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Post by stephen on Nov 9, 2019 0:48:03 GMT
Would he be a filler nominee, though? I suppose it would depend on one's definition of the category (which we've discussed before), but for me, a filler nominee is someone who voters lazily check off but who doesn't really have a whole lot of passion behind them. If Dafoe can manage to wangle a nomination, it would be almost entirely because there is passion for the performance, because it most definitely isn't an Oscar-friendly vehicle.
As for your question, it's hard to make a judgment call on that because, as the winners ultimately went on to win, they couldn't very well be considered filler nominees in retrospect. Maybe someone like Alan Arkin, you could make the argument for?
Arkin had a top film behind him. Nobody thinks The Lighthouse can get into Best Picture. True, but my argument was not trying to draw a comparison between Arkin and Dafoe specifically, but rather pointing out that it's hard to count any winner as a "filler" nominee retroactively, and Arkin had a real late surge that season, and he's the only one that I can think of that could fit the bill, and even then I don't even think he does, because as you say, he had a strong film behind him.
If Dafoe were to win (unlikely, I know, but I think he's very much in the hunt for a nomination), there would be all sorts of factors into it. He's "overdue", he's had an amazing run with the Academy lately, it's incredibly loud and showy work that would appeal to actors (if they actually watched the movie), his competition are made up of prior winners (if one counts Pitt's producing Oscar), etc., etc. And as I said above, you can't really count him as filler because even if his film isn't going to be a big awards contender, him getting in would be a passion-vote.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Nov 9, 2019 2:03:32 GMT
Didn't people learn anything from the last Oscar, lol.
If Glenn Close couldn't ride the overdue narrative, it is unlikely Willem Dafoe can. Both are in small films that likely aren't seen by a lot of AMPAS voters.
Al Pacino and Joe Pesci are this year's Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone. Previous winners competing from the same film. We all know how that turned out.
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Post by stephen on Nov 9, 2019 4:13:31 GMT
Al Pacino and Joe Pesci are this year's Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone. Previous winners competing from the same film. We all know how that turned out. Pesci will not campaign, and Netflix knows it. Pacino is likely going to be the one getting the attention and focus. And as much as I love Emma Stone and (mostly) like Rachel Weisz, they are not exactly in Pacino's class when it comes to acclaim and stature. Pacino is exactly who they would anoint with a second Oscar if they have the opportunity.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Nov 9, 2019 4:16:44 GMT
Pacino is exactly who they would anoint with a second Oscar if they have the opportunity. Well... they do now.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Nov 9, 2019 5:24:29 GMT
Al Pacino and Joe Pesci are this year's Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone. Previous winners competing from the same film. We all know how that turned out. Pesci will not campaign, and Netflix knows it. Pacino is likely going to be the one getting the attention and focus. And as much as I love Emma Stone and (mostly) like Rachel Weisz, they are not exactly in Pacino's class when it comes to acclaim and stature. Pacino is exactly who they would anoint with a second Oscar if they have the opportunity. I'm not sure how much campaigning there needs to be. The Irishman likely will be seen by a lot of AMPAS voters.
Brad Pitt has never won an acting Oscar. And he is more current in the industry.
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Post by mattfincher on Nov 9, 2019 15:52:50 GMT
Dafoe will never win for The Lighthouse given the competition. Another case of this forum hopedicting and believing a meritocracy. A win for a film like that requires his name popping on the ballot. That’s not going to happen when the other names would probably be some combo of Al Pacino, Joe Pesci, Brad Pitt, Anthony Hopkins and Tom Hanks. I will not discount the possibility of a nomination since he ostensibly has a faction who will nominate him for everything, but the win talk is ludicrous. His film is a weird genre movie that probably won’t clear $10 Million at the box office. He’s battling with Pesci and Hopkins for the last couple spots. His advantage being that he is campaigning and they are/will not. I am predicting Pacino for the win, but you better believe he’s low key praying Pesci ain’t there with him, because it’s gonna be 10x harder for him to win if he is.
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Post by SeanJoyce on Nov 9, 2019 16:27:13 GMT
LOL so now Dafoe, the co-lead of a true two-hander, is being considered for the SUPPORTING actor race???
What a goddamn joke.
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Post by mattfincher on Nov 9, 2019 16:51:20 GMT
LOL so now Dafoe, the co-lead of a true two-hander, is being considered for the SUPPORTING actor race??? What a goddamn joke. Their argument is probably that the film takes/is told through Pattinson's perspective, which is true, but it's still pretty egregious fraud given... they're the only two actors in the entire fucking movie and Dafoe is first billed. I think Pitt is a cheat too and you could probably make a case Hopkins is as well (although I know almost no one has seen this movie yet). I've heard some argue they think Pitt is fraud but Dafoe isn't... which is a galaxy brain take if I've ever seen one. Ultimately, this all comes down to strategy. Category fraud has become widely accepted by the industry, so I can't blame studios for taking advantage of it. Dafoe would have no chance in lead and Pitt would be unlikely given he'd be splitting votes with Leo leading to them both likely missing. I don't think Leo is a lock in lead even as is given the competition. Pitt is close to one, but this category is unusually competitive with six very strong contenders in my view (Pacino/Pesci/Hopkins/Pitt/Hanks/Dafoe) and somebody who wouldn't have missed in the last few years, is going to be squeezed out. It's unlikely given the performance has had strong staying power, but I'm not dismissing the idea it could be him. You also have Jamie Foxx in a super baity role and representing the only(?) diverse option here, although his film's conventionality and lack of contending in any other category may keep him boxed out here.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 9, 2019 17:39:12 GMT
as of November 9th, here's what I'm thinking.
1. Al Pacino, The Irishman 2. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 3. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 4. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes 5. Alan Alda, Marriage Story
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Post by SeanJoyce on Nov 9, 2019 17:45:47 GMT
LOL so now Dafoe, the co-lead of a true two-hander, is being considered for the SUPPORTING actor race??? What a goddamn joke. I think Pitt is a cheat too I'm already pissed enough about Pitt; Dafoe is just taking it to a whole new level. Unadulterated bullshit.
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Post by stephen on Nov 9, 2019 17:48:57 GMT
I think Pitt is a cheat too I'm already pissed enough about Pitt; Dafoe is just taking it to a whole new level. Unadulterated bullshit. If only the Academy felt the way you did.
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Post by IceTruckDexter on Nov 9, 2019 23:22:59 GMT
And as I said above, you can't really count him as filler because even if his film isn't going to be a big awards contender, him getting in would be a passion-vote. I don't disagree but I was talking about who's winning, not about nominations.
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Post by IceTruckDexter on Nov 9, 2019 23:24:39 GMT
I don't see anybody but Pitt winning. Pacino and Pesci seem to be cancelling each other out, Hanks hasn't been nominated in almost 20 years and keeps getting snubbed, Hopkins, Dafoe and Brown's films don't have enough strength to carry them to a win. If Pitt hadn't won Best Picture for '12 Years a Slave' then this would be a cake walk. If both Pacino and Pesci are nominated, that will benefit Pitt hugely. But if Pesci misses the nomination (which he certainly can), that won't be a factor anymore. He can but it's Joe Pesci. Who doesn't love Joe Pesci? He's getting nominated.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Nov 10, 2019 0:09:35 GMT
He can but it's Joe Pesci. Who doesn't love Joe Pesci? He's getting nominated. I don't know, man, but who doesn't love Tom Hanks? And he hasn't been nominated in a while.
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Post by TerryMontana on Nov 10, 2019 13:40:28 GMT
Hanks will be there. Finally!
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Post by stephen on Nov 10, 2019 23:25:18 GMT
Updated with poll.
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Post by JangoB on Nov 10, 2019 23:45:44 GMT
Right now I'm thinking (in order of likelihood):
1. Brad Pitt 2. Al Pacino 3. Tom Hanks 4. Anthony Hopkins 5. Joe Pesci
With Willem Dafoe looming on the horizon - Lord knows he's good at campaigning!
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morton
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Post by morton on Nov 11, 2019 0:16:00 GMT
Total opposite of the supporting actress category where there's too many spots for too few contenders.
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - Still not sure about the win yet between him and Pacino. (The other acting categories seem locked down to me though as far as the winners at least: Phoenix/Zellweger/Dern.)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman
3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman - I think he could miss all the televised precursors except maybe the Critics Choice because they have more spots, and still show up on nomination morning based on passion.
4. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes - Seems like actors' catnip, but sort of surprised that he and Pryce aren't on the campaign circuit more. It might not be necessary because of who they are, but with both male acting categories having so many contenders, it seems like it might be dangerous not to.
5. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy - I think he can still surprise given his role, heavy campaigning, and being one of the few POC actors that has a realistic chance of being nominated this year.
6. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood - ABDITN can definitely rebound when it opens, but I feel like it's lost a lot of momentum since TIFF. Plus, Sony has OUATIH and Little Women to juggle.
7. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse - He certainly has fans in AMPAS, but I think he misses this year.
8. John Lithgow, Bombshell - Actors love him, but I feel only the women will get awards attention from Bombshell.
9. Sam Rockwell, Richard Jewell - Could be Jojo Rabbit, but it feels like he has a bigger role in Richard Jewell. I think he'll end up missing, but he's in the "we'll nominate him for anything" phase it seems so he might still pull it off.
10. Alan Alda, Marriage Story - I'm extremely doubtful now after reading more reviews, but if they really love Marriage Story.
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Post by Sharbs on Nov 11, 2019 1:16:00 GMT
Sterling K. Brown Willem Dafoe Tom Hanks Al Pacino Brad Pitt
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Post by TerryMontana on Nov 11, 2019 6:32:39 GMT
Pitt Pacino Hanks Hopkins Dafoe/ Pesci
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Post by JangoB on Nov 13, 2019 12:43:38 GMT
Dunno how to fit him in my predictions but I kinda have a feeling that Lithgow has a strong shot of showing up here. A big bad guy performance with tons of makeup - I remember thinking that he might win this whole thing back when his casting was first announced. The category has a lot of strong contenders though so I'm not putting him in just yet, plus it's a bit difficult to predict "Bombshell" for three acting nominations without a BP one...and yet I feel it might happen. And who knows, maybe the movie does get in for BP. Then Lithgow's chances would be even stronger.
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Post by Allenism on Nov 13, 2019 13:11:10 GMT
Pitt Pacino Hopkins Pesci Hanks
Alt: Dafoe
Pretty boring.
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Post by pacinoyes on Nov 13, 2019 13:45:53 GMT
Dunno how to fit him in my predictions but I kinda have a feeling that Lithgow has a strong shot of showing up here. A big bad guy performance with tons of makeup - I remember thinking that he might win this whole thing back when his casting was first announced. The category has a lot of strong contenders though so I'm not putting him in just yet, plus it's a bit difficult to predict "Bombshell" for three acting nominations without a BP one...and yet I feel it might happen. And who knows, maybe the movie does get in for BP. Then Lithgow's chances would be even stronger. If he were to win he'd become the all-time triple crown actor ever - and by a big margin too - with 9 wins (6 Emmy's, 2 Tony's) - it would be a huge deal in that general awards sense if he could pull it off. Especially in such a stacked year.....
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Post by TerryMontana on Nov 13, 2019 13:57:54 GMT
I had asked about his chances of getting a nod a while ago and some guys in here who had already seen the film answered he has no real chance.
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Post by quetee on Nov 13, 2019 19:16:14 GMT
Do you guys think it is possible for hanks to get snubbed? He's not playing against type.
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