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Post by stephen on Oct 25, 2018 16:39:58 GMT
Well, Hoult can happen, but as Zeb said, if Elliott is being cannibalized by Gaga and Cooper, Hoult has an even worse situation with The Favourite. The make-it-or-break-it for Hoult is Golden Globe and especially SAG. If he makes it there, then yes, but honestly I won't get my hopes to high.
And I don't buy two-time Academy Award winner Mahershala Ali just yet. He's probably a co-lead and he literally just won. It's a weird race for Supporting Actor this year.
My money is still on Elliott, as baffling a win as it would be.
I never said that Hoult would win the Oscar. I think he might have a shot at taking BAFTA, if The Favourite hits big with them (as I suspect it will), and I think he is a sleeper choice for a nomination. The kid's been everywhere the last few years, had ripe roles in high-profile films, and he's been poised for a breakout for some time. And by all accounts he has an immensely showy, acid-tongued role that they just adore. I should also point out that All About Eve comparisons abound with this film, and remember that the one person who won from that female-driven masterclass was the sole male nominee, and unlike Stone and Weisz, Hoult has no internal competition to split support with. If they love the film, he could easily ride that wave. I don't think he necessarily needs a Globe nomination, but obviously SAG would be a crucial boon. I just don't understand why people are sleeping on him, as everyone who has seen the film has praised him. If the genders were reversed, as I've said, he'd be a surefire coattail nominee in Supporting Actress, and even though the ladies are getting strong raves and more focus, he's not exactly chopped liver and if they love the film, they'll vote him as the supporting actor candidate from the movie. Elliott's not even being cannibalized by Gaga and Cooper, either. His individual raves aren't on their level, but they don't necessarily need to be. He's not competing against them. Now I do think if he wins, that hurts rather than helps Gaga because I don't see them giving that movie three acting Oscars.
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Oct 25, 2018 17:36:38 GMT
Well yeah, me too, but I've prepared myself for this horrible moment already, so I'll hopefully cope. I personally would love to live in a world where Sam Elliott is an Academy Award-winning actor, but this would be Christopher Plummer 2.0 for me. He's not nearly as dire as Plummer was in 2011, but it really is kinda the bare minimum being rewarded here, where Elliott shows up, says some meaningful platitude and curses a lot, then leaves thirty seconds later. I have a huge downer on Plummer's win too, but Elliot would actually be a worse winner for me. Plummer did very little, very blandly and forgettably, which isn't as bad as Elliot doing very little, really badly. I just hope the crazy hype will wear off of his film enough that he doesn't win, and maybe even misses the nomination altogether.
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Post by stephen on Oct 25, 2018 17:40:28 GMT
I personally would love to live in a world where Sam Elliott is an Academy Award-winning actor, but this would be Christopher Plummer 2.0 for me. He's not nearly as dire as Plummer was in 2011, but it really is kinda the bare minimum being rewarded here, where Elliott shows up, says some meaningful platitude and curses a lot, then leaves thirty seconds later. I have a huge downer on Plummer's win too, but Elliot would actually be a worse winner for me. Plummer did very little, very blandly and forgettably, which isn't as bad as Elliot doing very little, really badly. I just hope the crazy hype will wear off of his film enough that he doesn't win, and maybe even misses the nomination altogether. If only voters bothered to watch Game Night.
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Post by FrancescoAbides on Oct 26, 2018 0:11:28 GMT
I have a huge downer on Plummer's win too, but Elliot would actually be a worse winner for me. Plummer did very little, very blandly and forgettably, which isn't as bad as Elliot doing very little, really badly. I just hope the crazy hype will wear off of his film enough that he doesn't win, and maybe even misses the nomination altogether. If only voters bothered to watch Game Night. All aboard the Billy Magnussen hype train?
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Post by stephen on Oct 26, 2018 0:14:25 GMT
If only voters bothered to watch Game Night. All aboard the Billy Magnussen hype train? Plemons (and Sharon Horgan), bruh. But Magnussen was a hoot.
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Post by wilcinema on Oct 27, 2018 12:28:28 GMT
If only voters bothered to watch Game Night. All aboard the Billy Magnussen hype train? "Oh, because your wife left you."
I'm still laughing.
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Post by skyfallen on Nov 1, 2018 22:16:53 GMT
I'd much prefer Timothee to win an oscar over Sam Elliot, but I think Sam has the "career" vote, the "comeback" vote, he is well respected as an actor, his porformance provides a lot of emotional depth to the film, and I think ASIB is gonna be a Best Picture nominee.... all of which makes him the frontrunner atm.
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Post by fiosnasiob on Dec 9, 2018 11:52:54 GMT
I'm not really following the race this year so what are people thinking about it now in December ? Richard E. Grant is also starting to win some awards now...could he be a treat to Ali ? I haven't seen Chalamet's movie but out of the others 3 (Ali, Grant and Elliott) Ali is the best performance BUT he's also co-lead and has so much more room/moments to shine than say, Grant for example. I don't think Ali deserved his first oscar (he wasn't the best or even second best supporting performance in his own movie) and the idea of him joining Denzel as the only black/Afro American actor with 2 oscars is...not good to me, it's waaaaay to early for him. Team Grant for sure !
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Post by sirjeremy on Dec 14, 2018 13:52:15 GMT
This is the category that's kind to veteran actors, often ridiculously so, so I think Elliott will win here and the Globe snub won't affect him. I do think Ali has an OK chance of winning, though, especially as it's unlikely the film will win in any other category. It might come down to which of the two will campaign more heavily than the other.
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Post by stephen on Dec 14, 2018 13:54:15 GMT
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Post by wilcinema on Dec 14, 2018 13:54:23 GMT
I still think he won't. Richard E. Grant is charming the Oscar circuit and I think he'll be the one.
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Post by sirjeremy on Dec 14, 2018 14:21:08 GMT
I still think he won't. Richard E. Grant is charming the Oscar circuit and I think he'll be the one. The problem for him is that there's no or little passion for his film.
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Post by wilcinema on Dec 14, 2018 14:29:08 GMT
I still think he won't. Richard E. Grant is charming the Oscar circuit and I think he'll be the one. The problem for him is that there's no or little passion for his film. Every contender has weaknesses in that category this year.
Ali: won two years ago; is by many considered a co-lead; we still need to see how well the movie lands with the Academy. Elliott: his screentime is very short, and the performance is not raved or anything like that; he's no considered overdue for a win. Grant: the movie is small but his co-star will be nominated too, with a potential Adapted Screenplay nomination too. Driver: his performance is very good, but most people are unimpressed, because transformational and flashy performances usually win Oscars.
We don't even know who the fifth will be. At this point, with such a weak field, the most logical pick is Grant, at the moment. Christoph Waltz won 2 Oscars in 3 years but his second time the field was entirely composed of previous winners. Judi Dench was very close to getting a second one for Chocolat (she won SAG) but the Academy clearly thought that her previous Oscar for just 10 minutes in Shakespeare In Love was enough for her that time (which is the Ali situation this year).
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