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Post by wilcinema on Dec 7, 2018 17:13:42 GMT
Shall we start the ball rolling?
I'm basing some of my predictions on guts, so they might look bold.
ENSEMBLE A Star Is Born The Favourite Vice Black Panther If Beale Street Could Talk Alt: Widows, Crazy Rich Asians, Roma
LEAD ACTOR Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born Christian Bale, Vice Viggo Mortensen, Green Book Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman Alt: Ryan Gosling, First Man; Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased; Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
LEAD ACTRESS Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born Glenn Close, The Wife Olivia Colman, The Favourite Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns Alt: Viola Davis, Widows; Toni Collette, Hereditary; Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
SUPPORTING ACTOR Mahershala Ali, Green Book Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther Alt: Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy; Sam Rockwell, Vice; Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite
SUPPORTING ACTRESS Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk Amy Adams, Vice Rachel Weisz, The Favourite Emma Stone, The Favourite Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased Alt: Claire Foy, First Man; Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians; Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
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Post by stephen on Dec 7, 2018 17:19:25 GMT
BEST ENSEMBLE:
Black Panther
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
Vice
(ALT: Crazy Rich Asians)
BEST ACTOR:
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
(ALT: John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman)
BEST ACTRESS:
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
(ALT: Toni Collette, Hereditary)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
(ALT: Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Amy Adams, Vice
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
(ALT: Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased)
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Post by DeepArcher on Dec 7, 2018 20:14:55 GMT
Ensemble: The Favourite, If Beale Street Could Talk, Black Panther, Widows, and ... Crazy Rich Asians, 'cuz they usually like sneaking-in a non-Best Picture contender and its ensemble has been getting tons of notices so far.
Actress: Gaga, Blunt, Colman, McCarthy, and ... either Davis or Collette, I think this particular body will favor the former. Definitely think this is where Close starts to lose steam.
Actor: Cooper, Bale, Mortensen, Malek, and Hawke. Idk if SAG is gonna go for First Reformed really, but this feels like "the five" for this category at this point, even after Hawke's snub from HFPA.
Supporting Actor: Ali, Grant, Elliott, Chalamet, and Jordan. MBJ gets the ball rolling here; Driver misses out but ultimately gets the Oscar nod in place of Timothee. Though I guess Rockwell is also a contender here now so who knows.
Supporting Actress: Stone, Weisz, King, Adams, and Yeoh. If Yeoh gets in anywhere, it's gonna be here. Kidman and Foy are also real threats, though, so I'm not sure.
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Post by wilcinema on Dec 8, 2018 10:23:47 GMT
Crazy Rich Asians is indeed giving me a headache. I checked a few stats: since 2000, only six films got a Sag Ensemble nod without garnering a single Oscar nomination: The Last Station, Bobby, Hairspray, The Bext Exotic Marigold Hotel, The Butler, Beasts Of No Nation. And we know why BONN was shutout. So in Ensemble, SAG has gone full Oscars for over a decade basically. I agree that Crazy Rich Asians looks like a perfect fit for Ensemble but I cannot make up my mind on it.
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Dec 8, 2018 11:16:07 GMT
ENSEMBLE
Black Panther
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
A Star Is Born
Vice
LEAD ACTOR
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Ethan Hawke: First Reformed
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Robert Redford: The Old Man and the Gun
LEAD ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Toni Collette: Hereditary
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet: Beautiful Boy
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Robert Forster: What They Had
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Vice
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Thomassen McKenzie: Leave No Trace
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Michelle Yeoh: Crazy Rich Asians
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Post by JangoB on Dec 8, 2018 13:07:09 GMT
ENSEMBLE:
Black Panther
The Favourite
Crazy Rich Asians
Vice
A Star Is Born
ACTOR:
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
ACTRESS:
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Amy Adams, Vice
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Claire Foy, First Man
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Post by quetee on Dec 8, 2018 16:37:10 GMT
Wondering if we will have 6 ensemble nods cause this year appears brutal.
The Favourite, Black Panther, A Star is Born, Crazy Rich Asians, Widows , Blackkklansman.
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speeders
Based
Posts: 4,096 
Likes: 2,214
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Post by speeders on Dec 9, 2018 2:00:43 GMT
ENSEMBLE
The Favourite
Vice
Black Panther
Crazy Rich Asians
Widows
Alt: If Beale Street Could Talk, A Star is Born, Green Book
ACTOR:
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun
Alt. Rami Malek, John David Washington, Willem Dafoe
ACTRESS:
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Alt: Melissa McCarthy, Glenn Close
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Alt: Sam Elliot, Michael B. Jordan
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Amy Adams, Vice
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Claire Foy, First Man
Alt: Michelle Yeoh, Nicole Kidman
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Dec 10, 2018 1:18:23 GMT
ENSEMBLE A Star Is Born The Favourite Vice Crazy Rich Asians
BlacKkKlansman LEAD ACTOR Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born Christian Bale, Vice Viggo Mortensen, Green Book Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody Ethan Hawke, First Reformed LEAD ACTRESS Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born Glenn Close, The Wife Olivia Colman, The Favourite Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns SUPPORTING ACTOR Mahershala Ali, Green Book Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman Sam Rockwell, Vice SUPPORTING ACTRESS Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk Amy Adams, Vice Rachel Weisz, The Favourite Emma Stone, The Favourite Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased |
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 10, 2018 11:27:12 GMT
Crazy Rich Asians is indeed giving me a headache. I checked a few stats: since 2000, only six films got a Sag Ensemble nod without garnering a single Oscar nomination: The Last Station, Bobby, Hairspray, The Bext Exotic Marigold Hotel, The Butler, Beasts Of No Nation. And we know why BONN was shutout. So in Ensemble, SAG has gone full Oscars for over a decade basically. I agree that Crazy Rich Asians looks like a perfect fit for Ensemble but I cannot make up my mind on it. Why not? I think it's pretty much a lock. It scored a Best Picture nomination at the Globes. It won the National Board of Review Best Ensemble award. It is going to be a strong contender for Best Adapted Screenplay award. The film is extremely comparable to My Big Fat Greek Wedding, and its buzz. The SAG awards like to be progressive and sneak in minority-themed films. I would argue the same for If Beale Street Could Talk. |
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Post by wilcinema on Dec 10, 2018 12:19:49 GMT
Crazy Rich Asians is indeed giving me a headache. I checked a few stats: since 2000, only six films got a Sag Ensemble nod without garnering a single Oscar nomination: The Last Station, Bobby, Hairspray, The Bext Exotic Marigold Hotel, The Butler, Beasts Of No Nation. And we know why BONN was shutout. So in Ensemble, SAG has gone full Oscars for over a decade basically. I agree that Crazy Rich Asians looks like a perfect fit for Ensemble but I cannot make up my mind on it. Why not? I think it's pretty much a lock. It scored a Best Picture nomination at the Globes. It won the National Board of Review Best Ensemble award. It is going to be a strong contender for Best Adapted Screenplay award. The film is extremely comparable to My Big Fat Greek Wedding, and its buzz. The SAG awards like to be progressive and sneak in minority-themed films. I would argue the same for If Beale Street Could Talk. I do agree that it's a strong contender fo a SAG Ensemble nod, but I like to base my predictions mainly on stats and they say that 95% of the SAG Ensemble nominees either score at least another nomination in individual categories or they get at least one Oscar nomination.
On the other hand, if I had to go with perception, it has everything to hit here.
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 11, 2018 12:00:53 GMT
Perhaps this is overthinking, but here's my tea reading:
BEST ACTOR
Bale, Cooper, Dafoe, Malek, and Mortensen
BEST ACTRESS
Blunt, Colman, Close, Gaga, and McCarthy
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ali, Chalamet, Driver, Elliot, and Grant
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Adams, Foy, King, Stone, and Weisz
BEST ENSEMBLE/ACTORS BEST PICTURE
Black Panther
Crazy Rich Asians
If Beale Street Could Talk
The Favourite
Vice
The first three, I like because SAG generally favors successful films with minority casting with strong odds of getting best picture or screenplay nomination. That leaves two spots open. The Favourite gets in because it's a strong contender for winning Best Picture this season and won the Satellite Best Ensemble award. I love Green Book and A Star Is Born, but those are not so much of an ensemble. That leaves Vice.
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Post by bruinjoe96 on Dec 11, 2018 20:45:20 GMT
Best Ensemble:
Black Panther
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born
Vice
Best Actor
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Actress
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Coleman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliot, A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, Vice
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2018 1:36:31 GMT
ENSEMBLE
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Vice
ACTRESS
Emily Blunt
Glenn Close
Olivia Colman
Lady Gaga
Melissa McCarthy
ACTOR
Christian Bale
Bradley Cooper
Ethan Hawke
Rami Malek
Viggo Mortensen
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams
Claire Foy
Regina King
Emma Stone
Rachel Weisz
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali
Timothée Chalamet
Adam Driver
Sam Elliott
Richard E. Grant
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Post by Mattsby on Dec 12, 2018 2:10:42 GMT
I think it's crucial that Hawke gets in here if we wanna see him at the Oscars.... so really hoping for that. And - is there an echo in here? - last chance for Pacino to get some/any love for Paterno!! In a way, here is where he should show up. Screw the GGs and the Emmys. Imagine an actor voting for five performances that aren't from the living legend - whose performance in Paterno is serious and complex and better than almost all of the other TV Movie performances this year. As Helen Mirren said a few years ago, "He is the most beloved of all actors." And as Emmy f'n nominated John Legend says in Jesus Christ f'n Superstar, "Think while you still have me. Move while you still see me. You'll be lost and you'll be sorry when I'm gone." (yes I googled the quote bc no I didn't watch the special and yes I'm a bit of a hypocrite  ) |
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Post by eyebrowmorroco on Dec 12, 2018 10:03:57 GMT
Black Panther
The Favourite
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice
Bale; Cooper; Dafoe; Mortensen; Redford
Blunt; Close; Colman; Gaga; McCarthy
Ali; Chalamet; Grant; Jordan; Rockwell
Adams; Foy; King; Stone; Weisz
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The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
Posts: 1,155
Likes: 552
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Post by The-Havok on Dec 12, 2018 14:00:46 GMT
NGNG
BLACK PANTHER
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
CRAZY RICH ASIANS
THE FAVORITE
VICE
COOPER
BALE
MALEK
MORTENSEN
REDFORD
CLOSE
COLMAN
GAGA
DAVIS
KIDMAN
ALI
ELLIOT
B. JORDAN
GRANT
ROCKWELL
ADAMS
KING
WEISZ
STONE
YEOH
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)
