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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 7, 2019 23:11:05 GMT
At first I thought a passion pick like Hawke, bound to get a lot of #1's, could sneak in, but he really needed SAG and with Malek (whom I initially thought was one of the most vulnerable) becoming a top contender (still NOT the front-runner, imo), I really don't see anybody breaking into the Top 5, they all seem pretty locked. Anyway, this year's line-up...
Christian Bale Bradley Cooper Viggo Mortensen Rami Malek John David Washington
...how would you rank them??
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Post by stephen on Jan 7, 2019 23:13:30 GMT
Haven't seen Malek yet.
1. Washington 2. Bale 3. Mortensen 4. Cooper
I'd slot Hawke at #1 or #2, even though I didn't like his film. None break into my personal lineups, though.
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Post by Kings_Requiem on Jan 7, 2019 23:18:23 GMT
Bale Malek Mortensen Washington Cooper
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rhodoraonline
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Post by rhodoraonline on Jan 7, 2019 23:23:03 GMT
I'm hoping Hawke does surprise replacing Washington. But it might not happen ... on the other hand Gosling brought me to tears this year, twice - someone I'd considered bland n overrated till last year. But that of course is wishful thinking :/
Anyways Bale Washington Mortensen Cooper
Malek NS yet
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 7, 2019 23:37:06 GMT
Haven't seen Malek yet. 1. Washington 2. Bale 3. Mortensen 4. Cooper I'd slot Hawke at #1 or #2, even though I didn't like his film. None break into my personal lineups, though. Wow, didn't know you were so down on Cooper. I know you were lukewarm on the film, and disliked his directing, but I thought you were positive about his performance. I'm seeing Bale tonight, but Coop's definitely my #1 of the 4 I've seen, and I think it's the most convincing & heartbreaking portrayal of alcoholism onscreen I've seen since Nic Cage in LEAVING LAS VEGAS (though nowhere near as all-time great as Cage, before the insults start, lol, but still the best since), and probably his best performance yet. His close-up facial expression the last time we see him before "the big moment" haunted me for weeks after I saw it. Hands down his best scene in the movie, though the one in the car with Elliot was a close second.
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Post by DeepArcher on Jan 7, 2019 23:40:08 GMT
I wouldn't quite call this "inevitable," Hawke certainly has a great shot at getting in as the unrivaled critical favorite, even if he is outside-looking-in right now. Wouldn't count out Dafoe as a potential spoiler, either. Though if these five are our BAFTA group, then it'll be much closer to being locked-in.
Anyway: 1. Washington 2. Mortensen 3. Malek 4. Bale 5. Cooper
Such a weird line-up for me, because I think all five performances are at least good, but I don't rank any of them *that* highly and I doubt any of them would make my personal line-ups by the year's end. They're all almost on the same level for me. So, it's a group that could be much better (throw in Hawke and Dafoe!), but it also could be way worse.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 7, 2019 23:56:34 GMT
I've actually seen all of these.
1. Cooper 2. Bale 3. Washington 4. Malek 5. Mortensen
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Post by stephen on Jan 8, 2019 0:00:39 GMT
Wow, didn't know you were so down on Cooper. I know you were lukewarm on the film, and disliked his directing, but I thought you were positive about his performance. I'm seeing Bale tonight, but Coop's definitely my #1 of the 4 I've seen, and I think it's the most convincing & heartbreaking portrayal of alcoholism onscreen I've seen since Nic Cage in LEAVING LAS VEGAS (though nowhere near as all-time great as Cage, before the insults start, lol, but still the best since), and probably his best performance yet. His close-up facial expression the last time we see him before "the big moment" haunted me for weeks after I saw it. Hands down his best scene in the movie, though the one in the car with Elliot was a close second. I'm not so much down on his performance, because on its own merits it's decent, but I just like the other guys more, and 2018 is a surprisingly strong year for the category if you ignore what awards bodies have been gravitating towards. Can't agree with Cooper being as good as you say, but I definitely see the appeal. It just feels to me like he's not breaking any new ground, instead going through the motions on any boilerplate "alcoholic" performance, and there are too many holes in the film's internal logic that make me buy his boozing being as damaging as it's ultimately depicted to be. I think the best scene in the film is the part with Elliott in the car, because I did like that Cooper decided to show some restraint and not launch into some big baity spiel to tug on the heartstrings, and let the whole thing linger on Elliott's face. But it was still insanely rushed, which I fault more with Cooper's direction, which I am most definitely down on.
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Post by Sharbs on Jan 8, 2019 0:00:39 GMT
I think that Hawke is just as likely as Washington...? so I'm including him
1. Hawke*** (my win) 2. Malek* (currently, in lineup) 3. Bale* (currently, in lineup)
4. Washington 5. Cooper
6. Mortensen
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 8, 2019 0:42:30 GMT
1. Cooper 2. Mortensen 3. Bale 4. Washington
Haven’t seen Malek yet
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Post by JangoB on Jan 8, 2019 0:46:43 GMT
Haven't seen Malek yet but I'll include Hawke instead (who I think still has a chance to get in):
1. Hawke 2. Mortensen 3. Bale 4. Cooper 5. Washington
I like'em all.
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Post by Ryan_MYeah on Jan 8, 2019 1:24:10 GMT
Cooper (That’s probably controversial, but I thought he was fantastic) Bale Washington Malek Mortensen
I only think the first two are great, while the rest are just good. But someone please toss some love to Gosling, Foster, Diggs.
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Post by futuretrunks on Jan 8, 2019 4:30:59 GMT
1. Gosling 2. Mortensen 3. Bale
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Post by jakob on Jan 8, 2019 4:45:08 GMT
I actually think that Mortensen may be the most vulnerable. He just hasn't ignited the passion that others have and let's not forget he's made some comments in the press that have really gotten him in hot water (although most have been misinterpreted). Washington may be safe in especially with stronger diversity in the Academy voting block (like his father last year). Hawke is the passionate critics' pick. The other three are locked in fighting for the win.
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Post by stephen on Jan 8, 2019 4:46:58 GMT
I actually think that Mortensen may be the most vulnerable. He just hasn't ignited the passion that others have and let's not forget he's made some comments in the press that have really gotten him in hot water (although most have been misinterpreted). Washington may be safe in especially with stronger diversity in the Academy voting block (like his father last year). Hawke is the passionate critics' pick. The other three are locked in fighting for the win. I think Mortensen's individual controversy has largely subsided, although I do think the film is about to get walloped by some backlash. I can definitely see Hawke squeezing in -- he's a multiple nominee with a lot of friends in the industry, and he seems to fit the bill of a critical favorite who sneaks some crucial passion voting at the right time.
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Post by jakob on Jan 8, 2019 4:48:54 GMT
I actually think that Mortensen may be the most vulnerable. He just hasn't ignited the passion that others have and let's not forget he's made some comments in the press that have really gotten him in hot water (although most have been misinterpreted). Washington may be safe in especially with stronger diversity in the Academy voting block (like his father last year). Hawke is the passionate critics' pick. The other three are locked in fighting for the win. I think Mortensen's individual controversy has largely subsided, although I do think the film is about to get walloped by some backlash. I can definitely see Hawke squeezing in -- he's a multiple nominee with a lot of friends in the industry, and he seems to fit the bill of a critical favorite who sneaks some crucial passion voting at the right time. Mortensen is giving me Hanks 2014 vibes. So safe for a nomination for such a long time that when the competition grows toward the end, people just forget to nominate you.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 8, 2019 6:48:55 GMT
only seen Cooper and Washington so far. Really like both of them.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 8, 2019 6:54:40 GMT
Cooper (That’s probably controversial, but I thought he was fantastic) Right?! I really don't understand the backlash for this performance. It's sort of a hard-sell at first because Cooper's lower register stands out like a sore thumb for anyone that's seen his other stuff, but he commits to it and sells the hell out of it. Yes he's channeling late-career Jeff Bridges but he's also nailing it. Surprised to see how divisive he was, even for folks that didn't care for the movie. And it's such a showy performance I was expecting him to steamroll the competition. I'm sure in a different year he would have. It's been a weird season...
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 8, 2019 7:09:37 GMT
I think Mortensen's individual controversy has largely subsided, although I do think the film is about to get walloped by some backlash. I can definitely see Hawke squeezing in -- he's a multiple nominee with a lot of friends in the industry, and he seems to fit the bill of a critical favorite who sneaks some crucial passion voting at the right time. Mortensen is giving me Hanks 2014 vibes. So safe for a nomination for such a long time that when the competition grows toward the end, people just forget to nominate you. I agree with stephen that I think Mortensen's backlash is forgotten now, but I do think he could possibly be in more danger than people think even with Green Book looking stronger now. Bale, Cooper, and Malek all have some kind of hook, imo. Bale is how he transformed himself again. Cooper's is how he took a project and then took a chance in someone with very little acting experience that most people had no faith in and surpassed all expectations. Malek's is that he's playing one of the most famous musicians of all time. I don't know that Mortensen has that "hook" that the others do even if Green Book is a beloved film. I think Washington would be the most vulnerable, but that might work to his advantage, as voters will think that he could be in danger, and put him in their #1 spot thinking that Mortensen is safe. It reminds me of when Amy Adams missed for Arrival. Stone was in the Best Picture frontrunner plus won the Volpi Cup and other awards plus did her own singing and dancing. Huppert was the legend who had never been nominated before who swept all the top critics. Portman was portraying one of the most well known woman of the modern age. Streep was Streep. That left the final spot between Adams and Negga. Adams seemed like she would be safe because she hit everywhere, and Arrival was also expected to do well in other categories like Best Picture, but she ended up missing out in the end. Her prior nominations could have also worked against her there too. If she wasn't winning for Arrival, then why give her another nomination, when a newcomer like Negga could use the exposure more. While Mortensen has only been nominated twice, he's not a newbie, and he's not in a position to win either. Of course, I think that it's most likely at this point that SAG 5 remains the same even with Hawke winning the trifecta and so many other awards and being a previous nominee, because he'll probably be the only nominee from First Reformed. Doesn't seem like the industry is going for the film at all despite A24's campaign about how Paul Schrader had never been nominated before. Even the Globes ignored Hawke over Dafoe and Hedges. BlacKkKlansman seems to be doing very well with the industry so far. Even if it only wins WGA and Best Adapted Screenplay, at least, so far, it's hit pretty much every place that it was expected to. There was some backlash earlier back in the summer, but that's been pretty much forgotten, and now Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book, and Vice have to deal with that more. Plus, never underestimate the powers of nepotism in the industry. Washington was very savvy in taking his dad with him to the Globes, and several times during the telecast, it would get a close-up of the elder Washington. I know Kate Hudson ended up losing for Almost Famous, but she won a Globe and got major mileage out of being Goldie's daughter. With Washington, I think he was smart in not using his dad too early on, but now that voting opens soon, it was the perfect time to remind other voters who is dad exactly at an event where it would get maximum exposure knowing that BlacKkKlansman wasn't favored to win anything anyways at the Globes, and that Hawke is breathing right down his neck for that last spot. Further, just seeing how much his dad was so friendly with everyone last night drove the point home even more that the son is Hollywood royalty. I mean freaking Mary Hart of all people gushed about how she remembered JDW as a young boy and how it's so amazing to see him as an actor now like his father at the Palm Springs International Film Festival where she was the Emcee. So if JDW can get the kind of reaction from her, I could see him getting enough votes based on that factor to get him the last spot. Of course, race could also be a factor in Washington's favor. Malek is Egyptian, but if voters do shower a lot of nominations on Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book, and they don't nominate any women directors again, along with whole Kevin Hart and popular film debacles, at least with Washington nominated, and perhaps 3 poc winning in Ali, King, and Malek, they can avoid one controversy.
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Post by speeders on Jan 8, 2019 12:40:08 GMT
Christian Bale John David Washington Bradley Cooper Viggo Mortensen
None come close to my personal line-ups. Such a strong film year shaping into a shitty award's season with lame acting line-ups. Still holding out hope for Hawe. In a just world, Gosling would be steamrolling the competition.
N/S Rami Malek
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2019 12:54:37 GMT
Great 1. Washington Pretty good 2. Malek 3. Mortensen 4. Bale 5. Cooper
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 8, 2019 12:56:08 GMT
Viggo Mortensen John David Washington Bradley Cooper Rami Malek
NS: Bale
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 8, 2019 12:56:14 GMT
I'm really not interested in even watching any of these inevitable nominees' films. What a terribly boring lineup.
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Post by jakob on Jan 8, 2019 15:46:04 GMT
I think Mortensen's individual controversy has largely subsided, although I do think the film is about to get walloped by some backlash. I can definitely see Hawke squeezing in -- he's a multiple nominee with a lot of friends in the industry, and he seems to fit the bill of a critical favorite who sneaks some crucial passion voting at the right time. Mortensen is giving me Hanks 2014 vibes. So safe for a nomination for such a long time that when the competition grows toward the end, people just forget to nominate you. Just woke up from a dream where the nominations came out and it was Malek that actually shockingly missed a Best Actor nomination yet the film still got a Best Picture nom, which given some of the Academy’s histories with occasional weird inconsistencies, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. COULD IT HAVE BEEN A PREMONITION? We’ll see in two weeks.
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Post by bob-coppola on Jan 8, 2019 16:05:16 GMT
I still think Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book are bound to a backlash. Green Book because it's pretty average and BR because of all the upcoming controversies that people just can't ignore for much longer and because it's pretty terrible if you're not a Queen blind fanboy.
Malek won the Globe and that's huge, but there's no overlap between AMPAS and HFPA voters. Yeah, most years this decade both of the GG winners went on to collect Oscar noms, but just last year we had James Franco of all people getting a cold shoulder because of controversies. The fact that Malek can't help but put his foot on his mouth everytime he's asked about something "outrageous" could put him in danger if people remember Bryan Singer directed his movie.
Mortensen is safe, his movie is pretty shallow but there's nothing about it to make people offended. It's just that I don't feel there's much passion, so he could be in danger as well. I think same goes for Washington, but being the only black dude on the race gives him a boost. If any of these scenarios do come true, I expect Hawke to come through.
Anyways, my personal ranking is: 1. Cooper 2. Washington 3. Mortensen 4. Bale 5. Malek
I at least liked all of them but Malek.
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