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Post by quetee on Dec 5, 2018 4:17:48 GMT
This is how we ranked the Oscar contenders:
PICTURE
A STAR IS BORN
ROMA
THE FAVOURITE
GREEN BOOK
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
BLACKKKLANSMAN
BLACK PANTHER
VICE
FIRST MAN
FIRST REFORMED
MAR RANKED 1ST: A STAR IS BORN
GOLDDERY RANKED 1ST: A STAR IS BORN
DIFFERENCES
MAR: 9TH FIRST MAN WITH SPOILER - FIRST REFORMED
GOLDDERBY: 9TH FIRST MAN WITH SPOILER - MARY POPPINS RETURNS
MAR: 10TH FIRST REFORMED WITH SPOILER - MARY POPPINS RETURNS
GOLDDERBY: 10TH MARY POPPINS RETURNS WITH SPOILER - CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
depends on the number of nods. last year, there were 9.
DIRECTOR
ALFONSO CUARON
BRADLEY COOPER
YORGOS LANTHIMOS
BARRY JENKINS
SPIKE LEE
100% MATCH WITH GOLDDERY
MAR RANKED 1ST: ALFONSO CUARON
GOLDDERY RANKED 1ST: ALFONSO CUARON
MAR: SPOILER - DAMIEN CHAZELLE
GOLDDERBY: SPOILER - PETER FARRELLY
ACTOR
BRADLEY COOPER
CHRISTIAN BALE
ETHAN HAWKE
VIGGO MORTENSEN
RAMI MALEK
100% MATCH WITH GOLDDERY
MAR RANKED 1ST: BRADLEY COOPER
GOLDDERY RANKED 1ST: BRADLEY COOPER
MAR: SPOILER - RYAN GOSLING
GOLDDERBY: SPOILER - RYAN GOSLING
ACTRESS
OLIVIA COLMAN
LADY GAGA
GLENN CLOSE
MELISSA MCCARTHY
EMILY BLUNT
MAR RANKED 1ST: OLIVIA COLMAN
GOLDDERY RANKED 1ST: LADY GAGA
DIFFERENCES
MAR: 5TH EMILY BLUNT
GOLDDERBY: 5TH YALITZA APARICIO
MAR: SPOILER - YALITZA APARICIO
GOLDDERBY: SPOILER - VIOLA DAVIS
S. ACTOR
MARHERSHALA ALI
RICHARD E GRANT
SAM ELLIOT
ADAM DRIVER
TIMOTHEE CHALMET
MAR RANKED 1ST: MARHERSHALA ALI
GOLDDERY RANKED 1ST: MARHERSHALA ALI
DIFFERENCES
MAR: 5TH TIMOTHEE CHALMET
GOLDDERBY: 5TH SAM ROCKWELL
MAR: SPOILER - SAM ROCKWELL
GOLDDERBY: SPOILER - ADAM DRIVER
S. ACTRESS
REGINA KING
EMMA STONE
AMY ADAMS
RACHEL WEISZ
CLAIRE FOY
100% MATCH WITH GOLDDERY
MAR RANKED 1ST: REGINA KING
GOLDDERY RANKED 1ST: REGINA KING
MAR: SPOILER - NICOLE KIDMAN
GOLDDERBY: SPOILER - NICOLE KIDMAN
O. SCREENPLAY
THE FAVOURITE
FIRST REFORMED
ROMA
GREEN BOOK
VICE
100% MATCH WITH GOLDDERY
MAR RANKED 1ST: THE FAVOURITE
GOLDDERY RANKED 1ST: THE FAVOURITE
MAR: SPOILER - EIGHT GRADE
GOLDDERBY: SPOILER - EIGHT GRADE
A. SCREENPLAY
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
BLACKKKSLANSMAN
CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME
A STAR IS BORN
FIRST MAN
100% MATCH WITH GOLDDERY
MAR RANKED 1ST: IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
GOLDDERY RANKED 1ST: BLACKKKSLANSMAN
MAR: SPOILER - THE DEATH OF STALIN
GOLDDERBY: SPOILER - WIDOWS
SPOILER = RANKED 6TH
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Post by Martin Stett on Dec 5, 2018 4:46:33 GMT
So basically, we agree 99%.
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Post by DeepArcher on Dec 5, 2018 5:01:47 GMT
It's funny how much my predictions have already changed since I sent you that ballot like two days ago  |
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Post by quetee on Dec 5, 2018 5:01:56 GMT
So basically, we agree 99%. Pretty much but they get paid for being the experts. I guess at this point, it will be interesting to see if we call the spoiler or that 5th unexpected nod. |
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Post by quetee on Dec 5, 2018 5:09:46 GMT
It's funny how much my predictions have already changed since I sent you that ballot like two days ago And that's without BFCA and Globes. I think a lot of people will drop First Man on the next submission. |
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Post by DeepArcher on Dec 5, 2018 5:12:06 GMT
And that's without BFCA and Globes. I think a lot of people will drop First Man on the next submission. Oh, absolutely ... had I sent that ballot today, I woulda had Mary Poppins Returns and First Reformed at ninth and tenth respectively rather than First Man and Widows. |
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Post by quetee on Dec 5, 2018 5:18:09 GMT
And that's without BFCA and Globes. I think a lot of people will drop First Man on the next submission. Oh, absolutely ... had I sent that ballot today, I woulda had Mary Poppins Returns and First Reformed at ninth and tenth respectively rather than First Man and Widows. I actually think we are doing better than Goldderby because we at least have First Reformed in our top ten. I was actually hoping that First Reformed finished 9th but there were way too much First Man believers. |
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Post by bruinjoe96 on Dec 5, 2018 5:38:12 GMT
Oh, absolutely ... had I sent that ballot today, I woulda had Mary Poppins Returns and First Reformed at ninth and tenth respectively rather than First Man and Widows. I actually think we are doing better than Goldderby because we at least have First Reformed in our top ten. I was actually hoping that First Reformed finished 9th but there were way too much First Man believers. Yeah, after it missing the AFI top 10, I'm no longer a First Man believer. It's gotta overperform at the Globes to make me believe again. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 5, 2018 18:34:59 GMT
no way Blunt and Foy are over Davis and Kidman
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Post by quetee on Dec 5, 2018 18:39:12 GMT
no way Blunt and Foy are over Davis and Kidman Yes way, I was shocked too. I could not believe that many people still believed in Foy. |
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Post by quetee on Dec 5, 2018 18:44:17 GMT
Oops, in my commentary(listed correctly), I accidently stated that Adam Driver was ranked 5th (he's 4th). TIMOTHEE CHALMET is the one who is ranked 5th.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 5, 2018 18:47:51 GMT
Oops, in my commentary(listed correctly), I accidently stated that Adam Driver was ranked 5th (he's 4th). TIMOTHEE CHALMET is the one who is ranked 5th. OH MY GOD mar has lost their minds. Driver was looking shaky a month ago and his position definitely hasn't improved, especially with BlacKkKlansman losing so much steam so quickly. I think it's much likelier that the Academy will fall hard for Beale Street in which case Henry might sneak in. And if Black Panther maintains and/or builds its momentum I still think Jordan has an outside chance, possibly more of a chance than Driver. And since when has it been a good idea to bet against Davis? |
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Post by stephen on Dec 5, 2018 18:52:13 GMT
Oops, in my commentary(listed correctly), I accidently stated that Adam Driver was ranked 5th (he's 4th). TIMOTHEE CHALMET is the one who is ranked 5th. OH MY GOD mar has lost their minds. Driver was looking shaky a month ago and nothing's changed damnit, especially with BlacKkKlansman losing so much steam so quickly. I think it's much likelier that the Academy will fall hard for Beale Street in which case Henry might sneak in. And if Black Panther maintains and/or builds its momentum I still think Jordan has an outside chance, possibly more of a chance than Driver. And since when has it been a good idea to bet against Davis? Blunt has a massive late-season surge that will likely hit at just the right time, knocking out a contender who is clinging to the fifth slot . . . someone like Davis. She's not safe, and Blunt has a narrative building (banner year, never been nominated, got a SAG nomination two years ago, etc.). They love Davis, but her film looks like it could massively underperform from where people expected it a few months ago (people had Kaluuya as a possible winner threat right after TIFF, for example), and I wouldn't be surprised if it missed entirely. It doesn't help that Best Actress is a bloodbath of possible contenders and there's no rush for them to nominate Davis, who just won, anyway. Bottom line: don't underestimate Mary Poppins, y'all. |
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Post by quetee on Dec 5, 2018 18:54:49 GMT
Oops, in my commentary(listed correctly), I accidently stated that Adam Driver was ranked 5th (he's 4th). TIMOTHEE CHALMET is the one who is ranked 5th. OH MY GOD mar has lost their minds. Driver was looking shaky a month ago and nothing's changed damnit, especially with BlacKkKlansman losing so much steam so quickly. I think it's much likelier that the Academy will fall hard for Beale Street in which case Henry might sneak in. And if Black Panther maintains and/or builds its momentum I still think Jordan has an outside chance, possibly more of a chance than Driver. And since when has it been a good idea to bet against Davis? Based on the ballots, supporting actor has three locks: Elliot, Ali and Grant. The other two spots are wide open. In fact, I think there will be a big shakeup post Globes, SAG and BFCA. |
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Post by quetee on Dec 5, 2018 18:58:24 GMT
OH MY GOD mar has lost their minds. Driver was looking shaky a month ago and nothing's changed damnit, especially with BlacKkKlansman losing so much steam so quickly. I think it's much likelier that the Academy will fall hard for Beale Street in which case Henry might sneak in. And if Black Panther maintains and/or builds its momentum I still think Jordan has an outside chance, possibly more of a chance than Driver. And since when has it been a good idea to bet against Davis? Blunt has a massive late-season surge that will likely hit at just the right time, knocking out a contender who is clinging to the fifth slot . . . someone like Davis. She's not safe, and Blunt has a narrative building (banner year, never been nominated, got a SAG nomination two years ago, etc.). They love Davis, but her film looks like it could massively underperform from where people expected it a few months ago (people had Kaluuya as a possible winner threat right after TIFF, for example), and I wouldn't be surprised if it missed entirely. It doesn't help that Best Actress is a bloodbath of possible contenders and there's no rush for them to nominate Davis, who just won, anyway. Bottom line: don't underestimate Mary Poppins, y'all. Yeah, best actress is a bloodbath. On our ballots, Davis' highest ranking is 5th. ouch. |
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Post by stephen on Dec 5, 2018 19:02:04 GMT
Blunt has a massive late-season surge that will likely hit at just the right time, knocking out a contender who is clinging to the fifth slot . . . someone like Davis. She's not safe, and Blunt has a narrative building (banner year, never been nominated, got a SAG nomination two years ago, etc.). They love Davis, but her film looks like it could massively underperform from where people expected it a few months ago (people had Kaluuya as a possible winner threat right after TIFF, for example), and I wouldn't be surprised if it missed entirely. It doesn't help that Best Actress is a bloodbath of possible contenders and there's no rush for them to nominate Davis, who just won, anyway. Bottom line: don't underestimate Mary Poppins, y'all. Yeah, best actress is a bloodbath. On our ballots, Davis' highest ranking is 5th. ouch. I feel Best Actress is prime for a huge "snub" as passion shifts. Gaga and Colman are the only two that I think are secure because they have the huge films behind them, but anyone else that seems like a good bet could miss entirely. McCarthy and Close feel like they're contending for the same general slot (similar subject matter, more or less the same sort of box-office), Aparicio could get swept up in the Roma love (although she needs the critics to come through for her more than they have thus far), Davis's film is flagging but could get a nice boost at the Globes/SAG to revive her, while Collette is clawing her way through the season with far more strength than I suspected. Blunt looks like she can spoil at the perfect time. |
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Post by quetee on Dec 5, 2018 19:08:30 GMT
Yeah, best actress is a bloodbath. On our ballots, Davis' highest ranking is 5th. ouch. I feel Best Actress is prime for a huge "snub" as passion shifts. Gaga and Colman are the only two that I think are secure because they have the huge films behind them, but anyone else that seems like a good bet could miss entirely. McCarthy and Close feel like they're contending for the same general slot (similar subject matter, more or less the same sort of box-office), Aparicio could get swept up in the Roma love (although she needs the critics to come through for her more than they have thus far), Davis's film is flagging but could get a nice boost at the Globes/SAG to revive her, while Collette is clawing her way through the season with far more strength than I suspected. Blunt looks like she can spoil at the perfect time. I agree 100%. I would only bet on Colman ad Gaga at this point. The other three spots are wide open. I am shocked that Aparicio is not doing better with the critics. It wouldn't surprise me though if she gets a boost from LA critics. I believe whomever gets that LA critics award needs to be taken seriously especially if it is someone outside the norm. |
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Post by quetee on Dec 5, 2018 19:15:23 GMT
I actually think we are doing better than Goldderby because we at least have First Reformed in our top ten. I was actually hoping that First Reformed finished 9th but there were way too much First Man believers. Yeah, after it missing the AFI top 10, I'm no longer a First Man believer. It's gotta overperform at the Globes to make me believe again. The Globes will give it a boost. |
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Post by quetee on Dec 6, 2018 17:11:55 GMT
Post Globes, looks like they are doing better job with directors. I think the boards blind faith in Damien was the issue.
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Post by bruinjoe96 on Dec 6, 2018 18:48:55 GMT
Yeah, after it missing the AFI top 10, I'm no longer a First Man believer. It's gotta overperform at the Globes to make me believe again. The Globes will give it a boost. I guess not. Ouch, not even Ryan Gosling couldn't get in, and the GG split the acting categories. |
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Post by quetee on Dec 6, 2018 21:22:47 GMT
The Globes will give it a boost. I guess not. Ouch, not even Ryan Gosling couldn't get in, and the GG split the acting categories. Yeah, I thought their azz kissing ways would confuse the hell out of us and give it a nod but nope, they are not even feeling the movie. |
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