The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Dec 12, 2018 15:56:35 GMT
A Star is Born
Roma
BlackPanther
BlacKKKlansman
Vice
Bohemian Rhapsody
Green Book
The Favorite
I think If Beale Street Could Talk is out even if they had screeners issues with SAG. Vice comes out later than it and didn't seem to be troublesome unless you can attribute the lack of an ensemble nod. And with 3 black films, it will have to struggle to get the typical faux progressive nods
BOHEMIAN Rhapsody is in imo. It resonates as a PGA nominee since it was a huge hit. Populism appears to be the arching theme this year. It and Black Panther will make the masses tune in.
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Post by JangoB on Dec 12, 2018 16:52:26 GMT
Black Panther
A Star is Born
Roma
BlacKkKlansman
Green Book
The Favourite
Vice
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Dec 12, 2018 17:09:41 GMT
Black Panther isn't winning bro
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Post by notacrook on Dec 12, 2018 18:28:29 GMT
Roughly ranked in order of likelihood:
A Star is Born
The Favourite
Roma
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Bohemian Rhapsody
Vice
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Post by taranofprydain on Dec 12, 2018 18:31:20 GMT
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
A Star is Born
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Post by stephen on Dec 12, 2018 18:34:52 GMT
Hmmm...
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
I think PGA will go hard for Crazy Rich Asians, and I can see something like Bohemian Rhapsody's controversy getting in the way of its final hurdle for a BP nod, but I'd have it as an alternate along with Mary Poppins Returns.
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Post by mrimpossible on Dec 12, 2018 18:35:55 GMT
A Star is Born
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Reformed (I think there's a hidden passion vote behind it just like Phantom Thread last year.)
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
Vice
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Post by bruinjoe96 on Dec 12, 2018 18:53:15 GMT
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice
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Post by taranofprydain on Dec 12, 2018 18:58:06 GMT
Don't forget, two high ranking academy officials think Mary Poppins stands a good chance at winning BP.....
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 12, 2018 19:20:07 GMT
still think the top three are The Favourite, A Star Is Born, and Roma (in that order). If someone unseats The Favourite it would be A Star Is Born, not Roma.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Dec 12, 2018 23:48:01 GMT
IN
The Favourite
Roma
A Star is Born
BlackKKlansman
Vice
Green Book
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
ON THE OUTSIDE, LOOKING IN
Can You Ever Forgive Me? — I'm still predicting this will overperform and be the underdog, especially in such a populist sea of box office high grossers. It has criticial acclaim and I've heard nothing but positive things. It being the sole contender from a female director will also help it. Grant seems borderline lock for BSA, I've been predicting McCarthy the entire year, and the precursors point to her as well, it'll get into screenplay and very likely make-up/hairstyling. Surprised no one else is predicting it here.
Bohemian Rhapsody - It's been getting the precursors with such shocking ease so it should feel completely locked but II think it will be the “victim” of a massive smear campaigning. I mean it’ll get every single precursor but it still has a 49 metacritic score, Bryan Singer’s directing credit and all the factual inaccuracies as well as controversies how it handles Mercury’s sexuality and AIDS diagnosis).
If Beale Street Could Talk - Was snubbed by the SAGs, I suspect it will also be snubbed by the BAFTAs. Annapurna will likely prioritize campaigning Vice over this and try to get McKay into director and wins for Bale and Adams. They'll still push King but I think this has taken a massive hit now. Suspect First Man will end up with a bigger tally of nominations than this.
First Reformed - Was looking like the surprise passion pick that gets in but being shutout at both GG and SAG, unfortunately, doesn't bode well. It'll very likely get screenplay (Eight Grade overperforming could hurt its chances as it's also from A24) and I do not think Hawke is out but BP is looking like a struggle at this point.
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Post by DeepArcher on Dec 12, 2018 23:52:52 GMT
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemain Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice
Don't feel great about predicting a full ten, but at this point these are all looking solid. Poppins and Rhapsody are the most vulnerable for sure, possibly to something like Crazy Rich Asians.
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Post by quetee on Dec 13, 2018 0:43:11 GMT
Don't forget, two high ranking academy officials think Mary Poppins stands a good chance at winning BP..... Where did you read that. I'm not falling for this hype. |
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Post by Sharbs on Dec 13, 2018 4:04:46 GMT
The Favourite
A Star is Born
Roma
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Vice
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
Green Book
Ranked in order of likelihood of winning after nominated. Although I'm starting to think I'm hopping onboard the quetee-train.
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Post by bruinjoe96 on Dec 13, 2018 4:37:30 GMT
For those who are listing them in order of likelihood of winning, why you guys putting Green Book so low? Should be a top 5 contender.
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Post by Sharbs on Dec 13, 2018 16:59:44 GMT
For those who are listing them in order of likelihood of winning, why you guys putting Green Book so low? Should be a top 5 contender. it's pretty safe to get nominated, ill give you. But I just think it incites any passion to warrant anyone giving it its win, so I think it has the lowest chance of what I listed |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2018 4:28:06 GMT
If five...
1. A Star Is Born
2. Roma
3. Black Panther
4. Green Book
5. Black Klansman
If six - eight...
6. The Favourite
7. Mary Poppins Returns
8. Vice
If nine - ten...
9. If Beale Street Could Talk
10. First Reformed
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Dec 21, 2018 4:38:11 GMT
Mary Floppings is OUT of the game.
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Dec 21, 2018 4:39:00 GMT
Don't forget, two high ranking academy officials think Mary Poppins stands a good chance at winning BP..... This post just won't age well [no] |
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avnermoriarti
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Post by avnermoriarti on Dec 21, 2018 5:01:34 GMT
Damn, they're dropping like flies, but still, I'll wait until Sunday and see hwo it does overall.
Predictions:
Blackkklasman
A Star is Born
Roma
Black Panther
Green Book
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Vice
Mary Floppins Returns ( hehe )
If Beale Street Could Talk
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 21, 2018 5:03:19 GMT
Mary Floppings is OUT of the game. Yes, before the reviews, I thought it might be in, but the reviews plus poor start, has me ruling it out even from sneaking in now. Blunt might be okay just because she's been on the cusp of a nod for years , and Aparicio wasn't as strong as I thought she'd be with critics. Plus, Hereditary isn't exactly typical AMPAS fare. In order of likelihood, Roma A Star Is Born The Favourite Green Book BlacKkKlansman Black Panther Bohemian Rhapsody If Beale Street Could Talk Vice This might be one of those years that there are only 8 films though as I only feel super confident about the top 6, and think that the last 3 all have a lot of cons. Maybe A Quiet Place, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, or one of the A24 films could sneak in, but it depends on how well IBSCT and Vice do box office wise, and of course PGA and BAFTA. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2018 5:10:50 GMT
Mary Poppins made nearly $5 million on its opening day - estimates are nearing $80 million for the long weekend - how is it a flop?
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Dec 21, 2018 5:28:49 GMT
Mary Poppins made nearly $5 million on its opening day - estimates are nearing $80 million for the long weekend - how is it a flop? It's estimated to make 30 million. It's a bomb bro No one fell for the Mouse and their patronizing supercalifornication bullshit this time |
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Post by bob-coppola on Dec 21, 2018 13:39:36 GMT
The Greatest Showman didn't really set the box-office on fire on the start of its run, and it ended up a big hit. We shall not judge a movie success by its opening day.
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Post by ingmarhepburn on Dec 21, 2018 15:17:18 GMT
If they only nominate 7:
1. A Star Is Born
2. Roma
3. The Favourite
4. Black Panther
5. Green Book
6. BlackKklansman
7. If Beale Street Could Talk
If they decide to expand it to eight - ten:
8. Vice
9. Mary Poppins Returns
10. Bohemian Rhapsody
Not to be ruled out: First Reformed, Crazy Rich Asians, A Quiet Place, Eighth Grade
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