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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2019 19:50:19 GMT
Curious to see what you guys are thinking... First word from TIFF was super strong, but the late release and slow pacing seem to be hindering it now... Still, those who love it love it with #1 ballot placement gusto.
PICTURE
SUPPORTING ACTRESS, Regina King
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CINEMATOGRAPHY
COSTUME DESIGN
ORIGINAL SCORE
PRODUCTION DESIGN
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Post by stephen on Jan 6, 2019 19:55:47 GMT
Best Picture
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Score
Maybe Best Cinematography if it can get in at ASC tomorrow.
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Post by Atrocity-Querelle on Jan 6, 2019 19:56:39 GMT
Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, & Original Score. So basically Mudbound 2.0, which is unfortunate, but also unsurprising given its underperformance so far. I was holding onto my hope for it at least getting a PGA nomination, which seemed absolutely crucial since it's more or less guaranteed to bomb at BAFTA, but it missed there. DGA is doubtful too.  |
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Post by stephen on Jan 6, 2019 20:01:10 GMT
Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, & Original Score. So basically Mudbound 2.0, which is unfortunate, but also unsurprising given its underperformance so far. I was holding onto my hope for it at least getting a PGA nomination, which seemed absolutely crucial since it's more or less guaranteed to bomb at BAFTA, but it missed there. DGA is doubtful too. It missing PGA isn't a great sign, and I certainly don't expect it to make DGA either, but it's certainly the sort of film that can benefit from that 5% rule. Think Phantom Thread last year -- a lot of people expected it to miss after being snubbed at both PGA and DGA. |
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Post by Atrocity-Querelle on Jan 6, 2019 20:10:59 GMT
Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, & Original Score. So basically Mudbound 2.0, which is unfortunate, but also unsurprising given its underperformance so far. I was holding onto my hope for it at least getting a PGA nomination, which seemed absolutely crucial since it's more or less guaranteed to bomb at BAFTA, but it missed there. DGA is doubtful too. It missing PGA isn't a great sign, and I certainly don't expect it to make DGA either, but it's certainly the sort of film that can benefit from that 5% rule. Think Phantom Thread last year -- a lot of people expected it to miss after being snubbed at both PGA and DGA. I am hopeful that that'll be the case, even after all the evidence to the contrary (so far), but I'm not sure comparing Barry Jenkins to PTA is quite appropriate. PTA has been going in a less and less commercial direction with each successive film, but still racking up nominations regardless because of his immense reputation & body of work generating goodwill with a devoted contingent of voters. Jenkins, as much as I adore the guy, is only on his third film (the first of which is rather obscure and unknown by the general public), following up a Best Picture winner, which is always a difficult zone to be in. I am worried he is experiencing a quasi-sophomore slump, sad to say . I always felt that First Man was going to underperform because of La La Land being so polarizing and dominant during awards season in 2016, leading to a sort of negative afterglow effect. That prediction ended up being very correct, and I felt the same way about Beale Street, albeit not to such a severe extent. I hope to be proven wrong, but we'll see... |
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Post by dadsburgers on Jan 6, 2019 20:24:51 GMT
Picture
Supporting Actress (Regina King)***
Adapted Screenplay
Cinematography
Production Design (maybe)
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 6, 2019 20:26:51 GMT
It missing PGA isn't a great sign, and I certainly don't expect it to make DGA either, but it's certainly the sort of film that can benefit from that 5% rule. Think Phantom Thread last year -- a lot of people expected it to miss after being snubbed at both PGA and DGA. I am hopeful that that'll be the case, even after all the evidence to the contrary (so far), but I'm not sure comparing Barry Jenkins to PTA is quite appropriate. PTA has been going in a less and less commercial direction with each successive film, but still racking up nominations regardless because of his immense reputation & body of work generating goodwill with a devoted contingent of voters. Jenkins, as much as I adore the guy, is only on his third film (the first of which is rather obscure and unknown by the general public), following up a Best Picture winner, which is always a difficult zone to be in. I am worried he is experiencing a quasi-sophomore slump, sad to say . I always felt that First Man was going to underperform because of La La Land being so polarizing and dominant during awards season in 2016, leading to a sort of negative afterglow effect. That prediction ended up being very correct, and I felt the same way about Beale Street, albeit not to such a severe extent. I hope to be proven wrong, but we'll see... also had the narrative of being DD-L's last performance. IBSCT does have the narrative of being Jenkins's follow-up to Moonlight, but as you mentioned, it can work both ways. It makes people more interested in your next project, but it can also lead to expectations perhaps being too high, or be something that people who resented the earlier success can go after. |
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Post by DeepArcher on Jan 6, 2019 20:40:12 GMT
Best Picture (holding out hope, and I agree with Stephen that this sneaks in by benefiting from the 5% rule)
Best Supporting Actress ~ Regina King
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Original Score
I’m currently predicting King and Britell to win, but I’m not totally confident with either so that could change easily. I also think Jenkins has a shot at sneaking into the BD line-up in an unexpected PTA way, but I’m not gonna predict it quite just yet, especially because I’m not sure at whose expense he’d get in (hopefully Cooper, but that’s wishful thinking).
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Post by JangoB on Jan 6, 2019 20:42:45 GMT
Best Picture
Best Supporting Actress - Regina King
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Original Score
So a modest scenario. But I can see the two extremes happening too - massive Oscar love with Jenkins getting a nod for directing and some extra techs (Production Design, Costumes) or a big snub in BP with a minimal number of nods.
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Post by bruinjoe96 on Jan 6, 2019 20:57:26 GMT
Best Picture (If there's 9 nominees)
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Score
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Post by quetee on Jan 7, 2019 4:31:20 GMT
Supporting Actress
Adapted Screenplay
Original Score
Costumes
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2019 4:43:34 GMT
Supporting Actress Adapted Screenplay Original Score Costumes Have you seen it yet? |
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Post by quetee on Jan 7, 2019 4:51:04 GMT
Supporting Actress Adapted Screenplay Original Score Costumes Have you seen it yet? Nope. Gonna get to finally see it next week. It's finally near me. |
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