What’s winning Visual Effects?

I still think First Man has a real shot, but the safe money is on one of the Marvels. Black Panther’s not always convincing, but it is always stylish, and the Picture love could give it a boost. But Infinity War has A LOT of effects. A LOT of stylish, convincing, and awesome effects.

So at this point, I’m banking on Infinity War.

YIKES at Infinity War winning this so far. Thought the VFX were quite frankly awful and I honestly never really considered that it may win here. But looking at the field, I guess it should be considered a real threat, as it's easily the most showy candidate. Ready Player One was slightly more convincing in this field and would make a better winner, and is similarly showy enough to be a threat for the win, but I don't think the film itself makes a big enough splash to be the winner. 

For now I'm still gonna stubbornly predict First Man which is probably more motivated by my own personal bias. Black Panther could obviously win this as it's generally the biggest contender here, but more praise has been given to its production and costume design and such, and those are the areas that the film is more likely to be awarded in. First Man's VFX weren't too flashy but they were handily the most convincing of the year, and I think that mixed with the fact that it should still be a big threat in a number of tech categories will propel it to the win. Plus, the Academy has awarded some pretty lowkey stuff in the recent past -- Ex Machina obviously, and I would argue that Blade Runner 2049's most impressive VFX achievements were on the subtle side despite the grand scope of the entire film. So, really, I see no reason why First Man couldn't win against "bigger" competition. 

Black Panther because I feel like it'll sweep every category it gets nominated (except BP and perhaps BD and BSA if Coogler and Jordan get in).

no idea I just really hope it isn't Black Panther. Marvel's overuse and poor utilization of VFX is the perfect example of more being less and Black Panther was certainly no exception. The final fight was a huge disappointment precisely because of the wonky effects.

I have a sneaking suspicion that it'll win though just because of how much momentum it has. I'm gonna have an eye-roll prepared.

Much like Best Picture, this one also feels totally up in the air. I can see it going to any one of three possibilities (or maybe four; I hadn't even entertained Ready Player One as a potential winner).

Black Panther is looking like a top 5 contender for BP and might be the closest thing we have to a technical marvel this year, so it makes sense that voters might overlook (or maybe just downright not notice) its shoddier moments and just tick another below-the-line box to go along with possible wins in Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and maybe Sound. They could be lazy like that.

On the other hand, Infinity War was a massive box-office behemoth and is a lot heavier on VFX than Black Panther, whose visual spectacle might be chalked up more to the Wakandan world-building engineered by the production/costume designers, so a Visual Effects win for the former could be their way of spreading the wealth and anointing Marvel's biggest worldwide grosser in addition to what will likely be a showering of love for their domestic champion as well. (Hopefully they don't, though, because Infinity War's effects are a dreadful eyesore and would make it the category's least deserving winner in forever. Even Black Panther would be a better pick.)

Then there's First Man, which seems to have fizzled out lately but could realistically back and emerge as a viable alternative to the big blockbusters, Ex Machina-style. I generally hesitate to suggest vote-splitting as a possible outcome because I see the term get tossed around way too loosely, but that might just be the case this year, given that Black Panther and Infinity War are not only from the same genre, distributor and budget range, they're also from the same damn cinematic universe. With the two Marvel horses duking it out and competing for the same support, a viable alternative might surge ahead, much like how the category turned out back in 2015. If a $15 million indie that was a "yeah, maybe that gets a nod"-status contender in the weeks/months leading up to the nominations' announcement can beat a beloved space-set BP nominee from Ridley Scott, a bona-fide Star Wars phenomenon and two BP/BD heavy-hitters with a combined total of 22 nominations and 9 wins, then so can First Man.

Right now I'll go with Black Panther, with First Man as an alternative.

It doesn't even look like a live action movie to me. The entire film looks and feels like a two and a half hour video game cutscene.