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Post by wilcinema on Jan 8, 2019 17:29:06 GMT
It wasn't totally unpredictable, but Rami Malek winning the Globe for Best Drama Actor shakes the hell out of the race.
It's especially surprising that a group like the HFPA, that loves stars and popularity like few others, let Bradley Cooper and the movie go basically empty-handed.
So now the question is: who's winning the Oscar?
Smart money is still on Cooper, I think. He will most likely be at his 8th nomination that night. Will the Academy really ignore him?
On the other hand, Rami Malek is coming out strong: he's won the Globe, he's in a very good position to win BAFTA, while SAG fell head over heels for the movie. Christian Bale has stellar reviews + a killer speech at the Globes.
The make-or-break for Cooper is SAG. If he wins there (and I'm still predicting him to), he'll be able to pull it off. If he doesn't, he'd better get ready for a disappointment.
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Post by stephen on Jan 8, 2019 17:36:00 GMT
Depends on who wins SAG.
Malek feels more like a BAFTA favorite than Cooper, who really needed to begin his surge at the Globes but instead fell on his face. A Globe + BAFTA combo is pretty good to have on its own merits, so I think even if Cooper (or someone else) won SAG, Malek would still be a thorn in their side till the end. It would ultimately depend on how he can weather the Bohemian backlash that's brewing.
I also suspect that Cooper might get more love from the directors' branch in response to this. The Globes sure spent a lot of time focusing on Cooper's face that night, as he kept losing award after award.
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Post by Pavan on Jan 8, 2019 17:44:38 GMT
Malek won't win. HFPA fell for Bohemian Rhapsody but The Academy won't. My guess is either Cooper or Bale will take the Oscar home.
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cherry68
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Post by cherry68 on Jan 8, 2019 17:45:51 GMT
Ms Movie Star... š wilcinema Not sure Bale 's speech really benefitted him though. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 8, 2019 17:55:33 GMT
Really don't know anymore and if it's between Malek and Bale I don't care. Cooper has had very little success so far despite seeming like the obvious choice out the gate so I'm not comfortable predicting him. He needs a win at SAG to get back in the conversation and I don't like his chances.
For the time being I'm sticking with Bale, who's had more success than Cooper so far.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Jan 8, 2019 18:30:10 GMT
Malek.
I've never bought the possibility of Bale winning simply because of who he's playing. I mean it's Dick Cheney vs. Freddie Mercury... backlash could hurt Malek's chances, but I suspect people's love for Queen and Mercury's iconic status will be sort of a protective shield. People really seem to love Bohemian Rhapsody too in spite of the poor critical reception.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 8, 2019 18:44:01 GMT
Malek. I've never bought the possibility of Bale winning simply because of who he's playing. I mean it's Dick Cheney vs. Freddie Mercury... backlash could hurt Malek's chances, but I suspect people's love for Queen and Mercury's iconic status will be sort of a protective shield. People really seem to love Bohemian Rhapsody too in spite of the poor critical reception. Yes, you're right about there being a protective shield around Bohemian Rhapsody. Mercury died too young in a tragic matter, but unlike with John Lennon, he didn't marry a Yoko Ono that people blame for breaking up The Beatles. Plus, Film Twitter would be up in arms over how he treated his first wife, Cynthia Lennon, and how he treated Sean in comparison to Julian. Unlike Elvis, he never was thought of as a joke, and I think that if a biopic were done on Elvis now, Film Twitter would be up in arms depending on how his underage relationship with Priscilla was handled, and of course the cultural appropriation aspect. Finally, I think a biopic of Michael Jackson would just be too difficult to do. You could make him sympathetic because of his father and maybe go the angle that he was being blackmailed by families, but I think that there would still be too much controversy. Of course, it doesn't mean that these biopics won't get made just that I don't think they'll have the same protective shield as BR does even if people really love the music of these artists. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 8, 2019 18:55:48 GMT
Malek is going to Eddie Redmayne this and win most likely.
There was a similar amount of denial on the board then too.
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Post by morton on Jan 8, 2019 19:02:46 GMT
Malek is going to Eddie Redmayne this and win most likely. There was a similar amount of denial on the board then too. Guilty. I'm still not over Michael Keaton losing.  I know I should have learned before that, and after that not to get so involved in the Oscars when something I love rarely ever wins, but I still do. I thought I wasn't going to let it get to me this year again, but then the Globes happened and all these guild nominations are causing me to rant and rave. At least I don't care that much if Cooper or anyone else loses to Malek. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 8, 2019 19:04:45 GMT
Malek is going to Eddie Redmayne this and win most likely. There was a similar amount of denial on the board then too. Guilty. I'm still not over Michael Keaton losing.Ā Ā I know I should have learned before that, and after that not to get so involved in the Oscars when something I love rarely ever wins, but I still do. I thought I wasn't going to let it get to me this year again, but then the Globes happened and all these guild nominations are causing me to rant and rave.Ā At least I don't care that much if Cooper or anyone else loses to Malek.Ā People need to learn to accept that the worst thing (at least in the opinion of film nerds) almost always happens. Itās easier that way. |
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Post by pendragon on Jan 8, 2019 19:12:12 GMT
Malek. They can never resist actors doing impressions of famous people.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 8, 2019 19:17:46 GMT
one thing to remember is that one of two winners of the Globe for this category almost always goes on to win the Oscar (going all the way back to 2000 there are only four examples where this didn't happen; Rourke in 2008, Nicholson in 2002, Crowe in 2001 and Hanks in 2000), which would make this a Malek-Bale race. I fully expect the SAGs to confirm that, effectively removing Cooper from the conversation.
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Post by DeepArcher on Jan 8, 2019 19:45:20 GMT
It's gonna be Malek. Anthony McCarten may be a hack screenwriter, but that also seems to make him a magic charm for writing roles that garner Lead Actor wins.
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 8, 2019 22:19:41 GMT
one thing to remember is that one of two winners of the Globe for this category almost always goes on to win the Oscar (going all the way back to 2000 there are only four examples where this didn't happen; Rourke in 2008, Nicholson in 2002, Crowe in 2001 and Hanks in 2000), which would make this a Malek-Bale race. I fully expect the SAGs to confirm that, effectively removing Cooper from the conversation. I fully expect Cooper to win there, effectively re-establishing him as the frontrunner.
btw, in your four examples, it's pretty telling that 3 of them actually happened IN A ROW, which means it's a useless stat if it can be ignored for 3 award seasons in a row. Besides, stats are almost always made to be broken in modern Oscar races. I agree SAG will seal the deal one way or the other, but I don't think the GG's matter AT ALL nowadays when it comes to the Oscars. |
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Jan 8, 2019 22:30:50 GMT
I'm predicting Malek for now, and I wouldn't be at all unhappy with it.
I'd rank him 3rd or 4th of the decades winners so far, should he join them. I'd rank Cooper last or second last.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 9, 2019 1:42:01 GMT
Sticking with Cooper for now.
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Post by ingmarhepburn on Jan 9, 2019 3:44:08 GMT
Definitely not Viggo, and hardly Cooper. I think it's between Bale and Malek, and I'm predicting the latter to win, at least for now. Bale already has an Oscar, and he's in no way overdue for a second one; plus, his film had mixed reviews and might even stay out of the Best Picture lineup. Yes, the reviews were even worst for Bohemian Rhapsody, but I think that won't hurt Malek's chances much. He's the best aspect of the film, and Oscar audiences will be rooting massively for him. Also, his film has better chances to be nominated for Best Picture.
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 9, 2019 5:45:43 GMT
Definitely not Viggo, and hardly Cooper. I think it's between Bale and Malek, and I'm predicting the latter to win, at least for now. Bale already has an Oscar, and he's in no way overdue for a second one; plus, his film had mixed reviews and might even stay out of the Best Picture lineup. Yes, the reviews were even worst for Bohemian Rhapsody, but I think that won't hurt Malek's chances much. He's the best aspect of the film, and Oscar audiences will be rooting massively for him. Also, his film has better chances to be nominated for Best Picture. HA! BR does NOT have a better chance for a BP nod than VICE. Hell, the massive GG backlash alone can quite possibly keep it from getting in. McKay, on the other hand, just got in at DGA. Which means even if he doesn't repeat there at the Oscars, the film has a very likely chance of making the BP line-up. People are underestimating the Singer backlash. It's fucking ABSURD (so many better reasons not to want a standard, merely okay bio pic like BH to get nominated), but it's very real. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2019 8:01:21 GMT
Depends on SAG but Rami Malek is a strong frontrunner for now.
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Jan 12, 2019 10:57:24 GMT
In a "normal" world I would say Malek ia the obvious choice...but due to the negative backlash for BR... ESPECIALLY after the Globes (I mean it had a negative backlash since its release) I think many people will hesitate to vote for anything about the film... so I guess the next in line is Bale with Cooper being slightly behind him because I dont think he will win Director but I do think they want to award him somehow for A Star Is Born.
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Jan 12, 2019 13:14:59 GMT
Rami Malek for sure.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 12, 2019 22:10:12 GMT
The term ābacklashā is very overused on this board. People need to calm down. Iāve seen people talk about a backlash against Roma. Some people not liking a movie thatās well received / winning awards is not backlash. Itās something that happens to literally every acclaimed movie.
So in regards to this case. There is zero evidence that backlash against a film effects the actors involved. La La Land won best actress and 3 BB won TWO acting awards. Film Twitter outrage is not that important. People being outraged about Singer is pretty irrelivant. This is not new information. People are just extra loud now because they donāt like the movie and it won the Drama Globe.
The average age of an academy voter is 63 years old. They donāt care about your internet outrage.
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Post by stephen on Jan 12, 2019 22:20:06 GMT
The term ābacklashā is very overused on this board. People need to calm down. Iāve seen people talk about a backlash against Roma. Some people not liking a movie thatās well received / winning awards is not backlash. Itās something that happens to literally every acclaimed movie. So in regards to this case. There is zero evidence that backlash against a film effects the actors involved. La La Land won best actress and 3 BB won TWO acting awards. Film Twitter outrage is not that important. People being outraged about Singer is pretty irrelivant. This is not new information. People are just extra loud now because they donāt like the movie and it won the Drama Globe. The average age of an academy voter is 63 years old. They donāt care about your internet outrage. There is a very strong chance it affected McDonagh winning screenplay, and that there might've been people putting La La Land at the bottom of their BP preferential ballot that gave Moonlight the edge. Yes, backlash can be grossly overstated, but there are cases where it has been seen to have affected a film that otherwise might have been able to weather it. We can't know entirely for sure unless we poll every Academy voter, but in this particular era of social media, that shit does seep through. Maybe a lot of the old Academy voters don't go on Twitter, but that outrage can and does spill into the news (both Green Book's controversies, for example, have been picked up on the wire by actual news outlets), so they may see it regardless. Those that love the film are still going to vote for it, but those who might've been on the fence about it might not. And with as close of a race as it's been for certain categories, that margin might be enough to affect a different outcome. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 12, 2019 22:29:42 GMT
The term ābacklashā is very overused on this board. People need to calm down. Iāve seen people talk about a backlash against Roma. Some people not liking a movie thatās well received / winning awards is not backlash. Itās something that happens to literally every acclaimed movie. So in regards to this case. There is zero evidence that backlash against a film effects the actors involved. La La Land won best actress and 3 BB won TWO acting awards. Film Twitter outrage is not that important. People being outraged about Singer is pretty irrelivant. This is not new information. People are just extra loud now because they donāt like the movie and it won the Drama Globe. The average age of an academy voter is 63 years old. They donāt care about your internet outrage. There is a very strong chance it affected McDonagh winning screenplay, and that there might've been people putting La La Land at the bottom of their BP preferential ballot that gave Moonlight the edge. Yes, backlash can be grossly overstated, but there are cases where it has been seen to have affected a film that otherwise might have been able to weather it. We can't know entirely for sure unless we poll every Academy voter, but in this particular era of social media, that shit does seep through. Maybe a lot of the old Academy voters don't go on Twitter, but that outrage can and does spill into the news (both Green Book's controversies, for example, have been picked up on the wire by actual news outlets), so they may see it regardless. Those that love the film are still going to vote for it, but those who might've been on the fence about it might not. And with as close of a race as it's been for certain categories, that margin might be enough to affect a different outcome. That is still just speculation though. I believe Peele would have won anyways and Moonlight was always a very strong contender.. I was mostly referring to how backlash effects actors because this is a best actor thread. As far as I can tell there has been no effect on the actors in these movies. I donāt see this effecting Malek or Ali at all. They might lose but I donāt think that will be why. |
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Post by stephen on Jan 12, 2019 22:35:14 GMT
There is a very strong chance it affected McDonagh winning screenplay, and that there might've been people putting La La Land at the bottom of their BP preferential ballot that gave Moonlight the edge. Yes, backlash can be grossly overstated, but there are cases where it has been seen to have affected a film that otherwise might have been able to weather it. We can't know entirely for sure unless we poll every Academy voter, but in this particular era of social media, that shit does seep through. Maybe a lot of the old Academy voters don't go on Twitter, but that outrage can and does spill into the news (both Green Book's controversies, for example, have been picked up on the wire by actual news outlets), so they may see it regardless. Those that love the film are still going to vote for it, but those who might've been on the fence about it might not. And with as close of a race as it's been for certain categories, that margin might be enough to affect a different outcome. That is still just speculation though. I believe Peele would have won anyways and Moonlight was always a very strong contender.. I was mostly referring to how backlash effects actors because this is a best actor thread. As far as I can tell there has been no effect on the actors in these movies. I donāt see this effecting Malek or Ali at all. They might lose but I donāt think that will be why. Yeah, but we'll never know for sure. Peele had an awful lot going for him, of course (as did Gerwig), but McDonagh might've lost a few crucial votes by those who might've seen the backlash to it. I don't think Malek will catch a whole lot of the heat from the Singer involvement. If anything, him being rumored to be the one behind Singer getting fired might actually benefit him. And I don't think Ali is winning his second so soon, as I feel his Globe was more of a makeup win for Moonlight. But we'll see how it shakes out. |
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I know I should have learned before that, and after that not to get so involved in the Oscars when something I love rarely ever wins, but I still do. I thought I wasn't going to let it get to me this year again, but then the Globes happened and all these guild nominations are causing me to rant and rave. At least I don't care that much if Cooper or anyone else loses to Malek. 
