My Pre-2019 Oscar Predictions

Very interesting stuff, I agree wholeheartedly about the top 3 you have for Director, I've been calling a Director win for Cooper since day one. It happened with Beatty, it happened with Costner, it happened with Eastwood, and it's going to happen again, simply put. If you are predicting A Star Is Born for Best Picture, then the empirical evidence shows it will go hand-in-hand with a win for Director rather than Actor. If he becomes the frontrunner there, then they can spread the wealth by giving Bohemian Rhapsody some representation in the Actor category. Since that film is overperforming so far beyond what anyone initially though was possible, I think the current trajectory it is on makes a win in a big 8 category likely. This outcome makes the most sense to me by far.

I disagree on Vice, I have it coming up short for both Picture and Screenplay, for Picture I have it in 11th and for Screenplay I have it at 7th. I do agree about A Quiet Place getting into Original Screenplay though, and I feel quite confident about that. As for Adapted, I have Crazy Rich Asians in place of Black Panther, which seems like an easier sell for the Academy. It is this year's My Big Fat Greek Wedding (which hella would have gotten in with an expanded field), I think, and I feel pretty damn good about its prospects of a Picture nomination, so I have it getting in there as a way to legitimize its nomination. Black Panther is just too genre-y and predictable to make the final cut, there's not really much of a subversive element there like there usually has to be for something in the sci-fi/fantasy genres to get in.

For the acting categories, I have Hawke getting in over Washington & I'm going to call the fifth slot for Supporting Actress for Yeoh against my better judgement, even though it's quite a reach after her Globe + SAG snubs. The film seems to be surging at the right time though, and I'd wager she was probably super close with both awards bodies, based on how popular her film was at each of those. The Supporting Actor category is certainly giving me pause, as having it mirror the SAG lineup 5 for 5 feels wrong, but my confidence in anyone outside of that field is too low at the moment. I had Hoult pegged for Globe + BAFTA nominations, and I felt pretty good about that prediction, but the film is underperforming too much for me to feel good about calling a coattail nomination for it, so he's out. Jordan I never took seriously.

Movies like First Reformed and even Cold War may do a lot better at the Oscars than with the guilds... rumor has it there's a lot of love for Pawlikowski in the directors' branch.