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Post by stephen on Jul 28, 2019 18:11:29 GMT
And we'll round out the acting categories by predicting who's going to be nominated in Best Supporting Actor. Place your bets, ladies and germs.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jul 28, 2019 18:19:46 GMT
I think we already have two other threads for BS actor. I'll try to find out my earlier post (which I modified and reposted it in the second thread). Then I'll modify it once again and post it once again
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Post by pacinoyes on Jul 28, 2019 18:25:48 GMT
Well let's get the elephant in the (my) room out of the way first - Pacino should be in the category unless he lets the film down - it's a major historical figure, not a mobster per se (a plus), involves some transformation and a showy role allegedly. I don't expect him to win but sure wouldn't mind it. Al Pacino at this stage is only good in film roles that he feels challenged by - YDK Jack, Phil Spector, Paterno, Manglehorn - if he's not challenged by this role which is a tragic role for fncksakes for Scorsese then.......time to call it a career grandpa ........... Lear or no Lear.
Hanks and Pitt are in here though the amount of people already calling Pitt lead is growing already.
Then it all depends on if The Irishman works how well does it work - enough to get 2 in? Pesci or Graham? I am thinking this category is stacked with legends or soon to be legends and getting 2 in will be tough ......but I'll go Graham at Rockwell expense if that's the case.
Dafoe (Lighthouse) Hanks Pacino Pitt Rockwell (Richard Jewell Film)
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Post by TerryMontana on Jul 28, 2019 18:53:55 GMT
Brad Pitt – Seems his performance is really solid. He might go lead. If this film grabs the academy's attention (most certain), Pitt will be a strong contender.
Al Pacino – In a category full of old hogs, he's probably having the juicier role of them all.
John Lithgow – I thought he would get a nod. Maybe I was wrong. He isn't wining either way.
Tom Hanks – So, is he supporting? If not, are we having another category fraud? Anyway, if he's placed here, he's the front runner imo.
Ben Mendelsohn – The film looks promising. I wouldn't strike out a nod.
Joe Pesci – Old guy looking for his awards come back. If the movie turns out to be a major hit, he's having a slight chance for a nod. I don't think so, though.
John Hamm – A beloved tv actor in a movie made by a beloved tv writer/ director. Sweet.
Willem Dafoe – I won't be surprised if he finally nabs the award. Overdue and with some great work lately.
Taika Waititi – If his film gets some nods, I don't think it will be in the acting catgories. Well, not BSA at least.
Christian Bale – Another real life character, another body transformation, probably another Oscar nomination and another defeat.
Timothée Chalamet - In a movie full of women, made of women, being about women, no man will be nominated.
Stephen Graham - If the Irishman works really well, he could be the surprise of the movie.
Anthony Hopkins - Very very curious about this film. Another old guy considered for an Oscar come back. I really hope so but I don't know what to think.
Gary Oldman - Don't see this happening.
Sam Rockwell - I don't think this film will be released this years.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jul 28, 2019 19:21:43 GMT
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - Although this category seems pretty competitive, he seems safe for a nomination. Of course, anything can happen, but with Ad Astra and this plus that one particular shot where he's on the roof going viral, I think he's in. I'm not sure about a win though after seeing OUATIH. Maybe, but I feel it will go to a veteran probably someone who hasn't won before.
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes - He feels due for a comeback nomination especially with the recent success he's had with Westworld. Plus, aside from The Irishman, which there's been even less word about than the slate of films that Netflix is taking to the first 3 big fall festivals, Netflix doesn't seem to have any other films to campaign in this category right now unless Alan Alda (Marriage Story) or Antonio Banderas (The Laundromat) or whomever emerges from their contenders. Sort of weird that Netflix didn't take this to Venice though, imo.
3. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy - During the first part of the year, I saw a lot of predictions for him, and then it faded with the news of reshoots and WB possibly moving it to 2020. Things seem much better now though, and this part seems very baity and sympathetic. Plus, I could be wrong, but I could see Just Mercy being something WB pushes for a possible Best Picture win, depending on its quality of course, and Joker mainly something they push for Joaquin Phoenix to win Best Actor. Not that I can't see Joker being nominated for Best Picture in an expanded field, but no way it has any chance of winning.
4. Al Pacino, The Irishman - I think if he's nominated, he would be closer to winning than my top 3 at the moment, but this film is still a big question mark.
5. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari - I'm getting a Rush feeling about Ford v Ferrari, but he's a lot more well known than Daniel Bruhl was so maybe a possible fifth nomination this decade. This is another film though that made perfect sense for Venice, so weird that it's not going either.
6. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood - ABDITN looks like it's going to be huge, but I've been burnt a lot predicting him in the past few years. So I'll believe it when I see it especially since he's playing the most Tom Hanks role ever.
7. Sam Rockwell, Jojo Rabbit - I feel he's still in the "sorry we missed you now we're going to nominate you for everything" phase especially after all the Emmy nominations that Fosse/Verdon received, but internal competition could be a problem here if people prefer Taika Waititi's performance or don't know which performer to go with. He also has The Ballad of Richard Jewell which on paper seems like it could be baity, but who knows with Cint Eastwood who seems to be more miss than hit this decade.
8. Leslie Odom Jr., Harriet - Not really confident in Harriet yet, but I am confident in whatever Focus's main push is, which I assume will be Harriet.
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit - I'm having flashbacks to another actor-director that won almost 20 years ago. Let's hope that Waititi won't suffer the same fate as Roberto Benigni if Jojo Rabbit does as well as Life Is Beautiful though.
10. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse - They really love him, but will they nominate him for this especially when A24 also has The Farewell and possibly Uncut Gems to promote too.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jul 28, 2019 21:34:16 GMT
Did I miss something? Where is this Hanks in supporting thing coming from?
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Jul 28, 2019 21:57:27 GMT
Did I miss something? Where is this Hanks in supporting thing coming from? IIRC people who went to advance screenings say Rhys is the actual lead and Hanks's screentime is shorter than it appears on paper, meaning he can feasibly (and probably will) be campaigned in Supporting.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 29, 2019 0:24:25 GMT
Bale Hanks Pacino Pitt Waititi
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jul 29, 2019 1:27:33 GMT
Did I miss something? Where is this Hanks in supporting thing coming from? IIRC people who went to advance screenings say Rhys is the actual lead and Hanks's screentime is shorter than it appears on paper, meaning he can feasibly (and probably will) be campaigned in Supporting. Thank you
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jakob
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Post by jakob on Jul 30, 2019 4:44:04 GMT
Bale is definitely 100% Lead. If they push him Supporting, it will be a major studio cheat and will be the one of the year’s biggest category frauds.
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Post by mattfincher on Jul 30, 2019 5:05:09 GMT
Bale is definitely 100% Lead. If they push him Supporting, it will be a major studio cheat and will be the one of the year’s biggest category frauds. Well, they’re gonna push him supporting because nobody pushes same gender co-leads in the same category anymore. I can tell you that without having seen the movie.
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jakob
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Post by jakob on Jul 30, 2019 5:20:18 GMT
Bale is definitely 100% Lead. If they push him Supporting, it will be a major studio cheat and will be the one of the year’s biggest category frauds. Well, they’re gonna push him supporting because nobody pushes same gender co-leads in the same category anymore. I can tell you that without having seen the movie. I’m honestly expecting them to do it to Damon. Most of the meat of the story revolves around Bale as the driver. Damon’s character barely has an arc, he’s just the literal “support” for Bale.
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Post by mattfincher on Jul 30, 2019 5:24:10 GMT
Well, they’re gonna push him supporting because nobody pushes same gender co-leads in the same category anymore. I can tell you that without having seen the movie. I’m honestly expecting them to do it to Damon. Most of the meat of the story revolves around Bale as the driver. Damon’s character barely has an arc, he’s just the literal “support” for Bale. That doesn’t really make sense from a logistics standpoint since it doesn’t sound like Damon gives a performance that anyone is going to be clamouring is awards worthy (I know quite a few who have seen the film) and Bale won’t be strong enough to make it into lead. Better to use Damon as a sacrificial lamb and fraud Bale. Damon is also first billed.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jul 30, 2019 9:23:50 GMT
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Al Pacino, The Irishman Joe Pesci, The Irishman Anthony Hopkins, The Pope (The Two Popes?)
HM: Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy John Lithgow, Fair and Balanced Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (if frauded)
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jul 31, 2019 6:58:31 GMT
already talked about how Waititi isn't going to happen in the supporting actress thread.
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Al Pacino, The Irishman Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
alternates: John Lithgow, Fair and Balanced Joe Pesci, The Irishman Christian Bale, Ford v. Ferrari (please god no) Alan Alda, Marriage Story
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Aug 3, 2019 15:07:57 GMT
Lazy category so far:
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Willem Dafoe: The Last Thing He Wanted Al Pacino: The Irishman Joe Pesci: The Irishman Brad Pitt: Once Upon a Time In Hollywood Jonathan Pryce: The Two Popes (could go lead.... or "Swap" with Hanks)
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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 3, 2019 15:53:07 GMT
Lazy category so far: BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE Willem Dafoe: The Last Thing He Wanted Al Pacino: The Irishman Joe Pesci: The Irishman Brad Pitt: Once Upon a Time In Hollywood Jonathan Pryce: The Two Popes (could go lead.... or "Swap" with Hanks) Lazy??? It could be stucked with so many big names. The ones you wrote, Hopkins, Bale, Hanks, Pesci... How on earth is that lazy?
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Post by mattfincher on Aug 3, 2019 16:30:04 GMT
Lazy category so far: BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE Willem Dafoe: The Last Thing He Wanted Al Pacino: The Irishman Joe Pesci: The Irishman Brad Pitt: Once Upon a Time In Hollywood Jonathan Pryce: The Two Popes (could go lead.... or "Swap" with Hanks) Lazy??? It could be stucked with so many big names. The ones you wrote, Hopkins, Bale, Hanks, Pesci... How on earth is that lazy? I guess some probably think this is going to be a 2012 repeat where you have a lot of big names in the category and it’s perceived as boring. But both male acting categories look as competitive as they’ve been the last few years (where the female races have been more interesting imo). Anyways, 1. Pitt (He’s in for the nom, what he needs now is a narrative and Ad Astra to be a hit since the performance doesn’t fit the traditional mold of a winner) 2. Hanks (Probably safe based on the ecstatic public reception to the trailer, but it’s still Hanks. Anything can happen. Could run away with the Oscar or miss completely) 3. Waititi (Has to break historical precedent since no one has directed themselves to a nom here, but I think he’ll do it) 4. Foxx (I’ve heard this role is the most baity in this field. I have questions about the film’s quality, but he should be able to overcome it regardless) 5. Bale (Very showy, but is this gonna be another First Man where the movie flops commercially and is framed as a failure? Has to make money for him to get in) 6/7. Pacino/Pesci (Pacino looks like he has the bigger role, but Pesci looked better to me in the trailer. Not sure which one will pop yet) 8. Dafoe (Could happen, but the film looks wacky. No way he’s getting SAG, for example) 9. Hopkins (Biggest wildcard here atm).
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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 3, 2019 16:44:19 GMT
3. Waititi (Has to break historical precedent since no one has directed themselves to a nom here, but I think he’ll do it) Getting a nod for playing a happy, dancing Hitler??? Can't see this happening.
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Post by mattfincher on Aug 3, 2019 16:45:20 GMT
3. Waititi (Has to break historical precedent since no one has directed themselves to a nom here, but I think he’ll do it) Getting a nod for playing a happy, dancing Hitler??? Can't see this happening. I’ve heard he’s great in the movie. We’ll see.
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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 3, 2019 16:49:13 GMT
Getting a nod for playing a happy, dancing Hitler??? Can't see this happening. I’ve heard he’s great in the movie. We’ll see. But is the movie great? Judging by the trailer, it could be funny. But not Oscar worthy stuff, imo. Who knows...
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Post by mattfincher on Aug 3, 2019 16:50:10 GMT
I’ve heard he’s great in the movie. We’ll see. But is the movie great? Judging by the trailer, it could be funny. But not Oscar worthy stuff, imo. Who knows... I’ve heard the movie could be the Best Picture winner, so yes.
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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 3, 2019 16:54:16 GMT
But is the movie great? Judging by the trailer, it could be funny. But not Oscar worthy stuff, imo. Who knows... I’ve heard the movie could be the Best Picture winner, so yes. That's what I had heard but now I highly doubt it. Whatever.
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Aug 4, 2019 10:05:08 GMT
Lazy category so far: BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE Willem Dafoe: The Last Thing He Wanted Al Pacino: The Irishman Joe Pesci: The Irishman Brad Pitt: Once Upon a Time In Hollywood Jonathan Pryce: The Two Popes (could go lead.... or "Swap" with Hanks) Lazy??? It could be stucked with so many big names. The ones you wrote, Hopkins, Bale, Hanks, Pesci... How on earth is that lazy? It is as you said in another thread.... most of them are frauds ( I expect Hopkins to be a fraud as well if he ends up here)... I think the only ones who truly are supporting of these mentioned above are Dafoe and Pesci
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Post by TerryMontana on Aug 4, 2019 10:57:06 GMT
Lazy??? It could be stucked with so many big names. The ones you wrote, Hopkins, Bale, Hanks, Pesci... How on earth is that lazy? It is as you said in another thread.... most of them are frauds ( I expect Hopkins to be a fraud as well if he ends up here)... I think the only ones who truly are supporting of these mentioned above are Dafoe and Pesci Well, rumors are Dafoe might be in the leading category, so... no he's not
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