Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Oct 17, 2018 1:42:46 GMT
Only if Merc roots against him again.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Oct 17, 2018 1:44:19 GMT
He can but that's not say he's a lock. It's by far the least competitive acting category. Beautiful Boy is over performing and Chalamet could happen. I think Ali is very comfortable at #2. Rockwell won't win again. Sam Elliot could be a threat.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 17, 2018 1:56:51 GMT
He can. I don't think he will.
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flasuss
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Post by flasuss on Oct 17, 2018 11:18:37 GMT
Nah, Waltz only won because of the very specific circumstance in which he was facing only actors that already had an Oscar.
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Post by wilcinema on Oct 17, 2018 11:26:08 GMT
I think he might, if he does end up in the Supporting category. The trailer makes him look like a true co-lead, though. The only locked nominations I have in Supporting are Chalamet and Elliott. Richard E. Grant is very likely too, especially if McCarthy rides to GG, BFCA and SAG nods.
Other than them, anyone could be there. Driver, Kaluuya, Carell...
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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 17, 2018 11:35:05 GMT
I think he will win actually - very rarely do actor and supporting actors win for the same film and a film winning picture, male and supporting male is practically unheard of (The Best Years Of Our Lives).
But that is what you are looking at this year imo - unless the unseen films are huge deals (The Mule and Vice) that could change things.
But Green Book has nothing in it that's a drawback and everything about it is a plus. Social message, acting, original film (not say you know a 4th film version of a story, sarcasm), it's going to be a big hit, palpable presentation/style. Reviews are all on its side and they will get better when it hits newspapers and with no discernible backlash either.
It's the clear frontrunner and no one has presented a coherent argument against it or for anything else - Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor are there for the taking......again excepting The Mule and Vice.
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Post by JangoB on Oct 17, 2018 11:35:12 GMT
He totally can. I'm predicting him at the moment.
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Post by wilcinema on Oct 17, 2018 14:00:44 GMT
I think he will win actually - very rarely do actor and supporting actors win for the same film and a film winning picture, male and supporting male is practically unheard of (The Best Years Of Our Lives). But that is what you are looking at this year imo - unless the unseen films are huge deals (The Mule and Vice) that could change things. But Green Book has nothing in it that's a drawback and everything about it is a plus. Social message, acting, original film (not say you know a 4th film version of a story, sarcasm), it's going to be a big hit, palpable presentation/style. Reviews are all on its side and they will get better when it hits newspapers and with no discernible backlash either. It's the clear frontrunner and no one has presented a coherent argument against it or for anything else - Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor are there for the taking......again excepting The Mule and Vice. The real problem for Green Book is that it's in the mould of The Help and Hidden Figures, aka harmless crowdpleasers. |
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Post by bob-coppola on Oct 17, 2018 14:26:27 GMT
Sure! BSA looks very weak this year, and Ali is the type of actor that wins twice this prize.
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Post by pupdurcs on Oct 17, 2018 14:30:24 GMT
I think he will win actually - very rarely do actor and supporting actors win for the same film and a film winning picture, male and supporting male is practically unheard of (The Best Years Of Our Lives). But that is what you are looking at this year imo - unless the unseen films are huge deals (The Mule and Vice) that could change things. But Green Book has nothing in it that's a drawback and everything about it is a plus. Social message, acting, original film (not say you know a 4th film version of a story, sarcasm), it's going to be a big hit, palpable presentation/style. Reviews are all on its side and they will get better when it hits newspapers and with no discernible backlash either. It's the clear frontrunner and no one has presented a coherent argument against it or for anything else - Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor are there for the taking......again excepting The Mule and Vice. The real problem for Green Book is that it's in the mould of The Help and Hidden Figures, aka harmless crowdpleasers. Bingo. Green Book is not the type of film that wins best picture anymore. The newer AMPAS membership don't go hard enough for those movies. In 1989 or 2005, maybe. But something like Green Book today gets the harmless crowdpleaser nomination, while something edgier that the critics really went went to bat for (say Blackkklansman or Roma) end up actually winning BP nowadays. Don't think we've had a conventional crowdpleaser BP winner since The King's Speech. Aside from that, yeah I can see Ali winning again. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 17, 2018 14:37:42 GMT
Yeah I don't think that's right actually - "The newer AMPAS membership don't go hard enough for those movies." - oh I wouldn't be so sure, they aren't that progressive  . Green Book is one of only two blockbusters - with Star Is Born - that can win and I'm saying it checks off way more boxes than than the other one - the social message of the film may not appeal to bloggers but I'd say it's right in the comfort zone of the Academy new membership or not. When this hits theaters people are going to be fawning over Viggo and Ali - they are 2 lock nominees and the only 2 male locks where people are going to be raising one while praising the other. Each performance helps the other and generates a lot of talk, no other film this year has that dynamic for males. I'm looking for 3 acting nominees for it - clear favorite for me for BP, doesn't mean it will beat Roma (or the 2 we haven't seen) but leading the pack to me. |
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Post by DeepArcher on Oct 17, 2018 14:49:46 GMT
He's also my current prediction in Supporting Actor ... the other two legitimate contenders I can see at the moment are Chalamet and Kaluuya; the former will undoubtedly be the lone nominee for his film, which overall isn't getting the acclaim that it should, which I think will really hurt his chances; and the latter has a legitimate shot if the campaign is there and he starts to pick up steam, but as of now word on him has been pretty quiet, in terms of awards potential, aside from the raves he got in the film's initial reviews. Ali really feels like the safest bet at the moment, with Green Book bound to be a hit with the Academy, who will probably want to award it somewhere, and just from the trailer it seems that Ali's performance is showy and powerful enough to get him there.
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Post by wilcinema on Oct 17, 2018 14:54:33 GMT
Yeah I don't think that's right actually - "The newer AMPAS membership don't go hard enough for those movies." - oh I wouldn't be so sure, they aren't that progressive . Green Book is one of only two blockbusters - with Star Is Born - that can win and I'm saying it checks off way more boxes than than the other one - the social message of the film may not appeal to bloggers but I'd say it's right in the comfort zone of the Academy new membership or not. When this hits theaters people are going to be fawning over Viggo and Ali - they are 2 lock nominees and the only 2 male locks where people are going to be raising one while praising the other. Each performance helps the other and generates a lot of talk, no other film this year has that dynamic for males. I'm looking for 3 acting nominees for it - clear favorite for me for BP, doesn't mean it will beat Roma (or the 2 we haven't seen) but leading the pack to me. I think it says a lot that its festival run is being incredibly impressive. After the TIFF Audience Awards, it got other Audience Awards and it got a standing ovation at the London Film Festival too, showing that it can be successful in other markets too. What I've read about the movie is that while it's not the edgiest choice in the field, it is funny, entertaining and most of all UPLIFTING. A Star Is Born ends on a downer. We all know that the only way ASIB can win is by playing the superstar card, which they are. |
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Oct 17, 2018 19:58:02 GMT
I think he will win actually - very rarely do actor and supporting actors win for the same film and a film winning picture, male and supporting male is practically unheard of (The Best Years Of Our Lives). But that is what you are looking at this year imo - unless the unseen films are huge deals (The Mule and Vice) that could change things. But Green Book has nothing in it that's a drawback and everything about it is a plus. Social message, acting, original film (not say you know a 4th film version of a story, sarcasm), it's going to be a big hit, palpable presentation/style. Reviews are all on its side and they will get better when it hits newspapers and with no discernible backlash either. It's the clear frontrunner and no one has presented a coherent argument against it or for anything else - Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor are there for the taking......again excepting The Mule and Vice. I think most people aren't predicting Green Book for the win at this point because it's just not acclaimed enough. It's true that reviews can get better than they are currently, but I'm having a hard time imagining it shooting up to 85+ on Metacritic, which is pretty much the required minimum score to win BP nowadays (that may seem like an arbitrary statistic, but it's a consistent enough indicator). Some of the more lukewarm reviews find it too middlebrow and vanilla, and I can see more reviews taking that stance. Obviously middlebrow films win BP all the time, but there has to be a certain level of acclaim in the first place, and I'm not super confident Green Book can achieve that as more reviews are added. I also wouldn't underestimate the possibility of a backlash. The film rides on a social message, true, but I've seen folks online already ripping into it for an apparent "white savior" narrative and handling its social message in a somewhat tone deaf fashion. |
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Oct 21, 2018 9:21:11 GMT
Well yes he can, so far I dont predict him as I think they will go with a veteran like Elliott but its definitely not out of the box.
Especially if Green Book is all that.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Oct 21, 2018 23:24:04 GMT
In all seriousness, though, I don't see why not. Chalamet is a weak frontrunner and could easily be his film's only nomination; Cooper and Gaga are monopolizing the Star is Born buzz, which hurts Elliott; Can You Ever Forgive Me? probably won't be strong enough to take Grant that far; and Annapurna's internal struggles (in addition to Vice's questionable release strategy) leads me to believe that no one is winning for that film. Ali can certainly pull a Christoph Waltz, and Supporting Actor feels like the perfect category to reward Green Book if it goes over well enough to warrant a big 8 win. Which reminds me: I think most people aren't predicting Green Book for the win at this point because it's just not acclaimed enough. It's true that reviews can get better than they are currently, but I'm having a hard time imagining it shooting up to 85+ on Metacritic, which is pretty much the required minimum score to win BP nowadays (that may seem like an arbitrary statistic, but it's a consistent enough indicator). Some of the more lukewarm reviews find it too middlebrow and vanilla, and I can see more reviews taking that stance. Obviously middlebrow films win BP all the time, but there has to be a certain level of acclaim in the first place, and I'm not super confident Green Book can achieve that as more reviews are added. I also wouldn't underestimate the possibility of a backlash. The film rides on a social message, true, but I've seen folks online already ripping into it for an apparent "white savior" narrative and handling its social message in a somewhat tone deaf fashion. I second all of this. It's in the 60s on Metacritic, and like Cake said, while that's not an absolute stat or anything, it does hinder its chances. The white savior criticism also makes it an even easier target than La La Land and Three Billboards, and if those films eventually came up short in the BP race for not being woke enough, rival studios could have a field day with Green Book. The issue to me is that the concept of Oscar bait isn't the same now as it used to be 15 years ago. I've seen Green Book touted as a reverse take on the Driving Miss Daisy formula, but would that actually hold the same weight today that it did then? When was the last time something this middlebrow actually won BP? Darkest Hour, Lion, Hidden Figures, The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game are all traditionally baity projects with weighty subject matter and positive if not ravishing reviews (69-75 on MC), just like Green Book; they all got nominated, but none of them even came close to winning. Spotlight, Moonlight and The Shape of Water all deal with serious subject matter and their wins function as political statements, but they were all massively acclaimed and had more to their narratives than just being topical crowdpleasers. Nominations are one thing, but the current Academy membership doesn't seem to go hard for stuff like Green Book anymore. |
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Post by stephen on Oct 21, 2018 23:45:51 GMT
In all seriousness, though, I don't see why not. Chalamet is a weak frontrunner and could easily be his film's only nomination; Cooper and Gaga are monopolizing the Star is Born buzz, which hurts Elliott; Can You Ever Forgive Me? probably won't be strong enough to take Grant that far; and Annapurna's internal struggles (in addition to Vice's questionable release strategy) leads me to believe that no one is winning for that film. Ali can certainly pull a Christoph Waltz, and Supporting Actor feels like the perfect category to reward Green Book if it goes over well enough to warrant a big 8 win. Which reminds me: I think most people aren't predicting Green Book for the win at this point because it's just not acclaimed enough. It's true that reviews can get better than they are currently, but I'm having a hard time imagining it shooting up to 85+ on Metacritic, which is pretty much the required minimum score to win BP nowadays (that may seem like an arbitrary statistic, but it's a consistent enough indicator). Some of the more lukewarm reviews find it too middlebrow and vanilla, and I can see more reviews taking that stance. Obviously middlebrow films win BP all the time, but there has to be a certain level of acclaim in the first place, and I'm not super confident Green Book can achieve that as more reviews are added. I also wouldn't underestimate the possibility of a backlash. The film rides on a social message, true, but I've seen folks online already ripping into it for an apparent "white savior" narrative and handling its social message in a somewhat tone deaf fashion. I second all of this. It's in the 60s on Metacritic, and like Cake said, while that's not an absolute stat or anything, it does hinder its chances. The white savior criticism also makes it an even easier target than La La Land and Three Billboards, and if those films eventually came up short in the BP race for not being woke enough, rival studios could have a field day with Green Book. The issue to me is that the concept of Oscar bait isn't the same now as it used to be 15 years ago. I've seen Green Book touted as a reverse take on the Driving Miss Daisy formula, but would that actually hold the same weight today that it did then? When was the last time something this middlebrow actually won BP? Darkest Hour, Lion, Hidden Figures, The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game are all traditionally baity projects with weighty subject matter and positive if not ravishing reviews (69-75 on MC), just like Green Book; they all got nominated, but none of them even came close to winning. Spotlight, Moonlight and The Shape of Water all deal with serious subject matter and their wins function as political statements, but they were all massively acclaimed and had more to their narratives than just being topical crowdpleasers. Nominations are one thing, but the current Academy membership doesn't seem to go hard for stuff like Green Book anymore. I agree with pretty much all of this, although I would argue Chalamet's no longer the frontrunner. He might have trouble even getting nominated at this rate. I think Ali could win his second for this, but I wouldn't really call it a Waltz situation because he won against other previous winners and they might want to give someone else their time in the limelight. I think a lot of people are sleeping on Nicholas Hoult for a nomination, by the way. He's a strong bet for a BAFTA nod, carried in by the love they'll likely have for The Favourite, and even though it's the ladies' show, he still has a fair bit of strong ink on his own. If the genders were reversed, he'd be a shoo-in for a supporting actress nomination. |
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Oct 22, 2018 3:26:09 GMT
I agree with pretty much all of this, although I would argue Chalamet's no longer the frontrunner. He might have trouble even getting nominated at this rate. I think Ali could win his second for this, but I wouldn't really call it a Waltz situation because he won against other previous winners and they might want to give someone else their time in the limelight. I think a lot of people are sleeping on Nicholas Hoult for a nomination, by the way. He's a strong bet for a BAFTA nod, carried in by the love they'll likely have for The Favourite, and even though it's the ladies' show, he still has a fair bit of strong ink on his own. If the genders were reversed, he'd be a shoo-in for a supporting actress nomination. All solid points. I might be letting my personal opinion cloud my judgment here, because those clips that they've put out so far... haven't inspired much confidence, but I've been increasingly iffy on Chalamet's chances ever since the Beautiful Boy reviews hit. And now that you mention him, Houlter is definitely in the mix, yeah. He certainly makes more sense at this point than Rockwell and Carell, who I've seen get brought up as possible spoilers. |
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Post by skyfallen on Oct 22, 2018 19:07:14 GMT
I think Sam Elliott has Best Supporting Actor locked up tightly.
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Post by evilbliss on Oct 24, 2018 9:26:43 GMT
I think Sam Elliott has Best Supporting Actor locked up tightly. He was terrible. |
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Oct 25, 2018 13:36:46 GMT
I think Sam Elliott has Best Supporting Actor locked up tightly. He was terrible.  Thank You!
I was starting to think I was the only one who thought this. I hope to god he doesn't win.
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Post by evilbliss on Oct 25, 2018 14:04:47 GMT
Thank You!
I was starting to think I was the only one who thought this. I hope to god he doesn't win.
Win?! I hope he doesn't nominated! |
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Oct 25, 2018 14:34:02 GMT
Thank You!
I was starting to think I was the only one who thought this. I hope to god he doesn't win.
Win?! I hope he doesn't nominated! Well yeah, me too, but I've prepared myself for this horrible moment already, so I'll hopefully cope. |
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Post by stephen on Oct 25, 2018 16:23:14 GMT
Win?! I hope he doesn't nominated! Well yeah, me too, but I've prepared myself for this horrible moment already, so I'll hopefully cope. I personally would love to live in a world where Sam Elliott is an Academy Award-winning actor, but this would be Christopher Plummer 2.0 for me. He's not nearly as dire as Plummer was in 2011, but it really is kinda the bare minimum being rewarded here, where Elliott shows up, says some meaningful platitude and curses a lot, then leaves thirty seconds later. |
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Post by wilcinema on Oct 25, 2018 16:33:34 GMT
In all seriousness, though, I don't see why not. Chalamet is a weak frontrunner and could easily be his film's only nomination; Cooper and Gaga are monopolizing the Star is Born buzz, which hurts Elliott; Can You Ever Forgive Me? probably won't be strong enough to take Grant that far; and Annapurna's internal struggles (in addition to Vice's questionable release strategy) leads me to believe that no one is winning for that film. Ali can certainly pull a Christoph Waltz, and Supporting Actor feels like the perfect category to reward Green Book if it goes over well enough to warrant a big 8 win. Which reminds me: I second all of this. It's in the 60s on Metacritic, and like Cake said, while that's not an absolute stat or anything, it does hinder its chances. The white savior criticism also makes it an even easier target than La La Land and Three Billboards, and if those films eventually came up short in the BP race for not being woke enough, rival studios could have a field day with Green Book. The issue to me is that the concept of Oscar bait isn't the same now as it used to be 15 years ago. I've seen Green Book touted as a reverse take on the Driving Miss Daisy formula, but would that actually hold the same weight today that it did then? When was the last time something this middlebrow actually won BP? Darkest Hour, Lion, Hidden Figures, The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game are all traditionally baity projects with weighty subject matter and positive if not ravishing reviews (69-75 on MC), just like Green Book; they all got nominated, but none of them even came close to winning. Spotlight, Moonlight and The Shape of Water all deal with serious subject matter and their wins function as political statements, but they were all massively acclaimed and had more to their narratives than just being topical crowdpleasers. Nominations are one thing, but the current Academy membership doesn't seem to go hard for stuff like Green Book anymore. I agree with pretty much all of this, although I would argue Chalamet's no longer the frontrunner. He might have trouble even getting nominated at this rate. I think Ali could win his second for this, but I wouldn't really call it a Waltz situation because he won against other previous winners and they might want to give someone else their time in the limelight. I think a lot of people are sleeping on Nicholas Hoult for a nomination, by the way. He's a strong bet for a BAFTA nod, carried in by the love they'll likely have for The Favourite, and even though it's the ladies' show, he still has a fair bit of strong ink on his own. If the genders were reversed, he'd be a shoo-in for a supporting actress nomination. Well, Hoult can happen, but as Zeb said, if Elliott is being cannibalized by Gaga and Cooper, Hoult has an even worse situation with The Favourite. The make-it-or-break-it for Hoult is Golden Globe and especially SAG. If he makes it there, then yes, but honestly I won't get my hopes to high.
And I don't buy two-time Academy Award winner Mahershala Ali just yet. He's probably a co-lead and he literally just won. It's a weird race for Supporting Actor this year.
My money is still on Elliott, as baffling a win as it would be.
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. Green Book is one of only two blockbusters - with Star Is Born - that can win and I'm saying it checks off way more boxes than than the other one - the social message of the film may not appeal to bloggers but I'd say it's right in the comfort zone of the Academy new membership or not.
Thank You!