Predict the snubs

None. Some actors won’t be nominated which is fine and doesn’t make it a “snub.”

Claire Foy.

Glenn Close. Call it irrational, but it's a gut feeling.

Cooper for ASIB ala Affleck.
Glenn Close misses. 
Black Panther shutout. 

LOL

But when have Close and Cooper ever been snubbed? They are in the group of artists who get nominated for who they are. Affleck had a horrible reputation in Hollywood. At minimum, Black Panther will get some technical mentions.

To be fair, Collette's last Oscar nomination was for a horror film and last year saw both a horror satire and a fantasy love story about an aquatic god get lauded by them. The makeup of the Academy's tastes is changing, and if Collette gains momentum with the critics and score with one of the big industry precursors, it's not unreasonable that she can get in on passion-voting. I don't know if I can envision her winning, but I can definitely see her nominated, especially as the film itself is more of a meditation on family grief than a straight-up scare-fest.

Hereditary has made almost $80 million on a $10 million budget, making it A24's most financially successful film. That's the sort of thing that will appeal very much to PGA (I'm predicting it to be a potential spoiler contender there), and it seems to have enough staying power to linger throughout the awards conversation. Its biggest hurdle wasn't really its genre conventions but its early release date; Collette has done a fine job of clinging to the conversation long enough that it's beginning to pay off with critics' mentions. I definitely expect her to make BFCA and I think she could definitely secure a spot at the Globes (they love her) and she's definitely the sort of left-field passion pick who can nab a SAG nod. And again, I think that even though it is a horror film, it has all of the trappings of a family drama, and a very actor-focused one at that, and I can see that appealing to voters enough to get her in.

Right now, I have her sixth in line but with room to rise, especially if other contenders flag.

I think First Reformed is probably in for Screenplay and Actor at this point, so this isn't entirely outside the realm of possibility. And I think if it somehow winds up getting a Picture nod, combined with a potential critical sweep, Ethan Hawke might pose a serious challenge to Cooper, who seems to be particularly campaigning for Director rather than Actor.