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Post by wilcinema on Feb 3, 2019 13:58:36 GMT
I can't believe this movie, with its marquee names, critical acclaim and box office is literally COLLAPSING in front of our eyes.
In October-November, most people would agree it was the one to beat. Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, possibly Best Adapted Screenplay. Many thought that Cooper could be a threat for Best Director. It was called a lock for the Golden Globes and the PGA.
Four months later, it has lost the Golden Globes, the Critics' Choice, the SAG (4th movie in 25 years to go empty-handed despite 4 nominations), the PGA, it didn't get a Best Director nomination and it didn't even win Best First Feature award at the DGA.
It will lose Best Sound Mixing at the Oscars (another award for which it was considered an overwhelming frontrunner), and it will probably end up with only Best Original Song... unless it somehow loses it to "All The Stars".
What other movie had such a shocking downfall? I remember Up In The Air being considered a huge frontrunner in November 2009, but even that comparison is weak.
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Post by ibbi on Feb 3, 2019 14:00:38 GMT
Cold Mountain.
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Post by wilcinema on Feb 3, 2019 14:08:19 GMT
Last year, Three Billboards. Winning BP at BAFTA, GG and SAG but damn losing the main trophy at the Oscar. So winning BAFTA, GG and SAG is what you call a collapse?
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Post by pacinoyes on Feb 3, 2019 14:09:05 GMT
This movie is symptomatic of the year and is unlike any other exactly, historically - a year where I personally gave a thumbs up to 4 out of 8 of the best pictures - it's that bad of a year but a fascinating one.
The reason for the collapse is the industry has decided it was never that good - and I gave it a pass, but that is what's happened here - it is not an awards collapse, or them being jealous and not liking Cooper or that kind of stuff - they literally are saying in comparison to Roma (and some others) it doesn't cut the mustard really. Now the reason that's happened this year is because the paradigm has shifted:
Precursors have never mattered less, critics have never mattered less, the public can therefore be dismissed, Oscar history can be dismissed, Netflix has never mattered before now period.
Whole new war now, in war there are casualties........ASIB is one of them. So to me it isn't comparable to past history of early faders, it's something new happening now.
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 3, 2019 14:23:21 GMT
I can't believe this movie, with its marquee names, critical acclaim and box office is literally COLLAPSING in front of our eyes.
In October-November, most people would agree it was the one to beat. Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, possibly Best Adapted Screenplay. Many thought that Cooper could be a threat for Best Director. It was called a lock for the Golden Globes and the PGA.
Four months later, it has lost the Golden Globes, the Critics' Choice, the SAG (4th movie in 25 years to go empty-handed despite 4 nominations), the PGA, it didn't get a Best Director nomination and it didn't even win Best First Feature award at the DGA.
It will lose Best Sound Mixing at the Oscars (another award for which it was considered an overwhelming frontrunner), and it will probably end up with only Best Original Song... unless it somehow loses it to "All The Stars".
What other movie had such a shocking downfall? I remember Up In The Air being considered a huge frontrunner in November 2009, but even that comparison is weak.
The dubious honors probably go to either BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, THE SOCIAL NETWORK, LA LA LAND, or BOYHOOD. All of these films scored big at the Globes and Critics Choice, and then when the Guilds came out, their lead went from top of the mountain to up in the air. The thing about A STAR IS BORN, it never actually got off the ground. In other words, the air in the balloon went out after scoring blanks for Lady Gaga, Bradley Cooper, and the film at the Globes.
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 3, 2019 14:29:30 GMT
So winning BAFTA, GG and SAG is what you call a collapse? What's the use of winning all these awards if you can't win the world's most prestigious award? Maybe the only film in history, winning major precursors but lost to the big prize...what a shame Not so much. The Shape of Water had the most nominations, and won just as many major prizes as Three Billboards. TSOW - PGA, DGA, and Critics Choice Billboards - GG, SAG, and BAFTA Get Out and Call Me - WGA Lady Bird - Globe Billboards had the BD miss, and Water had the ensemble miss. The race started off as Billboards vs. Water, and ended up being the same. I for one went in the direct opposite of the Gold Derby pundits. They all started off with Water and shifted toward Billboards.
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Post by wilcinema on Feb 3, 2019 14:32:16 GMT
I can't believe this movie, with its marquee names, critical acclaim and box office is literally COLLAPSING in front of our eyes.
In October-November, most people would agree it was the one to beat. Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, possibly Best Adapted Screenplay. Many thought that Cooper could be a threat for Best Director. It was called a lock for the Golden Globes and the PGA.
Four months later, it has lost the Golden Globes, the Critics' Choice, the SAG (4th movie in 25 years to go empty-handed despite 4 nominations), the PGA, it didn't get a Best Director nomination and it didn't even win Best First Feature award at the DGA.
It will lose Best Sound Mixing at the Oscars (another award for which it was considered an overwhelming frontrunner), and it will probably end up with only Best Original Song... unless it somehow loses it to "All The Stars".
What other movie had such a shocking downfall? I remember Up In The Air being considered a huge frontrunner in November 2009, but even that comparison is weak.
The dubious honors probably go to either BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, THE SOCIAL NETWORK, LA LA LAND, or BOYHOOD. All of these films scored big at the Globes and Critics Choice, and then when the Guilds came out, their lead went from top of the mountain to up in the air. The thing about A STAR IS BORN, it never actually got off the ground. In other words, the air in the balloon went out after scoring blanks for Lady Gaga, Bradley Cooper, and the film at the Globes. You keep mentioning movies that won guild awards or important Oscars or awards. A Star Is Born is going from winning everything to winning nothing.
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LaraQ
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English Rose
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Post by LaraQ on Feb 3, 2019 14:46:04 GMT
I can't believe this movie, with its marquee names, critical acclaim and box office is literally COLLAPSING in front of our eyes.
In October-November, most people would agree it was the one to beat. Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, possibly Best Adapted Screenplay. Many thought that Cooper could be a threat for Best Director. It was called a lock for the Golden Globes and the PGA.
Four months later, it has lost the Golden Globes, the Critics' Choice, the SAG (4th movie in 25 years to go empty-handed despite 4 nominations), the PGA, it didn't get a Best Director nomination and it didn't even win Best First Feature award at the DGA.
It will lose Best Sound Mixing at the Oscars (another award for which it was considered an overwhelming frontrunner), and it will probably end up with only Best Original Song... unless it somehow loses it to "All The Stars".
What other movie had such a shocking downfall? I remember Up In The Air being considered a huge frontrunner in November 2009, but even that comparison is weak.
A couple of months ago it seemed like it was a lock to win all the major awards including Best Actress,it's been genuinely surprising to watch the way things have unfolded.Bo Rap seems to have all the momentum now.
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Post by mrimpossible on Feb 3, 2019 14:59:46 GMT
Ya gotta go with Ibbi here. Cold Mountain it even missed a BP nom. Too bad it got us one of the worst Supporting Actress wins...
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Post by bruinjoe96 on Feb 3, 2019 15:15:29 GMT
American Hustle, I don't remember the 2013 awards season too much, but were most of us picking AH to win early on?
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Post by JangoB on Feb 3, 2019 15:22:18 GMT
Was it really considered an overwhelming favorite for Sound Mixing?
Anyway, no, I wouldn't say it's the biggest collapse. The fault is on the overreactions which came out prior to the awards seasonitself - 'Oh, it's gonna sweep the Oscars, Cooper's definitely winning, it's gonna win the top 5, etc'. The moral is easy: wait until the actual awards season, dammit! It's not the biggest collapse because it didn't really perform that astonishingly at the season itself. For me the real collapses are when a movie starts strong and then loses steam in the process. Ibbi's "Cold Mountain" is a much better example with the ton of Golden Globes and BAFTA nominations it received and then it failing to even make it in BP.
"ASIB" did fine. Even if it somewhat underperformed with Cooper missing Director and also the Editing snub, it still got a good bunch of nominations and is definitely winning Best Song. Being proclaimed the frontrunner months before the season itself is never good. But nothing about its showing during the season itself suggested that it was gonna be this huge juggernaut.
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Post by pacinoyes on Feb 3, 2019 15:24:22 GMT
Think people are missing the intent of the question a bit - American Hustle won SAG for best ensemble, it won Globes, Cold Mountain won a major award at the big show.......the point is ASIB is winning nothing major across any of the awards because, it's a historic year - see my post above.
The original question is well intentioned but flawed because as usual on here we are more interested in scouring the record book because the only thing we love more than precursors is polls (Best Costume Design 1940!) .....finding past outdated corollaries rather then the assessing the historic time we're living in now.
This is your Vietnam era movie lovers, this is your Civil Rights march, you can all start burning your manziers, break out your Che t-shirts.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 3, 2019 15:36:07 GMT
I get what you’re saying but we’re the expecting really there outside of Twitter/film boards? I’m sure some pundits declared it the front runner out of the gate but it also came out earlier than most of its competition so it likel y was at the time.
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Post by TheAlwaysClassy on Feb 3, 2019 16:08:49 GMT
Maybe Dreamgirls?
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filmnoir
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Posts: 820
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Post by filmnoir on Feb 3, 2019 16:59:33 GMT
I can't believe this movie, with its marquee names, critical acclaim and box office is literally COLLAPSING in front of our eyes.
In October-November, most people would agree it was the one to beat. Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, possibly Best Adapted Screenplay. Many thought that Cooper could be a threat for Best Director. It was called a lock for the Golden Globes and the PGA.
Four months later, it has lost the Golden Globes, the Critics' Choice, the SAG (4th movie in 25 years to go empty-handed despite 4 nominations), the PGA, it didn't get a Best Director nomination and it didn't even win Best First Feature award at the DGA.
It will lose Best Sound Mixing at the Oscars (another award for which it was considered an overwhelming frontrunner), and it will probably end up with only Best Original Song... unless it somehow loses it to "All The Stars".
What other movie had such a shocking downfall? I remember Up In The Air being considered a huge frontrunner in November 2009, but even that comparison is weak.
The dubious honors probably go to either BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, THE SOCIAL NETWORK, LA LA LAND, or BOYHOOD. All of these films scored big at the Globes and Critics Choice, and then when the Guilds came out, their lead went from top of the mountain to up in the air. The thing about A STAR IS BORN, it never actually got off the ground. In other words, the air in the balloon went out after scoring blanks for Lady Gaga, Bradley Cooper, and the film at the Globes. That's not true about Brokeback Mountain and La La Land, both performed very well at the guilds - and even at Oscar. Their hiccup was loosing Best Picture at the end.
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 3, 2019 17:19:49 GMT
The dubious honors probably go to either BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, THE SOCIAL NETWORK, LA LA LAND, or BOYHOOD. All of these films scored big at the Globes and Critics Choice, and then when the Guilds came out, their lead went from top of the mountain to up in the air. The thing about A STAR IS BORN, it never actually got off the ground. In other words, the air in the balloon went out after scoring blanks for Lady Gaga, Bradley Cooper, and the film at the Globes. That's not true about Brokeback Mountain and La La Land, both performed very well at the guilds - and even at Oscar. Their hiccup was loosing Best Picture at the end. Hence why it would be the biggest collapse. It dominated so much, that it couldn't land the biggest one of them all.
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Post by Martin Stett on Feb 3, 2019 17:35:14 GMT
I can't believe this movie, with its marquee names, critical acclaim and box office is literally COLLAPSING in front of our eyes.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Feb 3, 2019 17:37:22 GMT
That's not true about Brokeback Mountain and La La Land, both performed very well at the guilds - and even at Oscar. Their hiccup was loosing Best Picture at the end. Hence why it would be the biggest collapse. It dominated so much, that it couldn't land the biggest one of them all. But you original claimed "All of these films scored big at the Globes and Critics Choice, and then when the Guilds came out, their lead went from top of the mountain to up in the air."
The FACT is Brokeback Mountain and La La Land did very well at the guilds. Their leads were not "up in the air" at that point - as you had claimed.
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Feb 3, 2019 18:38:47 GMT
I don't really mind where it ranks among collapses, I'm just delighted it happened.
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Post by bob-coppola on Feb 3, 2019 19:02:52 GMT
Oh, God, I miss those sweet days when we were all clutching our pearls over Cooper being a threat to win BD and Gaga to BA, and Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody were two harmless little pets we didn't think would eat us alive.
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morton
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Post by morton on Feb 3, 2019 19:39:00 GMT
I get what you mean, and while ASIB's collapse has been pretty bad, I think that there are others that are worse. Like Boyhood was mentioned and to me that was a bigger collapse because until the industry awards began, it looked to be the favorite since it won so many critics awards and did well at the Globes. Then, the guilds started and even with the BAFTA win, it was clear that there was big split between what the industry liked and what critics liked.
With ASIB, I think that the signs were there that maybe it wasn't going to be the juggernaut that some on film twitter expected. Even if the critics awards especially the smaller regional awards don't really mean anything, they can signal trends though, and I think we saw that with A Star Is Born.
It didn't win anything at the big 3, and even in the regional awards, it wasn't winning that much either song, sometimes Gaga, and in a few cases Elliott. Cooper was way behind Hawke and Bale, and I think he was even more behind Cuaron, Lee, and others in directing.
In hindsight, maybe the signs were there that Green Book would be more of a threat to Roma because Green Book won NBR right away, and won Best Picture at a few places like San Diego which signaled that it was the alternate to Roma and not ASIB.
Then, there were other cracks like when Sam Elliott wasn't nominated at the Globes despite most pundits and prognosticators thinking that the Globes would just eat ASIB up, and that could it possibly pull a La La Land there and hurt its Best Picture chances because of the backlash.
And then at the Globes it only managed to win Best Song, and couldn't even beat out Bohemian Rhapsody for Best Drama.
OT: We also saw this with BlacKkKlansman to; although, maybe not to the same degree. I think Lee came in second to Cuaron in directing prizes; although, he was still way behind. It was never named Best Picture anywhere though, and even for screenplay, it wasn't a juggernaut either. I think it's just fortunate for Lee and company that he was nominated for director, and the other contenders sans ASIB aren't nominated for Best Picture.
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Post by DeepArcher on Feb 3, 2019 19:41:51 GMT
Or maybe it was, you know, not that big of a contender to begin with?
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Feb 3, 2019 21:23:36 GMT
Oh, God, I miss those sweet days when we were all clutching our pearls over Cooper being a threat to win BD and Gaga to BA, and Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody were two harmless little pets we didn't think would eat us alive. Agreed. GB, BR (and Vice tbh) make ASIB look like Citizen Kane.
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Post by bob-coppola on Feb 3, 2019 22:43:27 GMT
Oh, God, I miss those sweet days when we were all clutching our pearls over Cooper being a threat to win BD and Gaga to BA, and Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody were two harmless little pets we didn't think would eat us alive. Agreed. GB, BR (and Vice tbh) make ASIB look like Citizen Kane. Indeed. ASIB is competently made, enjoyable, just way too much saccharine. GB and BR are trainwrecks. Personally speaking, I liked Vice and thinks it's the best of these four cited, but I can totally see why people don't like it.
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Post by mrimpossible on Feb 3, 2019 22:55:04 GMT
Agreed. GB, BR (and Vice tbh) make ASIB look like Citizen Kane. Indeed. ASIB is competently made, enjoyable, just way too much saccharine. GB and BR are trainwrecks. Personally speaking, I liked Vice and thinks it's the best of these four cited, but I can totally see why people don't like it. Vice is extremely divisive. Some hate others love it. Personally I'm in the middle I respect it a lot but so much of it was too on the nose and quite frankly a hallow depiction of Dick Cheney. I didn't learn anything I didn't know.
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