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Post by TheAlwaysClassy on Jan 12, 2019 22:37:40 GMT
I still figure Cooper will win in the acting department. They'll want to reward him somewhere and I just don't see him winning Director or Screenplay.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 12, 2019 22:40:01 GMT
That is still just speculation though. I believe Peele would have won anyways and Moonlight was always a very strong contender.. I was mostly referring to how backlash effects actors because this is a best actor thread. As far as I can tell there has been no effect on the actors in these movies. I don’t see this effecting Malek or Ali at all. They might lose but I don’t think that will be why. Yeah, but we'll never know for sure. Peele had an awful lot going for him, of course (as did Gerwig), but McDonagh might've lost a few crucial votes by those who might've seen the backlash to it. I don't think Malek will catch a whole lot of the heat from the Singer involvement. If anything, him being rumored to be the one behind Singer getting fired might actually benefit him. And I don't think Ali is winning his second so soon, as I feel his Globe was more of a makeup win for Moonlight. But we'll see how it shakes out. Even if McDonagh’s loss had something to do with backlash it would be because it was his screenplay that caused the controversy. McDormand and Rockwell weren’t effected because they had nothing to do with it. (Same as Ali and Malek have nothing to do with theirs) Yeah like I said. If Ali loses it won’t be because of this.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 12, 2019 22:49:06 GMT
I still figure Cooper will win in the acting department. They'll want to reward him somewhere and I just don't see him winning Director or Screenplay. I really doubt it. People have had this performance pegged as a front-runner out the gate and he only has two minor critics' wins to show for it and a boatload of nominations. With Malek and Bale neck and neck in terms of wins and Hawke solidly out of the top 3 at least, I don't think it makes sense to predict AMPAS virtually being Cooper's only win here. Unless he wins at SAG and I don't see that happening. This is a Malek-Bale race now. I also don't buy that Star Is Born is a frontrunner for anything other than Song at this point. Director isn't happening, Gaga isn't happening, Elliott isn't happening, Cooper's acting isn't happening. Against all odds there clearly just isn't enough momentum for it.
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Post by cheesecake on Jan 12, 2019 23:23:35 GMT
I've been leaning towards Malek for a few weeks.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 13, 2019 20:50:25 GMT
The term “backlash” is very overused on this board. People need to calm down. I’ve seen people talk about a backlash against Roma. Some people not liking a movie that’s well received / winning awards is not backlash. It’s something that happens to literally every acclaimed movie. So in regards to this case. There is zero evidence that backlash against a film effects the actors involved. La La Land won best actress and 3 BB won TWO acting awards. Film Twitter outrage is not that important. People being outraged about Singer is pretty irrelivant. This is not new information. People are just extra loud now because they don’t like the movie and it won the Drama Globe. The average age of an academy voter is 63 years old. They don’t care about your internet outrage. There is a very strong chance it affected McDonagh winning screenplay, and that there might've been people putting La La Land at the bottom of their BP preferential ballot that gave Moonlight the edge. Yes, backlash can be grossly overstated, but there are cases where it has been seen to have affected a film that otherwise might have been able to weather it. We can't know entirely for sure unless we poll every Academy voter, but in this particular era of social media, that shit does seep through. Maybe a lot of the old Academy voters don't go on Twitter, but that outrage can and does spill into the news (both Green Book's controversies, for example, have been picked up on the wire by actual news outlets), so they may see it regardless. Those that love the film are still going to vote for it, but those who might've been on the fence about it might not. And with as close of a race as it's been for certain categories, that margin might be enough to affect a different outcome. Here we go again. You continue to go down this road. What Sterling said is 100% correct. Any film can have backlash. It all depends on who is complaining about it. With LLL, 3BB, and The Revenant, you had examples where journalists actually surveyed actual Academy voters, and they found a sharp division between LOVE and "it was decent". All what we're hearing is media noise about Green Book. You have presented ZERO evidence that actual Academy members complaining. Media noise does not count as ACTUAL backlash.
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Post by stephen on Jan 13, 2019 20:59:36 GMT
There is a very strong chance it affected McDonagh winning screenplay, and that there might've been people putting La La Land at the bottom of their BP preferential ballot that gave Moonlight the edge. Yes, backlash can be grossly overstated, but there are cases where it has been seen to have affected a film that otherwise might have been able to weather it. We can't know entirely for sure unless we poll every Academy voter, but in this particular era of social media, that shit does seep through. Maybe a lot of the old Academy voters don't go on Twitter, but that outrage can and does spill into the news (both Green Book's controversies, for example, have been picked up on the wire by actual news outlets), so they may see it regardless. Those that love the film are still going to vote for it, but those who might've been on the fence about it might not. And with as close of a race as it's been for certain categories, that margin might be enough to affect a different outcome. Here we go again. You continue to go down this road. What Sterling said is 100% correct. Any film can have backlash. It all depends on who is complaining about it. With LLL, 3BB, and The Revenant, you had examples where journalists actually surveyed actual Academy voters, and they found a sharp division between LOVE and "it was decent". All what we're hearing is media noise about Green Book. You have presented ZERO evidence that actual Academy members complaining. Media noise does not count as ACTUAL backlash. Relax. It's possible that Green Book will skate by and this will all blow over. But the industry awards just started. No one's polling Academy voters now because the nominations haven't been announced. We're just using previous instances of backlash as a bellwether to see how this year's controversies will affect their films. Media noise is still backlash, but it remains to be seen if that will be correlated by the awards bodies. Notice I have been saying "may" and "might," not "will." But we've seen films do very well at the outset, then lose steam at the end. And with so many thinkpieces and open discussions on what the films being rewarded mean in the grand scheme of things (i.e. would the Academy want to put their seal of approval on a feel-good movie getting Driving Miss Daisy 2.0 comparisons against another Spike Lee film, considering how that same decision 30 years ago is heavily scrutinized?), controversy can do a lot to derail a film at the final hurdle. So again, relax. I have no vested interest in seeing Green Book or Bohemian Rhapsody fail. But if we're having the discussion of which films in the race are at the most risk of having backlash, it's these two. They won major prizes at the Globes, which elevates their profile substantially, and both have some intense media scrutiny on them right now.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 14, 2019 3:25:40 GMT
Here we go again. You continue to go down this road. What Sterling said is 100% correct. Any film can have backlash. It all depends on who is complaining about it. With LLL, 3BB, and The Revenant, you had examples where journalists actually surveyed actual Academy voters, and they found a sharp division between LOVE and "it was decent". All what we're hearing is media noise about Green Book. You have presented ZERO evidence that actual Academy members complaining. Media noise does not count as ACTUAL backlash. Relax. It's possible that Green Book will skate by and this will all blow over. But the industry awards just started. No one's polling Academy voters now because the nominations haven't been announced. We're just using previous instances of backlash as a bellwether to see how this year's controversies will affect their films. Media noise is still backlash, but it remains to be seen if that will be correlated by the awards bodies. Notice I have been saying "may" and "might," not "will." But we've seen films do very well at the outset, then lose steam at the end. And with so many thinkpieces and open discussions on what the films being rewarded mean in the grand scheme of things (i.e. would the Academy want to put their seal of approval on a feel-good movie getting Driving Miss Daisy 2.0 comparisons against another Spike Lee film, considering how that same decision 30 years ago is heavily scrutinized?), controversy can do a lot to derail a film at the final hurdle. So again, relax. I have no vested interest in seeing Green Book or Bohemian Rhapsody fail. But if we're having the discussion of which films in the race are at the most risk of having backlash, it's these two. They won major prizes at the Globes, which elevates their profile substantially, and both have some intense media scrutiny on them right now. The thing is I haven’t met a single person that didn’t love Green Book. There’s no reason to think the majority of voting embers don’t as well. There’s no “Academy” putting their seal of approval on anything, just a lot of individuals voting for the movies/performances they love.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 14, 2019 4:03:50 GMT
I don't know if they were reacting to the backlash, but I think it was a bit strange that BFCA didn't go with Green Book in Original Screenplay and avoided Bohemian Rhapsody too.
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Post by quetee on Jan 14, 2019 4:39:16 GMT
I don't know if they were reacting to the backlash, but I think it was a bit strange that BFCA didn't go with Green Book in Original Screenplay and avoided Bohemian Rhapsody too. Who knows sometimes people vote strategically. Jeff Wells over at Hollywood Elsewhere votes BFCA and he has been huge supporter of Ethan Hawke all year long that's all he has been talking about but guess whom he voted for as winner??? Dafoe. Does that make any sense? Nope. It was a wasted vote.
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Post by Pavan on Jan 14, 2019 6:41:09 GMT
Malek won't win. HFPA fell for Bohemian Rhapsody but The Academy won't. My guess is either Cooper or Bale will take the Oscar home. Yup Malek's not winning.
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Jan 14, 2019 8:41:24 GMT
Changing my vote to Bale.
I still make Malek the minor favoutite, but I think Bale has enough of a shot to take it home. I think he'll win BATFA, so we'll see what happens at SAG I guess.
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rhodoraonline
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Post by rhodoraonline on Jan 21, 2019 15:28:29 GMT
After having seen all the major contenders except Willem Dafoe, I am even more stronger in my predicting a Bale win. He IS way ahead of the competition imho.
Here's my ranking:
1. Bale 2. Gosling 3. Hawke 4. Cooper 5. Malek 6. Washington
NS Dafoe
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 21, 2019 16:23:19 GMT
I voted for Malek but I think it's really possible that Bale will win.
If Cooper gets a song nomination, he might win one.
But for supporting role, I think Elliott stands a good chance.
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Post by bob-coppola on Jan 21, 2019 16:26:41 GMT
I think Malek can win because, as Redmayne has shown us, AMPAS can be really blind when it comes down to acting in biopics and think "looking like said person" equals great acting. But, maybe because I'm in deep denial and want to speak it into existence, I do believe Bale can win. His GG speech was the highlight of the night, he gave great speeches at the BFCA and Vice is doing better than fine. Also, Bale is the kind of actor who has 2 Oscars.
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Post by theycallmemrfish on Jan 21, 2019 17:44:57 GMT
Rami, the GOAT>
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rhodoraonline
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Post by rhodoraonline on Jan 21, 2019 18:36:18 GMT
I think Malek can win because, as Redmayne has shown us, AMPAS can be really blind when it comes down to acting in biopics and think "looking like said person" equals great acting. But, maybe because I'm in deep denial and want to speak it into existence, I do believe Bale can win. His GG speech was the highlight of the night, he gave great speeches at the BFCA and Vice is doing better than fine. Also, Bale is the kind of actor who has 2 Oscars. The weird (actually awesome) thing about Bale is that until before this season, he always gave this underrated feel due to the many of his great performances routinely ignored before: Rescue Dawn, American Psycho, The Prestige, Out of the Furnace, and even Harsh Times for many, even 3:10to Yuma for some, and lately, of course, Hostiles. When he wasn't ignored, those were for studio-released favorites and I interpreted those as Academy acknowledging his enormous career performance-wise in their weird career-rewarding way. That is why, I believe, he CAN prevail despite Malek's Redmayne style look-alike performance, cause guess what ... Bale's is an even more impressive transformation, physical and beyond.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 21, 2019 19:29:53 GMT
I think Malek can win because, as Redmayne has shown us, AMPAS can be really blind when it comes down to acting in biopics and think "looking like said person" equals great acting. But, maybe because I'm in deep denial and want to speak it into existence, I do believe Bale can win. His GG speech was the highlight of the night, he gave great speeches at the BFCA and Vice is doing better than fine. Also, Bale is the kind of actor who has 2 Oscars. The weird (actually awesome) thing about Bale is that until before this season, he always gave this underrated feel due to the many of his great performances routinely ignored before: Rescue Dawn, American Psycho, The Prestige, Out of the Furnace, and even Harsh Times for many, even 3:10to Yuma for some, and lately, of course, Hostiles. When he wasn't ignored, those were for studio-released favorites and I interpreted those as Academy acknowledging his enormous career performance-wise in their weird career-rewarding way. That is why, I believe, he CAN prevail despite Malek's Redmayne style look-alike performance, cause guess what ... Bale's is an even more impressive transformation, physical and beyond. To me Bale often gets nominated for the wrong performances. I thought he was nothing special in American Hustle and The Big Short. I thought he had many performances before those deserving of recognition though (Especially American Psycho, The Machinist and Rescue Dawn. Empire of the Sun is also one of my favorite child performances).
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rhodoraonline
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Post by rhodoraonline on Jan 22, 2019 16:57:05 GMT
OP gotta update this with Dafoe. I gotta see Eternity's Gate to see how much of a threat Dafoe is to Bale now. Is it out there?
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Post by wallsofjericho on Jan 22, 2019 17:00:07 GMT
Bale I think.
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seronie
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Post by seronie on Jan 22, 2019 20:53:41 GMT
How much of a threat is Dafoe?
If you think about it Cooper is on the wane, Bale has one, with BHs backlash, could he upset?
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rhodoraonline
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Post by rhodoraonline on Jan 22, 2019 22:02:59 GMT
How much of a threat is Dafoe? If you think about it Cooper is on the wane, Bale has one, with BHs backlash, could he upset? I'm leaning towards an upset the more I read about this. The role is of showy nature, Dafoe has had a surge since last year and very well-deserved. SAG isn't gonna affect him ... I think it's gonna come down to their overall passion for Vice.
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