Final Predictions for the Acting Categories - Post 'em here!

Will probably update these again after the Globes, Critics' Choice, and BAFTA nominations, but right now I'm thinking...

Best Actress
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Outside-looking-in: Toni Collette, Hereditary; Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Best Actor
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Outside-looking-in: John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman; Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite 

Outside-looking-in: Claire Foy, First Man; Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased; Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots; Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (fingers crossed!)

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman 
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

Outside-looking-in: Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Only real change for what I'm predicting is that I'm no longer predicting Blunt for Poppins but now have her for Quiet Place. With Poppins underwhelming I'm starting to think it'll only be a major player in the tech categories but will be shut-out of the major categories. A Quiet Place meanwhile is emerging as a very real threat, and I think it gets in for Original Screenplay (at the expense of both of A24's contenders, unfortunately) and possibly for Best Picture, which boosts Blunt's chances considerably. Plus I think she has a very real shot at winning SAG in the category and could definitely be nominated by BAFTA as well. Obviously this feels like Blunt's year to finally get in, it's just a question of where it will be (double nomination seems unlikely considering how competitive both categories are), and right now A Quiet Place feels like it has the edge. 

Actor in a Leading Role

Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Actress in a Leading Role

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams, Vice
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians

I'd say the 6th in each respective category is Washington, Aparicio, Chalamet, & Blunt. And both of my predictions are coattail-types, Jordan due to the upward trajectory of Black Panther and Chalamet's film being so dead-on-arrival and Yeoh just because I'm a stubborn bastard and I love her to bits, haha. But also her film is over performing everywhere and I have it in for Picture & Screenplay, so I think it'll be widely seen enough for her to slide in, under the radar. I will most likely end up eating crow come nominations morning, but I refuse to take her out of my predictions, even though SAG should've been an easy get.

Actress
Emily Blunt
Glenn Close
Olivia Colman
Lady Gaga
Melissa McCarthy

Actor
Christian Bale
Bradley Cooper
Ethan Hawke
Rami Malek
Viggo Mortensen

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams
Emily Blunt
Regina King
Emma Stone
Rachel Weisz

Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali
Timothée Chalamet
Adam Driver
Sam Elliott
Richard E. Grant

Like stabcaesar, I think that the actress and supporting actor categories will just follow SAG.

For the former, it's possible that Aparicio could end up making it in because of the passion for Roma, but right now I'm still predicting Blunt because that really hasn't happened at the critics' awards despite Roma winning those by a large margin. If she places at NSFC and/or gets a BAFTA nomination, I'll definitely reconsider. Blunt is probably the weakest here, but I think only Colman and Gaga are locks at the moment.

For the latter, I know Jordan has hit quite a few regionals, but Chalamet has hit every major precursor so far and isn't really that far behind Jordan on the regionals list either. Possibly Jordan could surprise because I do think that Chalamet's age works against him especially in being a lone nominee, but again like Aparicio, Jordan didn't show up at the Globes and SAG despite Black Panther showing up in Best Motion Picture Drama and SAG Ensemble respectively.

In Best Actor, I can't see Hawke missing with the type of year that he's had; although, perhaps the talk I've heard of First Reformed being a tough screener to watch could end up hurting him. John David Washington is probably be the weakest link despite hitting the Globe and SAG, his film being top 5 maybe even top 3, and his famous father, but I'm wondering if Mortensen could end up missing instead. Green Book is top 5 perhaps even top 3 too, and he'll possibly will win the Globe, but compared to Bale, Cooper, and Malek, I haven't really seen any passion for him compared to those 3. Obviously people love the film and Mortensen and Ali together, but he doesn't have the transformation factor of Bale, doesn't have the narrative of Cooper, and isn't playing someone as famous as Freddie Mercury. It's probably just wishful thinking by me as it's most likely Washington that misses.

In Best Supporting Actress, I think King missing SAG was just a weird anomaly. Perhaps there were a lot of voters that didn't get their If Beale Street Could Talk screeners on time like those that tweeted about it, or maybe since it was sent out late compared to the other screeners, it just wasn't something that actors wanted to watch right away unlike Vice which I could see would be appealing because of the A-List cast involved and based on The Big Short. I think IBSCT should have been popular screener because of the success of Moonlight, but not having watched the film yet, perhaps the nominating committee did but maybe it's slow at first and they put off watching it until after the deadline. At any rate, I don't know about winning anymore unless she wins the Globe, gets nominated at BAFTA which seems unlikely, and the rest of the race is split, but I think she'll get her first Oscar nomination at least.

That last spot is a doozy though. First, I thought it would just default to Foy, and then I thought maybe Robbie would get it because of the deglam factor. Plus, for me after seeing Mary, Queen of Scots, I thought she did very well, and I preferred her performance to Foy's. Now I'm predicting Blunt to get double nominations though since Mary Poppins Returns seems to have rebounded from the first few days where it seemed like a disappointment. I know it's very difficult to achieve double nominations especially when one isn't in the running to win in either category, but she's been on the cusp of being nominated since 2006, and everyone seems to really love her and her husband in he industry that it finally feels like her year to me.

Why should we do “final” predictions this early before even the BAFTA’s announce?

Not final but going with these for now. Also there are always some random wildcard noms and everybody seems to be playing it pretty safe with these.

Best Actor:
Bale
Cooper
Mortensen
Malek
Washington

Best Actress:
Gaga
Coleman
Close
Pike
Davis

Best Supporting Actor:
Ali
Grant
Driver
Elliot
Chalamet

Best Supporting Actress:
Adams
King
Kidman
Stone
Weisz