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Post by bob-coppola on Nov 8, 2018 5:05:53 GMT
One thing that makes (imo) the Julianne Moore's comparison not very apt: Moore had a much higher profile when she won. Just on 2014, the year she won, she got the Palme d'Or in Cannes and people were already hailing her as an overdue actress, she had a meaty part in The Hunger Games - one of the most relevant franchises of the decade -, was in a profitable Liam Neeson action flick and had the Seventh Son (which was very, very bad, but worked in the sense of the "looks how bad she's here, while she's just so good in this Oscar vehicle" narrative). Two years earlier, she had the very hyped Game Change, and go back two more years and she was snubbed for The Kids Are All Right.
Moore was constantly in the public eye, in a way Close hasn't been in years. Close's last Oscar nod was in early in the decade for a critically panned movie. Her last nod before that was on the 80's. Since than, the only thing she's done that was actually a conversation was Damages and 101 Dalmatians.
Also, Still Alice was a bigger player than The Wife will probably be. Granted, it only got one nod, but it was a threat for a BSA nod for Stewart and an Adapted Screenplay filler nom also. The Wife's screenplay won't go anywhere, and the only people who think Pryce has a chance are the ones who really want Close to happen. Also, Still Alice's director had the ASL angle in the same season Redmayne won for playing Stephen Hawking, which the helmer of The Wife won't have.
I'm not counting out on Close. She has the raves and the overdue narrative. I highly doubt she'll win, but she's a threat for a nod. The thing is: she's not safe, not as safe as some would like to think. People point Moore out as a precedente because they're both overdue actresses for small Sony Pictures Classics dramas, but there's a huge difference to where both of them stood come awards season.
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Post by wilcinema on Nov 9, 2018 15:42:43 GMT
The main problem for Close is that she will have at least two competitors starring in Best Picture nominees (Gaga and Colman), she might face an extremely popular and beloved actress (Davis), a potential critical darling (McCarthy), and possibly the most high-profile actress in Hollywood (Kidman). Julianne Moore faced two former winners (Witherspoon and Cotillard) and two first-time nominees with zero traction (Jones and Pike).
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Nov 12, 2018 3:40:08 GMT
Gaga Coleman Kidman Jones Davis
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Post by Deleted on Nov 24, 2018 1:25:37 GMT
I can't get on the Colman train - at least not yet - especially since she insisted on going Leading over her much better-known Oscar-winning co-stars. She would have been a sure thing in Supporting, but in Leading? It seems to me like Brenda Blethyn 1996 déjà vu. Close has been quiet on the campaign trail because she's been performing off-Broadway to rave reviews, but she's about to get the "Living Legend" treatment from both the Palm Springs and Santa Barbara Film Festivals - hugely elaborate schmoozing events chock-full of Oscar voters and A-Listers. There's also her Gala Salute from the Museum of the Moving Image in NYC. I don't understand the insistence from you guys on here that she isn't winning - or that she won't even be nominated.
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Post by stephen on Nov 24, 2018 5:09:02 GMT
I can't get on the Colman train - at least not yet - especially since she insisted on going Leading over her much better-known Oscar-winning co-stars. She would have been a sure thing in Supporting, but in Leading? It seems to me like Brenda Blethyn 1996 déjà vu. Close has been quiet on the campaign trail because she's been performing off-Broadway to rave reviews, but she's about to get the "Living Legend" treatment from both the Palm Springs and Santa Barbara Film Festivals - hugely elaborate schmoozing events chock-full of Oscar voters and A-Listers. There's also her Gala Salute from the Museum of the Moving Image in NYC. I don't understand the insistence from you guys on here that she isn't winning - or that she won't even be nominated. Colman is a much bigger star than Blethyn was back then (three BAFTAs, a Golden Globe, an Emmy nomination, etc.), and The Favourite is poised to be a much bigger deal than Secrets & Lies was. She's also got The Crown on her side as giving her massive profile, and Fox Searchlight has wisely frontloaded their campaign with Weisz and Stone to get tongues wagging about the film until Colman finishes shooting, and then they roll her out at peak voting times. Colman is an immensely likable interviewee; she charms and cajoles at Q&As and if her awards speeches are any indication, her lovability will just be undeniable. Close may have the perceived "overdue" narrative, but her film is mighty weak aside from her (Pryce is looking unlikelier by the day, and it's probably not breaking into Adapted Screenplay). She's got an early start going, but that's largely due to Hollywood Film Awards being bought by studios and her film being indie eligible, whereas most of her competition wasn't ( The Favourite couldn't qualify at ISA because of foreign backers, and most of her other competition are in studio films). But this isn't a Julianne Moore in 2014 situation; Close has to contend with a much larger swath of raved competition, many of whom have stronger films overall, and the Academy hasn't really given much of a shit about Close in the past. They had their chance to reward her in 2011 for her comeback passion project of three decades, and they didn't, instead opting to give her chief career rival her third Oscar. Close has respect and a veteran's status, but that doesn't always make much of a difference.
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Nov 24, 2018 11:41:50 GMT
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Glenn Close: The Wife Olivia Colman: The Favourite Viola Davis: Widows Lady Gaga: A Star is Born Melissa McCarthy: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
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Post by wilcinema on Nov 24, 2018 11:45:45 GMT
Olivia Colman is the new Glenda Jackson. Immensely charming. She's getting rave reviews for The Favourite and FSL is getting her magazine and newspaper interviews and profiles. She's in it to win it and she's backed by the best Oscar studio in the business.
By the way, I told you that Emily Blunt was a possibility and now I predict her for Globe, BAFTA and SAG. Let's see what the Academy decides to do.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 24, 2018 14:33:55 GMT
Olivia Colman is the new Glenda Jackson. You lost me there. And I like Colman.
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Post by wilcinema on Nov 24, 2018 19:01:15 GMT
Olivia Colman is the new Glenda Jackson. You lost me there. And I like Colman. It was a hyperbole, but you know what I mean. The Academy usually loves these kinds of British actresses. I still don't predict her to win (for some reason, I'm back to predicting Glenn) but she's the main contender.
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Post by bob-coppola on Nov 25, 2018 1:30:53 GMT
Looking at where things stand right now, I think McCarthy will be the snub, not Close. Close and Collette both made it to the ISA and Gotham and are poised to win the trophies, which aren't exactly major and don't really set the tone of the season, but it shows that there's people backing those two up and give them a very needed breathe. I don't think it's enough to win an Oscar, but sometimes passion is all it takes to give a great performance in a weird/small movie a push to a nod.
On the other hand, it might not mean anything, but it could be very telling that both awards bodies saw CYEFM? and liked it enough to nominate Grant, but snubbed McCarthy over Regina Hall and her small movie, and other wildcards. Now that we're past the fall festival season where everyone gets career-best raves for showing up, it begs the question: is McCarthy really undeniable just for handing us a dramatic turn? I'm yet to watch her movie, but the current outcomes cast an uncertain light on her chances.
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Post by stephen on Nov 25, 2018 2:14:36 GMT
Looking at where things stand right now, I think McCarthy will be the snub, not Close. Close and Collette both made it to the ISA and Gotham and are poised to win the trophies, which aren't exactly major and don't really set the tone of the season, but it shows that there's people backing those two up and give them a very needed breathe. I don't think it's enough to win an Oscar, but sometimes passion is all it takes to give a great performance in a weird/small movie a push to a nod. On the other hand, it might not mean anything, but it could be very telling that both awards bodies saw CYEFM? and liked it enough to nominate Grant, but snubbed McCarthy over Regina Hall and her small movie, and other wildcards. Now that we're past the fall festival season where everyone gets career-best raves for showing up, it begs the question: is McCarthy really undeniable just for handing us a dramatic turn? I'm yet to watch her movie, but the current outcomes cast an uncertain light on her chances. I wouldn't really be so quick to dismiss McCarthy. She has a strong studio, even if it also has Colman as their chief horse in the race, and if Grant is as big a threat as he seems, McCarthy benefits from that as it ensures people see her film and performance. It's not that surprising she missed at ISA; they're notoriously stingy against "big Hollywood," and McCarthy represents that (they famously snubbed Clooney in 2011 despite loving The Descendants). Plus there is an utter smorgasbord of indie actress choices for them to pick, and The Wife is much more their speed anyway (tiny indie, early screener, etc.). The Gotham snub is a bit weird, but I think people are making too much of a big deal over it for now. McCarthy can very easily make up ground if she scores a critical prize or just features in runner-up slots throughout the season. I also wouldn't be surprised if there's still a bit of bias against an actress more known for comedy transitioning into drama for the first time.
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wattsnew
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Post by wattsnew on Nov 25, 2018 21:24:30 GMT
People still doubting Close. :lol: She will sweep every critics award, mark my words!
1. Glenn Close 2. Olivia Colman 3. Lady Gaga 4. Melissa McCarthy 5. Emily Blunt (don't count her out yet..)
6. Viola Davis 7. Saoirse Ronan
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jakob
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Post by jakob on Nov 25, 2018 23:00:27 GMT
Yalitza Apricio Emily Blunt Olivia Colman Lady Gaga Melissa McCarthy
I am VERY confident in this.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 26, 2018 5:52:51 GMT
Yalitza Apricio Emily Blunt Olivia Colman Lady Gaga Melissa McCarthy I am VERY confident in this. I am VERY confident you are out of your damn mind.
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jakob
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Post by jakob on Nov 26, 2018 7:35:57 GMT
Yalitza Apricio Emily Blunt Olivia Colman Lady Gaga Melissa McCarthy I am VERY confident in this. I am VERY confident you are out of your damn mind. That may be true, but I am absolutely not confident in Davis or Close, and Blunt will get in. Aparicio is the lead in a BP front runner and will get loads of critics support. I just feel like Close will be forgotten and she will end up just winning an Honorary Oscar for her career and Davis’ film isn’t going to appeal to enough voters.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 26, 2018 8:20:51 GMT
I am VERY confident you are out of your damn mind. That may be true, but I am absolutely not confident in Davis or Close, and Blunt will get in. Aparicio is the lead in a BP front runner and will get loads of critics support. I just feel like Close will be forgotten and she will end up just winning an Honorary Oscar for her career and Davis’ film isn’t going to appeal to enough voters. I don't think Davis is getting in either, it's more that I feel Close is at least Top 3, but only time will tell .
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Post by Deleted on Dec 5, 2018 0:16:32 GMT
1. Glenn Close, The Wife 2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born 3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite 4. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns 5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
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Post by cinemagirl16 on Dec 5, 2018 0:40:53 GMT
Yalitza Aparicio Glenn Close Olivia Colman Lady Gaga
Elsie Fisher is the final pick for me and a total wildcard... it'll likely be Melissa McCarthy or Emily Blunt instead.
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Post by DeepArcher on Dec 5, 2018 1:31:31 GMT
Changing what I said a month and a half ago. Currently thinking it'll be: Blunt, Collette, Colman, Gaga, and McCarthy.
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Dec 8, 2018 11:25:23 GMT
This is my updated Best Actress Prediciton:
Emily Blunt: Mary Poppins Returns Glenn Close: The Wife Olivia Colman: The Favourite Lady Gaga: A Star is Born Melissa McCarthy: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
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Post by Allenism on Dec 8, 2018 15:19:14 GMT
Colman Close Gaga McCarthy Aparicio
Alt: Blunt
I think Kidman and Davis are on the bubble but the buzz for their respective films has waned. Collette is still a wild card but the odds are stacked mightily in her disfavor. Blunt has a very strong narrative behind her, but I can also see the Academy gifting Roma all of their love with a nom for Aparicio as the bow on top.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Dec 9, 2018 1:30:09 GMT
Olivia Colman Lady Gaga Emily Blunt Melissa McCarthy Nicole Kidman
HM: Yalitza Aparicio, Glenn Close, Toni Collette
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Post by stabcaesar on Dec 9, 2018 16:10:27 GMT
Emily Blunt Olivia Colman Glenn Close Lady Gaga
McCarthy, Aparicio, Kidman, Collette are fighting for the last spot.
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Post by quetee on Dec 9, 2018 20:16:59 GMT
Ugh. Blunt getting Oscar nod for Mary Poppins seems so wrong.
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