, and that's certainly becoming at least in question, he's going to be vulnerable. Right now I think it's Pacino and Pitt on one tier and everybody else on another.
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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 13, 2019 20:33:29 GMT
It's possible, I personally think Pitt, Pesci and Pacino are locks - and Pesci will win a whole lot of critics awards too - that means 2 spots are left - and there's way more than 2 guys fighting for them. Dafoe, Hanks, Foxx, etc. are all guys fighting to get in without a BP nod........it's a major drawback this year. I have strong belief in Pesci and agree he will factor well into critics awards, but you simply can’t call two actors from the same film locks in this category given how sparingly it’s happened and how competitive it is this year. There’s also The Departed as precedent for Scorsese not pulling such a feat off. I'm just saying having seen The Irishman I cant imagine any of them being left out and you know, that's the way this predicting thing works at this stage - go big or go home See below, I've already busted your balls on that (Marriage Story - nooooooooooo) but, it's this same idea still - I just think it's a landmark film having seen it, but I get your point too...... by mattfincher on Aug 15, 2019 at 11:42am Talk of three acting nominations for The Irishman is far more insane to me than none of them getting nominated. De Niro giving a subdued performance + CGI in a crowded field does not give me any confidence whatsoever in him. The Pesci talk is probably a visceral response to seeing him on screen again that I think will wear off by season's end.
Also, Marriage Story will be Netflix's #1. You can take that to the bank.
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Post by mattfincher on Nov 13, 2019 20:35:49 GMT
I have strong belief in Pesci and agree he will factor well into critics awards, but you simply can’t call two actors from the same film locks in this category given how sparingly it’s happened and how competitive it is this year. There’s also The Departed as precedent for Scorsese not pulling such a feat off. I'm just saying having seen The Irishman I cant imagine any of them being left out and you know, that's the way this predicting thing works at this stage - go big or go home See below, I've already busted your balls on that (Marriage Story - nooooooooooo) but, it's this same idea still - I just think it's a landmark film having seen it, but I get your point too...... by mattfincher on Aug 15, 2019 at 11:42am Talk of three acting nominations for The Irishman is far more insane to me than none of them getting nominated. De Niro giving a subdued performance + CGI in a crowded field does not give me any confidence whatsoever in him. The Pesci talk is probably a visceral response to seeing him on screen again that I think will wear off by season's end.
Also, Marriage Story will be Netflix's #1. You can take that to the bank.People said the same about Nicholson. And I don't know why you keep bringing this quote up when all it does is prove I was right and ahead of the curve on Marriage Story. And FWIW, I've seen the film and don't think De Niro's getting nominated. It's a performance that will struggle with #1 votes. I do think Pesci is, but he's not a lock. And I still think Marriage Story is their #1.
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Post by quetee on Nov 13, 2019 20:43:18 GMT
a beautiful day not placing top 3 at tiff was beyond shocking. It's not if you've seen the movie. It's more peculiar than most think it is and it's being marketed as. I still think Hanks is in, but if his film isn't a Best Picture nom, and that's certainly becoming at least in question, he's going to be vulnerable. Right now I think it's Pacino and Pitt on one tier and everybody else on another. no, i havent seen it. Im just talking about how on paper i thought it would st lesst place especially with the buzz.
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Post by TerryMontana on Nov 13, 2019 21:05:58 GMT
I believe Hanks' nod is almost a lock. On the other hand, Pesci might be out.
And here we go again: Netflix gave almost 200 mil. just for the production of the Irishman and they want the BP Oscar. No Marriage Story or Two Popes or Dolemite or whatever is their #1 priority.
MS may very well win BP but that won't mean it's their number 1.
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Post by mattfincher on Nov 13, 2019 21:12:35 GMT
I believe Hanks' nod is almost a lock. On the other hand, Pesci might be out. And here we go again: Netflix gave almost 200 mil. just for the production of the Irishman and they want the BP Oscar. No Marriage Story or Two Popes or Dolemite or whatever is their #1 priority. MS may very well win BP but that won't mean it's their number 1. Hanks isn't a lock if his film isn't a Best Picture nom and that's looking less less likely by the day. The only two people you could convince me are locks here are Pacino and Pitt and even then, I don't think they are. I honestly believe this is the one acting category without a lock. Pacino could still get Nicholson'ed and Pitt's performance may be perceived as too effortless. The fuck does this even mean? If the movie wins Best Picture, it's inherently their #1.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Nov 13, 2019 21:26:06 GMT
The fuck does this even mean? If the movie wins Best Picture, it's inherently their #1. No, the movie they spend more money and resources campaigning for is their #1, regardless of how many Oscars it wins or doesn't win. And right now, it looks like Netflix is spending more on The Irishman's campaign than Marriage Story's.
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Post by quetee on Nov 13, 2019 21:26:50 GMT
I believe Hanks' nod is almost a lock. On the other hand, Pesci might be out. And here we go again: Netflix gave almost 200 mil. just for the production of the Irishman and they want the BP Oscar. No Marriage Story or Two Popes or Dolemite or whatever is their #1 priority. MS may very well win BP but that won't mean it's their number 1. we all know Netflix wants a bp but that doesn't mean it will happen.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 13, 2019 21:28:45 GMT
1. Pacino 2. Pitt 3. Hanks 4. Hopkins 5. Alda
I think a lot of people are underestimating Alda here.
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Post by TerryMontana on Nov 13, 2019 22:01:24 GMT
I believe Hanks' nod is almost a lock. On the other hand, Pesci might be out. And here we go again: Netflix gave almost 200 mil. just for the production of the Irishman and they want the BP Oscar. No Marriage Story or Two Popes or Dolemite or whatever is their #1 priority. MS may very well win BP but that won't mean it's their number 1. we all know Netflix wants a bp but that doesn't mean it will happen. Of course not. I'm saying they'll campaign to make it happen and they'll campaign mostly for the Irishman.
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Post by TerryMontana on Nov 13, 2019 22:03:47 GMT
I believe Hanks' nod is almost a lock. On the other hand, Pesci might be out. And here we go again: Netflix gave almost 200 mil. just for the production of the Irishman and they want the BP Oscar. No Marriage Story or Two Popes or Dolemite or whatever is their #1 priority. MS may very well win BP but that won't mean it's their number 1. Hanks isn't a lock if his film isn't a Best Picture nom and that's looking less less likely by the day. The only two people you could convince me are locks here are Pacino and Pitt and even then, I don't think they are. I honestly believe this is the one acting category without a lock. Pacino could still get Nicholson'ed and Pitt's performance may be perceived as too effortless. The fuck does this even mean? If the movie wins Best Picture, it's inherently their #1. Pretty much what Good God said: Their first priority is the movie they'll campaign harder for, no matter how many Oscars it will win or which movie wins BP.
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Post by Mattsby on Nov 13, 2019 22:20:25 GMT
Alda is who I think might steal Hanks spot around 4 or 5...
1 Pacino 2 Pesci 3 Pitt 4 Dafoe 5 Alda?
also probably too crowded but someone not on our poll is Kang-ho Song - who I'm rooting for bc he's one of my fav actors. I mean if Roma could get those acting noms last year I'd like to think Parasite could too.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Nov 13, 2019 22:28:17 GMT
I get all the skepticism surrounding Hanks, but it'd be shocking if Alda with (supposedly) a nothing performance in a nothing role beat out Hanks with his 1st or 2nd best reviews since Cast Away. For Hanks to be pushed out, I think it'll take passion picks like Dafoe or maybe even Foxx. Marriage Story will have to be a juggernaut for Alda to make it in over Hanks, and it's not that kind of a movie.
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Post by Mattsby on Nov 16, 2019 1:04:37 GMT
a nom is looking more and more likely, I think, I hope..... why not?..... and he's been campaigning quite a lot, post screening Q&As, interviews - a piece today in Variety - etc...
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Post by stephen on Nov 16, 2019 2:24:47 GMT
I really do think Song Kang-ho is gonna be our left-field nomination of the year. Parasite has the clout, and he's the face of the film. Just needs to work that circuit.
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Post by TerryMontana on Nov 16, 2019 15:13:58 GMT
He was more of a lead imo. But he deserves a nod. Actually every nod Parasite will get, will be a well deserved one.
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jakob
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Post by jakob on Nov 16, 2019 23:01:31 GMT
Tom Hanks Song Kang Ho Al Pacino Joe Pesci Brad Pitt
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Nov 17, 2019 7:10:46 GMT
I really do think Song Kang-ho is gonna be our left-field nomination of the year. Parasite has the clout, and he's the face of the film. Just needs to work that circuit. Some years I could see his happening but I feel like this year there are just too many heavy hitters. Strongest year in this category since probably 2012. That and Asian actors historically do very poorly at the Oscars. Especially while doing films in their native language.
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Post by sirjeremy on Nov 17, 2019 12:42:08 GMT
I'm coming round to the idea of Hanks receiving his first nomination in almost 20 years as I feel the attention he'll get because of what will probably be an adorable speech after he gets the Cecil B DeMille award at the Golden Globes on January 5th, three days after voting begins, will give him the edge here.
1. Pitt 2. Pacino 3. Hanks 4. Hopkins 5. Dafoe
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Post by TerryMontana on Nov 17, 2019 13:58:02 GMT
I still doubt Pesci will get a nod but having seen the Irishman, it will be a huge crime if he won't...
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