|
Post by tastytomatoes on Dec 1, 2018 10:33:59 GMT
New month, new BP poll. You know the drill: the poll is only to make my tallying easier. If you want to vote for something else, you can: just post your choice below.
Otherwise only use the poll function to vote. Feel free to explain your vote, offer your insights, or guarantee future bragging rights for calling it early, but only the poll votes will be tallied (with the exception above). I'll keep it open for a few days, then post the results with some comments.
Black Panther continues with 1 vote securing its position. Compared to October, November saw a slight rise of confidence in Roma while BlackKklansman lost some steam in the Oscar race. A Star is Born continues the lead with The Favourite behind. This year, with only 7 movies left on our poll and A Star Is Born in a far lead, give your insight for the ultimate Best Picture Winner!
|
|
|
Post by JangoB on Dec 1, 2018 11:21:18 GMT
No idea. I'll stick with "The Favourite" at the moment, but I ain't too sure.
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Dec 1, 2018 13:13:20 GMT
No idea. I'll stick with "The Favourite" at the moment, but I ain't too sure. This.
|
|
|
Post by mrimpossible on Dec 1, 2018 15:03:47 GMT
I’m thinking The Favourite will be more divisive than Roma. So Roma.
|
|
flaiky
New Member
Posts: 34
Likes: 12
|
Post by flaiky on Dec 1, 2018 18:17:47 GMT
I really get the sense that The Favourite will be less popular than we expected, while I'm starting to feel like Roma has more and more of a chance. Tough to chose between that and ASIB.
Edit: Yeah not a single pundit on GoldDerby is currently predicting The Favourite to win. I'm surprised it's still so popular here.
|
|
|
Post by DeepArcher on Dec 1, 2018 18:49:38 GMT
Officially switching from The Favourite to Roma, a film that three months ago I doubted would even get a Best Picture nomination.
|
|
Zeb31
Based
Bernardo is not believing que vous êtes come to bing bing avec nous
Posts: 2,557
Likes: 3,794
|
Post by Zeb31 on Dec 1, 2018 19:22:31 GMT
Still going with The Favourite, but Roma is looking stronger and stronger each day.
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 1, 2018 19:40:57 GMT
This board is still the only place The Favourite gets anywhere near this kind of faith. It’s strange.
|
|
|
Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Dec 1, 2018 20:39:16 GMT
A Star Is Born.
After seeing The Favourite last night, I feel even more confident that it's not winning BP.
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Dec 2, 2018 1:08:03 GMT
This board is still the only place The Favourite gets anywhere near this kind of faith. It’s strange. AwardsWatch
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Dec 2, 2018 1:09:36 GMT
I really get the sense that The Favourite will be less popular than we expected, while I'm starting to feel like Roma has more and more of a chance. Tough to chose between that and ASIB.
Edit: Yeah not a single pundit on GoldDerby is currently predicting The Favourite to win. I'm surprised it's still so popular here.
GoldDerby really isn't the be all and end all of predictions. I mean a lot of them still think Green Book is going to win.
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 2, 2018 1:43:25 GMT
This board is still the only place The Favourite gets anywhere near this kind of faith. It’s strange. AwardsWatch I think it’s mostly because Lanthimos has fans among the film nerds honestly. Edit: I looked at AwardsWatch and didn’t see hardly anybody picking it to win. Everybody is picking it for a nod which is smart but most say Roma or A Star is Born
|
|
|
Post by Martin Stett on Dec 2, 2018 2:01:11 GMT
This is wide open. I'm moving off of Black Klansman, my faith is wavering. It still seems like the safest bet as an "Oscar type movie" that isn't from a director that won BP with his last film, and isn't a movie about race as directed by a white guy.
But what of the others? I won't believe Roma until I see it. The Favourite seems too divisive. ASIB looks like a clusterfuck. Black Panther is Marvel. Vice is still a wild card, but seems even more divisive than anything else at first glance.
To be honest, I'm kinda seeing First Reformed sneaking in among a lot of splits. Ah, who am I kidding, no chance of that.
I'm gonna... oh boy. I'm siding with the clusterfuck. ASIB for me. I have nothing, guys.
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Dec 2, 2018 2:10:03 GMT
This is wide open. I'm moving off of Black Klansman, my faith is wavering. It still seems like the safest bet as an "Oscar type movie" that isn't from a director that won BP with his last film, and isn't a movie about race as directed by a white guy. But what of the others? I won't believe Roma until I see it. The Favourite seems too divisive. ASIB looks like a clusterfuck. Black Panther is Marvel. Vice is still a wild card, but seems even more divisive than anything else at first glance. To be honest, I'm kinda seeing First Reformed sneaking in among a lot of splits. Ah, who am I kidding, no chance of that. I'm gonna... oh boy. I'm siding with the clusterfuck. ASIB for me. I have nothing, guys. I legit have no clue at this point. It's funny though, the only thing you can say negative about Black Panther is that it is Marvel.
|
|
Zeb31
Based
Bernardo is not believing que vous êtes come to bing bing avec nous
Posts: 2,557
Likes: 3,794
|
Post by Zeb31 on Dec 2, 2018 2:36:42 GMT
I really get the sense that The Favourite will be less popular than we expected, while I'm starting to feel like Roma has more and more of a chance. Tough to chose between that and ASIB.
Edit: Yeah not a single pundit on GoldDerby is currently predicting The Favourite to win. I'm surprised it's still so popular here.
GoldDerby really isn't the be all and end all of predictions. I mean a lot of them still think Green Book is going to win. I mean, we can talk stats, reviews and screening buzz all we want, but at the end of the day awards prognostication is just a guessing game, not an exact science, especially this far out when we don't even have Globe nods to go off of. We're all just trying to predict what boxes 7,000 people will see fit to tick, and there's only so much math you can apply to that. Some of the big-name pundits have the advantage of interacting with a small sample of those 7,000 voters, but tbh there are users here with better insight and sharper instincts than a lot of the folks who actually get paid to do this.
|
|
|
Post by Martin Stett on Dec 2, 2018 3:09:00 GMT
This is wide open. I'm moving off of Black Klansman, my faith is wavering. It still seems like the safest bet as an "Oscar type movie" that isn't from a director that won BP with his last film, and isn't a movie about race as directed by a white guy. But what of the others? I won't believe Roma until I see it. The Favourite seems too divisive. ASIB looks like a clusterfuck. Black Panther is Marvel. Vice is still a wild card, but seems even more divisive than anything else at first glance. To be honest, I'm kinda seeing First Reformed sneaking in among a lot of splits. Ah, who am I kidding, no chance of that. I'm gonna... oh boy. I'm siding with the clusterfuck. ASIB for me. I have nothing, guys. I legit have no clue at this point. It's funny though, the only thing you can say negative about Black Panther is that it is Marvel. I haven't seen it, but I assume that it isn't a movie in its own right, but actually just another episode in the Marvelverse that doesn't have a beginning (because it happened in the last movie!) and doesn't have an ending (because finishing an arc can't happen when he's supposed to be in the next movie!), and is thus sure to piss off anyone who gives a crap about decent writing. And yeah, I'll watch the movie at some point. Marvel is decent enough as fluff (sometimes). I just doubt that something in the Marvel brand can win if it is part of the Marvel formula. I pray that BP is different, but I doubt it.
|
|
|
Post by mikediastavrone96 on Dec 2, 2018 3:56:10 GMT
I legit have no clue at this point. It's funny though, the only thing you can say negative about Black Panther is that it is Marvel. I haven't seen it, but I assume that it isn't a movie in its own right, but actually just another episode in the Marvelverse that doesn't have a beginning (because it happened in the last movie!) and doesn't have an ending (because finishing an arc can't happen when he's supposed to be in the next movie!), and is thus sure to piss off anyone who gives a crap about decent writing. And yeah, I'll watch the movie at some point. Marvel is decent enough as fluff (sometimes). I just doubt that something in the Marvel brand can win if it is part of the Marvel formula. I pray that BP is different, but I doubt it. You might be pleasantly surprised by Black Panther. Since the setting of Wakanda in the Marvel universe is concealed from the outside world, the movie is pretty self-contained and doesn't overly rely on either callbacks to past films in the series nor transparent set-up for future installments. And with it self-contained to its own world, there's actual room for a character arc - and I don't mean a fake character arc like Iron Man 3 where we know there's no way he can be truly finished since we already saw the previews for the next one - and meaningful plot progression. Black Panther might be the only time in the MCU where more time was put into crafting its story than in its effects, which are wonky as hell and very obviously could have used a few more months if Disney didn't force its VFX teams to cram so much to meet deadlines.
|
|
|
Post by jimmalone on Dec 2, 2018 13:36:32 GMT
I think I limit it to three movies at this point: A Star is Born If Beale Street Could Talk Roma
I haven't seen any of those. Roma looks fantastic, but maybe hasn't such a mass appeal and I still think it's an issue that it's a netflix movie. Barry Jenkins won with hist last movie and I don't see him win again.
So that leaves me with A Star is Born.
|
|
Javi
Badass
Posts: 1,539
Likes: 1,629
|
Post by Javi on Dec 2, 2018 14:10:09 GMT
I'm thinking Roma.
It looks set to win the Best Director Oscar... something that no foreign-language movie has ever accomplished before. And being a strong Director frontrunner makes you an automatic threat to win Best Picture.
So far critics couldn't care less about the Netflix controversy... it swept NYFCC with ease. Let's see what LAFCA and NSFC do but things are looking good there.
And I think it will win DGA, which usually means "Best Picture". BAFTAs could be very kind to it. Only downside might be the Golden Globes since it is ineligible there.
It would be a historic win and not an easy one but the time feels "right".
|
|
|
Post by wilcinema on Dec 2, 2018 22:19:41 GMT
I'm thinking Roma. It looks set to win the Best Director Oscar... something that no foreign-language movie has ever accomplished before. And being a strong Director frontrunner makes you an automatic threat to win Best Picture. So far critics couldn't care less about the Netflix controversy... it swept NYFCC with ease. Let's see what LAFCA and NSFC do but things are looking good there. And I think it will win DGA, which usually means "Best Picture". BAFTAs could be very kind to it. Only downside might be the Golden Globes since it is ineligible there. It would be a historic win and not an easy one but the time feels "right". DGA means Best Director, not Best Picture. The Revenant and La La Land are two very recent examples.
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Dec 2, 2018 22:22:27 GMT
It would shock me to see best picture to a foreign movie with no box office after that silly popular movie controversy.
|
|
Javi
Badass
Posts: 1,539
Likes: 1,629
|
Post by Javi on Dec 2, 2018 22:37:04 GMT
I'm thinking Roma. It looks set to win the Best Director Oscar... something that no foreign-language movie has ever accomplished before. And being a strong Director frontrunner makes you an automatic threat to win Best Picture. So far critics couldn't care less about the Netflix controversy... it swept NYFCC with ease. Let's see what LAFCA and NSFC do but things are looking good there. And I think it will win DGA, which usually means "Best Picture". BAFTAs could be very kind to it. Only downside might be the Golden Globes since it is ineligible there. It would be a historic win and not an easy one but the time feels "right". DGA means Best Director, not Best Picture. The Revenant and La La Land are two very recent examples. Yes, it technically means that but there's a stronger correlation between DGA and the Best Picture Oscar than between PGA and the BP Oscar. Doesn't always work out though.
|
|
The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
Posts: 1,155
Likes: 552
|
Post by The-Havok on Dec 4, 2018 18:36:02 GMT
LMAO at The Favorite.
Black Panther isn't winning
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Dec 4, 2018 18:38:26 GMT
Sticking with The Favourite.
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Dec 10, 2018 5:03:43 GMT
Wow. A 3 way tie? D'oh. It really is anybody's guess at this point. It will be funny if Black Panther wins best picture. Ha ha. Seriously, after that Shape of Water win, anything is possible.
|
|