Did the SAG awards kill Green Book, Roma, and The Favourite?

No. As you said, "The Shape of Water" just won without the SAG ensemble nod. In the last years these statistics have been broken constantly so no, those movies aren't dead.

Here's the problem:

TSOW was the only Best Picture nominee with nominations for director, screenplay, and editing. Billboards was missing the director nomination. Basically those two stats cancelled each other out. Get Out and Lady Bird failed to score an editing nomination and had less than 5 nods.

If we go back to 1995, Braveheart had the WGA win and Oscar nominations for director, screenplay, and editing. A13 lacked a Best Director nomination. Babe didn't win any major Guilds. S&S didn't score a Best Director nomination.

I don't think it matters that much. Crazy Rich Asians made the SAG 5 and I'd say it has zero shot at an Oscar nomination.

As for Roma, all of its actors are unknown, and it would seem that SAG voters are illiterate - Bardem, Riva, Cotillard, Huppert were all snubbed too despite considerable buzz.

I think Best Picture is more unpredictable this year than any of the recent ones. It's hard for me to believe that in this year of politically conscious filmmaking, the Academy is gonna go for the safest bland choice of ASIB, like really, a Fourth remake all-white same old, same old ? If La La Land had one, I'd totally believe ASIB's shot but a black gay indie gilm won that year guys. The Academy is more open to embrace diversity now and with so many choices of excellent films breaking the mold in some way are available this year.

If they didn't go myopic for LLL, they won't go myopic for ASIB. My 2 cents :shrug:

The race remains wide open.

Birdman won without a typically vital Editing nod.

Spotlight won with only one additional win. (EDIT: and losing PGA)

Moonlight won in the face of a foregone conclusion.

And as you said, Shape of Water won without an Ensemble nod.

We’ve been all about breaking trends up in this biz-nitch. I think any of those three (especially Roma and The Favourite) will be just fine.

Exactly.

I've said this before, but stats don't dictate the race. Nobody chooses who they'll vote for by listing precursor noms and checking off which films meet which criteria. It's not a game of bingo, and the truth is 99% of the Academy probably isn't paying attention to any of that.

Stats are relevant because they show us where to look in order to gauge which contenders have true support, but they never tell the whole story on their own. The narratives evolve; some films rise while others fizzle out before the precursors have the time to catch up. Beginning with Ben Affleck's infamous snub, the past six seasons all saw significant trends get broken one after the other, to the point where every single BP nominee this past season had at least one historically weighty snub to its disadvantage (The Shape of Water missing SAG Ensemble, Three Billboards missing Director, Get Out and Lady Bird missing Editing etc.). That's only going to continue to happen more and more frequently from here on out, especially as the Academy's voting body becomes increasingly diverse: with their demographics being so fractured, many different types of films will be getting support (see a zeitgeisty horror satire about race and a quirky teen comedy from Greta Gerwig standing shoulder to shoulder with a safe-as-hell Winston Churchill biopic and a Spielberg/Streep/Hanks exultation of the nobility of journalism; a few years ago, the former would probably have to content themselves with throwaway Screenplay mentions while the latter would land a combined total of 20 nods), which in turn makes the nominations more spread out and prone to stat breaking. I'd say that knowing how to read the race and understanding what each film individually has going for and against it are more useful tools than religiously holding on to mathematical data which, while certainly very telling and appreciated, isn't the end all be all of what is ultimately a completely subjective and unpredictable hobby.

The only televised awards whose nominations we have to go off of at this point are SAG and the Globes. (The BFCA? I don't know her.) A Star is Born, Black Panther and BlacKkKlansman all did tremendously well and are very much in the running for the win to varying degrees, but then again so are the three titles the OP mentioned. Roma is by far the most critically acclaimed film of the year and is getting major "groundbreaker" talk; it was ineligible for the main category at the Globes but totally would've made it if it were allowed to, judging by the Director/Screenplay love; and it was never going to do well at SAG, meaning its snubs there are hardly shocking. It's also plenty agreeable, which means it might perform well on a preferential ballot, and could easily reap the rewards if the voters feel inclined to send a message with their Picture choice. The Favourite's only misstep was missing SAG Ensemble, but it still has Searchlight working hard in its favor, is still poised to make a killing at BAFTA and still has spectacular box-office numbers adding to its buzz. Green Book is the one I feel took the biggest hit by missing SAG Ensemble, because it's been out in wide release for a while (which neither Roma nor The Favourite have) and should've played like gangbusters to a more populist voting group, but it's still agreeable enough that I can't write it off 100%. 

So no, the SAG noms didn't kill anything. Maybe those films have less industry support than we predicted at first, but not only do we not have sufficient data at this point to know for sure that that's the case, there's still 2 whole months left to go. Many will rise and many will drop, so to say anything is locked or dead is nuts.

This exactly. The voters of the Academy don't look and say to themselves: Oh, this has a SAG ensemble nod I vote for this.

Stats only help to see interferences between the oscars and other awards. We can say: Usually the taste of the oscars matchs up the most with the PGA voters or the DGA voters or whatever. And if they like the film overall it's likely they also give them director or screenplay nods (because those are usually the two single most important aspects of film) and so we can tell using it the other way around: the films need to have those director and screenplay nods. Etc.

Yes to The Favorite and GB. No to Roma. I don't think it will win but it's pretty much second place to ASIB.

ASIB is similar to the bona-fide BP winner we've had before, even in the current decade. The only obstacle I see for it is that it may not even win a single Oscar in the big 5 categories if Malek becomes too big of a threat to Cooper.