Your predictions for the Supporting categories?

SUPPORTING ACTOR: It's a bit of a wasteland this year in general. Ali just got a major boost with his film and they often like to give some afterglow love to winners to sort of "cement" their decision. Chalamet seems to be everyone's sure pick for a nod, but his film does seem to be rather tepidly received aside from him, so he might find it tougher than most people think, even though he's by all accounts a co-lead and thus has the screentime (and are we positive he's even running in supporting?). Sam Elliott seems a safe bet right now if his film is the juggernaut everyone expects it to be. Richard E. Grant seems to be Fox Searchlight's horse in the race, and I think if McCarthy also gets in he really rises in profile. Daniel Kaluuya has been drawing a lot of notice, and I think that the constant Chigurh comparisons are a very good sign. Crowe's a possibility, but I'd be more confident if his film were better received and if Hedges were more of a sure thing. In terms of a NGNG, I think McConaughey is a dark horse for White Boy Rick, and I wouldn't be surprised if Michael B. Jordan snuck in as well off the back of a Black Panther BP. So for right now, I'll say... Ali, Chalamet, Elliott, Grant, Kaluuya.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: I'm starting to think that contrary to what we were all thinking, Colman will run as the sole lead for The Favourite, and that FSL will run Stone and Weisz supporting. So I think the two of them will get in. Foy's raves and the "supportive, dutiful wife" role feel like the sort of thing that will appeal to them, so she's comfortable. I think Spacek gets the veteran spot to sort of bolster Redford, Gyllenhaal-in-Crazy Heart-style, and Regina King has the passion behind her. I think Debicki will make a strong case but ultimately miss (unless Widows overperforms in BP/BD). NGNG that Amy Adams actually misses and that Vice doesn't go anywhere. So for this, I'll say Foy, King, Spacek, Stone and Weisz. Of course, if Colman goes supporting she's in.

Actor
Ali - Green Book
Chalamet - Beautiful Boy
Elliott - A Star Is Born
Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Rockwell - Vice

Actress
Adams - Vice
Colman - The Favourite
Foy - First Man
Kidman - Boy Erased
King - If Beale Street Could Talk

I have no idea what's happening with the Favourite girls so this is up in the air, but I feel like Stone and Colman are going to take most of the acting acclaim whichever category they fall in and Weisz will get shut out. Her role doesn't look as showy so I could see it getting passed over.