|
Post by stephen on Dec 10, 2018 5:16:11 GMT
Wow. A 3 way tie? D'oh. It really is anybody's guess at this point. It will be funny if Black Panther wins best picture. Ha ha. Seriously, after that Shape of Water win, anything is possible. It's definitely got a shot, but what else do you think it would take to "consecrate" that win? I have it predicted for a Production Design win, but it would need something else, and at least one above-the-line win at that. Even Spotlight, which won only one other Oscar, at least had a writing prize. Do you think Coogler could spoil Cuaron, or maybe Jordan?
|
|
|
Post by bruinjoe96 on Dec 10, 2018 5:26:08 GMT
LMAO at The Favorite. Black Panther isn't winning It's nomination would be its win.
|
|
|
Post by stabcaesar on Dec 10, 2018 11:26:44 GMT
I feel like it's gonna be Roma, especially since Gravity didn't win.
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Dec 10, 2018 12:32:28 GMT
Yeah, I think I'm switching my vote to Roma.
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Dec 10, 2018 16:08:01 GMT
Roma is not winning.
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Dec 10, 2018 17:22:54 GMT
Wow. A 3 way tie? D'oh. It really is anybody's guess at this point. It will be funny if Black Panther wins best picture. Ha ha. Seriously, after that Shape of Water win, anything is possible. It's definitely got a shot, but what else do you think it would take to "consecrate" that win? I have it predicted for a Production Design win, but it would need something else, and at least one above-the-line win at that. Even Spotlight, which won only one other Oscar, at least had a writing prize. Do you think Coogler could spoil Cuaron, or maybe Jordan? Jordan is not winning, his nod is a major win. Like I said before, Spike is getting a nod and either Barry or Ryan goes with him and I think Ryan has a better shot. Ryan of course won't win. Director is actually a cluster. I don't think Farrelly scores a nod cause that type of movie seems to get snubbed in director. Adam? Who knows at this point, he is possible, then you have Yorgos who could get snubbed cause he's an "outsider". We do know that Cooper and CuAron are locks. Anyway, lmao....adapted screenplay is possible cause Ryan wrote it and they love constellation prizes in that category. And some people of course are lazy and will just vote down the line.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Dec 10, 2018 19:55:25 GMT
It's definitely got a shot, but what else do you think it would take to "consecrate" that win? I have it predicted for a Production Design win, but it would need something else, and at least one above-the-line win at that. Even Spotlight, which won only one other Oscar, at least had a writing prize. Do you think Coogler could spoil Cuaron, or maybe Jordan? Jordan is not winning, his nod is a major win. Like I said before, Spike is getting a nod and either Barry or Ryan goes with him and I think Ryan has a better shot. Ryan of course won't win. Director is actually a cluster. I don't think Farrelly scores a nod cause that type of movie seems to get snubbed in director. Adam? Who knows at this point, he is possible, then you have Yorgos who could get snubbed cause he's an "outsider". We do know that Cooper and CuAron are locks. Anyway, lmao....adapted screenplay is possible cause Ryan wrote it and they love constellation prizes in that category. And some people of course are lazy and will just vote down the line. Lanthimos isn't that much of an outsider. He's been nominated by them before for writing, and he even got Dogtooth (about the most alienating choice ever) nominated for Foreign Language Film. I'd say he's more like PTA: he doesn't make a whole lot of audience-friendly movies, but I think he definitely has respect in the industry and he did helm one of the big ensemble films of the year. I think he's third in line behind Alfonso and Bradley right now in terms of likelihood for a nod. Lee bounced back this week with the Globes and BFCA, but I'd still put him at fourth because it remains to be seen how well BlacKkKlansman will do overall. It needs one of its actors to get in, I think, because otherwise they can just be happy giving Spike a nod in Adapted and (I guess) Picture. Driver/Washington getting in would give it enough juice to help Spike; if BlacKkKlansman over performs, I'd say he's the only one with a shot at dethroning Cuaron. That leaves the fifth slot. Coogler makes sense if Black Panther is going to be a huge contender, and he's got some goodwill built up over the years. Plus they always have at least one big tech contender. What worries me is that Black Panther, if it's going to be our eventual BP winner, needs more wins. Not nominations, but wins. If it takes Production Design, I'd say it needs at least one more tech. Costumes is probably its best bet, but I can see The Favourite snagging that. And if it's not going to win any acting/writing prizes, it absolutely needs to win Director like The Shape of Water did.
|
|
|
Post by wilcinema on Dec 10, 2018 20:03:42 GMT
If Coogler gets in Best Director and there's Michael B. Jordan in Supporting Actor, the path to a potential Black Panther win is paved. The problem with the movie lies with the 4 big guilds: it has to hit PGA, SAG, DGA, WGA. Even just one miss would spell death for its chances.
|
|
|
Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Dec 10, 2018 20:05:45 GMT
A Star Is Born doesn't seem as safe anymore but it's still a solid bet and probably at number 3 or 4. Roma has so much working against it, from Netflix to its foreign status to its absence of acting contenders (Aparicio and de Tavira are massive longshots at this point) so I'm not going to throw my hat in Cuarón's ring.
That leaves The Favourite and I'm sticking with it. If it had one major drawback it's that Lanthimos isn't in the best position for directing. I think he's getting in but probably at around that 4th and 5th spot. The directing field is ridiculously crowded this year. However, it is going to be a slam dunk for techs and it has at least two acting locks (probably three because Weisz is looking good) and it's going to have a screenplay nod to boot so it has almost all its bases covered. Obvious pick at this point with Roma fighting tough odds and A Star Is Born losing steam.
|
|
CookiesNCream
Badass
So what else is new?
Posts: 1,064
Likes: 478
|
Post by CookiesNCream on Dec 10, 2018 20:22:15 GMT
I feel it could be a toss up between A Star is Born, Roma, and The Favourite.
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Dec 10, 2018 20:46:07 GMT
If Coogler gets in Best Director and there's Michael B. Jordan in Supporting Actor, the path to a potential Black Panther win is paved. The problem with the movie lies with the 4 big guilds: it has to hit PGA, SAG, DGA, WGA. Even just one miss would spell death for its chances. I think the only problematic guild is DGA.
|
|
|
Post by wilcinema on Dec 10, 2018 20:52:20 GMT
If Coogler gets in Best Director and there's Michael B. Jordan in Supporting Actor, the path to a potential Black Panther win is paved. The problem with the movie lies with the 4 big guilds: it has to hit PGA, SAG, DGA, WGA. Even just one miss would spell death for its chances. I think the only problematic guild is DGA. DGA has often surprised with big-budget, top-grossing films. I think SAG is more complicated.
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Dec 10, 2018 21:25:42 GMT
Jordan is not winning, his nod is a major win. Like I said before, Spike is getting a nod and either Barry or Ryan goes with him and I think Ryan has a better shot. Ryan of course won't win. Director is actually a cluster. I don't think Farrelly scores a nod cause that type of movie seems to get snubbed in director. Adam? Who knows at this point, he is possible, then you have Yorgos who could get snubbed cause he's an "outsider". We do know that Cooper and CuAron are locks. Anyway, lmao....adapted screenplay is possible cause Ryan wrote it and they love constellation prizes in that category. And some people of course are lazy and will just vote down the line. Lanthimos isn't that much of an outsider. He's been nominated by them before for writing, and he even got Dogtooth (about the most alienating choice ever) nominated for Foreign Language Film. I'd say he's more like PTA: he doesn't make a whole lot of audience-friendly movies, but I think he definitely has respect in the industry and he did helm one of the big ensemble films of the year. I think he's third in line behind Alfonso and Bradley right now in terms of likelihood for a nod. Lee bounced back this week with the Globes and BFCA, but I'd still put him at fourth because it remains to be seen how well BlacKkKlansman will do overall. It needs one of its actors to get in, I think, because otherwise they can just be happy giving Spike a nod in Adapted and (I guess) Picture. Driver/Washington getting in would give it enough juice to help Spike; if BlacKkKlansman over performs, I'd say he's the only one with a shot at dethroning Cuaron. That leaves the fifth slot. Coogler makes sense if Black Panther is going to be a huge contender, and he's got some goodwill built up over the years. Plus they always have at least one big tech contender. What worries me is that Black Panther, if it's going to be our eventual BP winner, needs more wins. Not nominations, but wins. If it takes Production Design, I'd say it needs at least one more tech. Costumes is probably its best bet, but I can see The Favourite snagging that. And if it's not going to win any acting/writing prizes, it absolutely needs to win Director like The Shape of Water did. the was the WGA branch and they are not as snobby as the DGA branch. I still do believe though that if The Favourite does well at box office, I rank it wway ahead of Roma.
|
|
dadsburgers
Badass
Posts: 2,089
Likes: 837
Member is Online
|
Post by dadsburgers on Dec 11, 2018 6:20:32 GMT
Honestly I'm guessing they'll just give it to Green Book.
Best Director to Cuaron
Acting awards to some combination of Star Is Born and The Favorite
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Dec 12, 2018 15:46:23 GMT
I think the only problematic guild is DGA. DGA has often surprised with big-budget, top-grossing films. I think SAG is more complicated. nope.
|
|
|
Post by joephoenix on Dec 12, 2018 19:18:23 GMT
BlacKKKlansman
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Dec 20, 2018 21:38:24 GMT
Well, even after all that hoopla, I still don't know but I've narrowed it down to the following : a star is born, black panther, the favourite and Roma even though I don't think the latter has that much of a shot.
|
|
morton
Based
Posts: 2,811
Likes: 2,954
|
Post by morton on Dec 20, 2018 23:06:33 GMT
I voted for Roma, but I'm not very confident in it. Maybe after SAG, we'll have a clearer picture. If ASIB wins there, then I'll likely switch to that.
It's just that both Roma and ASIB seem very weak right now, but nothing else really seems that strong either. Roma missed SAG even with all of Netflix's elaborate campaigning for it while Bohemian Rhapsody managed to get in. This could be another year where the critics and guilds go for different things similar to when Boyhood dominated the critics' awards, but Birdman dominated the guilds.
ASIB had some backlash, but for the most part, I think it's been lucky in that there have been bigger targets later on to shield it. It didn't win at NBR as expected but still did well there. It will probably win at the Globes, but it doesn't seem to have the dominance factor that La La Land had there as Elliott wasn't even nominated, which should help it from getting the backlash that La La Land got after the Globes. On the other hand, it probably won't win Director or Screenplay. Plus, while I could see it winning Best Actor and Best Actress, I think that it could be hurt in the Best Picture race if people think that it pales in comparison to something like Roma, and that winning two big awards of the night would be more than enough for the film. I could also see some voters may also think that it the other versions of the film were better.
In addition to Roma and ASIB, there's Black Panther. It's done well so far, but I think at the end of the day that the nomination might be its reward and that there will still be a biased against it from some members because it's a superhero movie. It was only a few short years ago that the industry backed Birdman over the critical favorite Boyhood partly because voters could relate to several things in Birdman like the criticism of superhero films. Plus, it's unlikely to win Director or Screenplay, it might even miss both categories.
There's Green Book, but even though the controversy hasn't taken it down yet, it feels like one of those schmaltzy Miramax films that would get in like Finding Neverland or Chocolat that make voters feel good about themselves, but ultimately never win the big prize. Now if it had Weinstein at his full Oscar power back then behind it, then maybe it might get close like The Cider House Rules or something, but I could see this being one of those films getting 4-5 nominations and then going home empty-handed.
Next there's The Favourite which should win BAFTA unless they decide to go with whatever they think the Oscar will go with. I'm hesitant though because Yorgos Lanthimos missed Best Director at the Globes, and I've seen people that love the film until the ending. It also seems like a strange winner, imo, as it's primarily around women, and while there are a lot of important issues that it addresses, I don't know that it has the "importance" factor that something like Spotlight and Moonlight had that helped them.
Finally, there's BlacKkKlansman. I don't want to jinx it because it hasn't done that well with the critics' awards, but industry wise, so far it's doing quite well. BAFTA will be a big test though. If it can get in there and get nominations for Lee and Driver, then I think that would be a big test of its strength. I don't see Washington getting in because they've snubbed his father for years, but if a miracle did happen and he got in, I think that might be a sign for me to pencil it in to win the Academy Award for Best Picture. On paper though, aside from the critics' wins and Lee possibly making too many enemies in his career, I think it could be a film to keep an eye on. It has the "importance" factor, will likely win Adapted Screenplay, and got a SAG Ensemble nomination. I won't hold my breath though because every time I think that it should do well like at certain smaller critics' awards, it misses or barely gets anything. Then, when I think it might not show up at all or might only get the minimum like at the Globes or SAG, it exceeds my expectations.
|
|
avnermoriarti
Badass
Friends say I’ve changed. They’re right.
Posts: 2,391
Likes: 1,274
|
Post by avnermoriarti on Dec 20, 2018 23:09:14 GMT
Well, I think Roma’s chances are higher now that’s been seen by more people, the #myroma and I’ve seen the add on youtube a couple of times already of people from over the world telling how they relate to it, in the end is a monument to memories and that can’t be taken for granted and Cuarón is very likable and the actresses just appeared on Kimmel. Netflix is gonna everything they can.
However, I’m sticking with Blackkklansman, it fits the mold of what’s been winning in the last years, for instance, I don’t like it 😎, but it’s “tackling” big issues, like Shape of Water/Moonlight, is artfully done, has a weird sense of humor, it’s an actors dream, just like Birdman, supports a cause, Spike Lee, etc. It could be.
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Dec 20, 2018 23:18:33 GMT
Well, I think Roma’s chances are higher now that’s been seen by more people, the #myroma and I’ve seen the add on youtube a couple of times already of people from over the world telling how they relate to it, in the end is a monument to nostalgia and that can’t be taken for granted and Cuarón is very likable and the actresses just appeared on Kimmel. Netflix is gonna everything they can. However, I’m sticking with Blackkklansman, it fits the mold of what’s been winning in the last years, for instance, I don’t like it 😎, but it’s “tackling” big issues, like Shape of Water/Moonlight, is artfully done, has a weird sense of humor, it’s an actors dream, just like Birdman, supports a cause, Spike Lee, etc. It could be. Blackkklansman is an option but I think it is in 5th position at the moment but the guilds haven't chimed in yet and the big guys haven't picked any winners yet so it is still a contender. First Man and Vice are dead.
|
|
|
Post by bob-coppola on Dec 21, 2018 14:06:56 GMT
I still stand by Roma.
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Dec 28, 2018 17:58:09 GMT
Okay, so even Universal doesn't think First Man is scoring BP nod. On way to work today, I saw FYC ad on bus for First Man in the adapted screenplay category. They waste an ad for that rather than best picture? I have never seen ad for screenplay only like that on bus.
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Jan 8, 2019 22:49:36 GMT
If Coogler gets in Best Director and there's Michael B. Jordan in Supporting Actor, the path to a potential Black Panther win is paved. The problem with the movie lies with the 4 big guilds: it has to hit PGA, SAG, DGA, WGA. Even just one miss would spell death for its chances. I think the only problematic guild is DGA.
|
|