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Post by wilcinema on Oct 17, 2018 10:06:44 GMT
Okay, this is again a super stacked category this year. Who do you think is going to be nominated?
1. Lady Gaga - A Star Is Born: Star power, popstar-turned-actress in a Best Picture frontrunner, for what is considered a powerful performance. I'm not sure she'll win, but she's a lock for a nomination. 2. Glenn Close - The Wife: The overdue veteran. The movie is what it is, but this year the narrative for her seems to be stronger than usual. Nomination very likely. 3. Viola Davis - Widows: One of the most beloved actresses in the business in a potential box-office hit. If she gets the nod (and I'm not betting against her), she will become Lady Gaga's monster opponent for the Oscar gold. They just want to give her that Best Actress statue. 4. Olivia Colman - The Favourite: I think it all boils down to how well the movie is received by the critics and the industry. If it lands well on the awards planet (which I'm predicting), you can bet your asses she will be a force to be reckoned with. 5. Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me: She's getting raves for her performance and she's an Oscar nominee, so the biggest hurdle is already overcome. She's a respected actress who's shown range and talent in both comedy and drama.
Potential spoilers:
6. Nicole Kidman - Destroyer: In yet another banner year, Nicole Kidman might steal someone else's thunder if Destroyer is indeed released by the end of the year. 7. Yalitza Aparicio - Roma: It's the same as Colman. If Roma does get the awards traction we all predict it to, she might be the nomination upset we see coming but dare not predict. She's amazing in the movie and a push for a nod might come from critics awards. 8. Toni Collette - Hereditary: A raved performance, one of the most raved of the year actually, but in a psychological horror that doesn't have the social relevance of Get Out. I bet there will be a few critics awards thrown at her, but I'm very pessimistic about her actual Oscar chances. 9. Emily Blunt - Mary Poppins Returns: Just putting it out there. She will be nominated at the Globes and the character is legendary. If the movie is the real deal, who knows what can happen. 10. Saoirse Ronan - Mary Queen of Scots: It's a very remote chance but stranger things have happened.
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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 17, 2018 10:29:35 GMT
Gaga to me was better than Cooper or at least she's what sells it - think about for just a second that's the guy who everyone has deemed the male frontrunner for a performance that is lesser than 2 that have already won it before for something similar (Duvall and Bridges - I just don't see it) and she's standing around for much of the film when it becomes the Cooper show (which still won't be enough to beat Mortensen (which has already been seen - wtf!), Bale, Clint I reckon, if I have to take a stand I may as well double down on my bet, fnck it).
That's the same logic here - the race is between Colman and McCarthy and I'm thinking Colman - Davis just won, she's in a genre piece anyway, Gaga I covered above and Close isn't that beloved I'm afraid (haven't seen it, but if you read the reviews there are ominous signs that it's a creaky piece in a year where you don't have to default to a career Oscar).
I think your top 5 is pretty accurate but the heat is the bottom two it seems to me....
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Post by JangoB on Oct 17, 2018 11:11:52 GMT
Same five as you. With Colman winning.
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 17, 2018 12:28:13 GMT
Same five as you. With Colman winning. This.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2018 12:45:54 GMT
1. Glenn Close, The Wife 2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born 3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite 4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? 5. Viola Davis, Widows
I'm guessing it's between Close and Colman for the gold...
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Oct 17, 2018 12:56:39 GMT
So is Colman a thing in lead now, or is it all still up in the air?
I'm predicting Close for the win either way.
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Post by JangoB on Oct 17, 2018 13:00:09 GMT
So is Colman a thing in lead now, or is it all still up in the air? I'm predicting Close for the win either way. Colman is officially lead, while Stone and Weisz are in supporting.
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Oct 17, 2018 13:04:48 GMT
So is Colman a thing in lead now, or is it all still up in the air? I'm predicting Close for the win either way. Colman is officially lead, while Stone and Weisz are in supporting. I see. I musta missed the memo
The potential to have Academy Award Winner Olivia Colman be an actual thing is fantastic, but unless The Favourite is a real awards juggernaut, I think she just took a hit. Although, if she is a clear leading performance, then I am delighted they aren't pulling category fraud.
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Post by wilcinema on Oct 17, 2018 14:03:27 GMT
Colman is officially lead, while Stone and Weisz are in supporting. I see. I musta missed the memo
The potential to have Academy Award Winner Olivia Colman be an actual thing is fantastic, but unless The Favourite is a real awards juggernaut, I think she just took a hit. Although, if she is a clear leading performance, then I am delighted they aren't pulling category fraud.
FSL know what they're doing. Stone in Lead would have meant no win 100%, as she just one. This way, they'll push Colman in lead, with a likely nomination for the movie and a push for Colman's career, and they'll certainly campaign hard for the Supporting category with maybe even 2 actresses from the same movie. Win win situation for them.
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Oct 17, 2018 14:09:57 GMT
I see. I musta missed the memo
The potential to have Academy Award Winner Olivia Colman be an actual thing is fantastic, but unless The Favourite is a real awards juggernaut, I think she just took a hit. Although, if she is a clear leading performance, then I am delighted they aren't pulling category fraud.
FSL know what they're doing. Stone in Lead would have meant no win 100%, as she just one. This way, they'll push Colman in lead, with a likely nomination for the movie and a push for Colman's career, and they'll certainly campaign hard for the Supporting category with maybe even 2 actresses from the same movie. Win win situation for them. I can still see a nomination having a really good shot for sure, just not the win. I'll just happy to see a long time favourite of mine even there on Oscar night, win or lose.
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Post by DeepArcher on Oct 17, 2018 15:02:16 GMT
I'm inclined to say the same as the OP, but honestly after the Destroyer trailer, I'm starting to think there's a ton of potential for Kidman again (she was my prediction to win until the film got kinda lukewarm festival buzz). Okay, the possible internal problems at Annapurna may affect her chances, but honestly I doubt that it'll be much of a factor. Almost everything else is in her favor: she has an ideal release date, a banner year, it's the kind of performance the Academy likes going for in this category (there have already been tons of comparisons to Theron in Monster, not to mention it's arguably in the same vein as McDormand's winning-performance from last year), and maybe most importantly, her popularity has seen an incredible surge in the past few years. I really think she can get in.
Close, on the other hand, is someone I've never been sold on. I literally haven't heard a peep about The Wife aside form this board. Sure, Close is getting raves, but the film itself just hasn't generated enough attention for me to think that it will be Oscar-nominated regardless. Not to mention it had a relatively early, very limited release, and it seems like most voters might just forget about when it comes time to vote in a couple months. There's definitely a good chance that she'll get a Rampling-esque nomination, but as of now, that's the extent of the success I can see for her. I don't really see her as a major contender in this field. It seems like the exact type of performance that gets a random lone nomination for a Golden Globe, which most people react to with a "what the hell is this movie? I've never heard of this", and then doesn't pop up in the awards season again.
So, the current line-up I'm predicting: Colman, Davis, Gaga, Kidman, and McCarthy. Colman is definitely the frontrunner for the win.
Also, I think there's a chance that Felicity Jones in On the Basis of Sex may be more of a threat than people are considering. Ever since the trailer came out I've had a lurking suspicion that that film will have a Hidden Figures-esque last-minute surge in the awards race, and I still think it's possible. I'm not ballsy enough to predict her before there's any word on her performance and the film itself, but I still think it's very possible.
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Post by wilcinema on Oct 17, 2018 15:07:02 GMT
I placed Kidman at 6th only because I wasn't sure about the release date. If it does get released this year, she's in, no doubt. I don't know over whom, but she's in.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Oct 17, 2018 15:42:33 GMT
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born - Massive star power, world-famous pop star turned actress in the BP frontrunner in a role tailor-made for her. Might lose buzz for a win, but is a lock for a nomination and a very likely winner. Is going to be an insufferable campaigner.
Olivia Colman, The Favourite - Would have been a lock in BSA, now it’s a gamble where she’s place. I’m less convinced she’ll win here but it’s not out of the question. She won’t miss out on a nomination.
Viola Davis, Widows - This all lives and dies on the film’s box office and reception. If it’s a hit, she’ll get the credit for its success. They are dying to award for in this category, she won’t get it for this film, but she’ll be considered a worthy nominee. Girl power will only help, and she’s the most brutal campaigner there is.
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? - Her biggest hurdle would be to be acknowledged by the Academy, she already did that with ease in her first mainstream movie role that would normally be overlooked so she’s just waiting to come back. One of the only films with a female director this award season, not only has McCarthy gotten raves but the film as well, and could even sneak into BP. She will have a lot of passion but I think it will be very split. Will get in, but not win.
BATTLING FOR THAT 5TH SPOT…
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer - Distributor in the toilet and is battling with their other contender Layne, which could end up canceling each other out. TRANSFORMATIVE ROLE!!!! Not only role wise but also she’s ugly transformative. Career-best reviews. One of the few female directors in the race. Nicole is at the most popular and visible she’s been since 2001-2002. She has two contenders and is in such a tricky position that she could get a double nom but could also miss out completely. In her favor, she’s a massive campaigner and will also be doing the rounds for BLL so she’ll have 3 big buzzy projects to promote at the same time, which will keep her in the public eye throughout award season.
Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk - Distributor in the toilet and is battling with their other contender Kidman, which could end up canceling each other out. The movie will be watched however and she is the young ingenue they love to award with either a nom or a win. Yes, Gaga and Colman are new to the category too and to most cinema goers/Oscar voters but they’re not newbies like she is. She could end up being a quiet revelation. Her problem is that Gaga, Colman, Davis, McCarthy, Kidman and Close will all have a much bigger platform to campaign and even if she manages to get into the round table she will be eaten alive by this screen hoggers.
Glenn Close, The Wife - I’ve never believed the front-runner status this year. The movie was awful, has a poor release date and it’s such a competitive year with way buzzier and better performances. If she gets in, it will because of a media push and “overdue factor”, not because of merit.
Toni Collette, Hereditary - Many were so convinced she’d get in, especially as she’s A24’s only contender in the category. But I don’t think this is a movie the Academy will even touch, especially given. She’ll get critic awards that will throw her a bone that will lead to nothing, unfortunately. It would certainly be cool and deserved if she could break in!
Felicity Jones - She could get in on paper, looks like the most soulless and unambitious Oscar bait but the late release date. Who wants to watch a RBG biopic on Christmas? Will work the feminist as well as American hero angle and with the current political climate in the US (keep in mind, a lot of voters are not American) could work for it but I think many will see through it and be unaffected. In a weaker year, she could easily get in, not convinced this year.
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma - Is getting more and more buzz. Could be a breakout star but I’m not convinced she’ll get in. Netflix controversies and I don’t think she’ll have many platforms to campaign. Foreign language performances have such a hard time breaking in and I don’t think she stands much of a chance, unfortunately.
I’m not even going to dignify the Ronan and Blunt predictions.
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Post by stephen on Oct 17, 2018 15:46:18 GMT
Aparicio, Colman, Close, Gaga, Davis.
I think McCarthy misses at the end to the passion-voting for Aparicio, as well as FSL pretty much strategically putting all their eggs in the Colman basket. I believe she'll be the one to hit all necessary precursors and miss the nomination at the end. But, NGNG, I wouldn't be surprised if it were Close as well.
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Post by pupdurcs on Oct 17, 2018 16:04:04 GMT
Gaga is locked.
Colman, probably locked.
Can't see Kidman missing, despite predictors being wishy-washy about her odds.This is the type of risk-taking, transformational performance that's a passion pick for actors (already read one notable actor on twitter who saw her movie call her performance a "game-changer"). Sometimes you just need to see a trailer to know something or someone is near locked. Kidman did that today.
The 'Close hasn't got an Oscar' card may have overplayed it's hand.I think she will probably get in, but I was more confident a month ago.
I guess McCarthy, Davis, Aparico (and possibily if she is a late surprise, Blunt) are fighting for the 5th spot. But Close might not be as safe as everyone assumed
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Post by stephen on Oct 17, 2018 16:23:04 GMT
Gaga is locked. Colman, probably locked. Can't see Kidman missing, despite predictors being wishy-washy about her odds.This is the type of risk-taking, transformational performance that's a passion pick for actors (already read one notable actor on twitter who saw her movie call her performance a "game-changer"). Sometimes you just need to see a trailer to know something or someone is near locked. Kidman did that today. The 'Close hasn't got an Oscar' card may have overplayed it's hand.I think she will probably get in, but I was more confident a month ago. I guess McCarthy, Davis, Aparico (and possibily if she is a late surprise, Blunt) are fighting for the 5th spot. But Close might not be as safe as everyone assumed Kidman's got Annapurna, though, which is going through a bad time at the moment. And with Vice and If Beale Street Could Talk on their plate already, I don't get the sense they'll be able to throw out another campaign for Kidman unless they think they can win. And I don't believe they can. Hype is nice to have, but regardless of whatever "game-changer" talk Kidman is getting, that doesn't really mean anything when it comes to industry awards. People have to see the film, which necessitates them actually campaigning for it, and with Annapurna in dire straits, I just don't see that happening. Kidman would have to be the critical favorite to get in, especially as a lone nominee for her film, and I think Colman will be taking the lion's share of the critics' prizes.
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avnermoriarti
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Post by avnermoriarti on Oct 17, 2018 16:27:03 GMT
Gaga Colman McCarthy Close Davis
Something about Aparicio: I just don't see her getting nominated, it's a performance where she barely says anything, not to sound disrespectful but this is nothing compared to what Sandino Moreno did back in the day where the movie relies on her shoulers ( I've seen people tracing a similar path for her ), let's say what's on the screen is more a labor of the editing room, it's a lovely role, for sure, but there are bigger, showier and robust perfomances to chose from, if there's enough passion for Roma I'll say that de Tavira has more chances and of course, every single technical element.
I'll contemplate Ronan and Jones once the reviews are out
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Post by pupdurcs on Oct 17, 2018 16:53:57 GMT
Gaga is locked. Colman, probably locked. Can't see Kidman missing, despite predictors being wishy-washy about her odds.This is the type of risk-taking, transformational performance that's a passion pick for actors (already read one notable actor on twitter who saw her movie call her performance a "game-changer"). Sometimes you just need to see a trailer to know something or someone is near locked. Kidman did that today. The 'Close hasn't got an Oscar' card may have overplayed it's hand.I think she will probably get in, but I was more confident a month ago. I guess McCarthy, Davis, Aparico (and possibily if she is a late surprise, Blunt) are fighting for the 5th spot. But Close might not be as safe as everyone assumed Kidman's got Annapurna, though, which is going through a bad time at the moment. And with Vice and If Beale Street Could Talk on their plate already, I don't get the sense they'll be able to throw out another campaign for Kidman unless they think they can win. And I don't believe they can. Hype is nice to have, but regardless of whatever "game-changer" talk Kidman is getting, that doesn't really mean anything when it comes to industry awards. People have to see the film, which necessitates them actually campaigning for it, and with Annapurna in dire straits, I just don't see that happening. Kidman would have to be the critical favorite to get in, especially as a lone nominee for her film, and I think Colman will be taking the lion's share of the critics' prizes. Kidman is an expert campaigner on her own. She puts in the work, and gets the press attention and coverage for her projects, good or ill. She'll be all over the media this season, not only with Destroyer, but promoting Boy Erased and Aquaman. If there is one actor that doesn't have to worry about drawing attention to any of their work this season, it's Kidman. Annupurna may be downsizing it's film slate, but I have no reason to believe they won't invest hard in campaigns...Oscar nods will salvage some of the negative publicity the company has gotten in recent weeks, and I'm sure they will push hard to get Kidman in the mix (and recoup the investment they paid for to purchase Destroyer in the first place). They'll have money in their war chest for an Oscar campain for Kidman, especially now they don't have to blow 35 million dollars on the Roger Ailes/Fox News movie. SAG love Kidman, which a lot of people don't seem to realise. 10 nominations, some of them from project critics hated or were indifferent to (Grace Of Monaco, The Paperboy and Hemingway and Gellhorn all got her SAG nominations). I cannot see SAG ignoring her in Destroyer.I've already pencilled Kidman in for Globe and SAG nods. It's not that far a step from there to Oscar. With Cate Blanchett currently slumming in things like Oceans 8 and The House With A Clock In It's Walls, Kidman has taken a march as the serious actress du jour of her generation, with dizzying success rate over the last 2 years in a wide variety of projects. Her current hit rate will play a factor in the industry wanting to acknowledge her. She's arguably never been more liked or respected within the industry or by her peers. I actually think double nominations (with Boy Erased) are still seriously on the cards.
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Post by akittystang on Oct 17, 2018 17:53:49 GMT
1. Close 2. Colman 3. Gaga 4. McCarthy 5. Kidman
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Post by ingmarhepburn on Oct 17, 2018 19:49:46 GMT
1. Close 2. Gaga 3. Colman 4. Aparicio 5. McCarthy
I'm not feeling Viola Davis as nominee for Widows, at least for now. Collette is a dark horse, but I'm leaning more towards the snub. Ronan might upset and take the fifth spot, depending on how her film is received. I think it will be this year's The Other Boleyn Girl; could be wrong, though.
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Post by quetee on Oct 17, 2018 20:01:21 GMT
Anyone know if actress from Roma going lead or supporting.
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Post by bob-coppola on Oct 17, 2018 21:33:06 GMT
I think it's a quite weak year. It has many contenders, but almost all have lukewarm, underwhelming aspects. Last year, we had 5 very strong nominees and every single one of them had a solid argument for a win. Until they called McDormand on stage, Ronan, Robbie, Hawkins and Streep all looked like very plausible winners. This year, I don't see a sure-thing like that. But let's work with what we have:
Locks: 1. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (Fox Searchlight): her movie is a BP frontrunner and likely will get BD, screenplay and other acting noms. Colman is a respected character-actress and to have her campaigned on lead shows guts from herself and FSL - that looks very, very good on her. She has raves and a great part. She'll be the face of The Crown very soon. There won't be any backlash and she's a politically-correct person so far. There's no reason not to believe she might not even win for this.
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.): Until very recently, I had many, many doubts. But she got very solid notices and her movie is also a BP top 5 contender. The fact that she's a pop singer, has a disgraced GG win under her belt and her public persona is incredibly polarizing will work against her and, ultimately, keep her from a win, as good as she is in her movie.
Safe: 3. Viola Davis, Widows (Fox): a beloved, respected actress, getting an afterglow nod after sweeping the circuit on the BSA category. Her movie is both cerebral and appealing to the masses, which is good. She has a following and should make good money when it comes out. She's not a threat to a win, but she's safe to get a nod everywhere.
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight): seems like a safe choice, as she's well-liked, her movie was a praised crowd-pleasing and is due to another Oscar nod. But, logistically, she might not be as safe as Davis. FSL's main horse obviously will be Colman and the Favourite gals. They are great at multi-tasking campaign as last year proved, but McCarthy might not get a lot of attention from her distributor.
Hopeful for the #5 spot: 5. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (Annapurna): I had her lower in this ranking, but after the trailer, I believe in her again. Kidman's popularity is on a huge crescendo and she's due another nod after Lion. The reviews for her movie are mixed and her distributor is going through a financial crisis, but she might overcome those things. It's a very transformative, showy role.
6. Toni Collette, Hereditary (A24): we all know that her movie is very, very dark and that's off-putting to many AMPAS voters, but listen: there's a very passionate niche for this movie. Collette got career-best reviews, Hereditary is A24 biggest box-office hit, and she'll be their main contender. She could be the critics' passion pick that breaks throught like Huppert in Elle.
7. Glenn Close, The Wife (Sony Pictures Classics): she's overdue, we all heard that. But honestly? I'm not buying that narrative will really stick. Her movie debuted last year at TIFF to muted reactions, the box-office is very small, and the plot is pretty much "Glenn Close acts very well". Being SPC's priority means shit, just look at what happened to Bening last year after a very talked-about snub in 2016. In a race where pretty much everyone else is in a more attractive, well-recieved movie, I don't see why Close would get special treatment. And, after all, she got 0 attention from AMPAS from 1988 to 2011, so I don't think they're in such a hurry to reward her. Let's see if the "give Close an Oscar" narrative will stick.
8. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (Netflix): Roma is the movie of the year, already. But her role is very quiet as far as I know, and she's pretty much an unknown in a FL movie. I'd love to see that happen and she's got Netflix to back her up, so let's wait and see.
9. Carey Mulligan, Wildlife (IFC): her distributor is small, but they've done a great job keeping this movie in the conversation so far. It debuted on Sundance and it's done Cannes, Telluride, TIFF and NYFF. IFC is giving all they've got for this movie, and the last time they did that was for BP runner-up Boyhood. They're so confident on Mulligan that we can't just not pay attention to what's going on her. I even think she might have the best raves of this bunch. She might be a Spirits/Gotham thing only, but she won't go down without a fight.
10. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (Disney): it's one of the most beloved characters in film history and Blunt is overdue her first nod. Disney has plenty money, but they're not very good at promoting their stuff to awards bodies. Also, it's a Rob Marshall movie, so it might end up only getting tech nods.
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Post by mrimpossible on Oct 17, 2018 21:54:36 GMT
I'd replace Ronan with Mulligan as 10th. She's getting career best raves for Wildlife.
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Post by stephen on Oct 17, 2018 23:56:23 GMT
Kidman's got Annapurna, though, which is going through a bad time at the moment. And with Vice and If Beale Street Could Talk on their plate already, I don't get the sense they'll be able to throw out another campaign for Kidman unless they think they can win. And I don't believe they can. Hype is nice to have, but regardless of whatever "game-changer" talk Kidman is getting, that doesn't really mean anything when it comes to industry awards. People have to see the film, which necessitates them actually campaigning for it, and with Annapurna in dire straits, I just don't see that happening. Kidman would have to be the critical favorite to get in, especially as a lone nominee for her film, and I think Colman will be taking the lion's share of the critics' prizes. I didn't even know she was in Aquaman. #themoreyouknow I think if she's going to be on the circuit and if her campaigning works, it'll likely favor her more Oscar-friendly role in Boy Erased, in a category that is far easier to squeeze into. Kidman in Destroyer would be up against a much stronger cadre of performances: Colman, Close, Gaga, Aparicio, McCarthy, Davis, with potential critical passion-picks like Collette and Kiki Layne or late-season spoilers like Blunt and Ronan hovering in the background. Kidman would have to overcome her film's genre conventions with a flagging studio behind her and hope that some of those performances fail at the final stretch, and unfortunately, the top six I listed are looking pretty rock-steady at the moment. Obviously someone has to miss out, and my gut says McCarthy loses her spot to Aparicio due to Roma passion, but I could also conceive of Close missing out because her film has so little staying power that her perceived "overdue" narrative gets lost in the shuffle of louder, bolder performances. I'm not saying Kidman can't get in for this, but her work is definitely cut out for her to get in, and she would need the critics behind her, because of how unfriendly the role/film is, regardless of any sort of "actorly transformation." Charlize Theron (who everyone keeps drawing comparisons towards) damn near swept the critics' prizes in '03. Kidman would need to do the same. No, I'd be willing to bet that any love that Kidman gets on the campaign trail will go to her Boy Erased turn. People might retroactively look back on the year and think she should've gotten in for Destroyer, but evaluating the landscape of the Oscar race and knowing what appeals to voters generally is key.
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Post by Mattsby on Oct 18, 2018 0:27:46 GMT
Lady Gaga Melissa McCarthy Olivia Colman Saoirsa Ronan Viola Davis or Kidman
I think Gaga is winning right now unless McCarthy dominates the critics prizes and takes over. But it helps Colman that she has the later release, and if the Academy goes big for The Favourite (likely) then she's a threat. Weisz/Stone should both make Supp or maybe split-votes casts them out? Having said that my predix right now are Clint, Gaga, Ali, and Emma Stone......
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